Flea Hotel's Legendary Chalk Free Plays

**thekoreanmang** · 01-05-17, 05:30 PM

Wow. Great stuff, Flea. Like your winning ways. Love your giving ways.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-05-17, 06:03 PM

Thanks, wish I had more time to search for those plus money plays.

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Wow. Great stuff, Flea. Like your winning ways. Love your giving ways.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-06-17, 10:52 AM

I'm back and these plays are very high risk/high reward. I don't really recommend playing tailing them until we see how they do for a week or two. I have a new model that looks to project extremely close games. In other words, I'm attempting to hunt out games that go to OT. We all hate OT when we have a PL or RPL and we sweat them when we have the ML. I've rigged up my model to search for games that end with a more than 30% chance of the game tied after regulation. I will be tweaking this as I go. I'm posting them more for my own reasons but also just in case it's an effective model, people can see a track record down the road a bit. I'm expecting a lot of close games after the all star break and in the playoffs so I want to start fine tuning this now. My team total thread is a much safer way to profit. I've been messing with this for the past month and am up over 8units, so now I'd like it documented. Play at your own risk. Occasional PL's and -.5's will still be posted here but only once they pass a four pass stat model with about 2 billion variables.

(YTD, 14-16, +8.74u)

TOR/NJD goes to overtime (+270) 1u to win 2.7u

**sedwards86** · 01-06-17, 12:28 PM

This game has about 50% chance I think. What did you come up with? Last four Toronto games have gone to OT. Imagine winning +270 four games in a row...

**Flea Hotel** · 01-06-17, 01:47 PM

All my models have almost all the same results for each team dualized. I usually just pass when that happens but screw it, I'm going to see if it ends up going to OT, for that price.

Originally posted by sedwards86

This game has about 50% chance I think. What did you come up with? Last four Toronto games have gone to OT. Imagine winning +270 four games in a row...

**Flea Hotel** · 01-06-17, 02:50 PM

Adding...
Not sure who wins but for +139, this is a value play. I'll go out on a limb and say 4-2 or 4-3 someone.

Calgary Flames vs Vancouver Canucks OVER 5.5 (+139) 1u to win 1.39u

**Flea Hotel** · 01-06-17, 08:36 PM

**HockKid11** · 01-06-17, 08:39 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Haha, Devils come back, 5-5 to OT!

**reed_barrington** · 01-06-17, 08:39 PM

I got OVER 5 (-135) Go Flames! Go VAN!

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Adding...
Not sure who wins but for +139, this is a value play. I'll go out on a limb and say 4-2 or 4-3 someone.

Calgary Flames vs Vancouver Canucks OVER 5.5 (+139) 1u to win 1.39u

**Flea Hotel** · 01-06-17, 09:05 PM

I got a small play on the under too. Blah. I've seen crazier comebacks. Hopefully the NCAAB games I'm tailing even out this loss (I can't watch NCAAB, it's like watching someone try to write a letter with their wrong hand) and Calgary and Vancouver do their part.

Originally posted by HockKid11

Haha, Devils come back, 5-5 to OT!

**Flea Hotel** · 01-06-17, 09:06 PM

I almost took the o5 but liked the juice on the 6th goal. BOL to us both.

Originally posted by reed_barrington

I got OVER 5 (-135) Go Flames! Go VAN!

**Steamroller** · 01-06-17, 10:12 PM

Maaaaaaaaaaan this Tor @ NJ match. Can't believe i had to wait this long for o 5,5.

**tecmoslayer** · 01-07-17, 02:33 AM

Thanks for the WINNER!!!

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Adding...
Not sure who wins but for +139, this is a value play. I'll go out on a limb and say 4-2 or 4-3 someone.

Calgary Flames vs Vancouver Canucks OVER 5.5 (+139) 1u to win 1.39u

**Flea Hotel** · 01-07-17, 06:31 AM

Originally posted by tecmoslayer

Thanks for the WINNER!!!

**Flea Hotel** · 01-07-17, 06:33 AM

WINNER!

(YTD, 15-17, +9.13u)

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Adding...
Not sure who wins but for +139, this is a value play. I'll go out on a limb and say 4-2 or 4-3 someone.

Calgary Flames vs Vancouver Canucks OVER 5.5 (+139) 1u to win 1.39u

**Flea Hotel** · 01-07-17, 12:09 PM

San Jose wins by 3 or more.
(YTD, 15-17, +9.13u)

San Jose Sharks PL-2.5 +275 1u to win 2.75u

**reed_barrington** · 01-07-17, 03:05 PM

Your making me feel very confident on a ML sharks bet

**Flea Hotel** · 01-07-17, 03:23 PM

Yup, I don't expect many to tail a -2.5 but if it helps with a tough call on a ML then that's just as good. This thread is a chemistry experiment, my TT thread is strict profit. I like SJ to win 6-1, give or take.

Originally posted by reed_barrington

Your making me feel very confident on a ML sharks bet

**Flea Hotel** · 01-07-17, 03:39 PM

IMO, the TT o2.5 at -160 or the o5 at -120 are far superior value plays than a -199 ML on SJ.

Originally posted by reed_barrington

Your making me feel very confident on a ML sharks bet

**reed_barrington** · 01-07-17, 04:32 PM

Thanks flea, fatherly advice

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

IMO, the TT o2.5 at -160 or the o5 at -120 are far superior value plays than a -199 ML on SJ.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-07-17, 07:33 PM

but looking back later tonight/early tomorrow, -199 will be fine since SJ wins this game.

Originally posted by reed_barrington

Thanks flea, fatherly advice

**Flea Hotel** · 01-07-17, 07:45 PM

Again, this thread is the Manhattan Project circa 1943. Especially the -2.5's and the OT predicitions.
An experiment on wheels. Tail at your own risk.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS VS. CALGARY FLAMES GAME TO OT (+280) 1 unit to win 2.8u

**nature_one** · 01-08-17, 01:08 AM

Well done on SJ man! Awesome stuff! Appreciate what you do

**Flea Hotel** · 01-08-17, 01:09 AM

No but...

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Again, this thread is the Manhattan Project circa 1943. Especially the -2.5's and the OT predicitions.
An experiment on wheels. Tail at your own risk.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS VS. CALGARY FLAMES GAME TO OT (+280) 1 unit to win 2.8u

**Flea Hotel** · 01-08-17, 01:12 AM

WINNER!

All you need is to flip a coin to pick -2.5s guys.
(YTD, 16-18, +10.88u)

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

San Jose wins by 3 or more.
San Jose Sharks PL-2.5 +275 1u to win 2.75u

**reed_barrington** · 01-08-17, 01:15 AM

You are amazing

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

WINNER!

All you need is to flip a coin to pick -2.5s guys.
(YTD, 16-18, +10.88u)

**Flea Hotel** · 01-08-17, 01:40 AM

Only three more days until this thread is one full month old. I've had a great 28 days and I owe it all to being pound for pound, one of the best coin flippers in the history of earth. Skål!

Originally posted by Nostradam

For all i know you flip coins. I've gone on hot little runs like 10-0, 30-10, etc, many times over the past 25 years.
Doing that, as many do, doesn't prove statisticly one can win consistently over years. Even the best cappers will have losing months & seasons.

**Don_Omarion** · 01-08-17, 05:27 AM

best of luck pal , way to go

**Catchn_Picks** · 01-08-17, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

WINNER!

All you need is to flip a coin to pick -2.5s guys.
(YTD, 16-18, +10.88u)

In a lifetime of sports betting, never hit a -2.5 NHL bet before FH. That was fun. Thank you. Enjoy the snow!

**Flea Hotel** · 01-08-17, 08:44 AM

They are fun. We've hit two in 28 days just in this thread, I think the first or second play was a -2.5 also. I only go there when my models are all of the charts pointing towards a big win. The biggest problem with them is if your team wins by two, you feel dumb for being greedy and if they win by 5 or more, you feel dumb for being conservative. I'd never play more than a -2.5 mainly because getting the two empty netters is realistic but after that, no model can predict an 8 goal win. I play the -1.5's and -.5's almost every day. The -2.5 once or twice a month. I did play a -3.5 years ago and the game was a blowout on the other side. There's a lot more value on -1.5's and even -2.5's at the end of the season when teams are resting starters, etc. Anyway, glad we hit it.

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

In a lifetime of sports betting, never hit a -2.5 NHL bet before FH. That was fun. Thank you. Enjoy the snow!

**Flea Hotel** · 01-08-17, 12:11 PM

It's technically chalk free (for now) and it's not a team total so I might as well put it here. This game pushes at worst.
(YTD, 16-18, +10.88u)

Minnesota Wild @ Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5 (+120) 1u to win 1.2u

**Flea Hotel** · 01-08-17, 12:24 PM

Adding. Play at your own risk. My models have this all over the place. The line makes this play a value play. For some reason I see it tied at 3 after 60. Could be wrong. Have to be right 23.2% of the time for it to have, cough, +EV.

TAM/PIT goes to overtime (+333) 1u to win 3.33u

**cooperman** · 01-08-17, 01:37 PM

keep on keeping on brother! Fun to watch a heater in progress

**Flea Hotel** · 01-08-17, 02:29 PM

I'm just going with my model which for some reason has this tied after 60mins 35% of the time. I think that Wild game goes under but like buddy from some other thread said, Pit should win this PL or -.5 but I gotta trust my system.

Originally posted by cooperman

keep on keeping on brother! Fun to watch a heater in progress

**reed_barrington** · 01-08-17, 07:27 PM

Looking for a nightcap. This may be it. Also leaning wild. ML

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

It's technically chalk free (for now) and it's not a team total so I might as well put it here. This game pushes at worst.
(YTD, 16-18, +10.88u)

Minnesota Wild @ Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5 (+120) 1u to win 1.2u