Rainman's NHL Thread 2012/2013 - $20 Unit System

rainman416 · 10-23-13, 02:43 PM

TONIGHT'S PLAYS
OTT(In Reg.) vs. DET @+210 x1u WIN

OTT(ML) vs. DET @+130 x.5u WIN

OTT vs. DET UNDER5.5 @-130 x2u LOSE

Usually I would take a guy like Alfy vs. his old team to come out and win, but I can see the opposite effect here with those pesky Sens in town looking to take it to their old captain. Tons of respect between these guys but lets face it, Spezza, Karlson, Ryan, Michalek + Anderson between the pipes, is a great squad to bet on when they're sitting +220 in reg and +130 ML..

My only concern is that DET just got shut out completely and I usually like a team getting shut out to bounce back strong next game.. Either way.. I went with the under here, as both these teams have good goaltending and can shut teams down with the trap play.

Bet Details	Date/Time	Stake	Return
OTT Senators @ +130 $10.00 Single	10/23/2013 15:40:01	10.00	23.00
Under 5.5 @ -130 $52.00 Single	10/23/2013 15:38:41	52.00	0.00
OTT Senators @ +210 $20.00 Single	10/23/2013 15:38:32	20.00	62.00
Total for this period		82.00	85.00

Ser Pucks · 10-23-13, 05:41 PM

I like your picks tonight too... I think both teams play a hard tight game. I don't see Ottawa scoring much and hopefully Anderson holds the Sens in when needed. Last night was rough so I'm trying to take my loses in stride and not go crazy the next night or I'd probably be on Detroit as well.

Kill it tonight Bud!!

rainman416 · 10-23-13, 05:52 PM

Thanks. My early lean was DET, but the more I looked into the game the less I wanted to lay chalk with them.. I've been having okay luck with taking Dogs at around this price, would rather be on OTT and lose then DET and lose thats for sure.. Gonna roll with it and see what happens. This under seems a little suspect though... too easy even.. Prolly just being paranoid.

Lets get it!

Cause-I-Need-It · 10-23-13, 08:24 PM

What do ya think about live bet Ott -1.5 @ -200?

rainman416 · 10-23-13, 08:44 PM

haha. that woulda been a solid bet as it turns out.. Was already on them though so never really thought to double down... but yea.. 6-1 now..

rainman416 · 10-23-13, 08:46 PM

The Gut strikes again!! Right before gametime I was about to do a Season 1st and hedge out of the UNDER5.5 play by laying 2u on the OVER which by that point had moved all the way to +120. Decided not to cuz it's usually not good to go against your first instinct.. Shoulda Woulda Coulda.. Okay.. Over it..

Having said that, as I mentioned earlier, I was on DET until I finished looking over everything and realized that OTT had way better value.. so maybe the first instinct isn't all it's hyped up to be.

Hmmmm..?

rainman416 · 10-23-13, 09:01 PM

Tonight's Total = 2-1 +.15($3.00)

FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET TYPE
Type of Bet Win/Loss Record Net Profit/Loss

Money Line 23-14 +16.91 UNITS ($338.25)

Puck Line 3-4 +1.95 UNITS ($39.00)

Totals 17-14-1 +.93 UNITS ($18.50)

3-Way Side 7-8 +.71 UNITS ($14.18)

Parlay 10-18 +7.42 UNITS ($148.45)

Live 10-9 +5.15 UNITS ($95.28)

Game Props 0-3 -4.76 UNITS ($80.50)

Pure Total: 60-52-1 +21.24 UNITS ($424.80)

GRAND TOTAL: 70-70-1 +28.66 UNITS ($573.25)

*All plays are between .2 and 5 units in size
**Pure total is total calculated without inclusion of parlays

FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET AMOUNT

Bet Size Win/Loss Record

x5 Units 0-0-0

x4 Units 2-0-0

x3 Units 1-1-0

x2.5 Units 1-1-0

x2 Units 11-6-0

x1.5 Units 3-3-0

x1 Units 34-29-1

x.5 Units 10-21-0

Other Amount (.2u-3u) 8-9-0

rainman416 · 10-23-13, 09:02 PM

Baby steps right?! haha. Hope some of you jumped on the Pesky Sens with me, perfect example of why they're known as "The Pesky Sens"... Soooooo Pessky.

Big Card Tomorrow night, gonna go take a look

Goodnight.

mattyg93 · 10-23-13, 09:13 PM

Been following since the start. Loving it.

Tarboroken · 10-23-13, 10:21 PM

Thanks Rainman!

rainman416 · 10-24-13, 10:53 AM

Thanks Fella's, gonna be a good season, I've decided that even with the new job.. i'm going to keep this going, at least in some way, possibly less intense.. but I want to finish out the season on record, and we're just gettting started so.

Looking over the card today, I got a couple early leans on some totals, and a few dogs that may have some value, but I'm not in a trigger pull mood this early in the day.

Going out to see a David Bowie exhibit at the AGO lol. Random last minute invite.. one more week of "Unemployed Lloyd" status.. Might as well go out n' do some shit. Don't know a thing about David Bowie.. Gym after. THEN. The picks will roll in.. Sometime around 6:30PM for a very last minute card... I already missed the line movement on the two totals I want (now sitting at Chalky -135 and -125 each) so.. not gonna worry about missing "good lines" ..

Just encase you're wondering... early lean forecast.. here is what I've got, but again, these may change around 6:30PM

CGY/DAL OVER5.5
WAS/EDM OVER5.5
WAS(ML) vs. EDM
CHI(ML) vs. TB
SJ vs. BOS - TIE
NYR vs. PHI - TIE
VAN vs. NJ(ML)

thats about it.. love to hear peeps thoughts on those games... or any of tonight's action for that matter... will be checking in throughout the afternoon.

Ser Pucks · 10-24-13, 04:30 PM

That's good man.. might as well keep er going, even if you just post your plays or whatever. Your input is much appreciated!

I like your WAS/EDM O, I can see Washington winning the game too. I think Tampa comes out real hard tonight with 5 days rest after their 5-0 shelacking from the Bruins I think? Ben Bishop sh*t the bed that game so I expect a strong game from him tonight too...Kinda with the crowd and leaning the Sharks too but I don't know if I'll bet them or not....take my opinions with a grain of salt as I've been cold lately. Still trying to figure out what I'm doing for the night as well..

404_not_found · 10-24-13, 04:59 PM

Wow, you see NJ ... Shit, I was on the Nucks! Now, It's hard to make a choice!

rainman416 · 10-24-13, 05:02 PM

That games close to a toss up, i jus like NJ on account of their desperation, Schnieder, home adv. and nucks are inconsistent and coming off a win so... At + money value on NJ imo. But again no play for me yet. On route home to make tonights plays

404_not_found · 10-24-13, 05:07 PM

Ok, I'll wait for your Picks ^^

rainman416 · 10-24-13, 06:00 PM

TONIGHT'S PLAYS
WAS vs. EDM OVER5.5 @-120 x1u LOSE
This one looks to have the making of a nice high scoring affair, not much to say about it, other than that it's my fave play of the day. Only 1 unit on account of the "larger than usual" parlay that this play is also in. Technically that makes this a 2.25u play..

WPG(ML) vs. NSH @+120 x1u LOSE
Random gut play here. WPG high tempo loose team that has an ability to score in bunches, while NASHville is a bit of a snooze fest team, good shut down D + an amazing starting goalie in RINNE, but he won't be in tonight as their back-up Carter Hutton will be getting his second start as a Pred. He' looked pretty good in his first game, but I think he'll give up the W in this one to the faster, hungrier Jets.

SJ vs. BOS(ML) @-105 x1u WIN
SJ vs. BOS - TIE @+250 x.5u LOSE
I just feel this one. and also think there is a good chance BOS wins this game.. possibly even delivery SJ' their first loss in regulation.

NYR vs. PHI - TIE @+280 x.5u LOSE
Another hard one to call, tight.. Too tight..

Parlay of the Day
WAS/EDM OVER5.5 + PHI(ML) + BOS(ML) @+497 x1.25u LOSE
Love this parlay. Also got a $20.00 loyalty bonus from Bet365 which I'm using on this.
Lecavalier is back for Philly and will be playing on a line with Giroux, Rick Nash + Callahan still out, starting centre for NYR is Brassard.......... yea.... Mason in net against the backup in NYR which makes this an official trigger pull..

Lets get another nice parlay!

Lombatso · 10-24-13, 06:01 PM

in a bind tonight need your intelligent picks ASAP lol

Lombatso · 10-24-13, 06:01 PM

wow just as i posted that lmao..thanks and good luck to all

rainman416 · 10-24-13, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by Lombatso

wow just as i posted that lmao..thanks and good luck to all

GL tonight

rainman416 · 10-24-13, 08:28 PM

ADDING
PHX(ML) vs. LAK @+140 x2u LOSE

Bet Details	Date/Time	Stake	Return
PHX Coyotes @ +140 $40.00 Single	10/24/2013 21:27:46	40.00	0.00
PHI Flyers @ -150 Over 5.5 @ -120 BOS Bruins @ -105 3 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $25.00	10/24/2013 18:48:35	25.00	0.00
WIN Jets @ +120 $20.00 Single	10/24/2013 18:46:30	20.00	0.00
Tie @ +280 $10.00 Single	10/24/2013 18:42:30	10.00	0.00
Over 5.5 @ -120 $24.00 Single	10/24/2013 18:42:30	24.00	0.00
Tie @ +250 $10.00 Single	10/24/2013 18:42:30	10.00	0.00
BOS Bruins @ -105 $22.00 Single	10/24/2013 18:42:30	22.00	42.00
Total for this period		151.00	42.00

rainman416 · 10-24-13, 08:36 PM

WOWOWOWOWOWO are you kidding me hahahahaha this is uncanny...

3rd night I ever picked a Tie.. 2 tonight though.. but yea... First Tie i picked this year.. was tied until 30 seconds left in the 3rd then the team I backed on top of the tie won. Second time I pick a tie. same thing happens, the team I pick to win, blows the tie with about 2 mins left and wins.

NOW tonight! Boston for the TIE then WIN? and they score WITH 0.8 SECONDS LEFT! I mean.. they get the win.. but WTF is with these ties haha, one has to hit, but if its gonna miss.. I'm asking that the next one miss by more than .8 seconds.. not sure I wanna go through that again haha.

Wow.

rainman416 · 10-24-13, 08:45 PM

LIVE BET
Minor Hedge here, just to save a Unit if this Parlay misses...
(4 Scoreless Mins into the 1st Period)
WAS vs. EDM UNDER5.5 @-125 x1u WIN

Under 5.5 @ -125
$25.00 Single

10/24/2013 21:43:45

25.00

45.00

rainman416 · 10-24-13, 08:56 PM

LIVE BET
At start of EDM Power Play in 1st Period.
EDM to score first goal @-125 x1u LOSE

EDM Oilers to score 1st goal @ -125
$25.00 Single

10/24/2013 21:55:55

25.00

0.00

Exhale.. not very smart on my part... had the play highlighted at +105 during even strength... then when they went on the PP I jumped on it, even though the odds jumped to -125.. Gonna put the laptop down haha.

Ser Pucks · 10-24-13, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by rainman416

WOWOWOWOWOWO are you kidding me hahahahaha this is uncanny...

3rd night I ever picked a Tie.. 2 tonight though.. but yea... First Tie i picked this year.. was tied until 30 seconds left in the 3rd then the team I backed on top of the tie won. Second time I pick a tie. same thing happens, the team I pick to win, blows the tie with about 2 mins left and wins.

NOW tonight! Boston for the TIE then WIN? and they score WITH 0.8 SECONDS LEFT! I mean.. they get the win.. but WTF is with these ties haha, one has to hit, but if its gonna miss.. I'm asking that the next one miss by more than .8 seconds.. not sure I wanna go through that again haha.

Wow.

Crazy sh*t brother. You can't come any closer.

rainman416 · 10-24-13, 10:05 PM

Things are looking bleak in the remaining games, I've filled in accordingly, if things change I'll update..

Tonight's Total = 2-7 -5.7 ($114.00)

FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET TYPE
Type of Bet Win/Loss Record Net Profit/Loss

Money Line 24-16 +14.91 UNITS ($298.25)

Puck Line 3-4 +1.95 UNITS ($39.00)

Totals 17-15-1 -.28 UNITS ($5.50)

3-Way Side 7-10 -.29 UNITS ($5.82)

Parlay 10-19 +6.17 UNITS ($123.45)

Live 10-11 +4.51 UNITS ($90.28)

Game Props 0-3 -4.76 UNITS ($80.50)

Pure Total: 62-58-1 +16.79 UNITS ($335.80)

GRAND TOTAL: 72-77-1 +22.96 UNITS ($459.25)

*All plays are between .2 and 5 units in size
**Pure total is total calculated without inclusion of parlays

FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET AMOUNT

Bet Size Win/Loss Record

x5 Units 0-0-0

x4 Units 2-0-0

x3 Units 1-1-0

x2.5 Units 1-1-0

x2 Units 11-7-0

x1.5 Units 3-3-0

x1 Units 36-32-1

x.5 Units 10-23-0

Other Amount (.2u-3u) 8-10-0

rainman416 · 10-25-13, 11:54 AM

Worse night of the season last night. Following the best night of the season, the day before.. Hmmm.. What a tease in both the WAS/EDM game who finally reached the 5 goal mark around 18:22 into the 3rd and actually just about covered the over with a near miss from EDM late. Then the PHX 1st period collapse where they crawled back to even it up, just to blow it again and lose 7-4.
Just that kind of night.

Moving forward..

Tonight's line in the Toronto / CBJ game looks so fishy. My play would usually be to take the reverse side of a fishy line like that, and that would be a play on CBJ(ML). But I'm a leafs fan, Clarkson is back tonight, and the Leafs are better than CBJ. I've gotta play on the Leafs tonight. Can't miss this line. Even if it turns out to be TGTBT.

Also looking at the OVER in the NYI/PIT game. With Zatkoff in net for PIT that helps this play along, even with Fleury the OVER was looking juicy. I hit it early in the morning at -120 for 1.5u.

Colorado looks like a win today. Hard to trust Justin Peters in net, or whoever else they may throw in (unconfirmed as of yet). but yea. Without ward in net, COL should be able to hand CAR another big L tonight in Mile High City. This will probably be an IN REG play on COL, with a ML play as part of a parlay.

I'm sitting in a dark room with no power at the moment.. no coffee.. not even a Jay yet today.. Gonna pull myself together and put together the plays for the day.

rainman416 · 10-25-13, 12:03 PM

TODAY'S PLAYS
NYI vs. PIT OVER5.5 @-120 x1.5u WIN

TOR(ML) vs. CBJ @+100 x2u LOSE

CAR vs. COL(In Reg.) @-125 x2u WIN

ANA(ML) vs. OTT @+125 x1u WIN

ANA(In Reg.) vs. OTT @+200 x3u WIN

PARLAY'S
NYI/PIT OVER5.5 + TOR(+1.5) + COL(ML) @+251 x1u LOSE

TOR(ML) + COL(ML) @+195 x1u LOSE

STL(ML) + COL(ML) @+121 x1u LOSE

Bet Details	Date/Time	Stake	Return
STL Blues @ -200 COL Avalanche @ -210 Round Robin/2 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $20.00	10/25/2013 13:07:29	20.00	0.00
COL Avalanche @ -210 TOR Maple Leafs @ +100 Round Robin/2 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $20.00	10/25/2013 12:58:59	20.00	0.00
COL Avalanche @ -125 $50.00 Single	10/25/2013 12:58:21	50.00	90.00
ANA Ducks @ +200 $60.00 Single	10/25/2013 12:58:07	60.00	180.00
ANA Ducks @ +125 $20.00 Single	10/25/2013 12:57:07	20.00	45.00
TOR Maple Leafs @ +100 $40.00 Single	10/25/2013 12:56:25	40.00	0.00
Over 5.5 @ -130 TOR Maple Leafs +1.5 @ -290 COL Avalanche @ -210 3 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $20.00	10/25/2013 12:35:28	20.00	0.00
Over 5.5 @ -120 $36.00 Single	10/25/2013 08:55:00	36.00	66.00
Total for this period		266.00	381.00

rainman416 · 10-25-13, 12:10 PM

Big night tonight, going out with some buddies to watch the Leafs game. CLARKSON's SUSPENSION OVER, Finally.... Gonna be a great game.

BOL to all

rainman416 · 10-25-13, 01:13 PM

Guessing there is going to be some upsets tonight, not a good night to tail me FYI. Tilty feeling card. Gonna be a bloodbath! Careful

Manel88 · 10-25-13, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by rainman416

Guessing there is going to be some upsets tonight, not a good night to tail me FYI. Tilty feeling card. Gonna be a bloodbath! Careful

Nah... i agree with you except in the Senators game. I also think the Islanders have a bet chance to win than the odds suggest given the fact the Pens are going with Zatkoff as their goalie. Anyway, the over is the most logical play

Ser Pucks · 10-25-13, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by rainman416

Big night tonight, going out with some buddies to watch the Leafs game. CLARKSON's SUSPENSION OVER, Finally.... Gonna be a great game.

BOL to all

Clarkson is gonna be fukkin pumped right up tonight...I hope he doesn't go too crazy and get roughing penalties... I hear he's playing with Mason Raymond and Bolland. That line is going to light the fukkin lamp!! Enjoy the game, GL on your plays!!!

Lift2beFit · 10-25-13, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by rainman416

Worse night of the season last night. Following the best night of the season, the day before.. Hmmm.. What a tease in both the WAS/EDM game who finally reached the 5 goal mark around 18:22 into the 3rd and actually just about covered the over with a near miss from EDM late. Then the PHX 1st period collapse where they crawled back to even it up, just to blow it again and lose 7-4.
Just that kind of night.

Moving forward..

Tonight's line in the Toronto / CBJ game looks so fishy. My play would usually be to take the reverse side of a fishy line like that, and that would be a play on CBJ(ML). But I'm a leafs fan, Clarkson is back tonight, and the Leafs are better than CBJ. I've gotta play on the Leafs tonight. Can't miss this line. Even if it turns out to be TGTBT.

Also looking at the OVER in the NYI/PIT game. With Zatkoff in net for PIT that helps this play along, even with Fleury the OVER was looking juicy. I hit it early in the morning at -120 for 1.5u.

Colorado looks like a win today. Hard to trust Justin Peters in net, or whoever else they may throw in (unconfirmed as of yet). but yea. Without ward in net, COL should be able to hand CAR another big L tonight in Mile High City. This will probably be an IN REG play on COL, with a ML play as part of a parlay.

I'm sitting in a dark room with no power at the moment.. no coffee.. not even a Jay yet today.. Gonna pull myself together and put together the plays for the day.

Hit the jay and make the play my friend

I will also be going with the leafs and avs tonight so goodluck. Hopefully tonights games can help pay for a nice little sack haha

rainman416 · 10-25-13, 02:16 PM

Yea the ANA vs. OTT game will be what busts me tonight prolly, but i love that +money on a rebound for anahiem,

rainman416 · 10-25-13, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by Lift2beFit

Hit the jay and make the play my friend

I will also be going with the leafs and avs tonight so goodluck. Hopefully tonights games can help pay for a nice little sack haha

As we speak

Boxa · 10-25-13, 02:38 PM

First of all, hello to everyone here. I found out about this forum few days ago and started following your picks rainman416, kinda think you're cool guy and also I found your picks interesting and fun. I'm from Europe btw and I hope you guys who can attend to these games will have great time and have fun, to bad I cant attend, just watching on tv, but one day I hope I'll get the chance. Followed your picks tonite also, wish you and everyone else here luck with tonite's plays and I hope we will get some cash :P Also, sorry for not to good English but I guess you all get the idea. Cant wait for games to start