Toddorts NHL 2011-2012 Season Picks

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  • toddorts
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-30-11
    • 882

    #211
    Finally, an up night! Record was 1-0, +0.77 units.

    Record:

    188-250-20
    42.92%
    -29.97 units
    Comment
    • toddorts
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 09-30-11
      • 882

      #212
      I see a lot of value on unders today. But with my NHL record this year, who knows? Thank God for football and basketball. Anyway, here are the picks:

      Capitals @ Canadiens UNDER 5 +125
      Canucks @ Avalanche UNDER 5.5 -125
      Kings @ Hurricanes UNDER 5 +105
      Panthers @ LIGHTNING ML -140
      Panthers @ LIGHTNING PL -1.5 +215
      Sharks @ Coyotes UNDER 5 +115
      Blues @ Predators UNDER 5 -115
      WILD @ Stars PL +1.5 -225
      Wild @ Stars UNDER 5 +105
      Comment
      • toddorts
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 09-30-11
        • 882

        #213
        Great day in the NHL! Those unders really paid off, as expected. Record was 8-1, +7.33 units.

        Record:

        196-251-20
        43.85%
        -22.64 units
        Comment
        • toddorts
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 09-30-11
          • 882

          #214
          Just like the NBA, the NHL is getting their games done early in the day on Super Bowl Sunday, and there aren't many games at that. So, I'm getting my plays down early. Here they are:

          BRUINS @ Capitals ML -145
          PENGUINS @ Devils ML -120
          Jets @ Canadiens UNDER 5 +110
          Comment
          • toddorts
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 09-30-11
            • 882

            #215
            Not a bad day. Record was 2-1, +0.79 units.

            Record:

            198-252-20
            44.00%
            -21.85 units
            Comment
            • toddorts
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-30-11
              • 882

              #216
              Much like the NBA, not a lot of value to be found in the NHL today. I only spotted two totals that were worth a play. Here they are:

              Red Wings @ Coyotes UNDER 5.5 -125
              Flames @ Ducks UNDER 5.5 -150
              Comment
              • toddorts
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 09-30-11
                • 882

                #217
                Those unders have really been paying off this week. Another good night at 2-0, +1.47 units.

                Record:

                200-252-20
                44.25%
                -20.38 units
                Comment
                • toddorts
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 09-30-11
                  • 882

                  #218
                  Not many picks in the NBA today, but the NHL makes up for it. Continuing the trend of the past week, I see quite a bit of value on unders. Here are the picks:

                  WILD @ Blue Jackets ML -110
                  Wild @ Blue Jackets UNDER 5 +105
                  Islanders @ FLYERS ML -170
                  Islanders @ FLYERS PL -1.5 +175
                  Penguins @ Canadiens UNDER 5 +120
                  COYOTES @ Stars PL +1.5 -240
                  Coyotes @ Stars UNDER 5.5 -125
                  Blackhawks @ Avalanche UNDER 5.5 -110
                  Comment
                  • toddorts
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-30-11
                    • 882

                    #219
                    Down slightly for the night. Record was 4-4, -0.53 units.

                    Record:

                    204-256-20
                    44.35%
                    -20.91 units
                    Comment
                    • toddorts
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-30-11
                      • 882

                      #220
                      Here are tonight's picks:

                      Oilers @ RED WINGS PL -1.5 +130
                      BRUINS @ Sabres ML -170
                      Hurricanes @ Ducks UNDER 5.5 -120
                      Flames @ Sharks UNDER 5 +115
                      Comment
                      • toddorts
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 09-30-11
                        • 882

                        #221
                        Pretty much nothing for today. Up just a tiny bit at 2-2, +0.13 units.

                        Record:

                        206-258-20
                        44.40%
                        -20.78 units
                        Comment
                        • toddorts
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 09-30-11
                          • 882

                          #222
                          Quite a few plays, including a bunch of unders again. Not sure why, but there just seems to be a lot of value on unders lately. Here are the picks:

                          Jets @ Capitals UNDER 5 +110
                          CANADIENS @ Islanders PL +1.5 -275
                          Canadiens @ Islanders UNDER 5 +125
                          Lightning @ Rangers UNDER 5.5 -125
                          Maple Leafs @ Flyers UNDER 5.5 +110
                          Kings @ PANTHERS ML +120
                          Kings @ Panthers UNDER 5 -125
                          Flames @ Coyotes UNDER 5 +120
                          Comment
                          • toddorts
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 09-30-11
                            • 882

                            #223
                            Up a little bit for the night. Lost two of the unders with just seconds left in the game! I was not happy. Oh well. Record was 4-3-1, +0.56 units.

                            Record:

                            210-261-21
                            44.59%
                            -20.22 units
                            Comment
                            • toddorts
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 09-30-11
                              • 882

                              #224
                              Not many games tonight, but a few plays:

                              Stars @ Sabres UNDER 5.5 -135
                              Ducks @ RED WINGS PL -1.5 +165
                              Hurricanes @ AVALANCHE PL -1.5 +225
                              Hurricanes @ Avalanche UNDER 5.5 -140
                              Comment
                              • toddorts
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 09-30-11
                                • 882

                                #225
                                Well, I was due for a down night in the NHL, and I had it. Record was 1-3, -2.26 units.

                                Record:

                                211-264-21
                                44.42%
                                -22.48 units
                                Comment
                                • toddorts
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 09-30-11
                                  • 882

                                  #226
                                  I'm spending a lot more time working on the NBA lines now, so I'll be making fewer and fewer NHL picks as the NBA season progresses, most likely. I've always found it tough to make money in the NHL, while the NBA is typically a pretty easy one to beat, in my opinion. So, that will be my focus. But, still a few picks here and there on hockey. For today, just three:

                                  LIGHTNING @ Sabres ML +115
                                  AVALANCHE @ Blues ML +180
                                  AVALANCHE @ Blues PL +1.5 -150

                                  The Avalanche game is a tough call on the ML. I'm hesitant to take such heavy underdogs, usually, but my model just doesn't show these numbers as justified. I'm seeing over a 40% chance that they pull it off. The PL on them is a much easier call. If you're risk averse, just go with that.
                                  Comment
                                  • toddorts
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 09-30-11
                                    • 882

                                    #227
                                    Well, the Avs held in there till the end, but couldn't pull it off. Still won the PL, but the ML would have been nice. Record for the night was 2-1, +0.82 units.

                                    Record:

                                    213-265-21
                                    44.56%
                                    -21.66 units
                                    Comment
                                    • toddorts
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 09-30-11
                                      • 882

                                      #228
                                      I'll be sleeping when the early afternoon games start, so I went ahead and handicapped them and placed a couple of wagers. The total is a little iffy, but I think it still has value. I feel much better about the PL, which I think has lots of value on the Rangers. Anyway, here they are, with the evening games to follow when I wake up:

                                      Capitals @ Rangers OVER 5 -120
                                      Capitals @ RANGERS PL -1.5 +190
                                      Comment
                                      • toddorts
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 09-30-11
                                        • 882

                                        #229
                                        Ok, time for the evening games, and I've got several picks. Here they are:

                                        Ducks @ BLUE JACKETS ML +145
                                        Ducks @ BLUE JACKETS PL +1.5 -205
                                        Lightning @ PENGUINS -1.5 +135
                                        Flyers @ Red Wings OVER 5.5 -125
                                        Flyers @ RED WINGS PL -1.5 +170

                                        Just like yesterday's picks where I had both the ML and PL on a game, in the case of today's Blue Jackets pick, the safer play is to just take the PL. The value is there at -205, and without all of the risk of the ML. Still, I like the ML at +145 odds, so I listed both.
                                        Comment
                                        • toddorts
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 09-30-11
                                          • 882

                                          #230
                                          I can't believe that the Jackets couldn't even cover the PL. Oh well. I should be used to it by now this season. Down for the night at 2-4-1, -1.85 units.

                                          Record:

                                          215-269-22
                                          44.42%
                                          -23.51 units
                                          Comment
                                          • toddorts
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 09-30-11
                                            • 882

                                            #231
                                            Only two plays today, and both are PLs:

                                            Hurricanes @ CANADIENS -1.5 +200
                                            Coyotes @ CANUCKS -1.5 +175
                                            Comment
                                            • toddorts
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 09-30-11
                                              • 882

                                              #232
                                              I just can't catch a break in this damned sport this year. Another down night at 0-2, -2.00 units.

                                              Record:

                                              215-271-22
                                              44.24%
                                              -25.51 units
                                              Comment
                                              • toddorts
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 09-30-11
                                                • 882

                                                #233
                                                Lots of picks in the NHL today:

                                                Blues @ BLUE JACKETS ML +165
                                                Senators @ Lightning OVER 5.5 -111
                                                Rangers @ BRUINS ML -125
                                                Rangers @ BRUINS OVER 5 -115
                                                Rangers @ BRUINS PL -1.5 +240
                                                Stars @ RED WINGS PL -1.5 +140
                                                Ducks @ WILD ML +115
                                                Ducks @ Wild UNDER 5.5 -140
                                                Ducks @ WILD PL +1.5 -260
                                                Blackhawks @ PREDATORS ML -120
                                                Blackhawks @ Predators OVER 5.5 +115
                                                Comment
                                                • toddorts
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 09-30-11
                                                  • 882

                                                  #234
                                                  Down again. Record was 5-6, -1.02 units.

                                                  Record:

                                                  220-277-22
                                                  44.27%
                                                  -26.53 units
                                                  Comment
                                                  • toddorts
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 09-30-11
                                                    • 882

                                                    #235
                                                    Only three picks for tonight:

                                                    Ducks @ PENGUINS PL -1.5 +160
                                                    Maple Leafs @ Oilers OVER 5.5 -110
                                                    Avalanche @ CANUCKS PL -1.5 +145
                                                    Comment
                                                    • toddorts
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 09-30-11
                                                      • 882

                                                      #236
                                                      Finally, a decent night in the NHL! Record was 2-1, +1.36 units.

                                                      Record:

                                                      222-278-22
                                                      44.40%
                                                      -25.17 units
                                                      Comment
                                                      • toddorts
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 09-30-11
                                                        • 882

                                                        #237
                                                        Got a good number of NHL picks tonight. On the Flyers game, I see value on both the PL and ML, although there's a lot more value on the PL. The value on the ML at -155 is just barely there, but as always, if you're more risk averse, then a ML is always more comforting than a puck line favorite. Here are the picks:

                                                        Blackhawks @ Rangers OVER 5.5 +115
                                                        Sabres @ FLYERS ML -155
                                                        Sabres @ Flyers OVER 5.5 -108
                                                        Sabres @ FLYERS PL -1.5 +190
                                                        Jets @ WILD ML -110
                                                        Islanders @ BLUES PL -1.5 +163
                                                        COYOTES @ Kings ML +120
                                                        Coyotes @ Kings UNDER 5 -134
                                                        Comment
                                                        • toddorts
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 09-30-11
                                                          • 882

                                                          #238
                                                          Now that is why you stick with it even when a season is going bad. Eventually, a great night comes along. Tonight was incredible at 7-1, +7.20 units.

                                                          Record:

                                                          229-279-22
                                                          45.08%
                                                          -17.97 units
                                                          Comment
                                                          • toddorts
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 09-30-11
                                                            • 882

                                                            #239
                                                            No picks yesterday or today because I just don't have any time. I'm out of town and too busy to cap both the NBA and NHL, so I'm sticking with just the NBA for a few days. I'll be back to NHL picks tomorrow or the next day.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • toddorts
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 09-30-11
                                                              • 882

                                                              #240
                                                              Ok, I found the time to do some NHL handicapping this morning. Here are the picks:

                                                              PENGUINS @ Sabres ML -124
                                                              PENGUINS @ Sabres PL -1.5 +235
                                                              Devils @ CANADIENS ML -106
                                                              Devils @ CANADIENS PL -1.5 +270
                                                              Ducks @ PANTHERS ML +101
                                                              Ducks @ PANTHERS PL +1.5 -290
                                                              BLUE JACKETS @ Rangers ML +273
                                                              AVALANCHE @ Jets ML +121
                                                              Avalanche @ Jets UNDER 5.5 -140
                                                              CANUCKS @ Oilers PL -1.5 +205
                                                              Comment
                                                              • toddorts
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 09-30-11
                                                                • 882

                                                                #241
                                                                Wow, that day was just plain ugly. Record was an awful 1-10, -6.95 units.

                                                                Record:

                                                                230-289-22
                                                                44.32%
                                                                -24.92 units
                                                                Comment
                                                                • toddorts
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 09-30-11
                                                                  • 882

                                                                  #242
                                                                  Only one play today:

                                                                  Senators @ Islanders OVER 5.5 +113
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • toddorts
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 09-30-11
                                                                    • 882

                                                                    #243
                                                                    Only had one play for the day, but it was a winner. Record was 1-0, +1.13 units.

                                                                    Record:

                                                                    231-289-22
                                                                    44.42%
                                                                    -23.79 units
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • toddorts
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 09-30-11
                                                                      • 882

                                                                      #244
                                                                      I've got a good number of picks tonight on the NHL. On the Ducks/Lightning game, you'll notice both a ML pick and a +1.5 PL pick on the Lightning. Frankly, I think the Lightning stand the best chance of winning this game outright at home. Different situation if they were on the road at Anaheim, but I think they've got the advantage on home ice. I'd take them at anything better than -110, and they're getting plus money odds at most books. This might be a situation where I would look at a RPL if I had the time, but I just never have time to work on calculating RPL lines. So, I took the posted PL which gives the Lightning points. It's still valuable at -260, in my opinion. Anyway, here are the picks:

                                                                      Rangers @ PENGUINS ML -122
                                                                      ISLANDERS @ Sabres ML +149
                                                                      SHARKS @ Blue Jackets PL -1.5 +175
                                                                      Ducks @ LIGHTNING ML +111
                                                                      Ducks @ LIGHTNING PL +1.5 -260
                                                                      Stars @ CANADIENS ML -140
                                                                      Stars @ CANADIENS PL -1.5 +215
                                                                      Red Wings @ Blackhawks OVER 5.5 +EV
                                                                      Kings @ COYOTES ML -112
                                                                      Kings @ Coyotes UNDER 5 -140
                                                                      Kings @ COYOTES PL -1.5 +275
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • toddorts
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 09-30-11
                                                                        • 882

                                                                        #245
                                                                        Pretty bad night. Some of these games just had really weird outcomes. Record was 4-7, -3.79 units.

                                                                        Record:

                                                                        235-296-22
                                                                        44.26%
                                                                        -27.58 units
                                                                        Comment
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