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Summary by Week
Week # W/L Record Net Unit W/L Net Currency W/L Week 1 19-20 +8.40 +$168.00 Week 2 16-20 +5.91 +$118.17 Week 3 23-21 +8.56 +$171.15 Total 58-61 +22.86 +$457.32 Comment -
TODAY'S PLAYS
SJ vs. DET(ML) @+105 x1u LOSE
These teams are pretty even in my opinion. San Jose has the hotter start to the season for sure, but Detroit is a live dog here at home after a brutal 3rd period collapse to an old division rival on Saturday night. This should be a close game, so I'm going to go with the +money team.
SJ vs. DET UNDER5.5 @-125 x1u WIN
With all the offensive weapons on the ice, you would think the obvious play here is the OVER5.5, however, I find that when hotshot teams like this come together, both tend to focus on "shutting down the other teams offence" and in the process, the game ends up totalling around 4-5 goals. I had originally set this play to 2 units, however, I then (accidentally) noticed that one of the free-picks on SBR's NHL homepage is the under in this game, and those articles are pure fade material. That in addition to the fact that SJ is averaging 4.88 goals per game brought me back down to earth and will make this a 1 unit play.
SJ vs. DET (FINAL SCORE 3-1 SJ) @+1600 x.2u LOSE
SJ vs. DET (FINAL SCORE 3-1 DET) @+1600 x.2u LOSE
My gut is telling me this game will end with a final score of 3-1.. Hopefully for DET, but I'm going to balance the game prop bet on both sides so that if the game goes 3-1 final on either side, these puppies will payout a whopping $68.00 or 3.4 UNITS.
COL vs. PIT (1st Period OVER1.5) @-125 x2.5u LOSE
I hovered around this game for a while this morning, trying to figure out how to play it. My instincts are on the COL side, and I may indeed pull the trigger later today with .5 or 1 Unit ML play for them, but Giguere is in net, and the Penguins are really hard to bet against. However, I do like the hot-start (to the game) angle here as there is a ton of offensive talent on both ends of the ice, and I still don't buy that Fleury is back to his peak performance days. The big storyline in this game will be the 1st overall picks and Cole Harbour natives Nathan Mackinnon and Sidney Crosby going head to head for the first time. The first period over 1.5 is where I'm liking the money in this game, as I believe these teams mayyyyyy settle in after that and end up not covering the game long OVER of 5.5.
COL(ML) vs. PIT @+140 x.5u WIN
It didn't take long after the above write-up for me to pull the trigger on this one, it's not often that you see a 7-1 team getting this kind of juice. Penguins are amazing, and could easily win this game, but I'm feeling cheeky today and I love betting +money on solid teams so here is the dog play of the year so far.
COL(In Reg.) vs. PIT@+220 x1u WIN
If they're going to win, why not win in regulation? +220 is crazy, COL hasn't lost on the road, while PIT is undefeated at home, it would be somewhat unexpected to see PIT go to OT/SO two games in a row, so IF they lose today, I see it being in regulation. Tonight we will find out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an unmovable object.
PARLAY
DET(ML) + SJ/DET UNDER5.5 @+269 x.5u LOSE
This is just a bonus add-on to existing action, ideal finish tonight = 3-1 final for DET.
*I'm going to count the two game prop (final score) bets as 1 on the win/loss record for the season, treating it as a round robin parlay for $8.00 that would have paid out +800 if 1 of 2 hit. (Both could not hit obv.)Bet Details Date/Time Stake Return COL Avalanche @ +220
$20.00 Single10/21/2013 12:51:09 20.00 64.00 COL Avalanche @ +140
$10.00 Single10/21/2013 12:51:09 10.00 24.00 DET Red Wings @ +105
Under 5.5 @ -125
Round Robin/2 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $10.0010/21/2013 12:16:02 10.00 0.00 DET Red Wings @ +105
$20.00 Single10/21/2013 12:15:02 20.00 0.00 Over 1.5 @ -125
$62.50 Single10/21/2013 12:15:02 62.50 0.00 DET Red Wings to win 3-1 @ +1600
$4.00 Single10/21/2013 12:15:02 4.00 0.00 SJ Sharks to win 3-1 @ +1600
$4.00 Single10/21/2013 12:15:02 4.00 0.00 Under 5.5 @ -125
$25.00 Single10/21/2013 12:15:02 25.00 45.00 Total for this period 130.50 133.00 Comment -
Sounds good to me
Remember you can go up to "Thread Tools" and "Subscribe" to the thread and it will send you e-mail updates each time there is a new post.. Not that I'm trying to market this thread really, its more of a betting journal/tracker for myself, but if you do want to follow along, that is the best way!
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Picks look good bud. I agree with you on the Detroit pick, it's gonna be a close game and with Detroit being the home dog, you gotta go with them. I'm thinking the same with Colorado, I can't believe they're a +155 dog right now...very tempting to take them too with the odds like that, but ya very hard to bet against the Pens at home. I'm also leaning under for both the Detroit & Pittsburgh games. I agree that when offensive powerhouses get together, the other teams try to shut them down like good teams do. Public sees offense offense offense and thinks over, but that's not usually the case. GL tonight!Comment -
Big Monday night in the NHL with only 3 games, but two of those games should be wildly entertaining and are very hard to call. My plays for today are simply to add excitement to the game and the thread is doing well so why not get some +money plays in on close games. If the first period of the COL/PIT game goes OVER 1.5, the play on COL will be sort of a free roll..
BOL tonight!
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Glad to hear it, really tough to call these games, but with bets on both dogs, it will be a great night to watch the games and just love the action, not going to let it tilt me if both these sides (COL/DET) lose.
Agree with your public comment their, and that is exactly what I was thinking, can be so tempting to take overs in these kinds of games, but I just don't see it, and it often goes UNDER.
Cheers.
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I like the under 5.5 and detriot but now a little weary on the under because as you mentioned the SBR who post picks are pure fade, they can't even pick their own ass. However, I'm on the Pens tonight, pens at home, should be pretty rested, only game was Canucks AT home EARLY afternoon while Edmonton played later in the day and were in Buffalo so travelling etcs.
GLComment -
I think you mean Colorado there..
but yea those articles are cold places to find picks... Having said that, I don't believe they are capable of losing every pick, that in and of itself would be a talent that those cappers wish they could have been born with... i.e. being a perfect fade would be almost as valuable as being a perfect winner lol.
I'm not prepared to cancel my UNDER pick entirely just because some goomba cooler fade boy jumped on too..
Not a terrible pick on PIT, but when they're up against a 7-1 team who has been running as hot or arguably even hotter than PIT (since no one expected this from COL, whereas PIT is pretty much on pace with their expectations) I would have liked to see PIT-130 or so..
At -160 I don't see the value...
Having said that.. PIT is the better team and at home so can't argue.
More than a winning card tonight, I want a crazy and exciting couple of games which I'm sure is what we're in store for.
BOLComment -
Added 1 more unit to the COL/PIT 1st period over 1.5Comment -
Oops ha shit. Not lookin too good for that 1st per. Over...gonna need a quick 2
Edit:
Fcuk. missed that one by a couple..Comment -
ADDING LIVE BET: During 2nd Period COL 1 - 0 PIT
COL(In Reg.) vs. PIT @+105 x2u WIN
Giguere is looking very sharp and Crosby has gone missing.. Couldn't resist.
COL Avalanche @ +105
$40.00 Single10/21/2013 20:48:09 40.00 82.00 Comment -
Looking good in the Sharks/Wings game for the under 5.5! Now Detroit just needs to score and all is good!Comment -
Crazy save for Niemi there in the SO.. rough finish, but COL closed the deal nicely... Soo pissed though I benched Giguere in my Fantasy league... was not banking on that shutout at all.
Ah wellComment -
Yea det was a close one. Good call on COL. Going to make any plays in the last game tonight?!Comment -
Thinking about it now.. may just watch the first period and make a live play late in that or on the intermission. If I do I'll post it right after
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LIVE BET
CGY vs. LAK UNDER4.5 @-125 x.5u LOSE
CGY vs. LAK (In Reg.) @-139 x1u LOSE
ADDING
CGY vs. LAK UNDER4.5 @+105 x.5u LOSE
*I'm going to count the two live bets on the UNDER as 1 on the win/loss record for the season...Bet Details Date/Time Stake Return Under 4.5 @ +105
$10.00 Single10/21/2013 23:29:44 10.00 0.00 LA Kings @ -139
$27.80 Single10/21/2013 23:08:50 27.80 0.00 Under 4.5 @ -125
$12.00 Single10/21/2013 23:01:21 12.00 0.00 Comment -
ADDING another half unit on the UNDER 4.5 now sitting at +105 (During first Intermission)Comment -
Hi Rainman,
You have very good results, congratulations. i'll try to follow you for NHL. With less money for me and no live bets. But I think it will be profitable to me. Just a quick question: When you say "ML" it's with OT included? And Will you have a same thread for NBA?
Ps: Sorry for my English , I do my best :/Comment -
Thanks.. No NBA for me.. and this thread may only last a couple more weeks as I have a new job starting on Nov. 4th that will take most of my time.. As for ML plays, yes, they include OT.. When it's a Money Line (ML) bet, the team just has to win.. in any way shape or form.Comment -
Tonight's Total =4-6 -1.52($30.30)
FULL-SEASON TRACKING SHEET
*All plays are between .25 and 5 units in sizeNHL Money Line 20-14 +14.36 UNITS ($287.25) Puck Line 3-4 +1.95 UNITS ($39.00) Totals 14-13 +.53 UNITS ($10.50) 3-Way Side 6-7 +2.21 UNITS ($44.18) Parlay 9-17 +1.56 UNITS ($31.22) Live 10-9 +5.15 UNITS ($95.28) Game Props 0-3 -4.76 UNITS ($80.50) Pure Total: (Without Parlays) 53-50 +19.79 UNITS ($395.80) GRAND TOTAL: 62-67 +21.35 UNITS ($427.02) Comment -
Oh bad luck for me, you will stop (if I well understand). Let's make money till this date!
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Sucks to hear this thread might stop. Congrats on the job though! (always good to hear).
I wanted to make a little play today and see what you think.
Parlay
Blackhawks -176 ML
Montreal - 201 MLComment -
I like it but I would worry about betting against EDM right now for those kind of odds.. They are a much better team than they are getting credit for.. Habs are hot though so could be alright.. just too heavy a price imo at -201Comment -
TONIGHT'S PLAY'S
CHI(In Reg.) vs. FLA @-120 x3u LOSE
VAN(ML) vs. NYI @-120 x1u WIN
EDM(ML) vs. MTL @+180 x.5u WIN
ANA vs. TOR OVER5.5 @-115 x1u WIN
WAS vs. WPG OVER5.5 @+100 x1u WIN
NJ vs. CBJ UNDER 5.0 @-125 x1u PUSH
NSH vs. MIN UNDER 5.0 @-120 x1u WIN
PARLAY OF THE DAY
CHI(ML) + NJ(ML) @+242 x1u LOSE
ADDED PARLAY: Was out driving to the game watching location and put this together. Didn't have time to post it, but here it is for the record.Bet Details Date/Time Stake Return EDM Oilers @ +180
$10.00 Single10/22/2013 18:39:44 10.00 28.00 CHI Blackhawks @ -120
$72.00 Single10/22/2013 17:55:24 72.00 0.00 CHI Blackhawks @ -192
NJ Devils @ +125
Round Robin/2 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $20.0010/22/2013 17:45:54 20.00 0.00 VAN Canucks @ -120
$24.00 Single10/22/2013 17:43:58 24.00 44.00 Under 5.0 @ -125
$25.00 Single10/22/2013 17:40:41 25.00 45.00 Over 5.5 @ -115
$23.00 Single10/22/2013 17:40:41 23.00 43.00 Under 5.0 @ -120
$24.00 Single10/22/2013 17:40:41 24.00 24.00 Over 5.5 @ +100
$20.00 Single10/22/2013 17:40:41 20.00 40.00 Total for this period 218.00 224.00
TOR(ML) + EDM(ML) + CHI(ML) + VAN(ML) @+1363 x.46u WIN
EDM Oilers @ +180
TOR Maple Leafs @ -110
CHI Blackhawks @ -192
VAN Canucks @ -125
4 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $9.1510/22/2013 18:41:40 9.15 146.38 Comment -
What a sad effort by the Blackhawks!
CHI (reg) + CANUCKS ML + MIN/NASHVILLE under.
Couldn't hold the panthers out!Comment -
I hope Chicago wins this SO for your parlay brother.......
BAAAAAAM! Thank you Patrick Sharp. Nice hit man... hell of a night for you.Comment -
What a brutal 3rd period lead blow for CHI I agree... that was a "rollin w/ no sweat" game from the start... TGTBT (To good to be true) that I would hit that 3unit play lol
So far the bigger plays are.. I believe..
5u (none played yet)
4u 2-0
3u 0-2Comment -
Tonight's Total = 6-2-1 +7.16($143.23)
FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET TYPE
*All plays are between .2 and 5 units in sizeType of Bet Win/Loss Record Net Profit/Loss Money Line 22-14 +16.26 UNITS ($325.25) Puck Line 3-4 +1.95 UNITS ($39.00) Totals 17-13-1 +3.53 UNITS ($70.50) 3-Way Side 6-8 -1.39 UNITS ($27.82) Parlay 10-18 +7.42 UNITS ($148.45) Live 10-9 +5.15 UNITS ($95.28) Game Props 0-3 -4.76 UNITS ($80.50) Pure Total: 58-51-1 +21.09 UNITS ($421.80) GRAND TOTAL: 68-69-1 +28.51 UNITS ($570.25)
**Pure total is total calculated without inclusion of parlays
FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET AMOUNT
Bet Size Win/Loss Record x5 Units 0-0-0 x4 Units 2-0-0 x3 Units 1-1-0 x2.5 Units 1-1-0 x2 Units 11-5-0 x1.5 Units 3-3-0 x1 Units 33-29-1 x.5 Units 9-21-0 Other Amount (.2u-3u) 8-9-0 Comment -
Just crunched the numbers on the bet size tracking sheet.. interesting to see that all are even or above .500 except for the .5 units and OTHER units, amount.. Other is mostly .75, 1.25, .20 etc.
Maybe need to start making some of the "would be" .5 plays into no plays and see how that works out..
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Thanks for your hard work, very much appreciated.Comment -
i noticed the exact same pattern going on with my picks, and what I've done recently is just scale back my would-be 1 unit plays to now 0.5 units, and so on and so forthJust crunched the numbers on the bet size tracking sheet.. interesting to see that all are even or above .500 except for the .5 units and OTHER units, amount.. Other is mostly .75, 1.25, .20 etc.
Maybe need to start making some of the "would be" .5 plays into no plays and see how that works out..Comment -
Good Call, I may consider doing the same depending on how the next couple of weeks turn out.
Also need to just start asking myself, "did I reduce that play to .5 unit because I know it probably won't win?"
In many cases, looking back, that was often part of why I made the bet .5 cuz it wasn't a good bet lol.. or rather that is was "just" good.. and not great.. maybe cut out the good ones and start going with the great or "heavy lean" playsssComment
