Rainman's NHL Thread 2012/2013 - $20 Unit System

Boxa · 10-27-13, 02:35 AM

Well yea, not a bad night, Toronto pulled us back from drowning

. Actually I'm in tinny tinny plus, at least, had great time watching Leafs game.

matskoviche · 10-27-13, 02:04 PM

any plays for today rainman? I'm thinking of a 2 game parlay, SJ/TBL. Any thoughts?

rainman416 · 10-27-13, 02:53 PM

TONIGHT'S PLAYS
SJ vs. OTT(ML) @-120 x1u LOSE
San Jose is starting their back-up today in Alex Stalock (http://www2.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/). Nothing special going on with him, I think OTT will put up a good fight at home, and Anderson will outplay the SJ back-up.

ANA(ML) vs. CBJ @+100 x1u WIN
Anaheim is still one of the best teams in the league in my opinion, and their back-up Andersen is a solid goaltender, CBJ has been winning for a few games now. Time for that to stop. ANA at plus money is my kinda play

ANA vs. CBJ OVER5.0 @-125 x.5u WIN
WPG vs. COL UNDER5.5 @-130 x.5u WIN
TB vs. FLA OVER5.5 @-115 x.5u WIN
SJ vs. OTT OVER5.5 @+125 x.5u WIN
EDM vs. LAK OVER5.5 @+110 x.5u LOSE
This is what I'm going to call the OVER/UNDER Frenzy. Again following some basic calculations based on season stats for these teams including PPG/per game, PP/per game, SOG/per game, and all the revers of those PPG/against per game.. etc.. anyhow it's pretty complicated sounding to me, but my buddy is messing around with this new spreadsheet. and I told him I'd tail him with half units for the day. so Here they are.

Aside from the system predictions, my OVER/UNDER plays would have still included EDM/LAK OVER5.5 @+110. That is a value play imo.

GL today.

Bet Details	Date/Time	Stake	Return
OTT Senators @ -120 $24.00 Single	10/27/2013 15:32:38	24.00	0.00
ANA Ducks @ +100 $20.00 Single	10/27/2013 15:32:38	20.00	40.00
Over 5.0 @ -125 $12.50 Single	10/27/2013 15:32:38	12.50	22.50
Under 5.5 @ -130 $13.00 Single	10/27/2013 15:32:38	13.00	23.00
Over 5.5 @ -115 $11.50 Single	10/27/2013 15:32:38	11.50	21.50
Over 5.5 @ +125 $10.00 Single	10/27/2013 15:32:38	10.00	22.50
Over 5.5 @ +110 $10.00 Single	10/27/2013 15:32:38	10.00	0.00
Total for this period		101.00	129.50

rainman416 · 10-27-13, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by matskoviche

any plays for today rainman? I'm thinking of a 2 game parlay, SJ/TBL. Any thoughts?

SJ at +money looks ridiculous right now in that "why wouldn't you bet that?" .. When I see lines like this I usually fade them. It's been working pretty well lately, and the one time I didn't (TOR vs. CBJ on Friday, TOR was listed at +100, looked as ridiculous as this one) CBJ won the game. Anyhow. Won't see me biting on that juicy looking SJ line. Could hit, but my money is on OTT.

TB seems to easy, even split with FLA at -110/-110. Lindback isn't that bad thought I don't think. Anyhow, couldn't pull the trigger on either side in that one.

No parlay's yet for me today, still considering making 1.

GL

rainman416 · 10-27-13, 03:12 PM

ADDING PARLAY: This is a long-shot fun parlay. But I don't think it's as long a shot as the massive +2015 Payout suggests

ANA(ML) + COL(-1.5) + EDM(In Reg.) @+2015 x.5u LOSE

EDM Oilers @ +350
COL Avalanche -1.5 @ +135
ANA Ducks @ +100
3 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $10.00

10/27/2013 16:09:21

10.00

0.00

rainman416 · 10-27-13, 04:04 PM

ADDING PARLAY: Last Parlay of the week!
OTT(ML) + TB(ML) + ANA(+1.5) + COL(ML) + TB/FLA OVER5.5 @+1154 x.5u LOSE

OTT Senators @ -130
TB Lightning @ -110
ANA Ducks +1.5 @ -260
COL Avalanche @ -230
Over 5.5 @ -115
5 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $10.00

10/27/2013 17:02:27

10.00

0.00

rainman416 · 10-27-13, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by matskoviche

any plays for today rainman? I'm thinking of a 2 game parlay, SJ/TBL. Any thoughts?

Hope you played this parlay! Not over by long stretch but would be a great start

rainman416 · 10-27-13, 06:56 PM

Big day in NFL! Wooooo

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/2646546-rainmans-nfl-plays-week-8-a.html

matskoviche · 10-27-13, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by rainman416

Hope you played this parlay! Not over by long stretch but would be a great start

yes i got a little over zealous at the window of the local casino and took 2 more cards as well. The ducks and the over in their game and av's and the over in the kings game.

rainman416 · 10-27-13, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by matskoviche

yes i got a little over zealous at the window of the local casino and took 2 more cards as well. The ducks and the over in their game and av's and the over in the kings game.

Nice Hit! OTT was noT! the play today. Only loss so far through NFL and NHL. Rollin on with COL+Green BAy Packers-7.0 tonight .

Your parlays look live to me

GL

Ser Pucks · 10-27-13, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by rainman416

Big day in NFL! Wooooo

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...-week-8-a.html

Understatement of the fukkin year! Nice picks MAN!!!

rainman416 · 10-27-13, 08:53 PM

LIVE BET (During 1st Period 16:45)
EDM(In Reg.) vs. LAK @+350 x1u LOSE

EDM Oilers @ +350
$20.00 Single

10/27/2013 21:51:08

20.00

0.00

ADDING (During 3rd Period 12:45 EDM 1 - 1 LAK)
EDM(ML) vs. LAK @+140 x1.5u LOSE

EDM Oilers @ +140
$30.00 Single

10/27/2013 23:36:56

30.00

0.00

rainman416 · 10-27-13, 11:23 PM

Tonight's Total = 5-6 -2.08 ($41.50)

FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET TYPE
Type of Bet Win/Loss Record Net Profit/Loss

Money Line 27-19 +13.31 UNITS ($266.25)

Puck Line 3-4 +1.95 UNITS ($39.00)

Totals 23-16-1 +4.85 UNITS ($97.00)

3-Way Side 10-11 +7.31 UNITS ($146.18)

Parlay 10-27 +.42 UNITS ($8.45)

Live 10-15 +1.26 UNITS ($25.28)

Game Props 0-3 -4.76 UNITS ($80.50)

Pure Total: 64-52-1 +22.45 UNITS ($449.02)

GRAND TOTAL: 84-94-1 +25.89 UNITS ($517.75)

*All plays are between .2 and 5 units in size
**Pure total is total calculated without the inclusion of parlays or live bets

FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET AMOUNT

Bet Size Win/Loss Record

x5 Units 0-0-0

x4 Units 2-0-0

x3 Units 2-1-0

x2.5 Units 1-1-0

x2 Units 13-9-0

x1.5 Units 4-4-0

x1 Units 40-39-1

x.5 Units 14-28-0

Other Amount (.2u-3u) 8-12-0

rainman416 · 10-27-13, 11:35 PM

Went 12-0 in NFL today. Didn't go crazy on the Parlay'ing though so not as big a turnout as 12-0 could yield obv. but about equivalent to 25 units in this thread

What a day!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/2646546-rainmans-nfl-plays-week-8-a.html

Was feelin' the Oilers going into OT, but they blew it in a Shootout! No worries, tomorrow gonna be a good day

Goodnight.

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 12:12 PM

TONIGHT'S PLAYS
PIT(In Reg.) vs. CAR @-115 x1u WIN
PIT vs. CAR OVER5.5 @-110 x.5u LOSE
Pitty has now lost 3 games straight. Justin Peters is in net for the Hurricanes, who have also lost their last two games. I see this game being high scoring, nothing crazy but I'm thinking 5-1, 4-2 or something like that. I would have taken PIT(ML) if I got it early enough at -145/-150 but now it's climbed all the way to -180, so I will take them to win in Reg. which I believe they will do anyways.

MTL vs. NYR(In Reg.) @+145 x1u LOSE
MTL vs. NYR(ML) @-115 x1u LOSE
The Rangers are 3-6 this season and all their games have been played on the road. They are coming home tonight for a big (and very late) home opener. Lundqvist is starting tonight after missing a couple of games with injury. MTL is starting their back-up Goalie (Budaj) tonight. This is far from a lock, as the Habs have been playing well and the Rangers have looked awful. But I think the Rangers have a decent squad and one of the best Goalies in the league, and they will be treating tonight like a chance for new life. I'm going to take them to win in Regulation as this game could easily end 3-1, 4-1 for NYR. I'm also laying 1 unit on the ML to cover, encase this ends up going to OT/SO.

MTL vs. NYR UNDER5.0 @-105 x1u WIN
Budaj is in net, yea, but he's not a bad back-up and the Rangers have struggled to score in general this year. I see Lundqvist shutting down shop tonight and keeping this a tight/grindy match-up.

CHI(ML) vs. MIN @-130 x2u WIN
The more I looked at this game the more I liked this ML play on CHI. Mostly a tail on another SBR poster here (Nino), but I also see a lot of value in this spot for the Hawks as they will be hot for revenge here after their 4-2 loss on Saturday.
PARLAY
PIT(ML) + CHI(ML) @+172 x1u WIN

PIT(ML) + NYR(ML) + CHI(ML) @+414 x.75u LOSE

Bet Details	Date/Time	Stake	Return
PIT Penguins @ -185 CHI Blackhawks @ -130 Round Robin/2 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $20.00	10/28/2013 18:01:05	20.00	54.51
CHI Blackhawks @ -130 $52.00 Single	10/28/2013 17:54:54	52.00	92.00
PIT Penguins @ -180 NY Rangers @ -115 CHI Blackhawks @ -130 3 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $15.00	10/28/2013 13:13:22	15.00	0.00
Under 5.0 @ -105 $21.00 Single	10/28/2013 13:12:57	21.00	41.00
NY Rangers @ -115 $23.00 Single	10/28/2013 13:12:57	23.00	0.00
NY Rangers @ +145 $20.00 Single	10/28/2013 13:12:57	20.00	0.00
Over 5.5 @ -110 $11.00 Single	10/28/2013 13:12:57	11.00	0.00
PIT Penguins @ -115 $23.00 Single	10/28/2013 13:12:57	23.00	43.00
Total for this period		185.00	230.51

matskoviche · 10-28-13, 12:58 PM

i like the parlay for tonight rainman i think I'm gonna roll with it.

Ser Pucks · 10-28-13, 01:02 PM

I like your plays for tonight RainMAN. I think I'm gonna hop on the MTL/NYR under as well. Budaj in net is not a problem, and I think Henrik will have a good game in the home opener. GL tonight!

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by matskoviche

i like the parlay for tonight rainman i think I'm gonna roll with it.

CHI worries me in that Parlay, as MIn tends to play them really well, is at home, and has Backstrom in net again.. but CHI is CHI and they have one of the best teams in the league, so I figured why not add them to that...

GL tonight!

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by Ser Pucks

I like your plays for tonight RainMAN. I think I'm gonna hop on the MTL/NYR under as well. Budaj in net is not a problem, and I think Henrik will have a good game in the home opener. GL tonight!

You too!

amarius87 · 10-28-13, 02:47 PM

rainman.. awesome picks this season, one thing i like with your betting style is 20 dollar units.. shows that small bets can still build up and youve done great!
i got the same parlay but i added in dallas, even though they are brutal on the road.. hopefully they want to get a win for ruff
what are your thoughts on the stars/sabres game?

matskoviche · 10-28-13, 03:18 PM

yeah i think im gonna change Chi to Chi/Min over 5.0, their last game had 8 goals scored.

imarkp · 10-28-13, 03:35 PM

unbelievable day in nfl, swept the board as well. my guess is books got hammered yest.... glad to see it. pretty new to hockey betting but have played a couple of you're ml picks with good results. stay hot!

Boxa · 10-28-13, 04:17 PM

Followed the plays, good luck!

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by amarius87

rainman.. awesome picks this season, one thing i like with your betting style is 20 dollar units.. shows that small bets can still build up and youve done great!
i got the same parlay but i added in dallas, even though they are brutal on the road.. hopefully they want to get a win for ruff
what are your thoughts on the stars/sabres game?

As far as the "Ruff returning to BUF for the first time" storyline, I think that gives an Edge to BUF who will be putting on the afterburners to stick it to their old coach. DAL has been shaky at best to start the season and will be heading to MTL after tonights game to play the Habs..

Like I stated in a previous post, I'm not really into betting BUF games as they are a bit of a wild card team this year.. They suck, but just when you think you've got them pegged.. They come out and fire on all cylinders and blow your parlay away.. Just about to talk myself into a small play on BUF here lol.. but I think that one will be a no play for me tonight. Too many inconsistencies in both these teams to make a confident play..

GL tonight!

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by matskoviche

yeah i think im gonna change Chi to Chi/Min over 5.0, their last game had 8 goals scored.

True their last game was a bit of a score fest. Careful on that OVER, as both these teams have solid Defence and Goaltending (assuming Backstrom is as healthy as they say).. Again.. tricky one to call for me.. 5.5 I would have considered an UNDER if it was 5.5 and a decent line, but with 5.0 I see it being a push about 40% of the time.. and can't pull the trigger on either side..

Will be looking for the Over for ya

GL

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by imarkp

unbelievable day in nfl, swept the board as well. my guess is books got hammered yest.... glad to see it. pretty new to hockey betting but have played a couple of you're ml picks with good results. stay hot!

Good to hear it! The more I look around the forum, the more I see big winners from this weekend in NFL, which makes sense cuz most of my plays were on the big "obvious" public sides, or at least, didn't scream upset. So yea, guessing the books took a mid-season hit yesterday, to bounce back from the killing they've been making..

I just wish I was still making crazy big bets like I did in Week 1, 2 & 3 of the season, I would have been +10k today!! haha, but seriously.. happier with my smaller, controlled play style, its much less stressful, and so far has been providing a decent return..

GL tonight

Originally posted by Boxa

Followed the plays, good luck!

Cheers!

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 04:56 PM

ADDING - one more play tonight CHI(ML) for 2 units. Listed above. + a 1 unit parlay that excludes the Rangers.

Lift2beFit · 10-28-13, 05:42 PM

GL tonight penn, with ya on penguins and Hawks, gonna tail your rangers ML and under bet tonight as well.

Hawks worry me too but..... they recently lost to the wild and your right, the hawks are the hawks and will come out guns blazin tonight.

BOL

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by Lift2beFit

GL tonight penn, with ya on penguins and Hawks, gonna tail your rangers ML and under bet tonight as well.

Hawks worry me too but..... they recently lost to the wild and your right, the hawks are the hawks and will come out guns blazin tonight.

BOL

Thanks Lift, you too. So far so good. Rangers looking flat.. whats new...

bmansell33 · 10-28-13, 08:52 PM

Anything on late game?

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 09:06 PM

No. But IF I played that game, I would take the +money on WAS.. just cuz it seems like an otherwise even matchup... but I'm not playing that one.. Gonna take it easy tonight on the West Coast... Get some sleep haha.

GL

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 09:10 PM

Jeez. Really thought NYR would have more offence in this game.. HAven't actually watched one of their games in a while but this is pretty bad.. Lots of chances, but no finish and no real rhythm.
Looking at the Bets on this game.. I realize, I should have limited the (In Reg.) play to .5u.. and increased the O/U play to 1.5 units.. that way 1 of 2 will break even on the game... As it turns out I weighted the side heavier than the total, and it cost me 1 unit tonight.

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 09:27 PM

Summary by Week

Date	Week #	W/L Record	Net Unit W/L	Net Currency W/L
Oct. 1st-6th	Week 1	19-20	+8.40	+$168.00
Oct. 7th-13th	Week 2	16-20	+5.91	+$118.17
Oct. 14th-20th	Week 3	23-21	+8.56	+$171.15
Oct. 21st-27th	Week 4	26-33-1	+3.03	+$60.43
	Total	84-94-1	+25.89	+$517.75

rainman416 · 10-28-13, 09:40 PM

Tonight's Total = 4-4 +2.28 ($45.51)

FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET TYPE
Type of Bet Win/Loss Record Net Profit/Loss

Money Line 28-20 +14.16 UNITS ($283.25)

Puck Line 3-4 +1.95 UNITS ($39.00)

Totals 24-17-1 +5.30 UNITS ($106.00)

3-Way Side 11-12 +7.31 UNITS ($146.18)

Parlay 11-28 +1.40 UNITS ($27.96)

Live 10-15 +1.26 UNITS ($25.28)

Game Props 0-3 -4.76 UNITS ($80.50)

Pure Total: 67-55-1 +23.75 UNITS ($475.02)

GRAND TOTAL: 88-98-1 +28.16 UNITS ($563.26)

*All plays are between .2 and 5 units in size
**Pure total is total calculated without the inclusion of parlays or live bets

FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET AMOUNT

Bet Size Win/Loss Record

x5 Units 0-0-0

x4 Units 2-0-0

x3 Units 2-1-0

x2.5 Units 1-1-0

x2 Units 14-9-0

x1.5 Units 4-4-0

x1 Units 43-41-1

x.5 Units 14-29-0

Other Amount (.2u-3u) 8-13-0

matskoviche · 10-29-13, 01:08 AM

Looking ahead to tomorrow's games the only ones i have a hunch on so far are TBL over NJD, for -110 it seems like a cheap bet, as well as NYI over NYR. Vanek will be playing tomorrow on the Islanders top line alongside Tavers, and with as flat as the Rangers looked tonight i can't see them coming out with a much better effort tomorrow night. Thoughts?