Toddorts NHL 2011-2012 Season Picks

[toddorts]

Another confirmed goalie, another two picks:

Capitals @ PREDATORS ML +110
Capitals @ Predators UNDER 5.5 -125

Capitals @ Predators

This is another game where I think the books have the wrong team as the favorite. With home ice advantage, and goalies of equal caliber, the Predators should have a slight edge here. So, with plus money being offered on them, I'm taking the Preds. I wouldn't go at all under +110, though. On the total, it's a little safer. I figure this game finishes under about 60% of the time, so I'd take it at even -130. Found a -125 at Sportsbook.com, so I'm pretty happy with that wager.

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Next pick:

SENATORS @ Flames ML +135
Senators @ Flames UNDER 5.5 -125

Senators @ Flames

The Flames do have the advantage in this game, but it's not a big one, and it doesn't justify these odds. Both Anderson and Kiprusoff are good goalies, and the Flames are slightly better against good goaltending, but with the Senators getting +135, there's value here. I would take them at +125 or better. Because of two good goalies, I'm going on the under here on the total. My model has the game staying under about 61% of the time, putting good value on the under at -125. I see a final score of 3-2, one way or the other.

[toddorts]

The Coyotes confirmed their goalie for the night, so two more picks:

COYOTES @ Maple Leafs ML +EV
Coyotes @ Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 +EV

Coyotes @ Maple Leafs

I'm liking this game. I think the lines are completely wrong putting the Leafs as the favorite here. Neither of these goalies are hot stuff, and the Coyotes have much better stats against average goalies. Home ice advantage won't nearly make up for it. I'd take the Coyotes at anything better than -110. On the total, this is an easy call on the over. In fact, that's probably my strongest play of the night. Putting the over at even money with these goalies makes zero sense, in my opinion. I could see this game easily going to 7 or 8 goals.

[toddorts]

Three more picks:

Devils @ BRUINS ML -190
WILD @ Blue Jackets PL -1.5 +250
Wild @ Blue Jackets UNDER 5 +120

Devils @ Bruins

This one really comes down to the use of Hedberg in the net tonight for the Devils against Thomas, a great goalie for the Bruins. While Hedberg isn't really a bad goalie, he's not great, either, and he doesn't compare to Thomas. Combined with the great offense of the Bruins, against the mediocre offense of the Devils, and I think this one is an easy win for the Bruins. Even enough to justify the heavy odds. There just isn't enough value on the total, though, so no play there.

Wild @ Blue Jackets

Loving this game, because I hate Mason so much. Really, the guy is a horrible, horrible goalie. And going up against Backstrom in the other net? No frickin' contest, based on my gut. Based on the pure numbers, which is all that I use in my capping, it's going to be a lot closer than my gut tells me, though. But with the PL way up +250, there's still a lot of value there. On the total, there isn't any value at 90% of the books out there. But, I managed to find one book that was offering a line at 5, with the under heavily pumped up to +120. This is likely to go over 5, but not nearly that likely. There's value here on the under, but only with the line set at 5. No value at the books only offering it at 5.5.

[toddorts]

Well, just as I posted those, another confirmed goalie came through for the Avs. Thus, another pick:

AVALANCHE @ Penguins ML +165

Avalanche @ Penguins

As best I can tell, this game is evenly matched. Yes, the Avs don't have the world's best offense, but Fleury isn't the world's best goalie, either. Varlamov, on the other hand, is pretty good, so he should be able to guard against the Penguins' better offense. In the end, it's just about a toss-up. With the Avs getting +165, I didn't hesitate to take this one. On the total, no value with these odds. I'd take the under if I could get a -105, but there's none to be found.

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A winning day! Hopefully I'm slowly crawling out of this hole. Record for the night was 7-7, +1.08 units.

Record:

30-41-2
42.25%
-6.26 units

[toddorts]

Three picks so far for the day:

Devils @ SABRES ML -170
BLACKHAWKS @ Cancuks ML +110
Blackhawks @ Canucks UNDER 5.5 -105

Devils @ Sabres

Two good goalies, but one offense is far superior to the other. The Devils are really no match for the Sabres, who figure to score 3-4 goals here. The Devils will be held to 1-2, most likely. Because of those numbers, the total is too close to call, so no play there.

Blackhawks @ Canucks

This game is basically a toss-up. The Blackhawks have a slightly better offense, but the Canucks have home ice advantage. Both goalies are pretty good, so no edge there. With plus money being offered on the Blackhawks at +110, I'm taking it. I wouldn't take it at +105, though. On the total, my model gives this one a 55% chance of staying under, so there's decent value at -105. I haven't been hitting the totals very well so far this year, so I figure that's bound to improve soon, as that's usually my strong suit in NHL betting. Here's hoping that it happens tonight.

[toddorts]

Three more picks to close out today's card:

Hurricanes @ CANADIENS PL -1.5 +230
DUCKS @ Kings ML +140
Ducks @ Kings UNDER 5 +105

Hurricanes @ Canadiens

This one is a really close call, but it looks like there's some value on the PL. What makes it questionable is the Canes' goalie Ward, whose pure career numbers make him look spectacularly average, but whose numbers last year were absolutely excellent. If you weight the career numbers as much as I usually do, then he's a detriment to the Canes in this matchup, but it's a close call. There's enough cushion in the +230 number to make it worthwhile I think, but I'm not supremely confident in this one. On the total, there is absolutely no value at 5.5

Ducks @ Kings

I feel much better about this one, where the stats are more clear cut. Both Hiller and Quick have good numbers, and both sides have similar offensive stats against good goalies. With a little home ice advantage, this one evens up making it a coin toss, in my estimation. With the Ducks getting +140 odds, they're the clear play. On the total, even with the line set at 5, the value is on the under. Because of strong goaltending in both nets, this should stay under about 56% of the time.

[toddorts]

Another winning day. Record was 3-3, +1.45 units.

Record:

33-44-2
42.86%
-4.81 units

[toddorts]

Not many confirmed goalies yet for today, so only one play to start with:

Coyotes @ FLYERS ML -165

Coyotes @ Flyers

The Flyers have a lot going for them in this game. To start with, they're on home ice. But it goes much further than that. Bryzgalov is in their net, who hasn't had a great season so far, but his long-term stats are solid, and his opposing goalie is nothing to write home about. Smith has had a good season so far, but his long-term save percentage is only 90.8%. The Flyers have some of the highest scoring numbers in the league against average goalies like Smith. I could easily see them getting 4, maybe 5 goals in this game, while the Coyotes struggle to get 3. Unfortunately, there isn't enough offered on the PL to make it worthwhile, so I had to settle for the ML at -165. There is still good value at that number, though, as my model has them winning this game 71% of the time. On the total, I can't find anyone offering good odds. It's likely to go over, but at -120 there just isn't any value. I would need a -115 to go for it.

[toddorts]

Ok, a bunch of goalies have been confirmed for tonight, so here are my next plays:

Canadiens @ ISLANDERS PL -1.5 +260
Penguins @ Lightning OVER 5.5 -110
AVALANCHE @ Wild ML +115
Panthers @ BLUES ML -150
Capitals @ JETS ML +150
Capitals @ Jets UNDER 5.5 -105

Canadiens @ Islanders

The best bet on this game is the PL on the Islanders. My formulas give them a 34% chance of winning by at least two goals, and they're getting +260 odds. That's damned good value. Budaj is an average goalie in the net for the Canadiens, and the Islanders have the home ice. More than likely, it will be a one goal game, but that 34% chance makes it worth a play. The total is right where it should be, though, so no play.

Penguins @ Lightning

With these odds, there's no good play on sides in this game. The best play is on the over. Fleury is always right on the borderline for whether I consider him good or average, but Roloson is hard core average. With both of them, I think this one goes over about 60% of the time. I do hate the way Tampa Bay plays, though, with their cowardly defense and no real effort to keep pushing offense after getting ahead, but the numbers don't lie, and they average about 3.3/gg against average goalies. The Penguins are pretty similar. If the Penguins go ahead early, then Tampa will be more aggressive, and the over becomes even more likely. I think there's good value at -110.

Avalanche @ Wild

I give the Avs a slight advantage in this matchup, even on the road. It's not much, but it's enough to make it worthwhile at +115. I wouldn't go lower, though. Their chance is only about 51.5% according to my formulas, so if the odds drop, then the value goes away quickly. Although I think the under is a strong likelihood, the problem is that everyone else apparently does, too. The odds being offered are horrible, and they destroy any value. If they shift the other direction, then a play might be worthwhile, but not at these odds.

Panthers @ Blues

I'm absolutely loving this play. The Blues are far stronger in this matchup than the odds make it seem. Theodore is nothing more than an average goalie, but Halak's long-term numbers are strong, even if his season numbers could be better. Against average goalies, the Blues have done surprisingly well lately, and I could definitely see them with 4 goals tonight, while holding the Panthers to probably 2. Lots of value in this moneyline. There is a good likelihood that the total goes over 5, but the odds aren't good enough to make it worthwhile. Pass on the total.

Capitals @ Jets

I can't believe that the Caps are getting +150 here. Pavelec is nothing to be proud of, and the Caps have decent offensive numbers against average goalies lately. Even giving the Jets some decent home ice advantage they still don't come close to justifying these odds. I see the game as a toss-up, so with +150 on one side, that's who you take. I also see value on the under here. Even though Pavelec sucks, the Caps aren't offensive powerhouses, and the Jets certainly aren't either, definitely not against someone like Neuvirth. At -105, it's a no-brainer.

[toddorts]

Have to run out the door for work, but here are my last plays for the night:

MAPLE LEAFS @ Predators ML +155
SENATORS @ Oilers ML +120
Kings @ Ducks UNDER 5 +105
RED WINGS @ Sharks ML +120
Red Wings @ Sharks OVER 5.5 +105

No time for write-ups.

[toddorts]

Almost had a good night, but lost a few at the end, making it a break even night. Record for today was 6-6, -0.03 units.

Record:

39-50-2
43.82%
-4.84 units

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Two plays so far for tonight:

Sabres @ Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 -110
Stars @ Avalanche UNDER 5.5 +EV

Sabres @ Hurricanes

No value to be found on either the PL or ML, but there is some value on the total, albeit not a lot. The Sabres' offensive numbers haven't been spectacular lately, even against a pretty bad goalie like Boucher. They figure to score 2-3 goals here. The Canes are also looking to get about 2-3. This should finish under 5.5 about 55.6% of the time, according to my formulas. With odds at -110, that makes it worthwhile. I wouldn't take it at anything worse, though.

Stars @ Avalanche

I see a lot more value in this one on the total, although there still isn't any value on sides. On the total, the under is being helped by two good goalies in Giguere and Lehtonen, and the books are offering even money, which makes this a much better value than the Sabres/Canes game.

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Two final plays for tonight before I head to work:

BLACKHAWKS @ Flames PL -1.5 +250
Blackhawks @ Flames UNDER 5.5 -120

Blackhawks @ Flames

No value on the ML here, but I'm seeing decent value on the PL. My model puts the correct PL for the Blackhawks at -1.5 +218, so getting it at +250 is pretty good. The total is a little closer, but it still has a bit of value at -120. With two good goalies in Crawford and Kiprusoff, this one should stay under 5.5 about 58% of the time.

[toddorts]

Yet another break even night. Record was 2-2, -0.09 units.

Record:

41-52-2
44.09%
-4.93 units

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Last minute picks on the Wings/Kings game:

RED WINGS @ Kings ML +105
Red Wings @ Kings UNDER 5 +120

[toddorts]

Some goalies confirmed for tonight's games, so here are my picks for those:

Rangers @ Canadiens UNDER 5 +EV
Devils @ LIGHTNING PL -1.5 +235
Capitals @ MAPLE LEAFS ML +130
Capitals @ Maple Leafs UNDER 5.5 -110
Blues @ Wild UNDER 5 +EV

Rangers @ Canadiens

No value on sides in this game, but there is value on the total. With Biron and Price in the nets, this one should stay under about 54.5% of the time, which makes the +EV odds pretty valuable. Both goalies are good, and neither time figures to score more than 2-3 goals.

Devils @ Lightning

The value here isn't on the ML, it's on the PL, and only if you can find good enough odds. I could only find odds good enough at Heritage, but there could be others where I don't have an account. You really need to find at least +215 on the Lightning to make it worthwhile. On the total, no value to be found anywhere.

Capitals @ Maple Leafs

I see this game as a coin toss. The Caps have an advantage with Gustavsson in the net for the Leafs, but even against average goalies, their offense hasn't been great. The Leafs have slightly better offensive stats, but they're going up against a better goalie in Vokoun. In the end, it's about even, and the Leafs are getting +130 odds, so that's an easy choice. On the total, the under is once again the value play. Unless Gustavsson has a particularly bad night, then this should stay under pretty easily. My model puts it at 58%.

Blues @ Wild

Two good goalies are driving this pick on the total. Halak and Harding should manage to keep both teams under 3 goals a piece. This could easily be a 2-1 game. No value on sides, once again.

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Three more picks:

BLUE JACKETS @ Predators ML +175
Blue Jackets @ Predators UNDER 5 +130
SHARKS @ Stars PL -1.5 +210

Blue Jackets @ Predators

There's certainly no doubt that the Preds have the advantage in this game. Rinne is the better goalie, and they have the much better offense. But even with all of their advantages, my formulas only give them a 60% chance of winning, which means the +175 odds on the Jackets are profitable over time. On the total, some books are offering the line at 5, and others at 5.5. No value on 5.5, but lots of value on under 5 at +130. This game should stay under 5 about 53.7% of the time.

Sharks @ Stars

The only play with value here is the PL on the Sharks, and it isn't a ton of value, either. But it is enough to make it a worthwhile play. With Raycroft in the net for the Stars, the Sharks should get 3-4 goals, while Niemi limits the Stars to 2-3. They'll win it by 2 goals about 34% of the time, making +210 odds profitable, albeit not by much. I wouldn't take it at anything less than those odds.

[toddorts]

Finally, a good night! Record was 5-3-2, +4.2 units.

Record:

46-55-4
45.54%
-0.73 units

[toddorts]

First picks for today. No write-ups because I'm busy watching NFL games.

MAPLE LEAFS @ Hurricanes ML +135
SENATORS @ Canucks ML +165
Senators @ Canucks UNDER 5.5 +EV

[toddorts]

Another pick:

Sharks @ Avalanche UNDER 5.5 +EV

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Last minute pick:

RED WINGS @ Ducks PL -1.5 +260

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Finally, into the plus units for the NHL this season! Tonight's record was 3-2, +2.6 units.

Record:

49-57-4
46.23%
+1.87 units

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I think I'm going to have to stop with the write-ups. They're just taking too much time. But I'll keep the picks coming, of course:

ISLANDERS @ Penguins ML +190
COYOTES @ Capitals ML +130
DEVILS @ Panthers ML +110
Devils @ Panthers UNDER 5 -105
Oilers @ STARS PL -1.5 +240

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Two more picks:

FLAMES @ Blue Jackets PL -1.5 +260
Flames @ Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 +115

[toddorts]

Two final picks for the night:

Bruins @ CANADIENS ML +120
Bruins @ Canadiens OVER 5.5 +140

[toddorts]

Man, after yesterday's great night, today really sucked. Record was 1-8, -5.6 units.

Record:

50-65-4
43.48%
-3.73 units

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Plays for today's first two games:

MAPLE LEAFS @ Lightning ML +140
Kings @ BLUES ML -130
Kings @ Blues OVER 5 -110

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Last pick for the night:

Oilers @ Predators UNDER 5 +110

[toddorts]

Another losing night, although not too bad. Record was 1-2-1, -0.6 units.

Record:

51-67-5
43.22%
-4.33 units

[toddorts]

Tonight's picks so far:

BLUE JACKETS @ Devils ML +150
Blue Jackets @ Devils UNDER 5 +120
BLUES @ Penguins ML +170
Blues @ Penguins OVER 5.5 +130
JETS @ Capitals ML +175
Jets @ Capitals UNDER 5.5 -105
FLAMES @ Red Wings ML +150
Kings @ STARS PL -1.5 +250
Kings @ Stars UNDER 5 +105
Canucks @ AVALANCHE ML +115
Canucks @ Avalanche UNDER 5.5 -105
BLACKHAWKS @ Sharks ML +125
Blackhawks @ Sharks UNDER 5.5 +110

[toddorts]

And two more:

RANGERS @ Panthers PL -1.5 +280
Rangers @ Panthers UNDER 5 +105

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Three more picks:

CANADIENS @ Hurricanes PL -1.5 +255
Bruins @ SABRES +110
Bruins @ Sabres OVER 5.5 +120

[toddorts]

And one final play:

DUCKS @ Coyotes ML +125