EP36's Pickin' Penguin OVERdose

EaglesPhan36 · 02-23-12, 08:46 PM

2.23.12: FLYERS-OILERS OVER 5.5 [-142]
Bryzgalov v. Dubnyk. Bryzgalov has given up at least three goals in three of his last five starts. Away from home, he's had some issues with 18 goals allowed in his last five road starts. Dubnyk has given up three goals or more in five of his last six appearances. Flyers have gone OVERs in eight of their last nine. Oilers in the same. Chalky, but gotta go for it.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-23-12, 09:51 PM

Heh. Missed the beginning and bet it live instead at +125 at the 12:00 mark in the 1st period. We'll see how that goes.

ghost212 · 02-24-12, 08:03 AM

Tell me EP, why you to get the Phila over 5,5 yesterday? That is, what I say for another handicaper on this site:
"edmonton-phila only 2 overs in 6 games and philadelphia has no under from 6 games... i see under here or one of next 2-3 games. Long streak of overs of phila is 7 in this season. I see max 4 goals for that game."
And i get edmonton with +123 and under5 with +296.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-24-12, 05:27 PM

2.24.12: BRUINS-SABRES OVER 5.5 [+115]
Plug 'n play tonight. This has been an OVERs series with no rhyme or reason, so I give no reasons.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-27-12, 05:20 PM

Record: 40-35 [+1.68]

Need to get back to the win column.

2.27.12: OILERS-JETS OVER 5.5 [-101]
Dubnyk v. Pavelec. Dubnyk got back to his leaky self after a couple of solid starts as he gave up three goals in a loss to PHX last time out. He has not given up at least three goals in six of his last eight starts. Pavelec has yielded eight goals over his last two starts and has seen OVERs hit in five of his last six thanks in part to the Jets offense. They have tallied at least four goals in those five starts. Overall, Winnipeg has dumped in at least four goals in six of their last eight. They have allowed at least three goals in that same span. Edmonton has been a little hit and miss offensively of late, but have still scored two or more in nine of their eleven games in February. Their last four on the road have gone OVERs. Four of the Jets last five at home have hit for at least six goals. Winnipeg's PP could be big here.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-27-12, 11:25 PM

Great flurry of goals and back in the W column.

Record: 41-35 [+2.68]

EaglesPhan36 · 02-28-12, 07:00 PM

2.28.12: FLYERS-SHARKS OVER 5.5 [-125]
Bryzgalov v. Niemi. Niemi has been slammed for at least three goals in seven of his last nine apperances. His last three home starts have all gone OVERs. Bryzgalov has allowed at least two goals in six of his last seven appearances. The Flyers have given up at least three goals six of their last eight overall with OVERs in that same amount of games. San Jose has been steady with at least two goals in seven straight. Their defense has been as well, giving up at least three goals in eleven of their last 12. Looking for special teams to have a big say with both PP units steady and in decent form.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-29-12, 05:54 PM

One stinkin' goal last night.

Record: 41-36 [+1.43]

Nothing enticing tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-06-12, 06:02 PM

3.6.12: RED WINGS-FLYERS OVER 5.5 [-120]
By decree of Gary Bettman. Just pluggin' n playin' this one. Macdonald has been pretty stellar in net for Detroit with the exception of giving up three to this Flyers' squad. Philadelphia has been more of an OVERs club at home with OVERs in five straight at home.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-12-12, 05:58 PM

Record: 41-36 [+1.43]

Trying something different tonight.

3.12.12: Montreal G Peter Budaj Total Saves Over 27.5 [-115]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-13-12, 05:15 AM

Record: 42-37 [+1.23]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-13-12, 04:47 PM

3.13.12: Islanders G Evgeni Nabokov Total Saves Over 26.5 [-115]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-14-12, 05:58 PM

Record: 42-38 [+0.08]

Think I am going on hiatus during the NCAA tournament days for the next two weeks, just too much to keep on top off. Feel like NHL is the last thing I look at and felt obligated to pick. Not a good idea.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-19-12, 08:12 PM

3.19.12: DUCKS GOALIE JONAS HILLER TOTAL SAVES OVER 29.5 [-120]
Expecting the Sharks as usual to pepper the goalie with a ton of shots. In two starts vs. San Jose this season, Hiller has made 31 and 36 saves. Sharks have put up 30+ shots in eight of their last nine overall. 31 was the low shot total by San Jose against Anaheim in four meetings this season. Sharks average 34 shots per game.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-19-12, 09:26 PM

Cancelled. Hiller did not start.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-20-12, 05:01 PM

3.20.12: JETS-PENGUINS OVER 5. [-125]
Pavelec v. Thiessen. Pavelec has terrible numbers lifetime vs. the Pens, 1-9 with a 4.56 GAA. In two starts vs. PIT this season, he's allowed 12 goals. 12! He's allowed at least two goals in eight of his last ten starts and at least three in six of those. Thiessen has been solid in two starts, allowing two goals in each. Both offenses are click with the Jets scoring at least three in eight of their last ten, while the Pens have scored three or more in seven of their last ten.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-20-12, 05:02 PM

Over 5.5 obviously. Edit.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-20-12, 07:48 PM

Love those easy cashers early.

Record: 43-38 [+1.08]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-21-12, 05:13 PM

3.21.12: CAROLINA G CAM WARD TOTAL SAVES OVER 26 [-115]
The Panthers have put up an anemic 28 shots in their last two games, but expect that to change against a Carolina team giving up well over 30 shots in six of their last eight. Ward has stopped at least 30 shots in six of his last seven starts. That includes 31 stops against Florida. Prior to Florida's troubles against Philly and Buffalo, they had averaged at least 27 shots in eight straight. In the last two meetings between these two, the Panthers have put up 77 shots with only four of them getting past the opposing goalie.

lato89 · 03-21-12, 05:29 PM

which bookie has a bet like that?

EaglesPhan36 · 03-21-12, 05:37 PM

This one is @ Bovada. BetPhoenix or someone else used to post Team Shot Totals which is better than this because you don't have to worry about saves, just shots.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-21-12, 08:02 PM

Home early in the 3rd.

Record: 44-38 [+2.08]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-22-12, 08:36 PM

3.22.11: PHOENIX G MIKE SMITH TOTAL SAVES OVER 28 [-115]
Smith has made 30 or more saves in five of his last six starts. In two starts vs. Colorado, he's stopped 77 of 79 shots. Phoenix has given up at least 30 shots in six of their last eight games. Colorado averages about 31 shots per game and has topped 30 shots in seven of their last ten.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-22-12, 11:20 PM

Record: 45-38 [+3.08]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-23-12, 06:05 PM

3.23.12: CANADIENS G CAREY PRICE TOTAL SAVES OVER 29 [-115]
Montreal has been giving up shots by the truckload in their last ten games. In nine of those, the opposition has put up at least 30 shots. In the last two meetings with Ottawa, Price has topped 30 saves in each game and only once in their four meetings has he failed to face at least 30 shots. The Senators have put up 30 or more shots in six of their last seven overall. Price has also faced more than 30 shots in each of his last seven starts.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-23-12, 09:10 PM

Another goalie casher. Think this is my favorite prop.

Record: 46-38 [+4.08]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-24-12, 02:55 PM

3.24.12: PENGUINS-SENATORS OVER 5.5 [-115]
Thiessen v. Bishop. Not going to overthink this too much. The Pens are killing it on offense with five goals or more in five of their last six games. Thiessen has given up at least two goals in each of his three starts, allowing four last time to Winnipeg. Bishop has been mostly decent in his limited starts, but the Ottawa defense is taking some bad penalties and allowing for lots of PP time in their last few games. Pittsburgh is doing most of its damage lately at even strength, so who knows how many they could put up if their PP comes to life.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-24-12, 07:31 PM

Straight bank in the 2nd period son.

Record: 46-38 [+4.08]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-12, 04:28 PM

3.25.12: PHOENIX G MIKE SMITH TOTAL SAVES OVER 27.5 [-115]
Smith hasn't been confirmed as the starter tonight and the bet is void if he doesn't start. If he does though, I like it. Smith has been forced to make 29 or more saves in seven of his last eight starts. Smith has one start against St.Louis, saving 27 of 30 shots faced. The Blues have been putting up a ton of shots lately, 35 or more in three of their last four and the Coyotes have given up 30 or more shots in eight of their last ten.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-12, 07:12 PM

No bet. Hanna Barbera starting in stead.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-26-12, 04:07 PM

3.26.12: STARS GOALIE KARI LEHTONEN TOTAL SAVES OVER 25 [-115]
Lehtonen has made at least 25 saves in seven of his last eight starts and 17 of his last 23 overall. That streak includes 35 stops in his last start which came against this same Calgary club. The Flames have put up at least 29 shots in four straight. The Stars allow around 31 shots per game and have allowed the opposition to put at least 30 shots on net in six of their last ten. Two of their three meetings with Calgary have gone to OT this season. Lehtonen started all three games with 25 saves being his low total and that was done in regulation of that game. He had 35 & 36 saves in the other two games.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-26-12, 10:25 PM

Stars weren't very good, but it still gets done.

Record: 47-38 [+4.08]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-27-12, 05:10 PM

3.27.12: LIGHTNING-BRUINS OVER 5.5 [-120]
Roloson v. Thomas. Rolo has good #s vs. Boston for his career, but has not faced them this season. He has given up at least three goals in nine of his last eleven starts. Thomas has given up at least two goals in eleven of his last 13 appearances. TB has found some offensive footing lately with 15 goals in their last four games. Boston has scored at least three goals in six of their last ten. TB has given up three goals or more in seven of their last ten. The B's have given up at least two in eight of their last nine. TB has still been a good OVERs bet on the road with 22 of 35 hitting in that direction.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-27-12, 09:25 PM

Got my math in line, looks ever better.

Record: 49-38 [+7.08]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-28-12, 04:27 PM

3.28.12: RED WINGS-BLUE JACKETS OVER 5.5 [-120]

Conklin v. York. Red Wings have absolutely crushed it their last two games with 12 goals. Columbus has allowed 19 goals in their last four. Conklin has allowed at least two goals in eleven of his 12 starts this season. York has been used mainly for mop up duty, but has given up goals even in doing that. In his only start back in October, he was pasted for four goals by Chicago. Three OVERs in five meetings between the two this season including the last two which finished with nine and seven goals. Even though Columbus has been pretty inconsistent scoring, the Wings have given up at least two goals in eleven straight and 16 of their last 17. Detroit PP could loom large tonight.