Rainman's NHL Thread 2012/2013 - $20 Unit System

squardo · 10-21-13, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by rainman416

Midday prolly.. hard to say if and when they'll release the starting goalie info. usually plays into that, and work n' stuff obv.

Ok well ill keep checking back! Appreciate your work and BOL! Lets make money

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 01:08 AM

Summary by Week

Week #	W/L Record	Net Unit W/L	Net Currency W/L
Week 1	19-20	+8.40	+$168.00
Week 2	16-20	+5.91	+$118.17
Week 3	23-21	+8.56	+$171.15
Total	58-61	+22.86	+$457.32

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 11:20 AM

TODAY'S PLAYS
SJ vs. DET(ML) @+105 x1u LOSE
These teams are pretty even in my opinion. San Jose has the hotter start to the season for sure, but Detroit is a live dog here at home after a brutal 3rd period collapse to an old division rival on Saturday night. This should be a close game, so I'm going to go with the +money team.

SJ vs. DET UNDER5.5 @-125 x1u WIN
With all the offensive weapons on the ice, you would think the obvious play here is the OVER5.5, however, I find that when hotshot teams like this come together, both tend to focus on "shutting down the other teams offence" and in the process, the game ends up totalling around 4-5 goals. I had originally set this play to 2 units, however, I then (accidentally) noticed that one of the free-picks on SBR's NHL homepage is the under in this game, and those articles are pure fade material. That in addition to the fact that SJ is averaging 4.88 goals per game brought me back down to earth and will make this a 1 unit play.

SJ vs. DET (FINAL SCORE 3-1 SJ) @+1600 x.2u LOSE
SJ vs. DET (FINAL SCORE 3-1 DET) @+1600 x.2u LOSE
My gut is telling me this game will end with a final score of 3-1.. Hopefully for DET, but I'm going to balance the game prop bet on both sides so that if the game goes 3-1 final on either side, these puppies will payout a whopping $68.00 or 3.4 UNITS.

COL vs. PIT (1st Period OVER1.5) @-125 x2.5u LOSE
I hovered around this game for a while this morning, trying to figure out how to play it. My instincts are on the COL side, and I may indeed pull the trigger later today with .5 or 1 Unit ML play for them, but Giguere is in net, and the Penguins are really hard to bet against. However, I do like the hot-start (to the game) angle here as there is a ton of offensive talent on both ends of the ice, and I still don't buy that Fleury is back to his peak performance days. The big storyline in this game will be the 1st overall picks and Cole Harbour natives Nathan Mackinnon and Sidney Crosby going head to head for the first time. The first period over 1.5 is where I'm liking the money in this game, as I believe these teams mayyyyyy settle in after that and end up not covering the game long OVER of 5.5.

COL(ML) vs. PIT @+140 x.5u WIN
It didn't take long after the above write-up for me to pull the trigger on this one, it's not often that you see a 7-1 team getting this kind of juice. Penguins are amazing, and could easily win this game, but I'm feeling cheeky today and I love betting +money on solid teams so here is the dog play of the year so far.

COL(In Reg.) vs. PIT@+220 x1u WIN
If they're going to win, why not win in regulation? +220 is crazy, COL hasn't lost on the road, while PIT is undefeated at home, it would be somewhat unexpected to see PIT go to OT/SO two games in a row, so IF they lose today, I see it being in regulation. Tonight we will find out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an unmovable object.

PARLAY
DET(ML) + SJ/DET UNDER5.5 @+269 x.5u LOSE
This is just a bonus add-on to existing action, ideal finish tonight = 3-1 final for DET.

Bet Details	Date/Time	Stake	Return
COL Avalanche @ +220 $20.00 Single	10/21/2013 12:51:09	20.00	64.00
COL Avalanche @ +140 $10.00 Single	10/21/2013 12:51:09	10.00	24.00
DET Red Wings @ +105 Under 5.5 @ -125 Round Robin/2 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $10.00	10/21/2013 12:16:02	10.00	0.00
DET Red Wings @ +105 $20.00 Single	10/21/2013 12:15:02	20.00	0.00
Over 1.5 @ -125 $62.50 Single	10/21/2013 12:15:02	62.50	0.00
DET Red Wings to win 3-1 @ +1600 $4.00 Single	10/21/2013 12:15:02	4.00	0.00
SJ Sharks to win 3-1 @ +1600 $4.00 Single	10/21/2013 12:15:02	4.00	0.00
Under 5.5 @ -125 $25.00 Single	10/21/2013 12:15:02	25.00	45.00
Total for this period		130.50	133.00

*I'm going to count the two game prop (final score) bets as 1 on the win/loss record for the season, treating it as a round robin parlay for $8.00 that would have paid out +800 if 1 of 2 hit. (Both could not hit obv.)

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by squardo

Ok well ill keep checking back! Appreciate your work and BOL! Lets make money

Sounds good to me

Remember you can go up to "Thread Tools" and "Subscribe" to the thread and it will send you e-mail updates each time there is a new post.. Not that I'm trying to market this thread really, its more of a betting journal/tracker for myself, but if you do want to follow along, that is the best way!

Ser Pucks · 10-21-13, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by rainman416

TODAY'S PLAYS
SJ vs. DET(ML) @+105 x1u
These teams are pretty even in my opinion. San Jose has the hotter start to the season for sure, but Detroit is a live dog here at home after a brutal 3rd period collapse to an old division rival on Saturday night. This should be a close game, so I'm going to go with the +money team.

SJ vs. DET UNDER5.5 @-125 x1u
With all the offensive weapons on the ice, you would think the obvious play here is the OVER5.5, however, I find that when hotshot teams like this come together, both tend to focus on "shutting down the other teams offence" and in the process, the game ends up totalling around 4-5 goals. I had originally set this play to 2 units, however, I then (accidentally) noticed that one of the free-picks on SBR's NHL homepage is the under in this game, and those articles are pure fade material. That in addition to the fact that SJ is averaging 4.88 goals per game brought me back down to earth and will make this a 1 unit play.

COL vs. PIT (1st Period OVER1.5) @-125 x1.5u
I hovered around this game for a while this morning, trying to figure out how to play it. My instincts are on the COL side, and I may indeed pull the trigger later today with .5 or 1 Unit ML play for them, but Giguere is in net, and the Penguins are really hard to bet against. However, I do like the hot-start (to the game) angle here as there is a ton of offensive talent on both ends of the ice, and I still don't buy that Fleury is back to his peak performance days. The big storyline in this game will be the 1st overall picks and Cole Harbour natives Nathan Mackinnon and Sidney Crosby going head to head for the first time. The first period over 1.5 is where I'm liking the money in this game, as I believe these teams mayyyyyy settle in after that and end up not covering the game long OVER of 5.5.

Picks look good bud. I agree with you on the Detroit pick, it's gonna be a close game and with Detroit being the home dog, you gotta go with them. I'm thinking the same with Colorado, I can't believe they're a +155 dog right now...very tempting to take them too with the odds like that, but ya very hard to bet against the Pens at home. I'm also leaning under for both the Detroit & Pittsburgh games. I agree that when offensive powerhouses get together, the other teams try to shut them down like good teams do. Public sees offense offense offense and thinks over, but that's not usually the case. GL tonight!

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 11:59 AM

Big Monday night in the NHL with only 3 games, but two of those games should be wildly entertaining and are very hard to call. My plays for today are simply to add excitement to the game and the thread is doing well so why not get some +money plays in on close games. If the first period of the COL/PIT game goes OVER 1.5, the play on COL will be sort of a free roll..

BOL tonight!

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by Ser Pucks

Picks look good bud. I agree with you on the Detroit pick, it's gonna be a close game and with Detroit being the home dog, you gotta go with them. I'm thinking the same with Colorado, I can't believe they're a +155 dog right now...very tempting to take them too with the odds like that, but ya very hard to bet against the Pens at home. I'm also leaning under for both the Detroit & Pittsburgh games. I agree that when offensive powerhouses get together, the other teams try to shut them down like good teams do. Public sees offense offense offense and thinks over, but that's not usually the case. GL tonight!

Glad to hear it, really tough to call these games, but with bets on both dogs, it will be a great night to watch the games and just love the action, not going to let it tilt me if both these sides (COL/DET) lose.
Agree with your public comment their, and that is exactly what I was thinking, can be so tempting to take overs in these kinds of games, but I just don't see it, and it often goes UNDER.

Cheers.

kevin101 · 10-21-13, 01:27 PM

I like the under 5.5 and detriot but now a little weary on the under because as you mentioned the SBR who post picks are pure fade, they can't even pick their own ass. However, I'm on the Pens tonight, pens at home, should be pretty rested, only game was Canucks AT home EARLY afternoon while Edmonton played later in the day and were in Buffalo so travelling etcs.

GL

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by kevin101

I like the under 5.5 and detriot but now a little weary on the under because as you mentioned the SBR who post picks are pure fade, they can't even pick their own ass. However, I'm on the Pens tonight, pens at home, should be pretty rested, only game was Canucks AT home EARLY afternoon while Edmonton played later in the day and were in Buffalo so travelling etcs.

GL

I think you mean Colorado there..

but yea those articles are cold places to find picks... Having said that, I don't believe they are capable of losing every pick, that in and of itself would be a talent that those cappers wish they could have been born with... i.e. being a perfect fade would be almost as valuable as being a perfect winner lol.

I'm not prepared to cancel my UNDER pick entirely just because some goomba cooler fade boy jumped on too..

Not a terrible pick on PIT, but when they're up against a 7-1 team who has been running as hot or arguably even hotter than PIT (since no one expected this from COL, whereas PIT is pretty much on pace with their expectations) I would have liked to see PIT-130 or so..

At -160 I don't see the value...

Having said that.. PIT is the better team and at home so can't argue.

More than a winning card tonight, I want a crazy and exciting couple of games which I'm sure is what we're in store for.

BOL

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 06:29 PM

Added 1 more unit to the COL/PIT 1st period over 1.5

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 07:02 PM

Oops ha shit. Not lookin too good for that 1st per. Over...gonna need a quick 2

Edit:

Fcuk. missed that one by a couple..

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 08:07 PM

ADDING LIVE BET: During 2nd Period COL 1 - 0 PIT
COL(In Reg.) vs. PIT @+105 x2u WIN
Giguere is looking very sharp and Crosby has gone missing.. Couldn't resist.

COL Avalanche @ +105
$40.00 Single

10/21/2013 20:48:09

40.00

82.00

squardo · 10-21-13, 08:51 PM

Looking good in the Sharks/Wings game for the under 5.5! Now Detroit just needs to score and all is good!

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 09:24 PM

Crazy save for Niemi there in the SO.. rough finish, but COL closed the deal nicely... Soo pissed though I benched Giguere in my Fantasy league... was not banking on that shutout at all.

Ah well

squardo · 10-21-13, 09:33 PM

Yea det was a close one. Good call on COL. Going to make any plays in the last game tonight?!

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 09:42 PM

Thinking about it now.. may just watch the first period and make a live play late in that or on the intermission. If I do I'll post it right after

squardo · 10-21-13, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by rainman416

Thinking about it now.. may just watch the first period and make a live play late in that or on the intermission. If I do I'll post it right after

Sounds good! I'll check back shortly... BOL!

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 10:01 PM

LIVE BET
CGY vs. LAK UNDER4.5 @-125 x.5u LOSE

CGY vs. LAK (In Reg.) @-139 x1u LOSE

ADDING
CGY vs. LAK UNDER4.5 @+105 x.5u LOSE

Bet Details	Date/Time	Stake	Return
Under 4.5 @ +105 $10.00 Single	10/21/2013 23:29:44	10.00	0.00
LA Kings @ -139 $27.80 Single	10/21/2013 23:08:50	27.80	0.00
Under 4.5 @ -125 $12.00 Single	10/21/2013 23:01:21	12.00	0.00

*I'm going to count the two live bets on the UNDER as 1 on the win/loss record for the season...

rainman416 · 10-21-13, 10:30 PM

ADDING another half unit on the UNDER 4.5 now sitting at +105 (During first Intermission)

404_not_found · 10-22-13, 04:48 AM

Hi Rainman,

You have very good results, congratulations. i'll try to follow you for NHL. With less money for me and no live bets. But I think it will be profitable to me. Just a quick question: When you say "ML" it's with OT included? And Will you have a same thread for NBA?

Ps: Sorry for my English , I do my best :/

rainman416 · 10-22-13, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by 404_not_found

Hi Rainman,

You have very good results, congratulations. i'll try to follow you for NHL. With less money for me and no live bets. But I think it will be profitable to me. Just a quick question: When you say "ML" it's with OT included? And Will you have a same thread for NBA?

Ps: Sorry for my English , I do my best :/

Thanks.. No NBA for me.. and this thread may only last a couple more weeks as I have a new job starting on Nov. 4th that will take most of my time.. As for ML plays, yes, they include OT.. When it's a Money Line (ML) bet, the team just has to win.. in any way shape or form.

rainman416 · 10-22-13, 09:44 AM

Tonight's Total =4-6 -1.52($30.30)

FULL-SEASON TRACKING SHEET

NHL

Money Line 20-14 +14.36 UNITS ($287.25)

Puck Line 3-4 +1.95 UNITS ($39.00)

Totals 14-13 +.53 UNITS ($10.50)

3-Way Side 6-7 +2.21 UNITS ($44.18)

Parlay 9-17 +1.56 UNITS ($31.22)

Live 10-9 +5.15 UNITS ($95.28)

Game Props 0-3 -4.76 UNITS ($80.50)

Pure Total: (Without Parlays) 53-50 +19.79 UNITS ($395.80)

GRAND TOTAL: 62-67 +21.35 UNITS ($427.02)

*All plays are between .25 and 5 units in size

404_not_found · 10-22-13, 01:45 PM

Oh bad luck for me, you will stop (if I well understand). Let's make money till this date!

squardo · 10-22-13, 02:15 PM

Sucks to hear this thread might stop. Congrats on the job though! (always good to hear).

I wanted to make a little play today and see what you think.

Parlay
Blackhawks -176 ML
Montreal - 201 ML

rainman416 · 10-22-13, 04:14 PM

I like it but I would worry about betting against EDM right now for those kind of odds.. They are a much better team than they are getting credit for.. Habs are hot though so could be alright.. just too heavy a price imo at -201

rainman416 · 10-22-13, 04:50 PM

TONIGHT'S PLAY'S
CHI(In Reg.) vs. FLA @-120 x3u LOSE

VAN(ML) vs. NYI @-120 x1u WIN

EDM(ML) vs. MTL @+180 x.5u WIN

ANA vs. TOR OVER5.5 @-115 x1u WIN

WAS vs. WPG OVER5.5 @+100 x1u WIN

NJ vs. CBJ UNDER 5.0 @-125 x1u PUSH

NSH vs. MIN UNDER 5.0 @-120 x1u WIN

PARLAY OF THE DAY
CHI(ML) + NJ(ML) @+242 x1u LOSE

Bet Details	Date/Time	Stake	Return
EDM Oilers @ +180 $10.00 Single	10/22/2013 18:39:44	10.00	28.00
CHI Blackhawks @ -120 $72.00 Single	10/22/2013 17:55:24	72.00	0.00
CHI Blackhawks @ -192 NJ Devils @ +125 Round Robin/2 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $20.00	10/22/2013 17:45:54	20.00	0.00
VAN Canucks @ -120 $24.00 Single	10/22/2013 17:43:58	24.00	44.00
Under 5.0 @ -125 $25.00 Single	10/22/2013 17:40:41	25.00	45.00
Over 5.5 @ -115 $23.00 Single	10/22/2013 17:40:41	23.00	43.00
Under 5.0 @ -120 $24.00 Single	10/22/2013 17:40:41	24.00	24.00
Over 5.5 @ +100 $20.00 Single	10/22/2013 17:40:41	20.00	40.00
Total for this period		218.00	224.00

ADDED PARLAY: Was out driving to the game watching location and put this together. Didn't have time to post it, but here it is for the record.
TOR(ML) + EDM(ML) + CHI(ML) + VAN(ML) @+1363 x.46u WIN

EDM Oilers @ +180
TOR Maple Leafs @ -110
CHI Blackhawks @ -192
VAN Canucks @ -125
4 Play Parlays, 1 bet * $9.15

10/22/2013 18:41:40

9.15

146.38

thevault13 · 10-22-13, 09:12 PM

What a sad effort by the Blackhawks!

CHI (reg) + CANUCKS ML + MIN/NASHVILLE under.

Couldn't hold the panthers out!

Ser Pucks · 10-22-13, 09:14 PM

I hope Chicago wins this SO for your parlay brother.......

BAAAAAAM! Thank you Patrick Sharp. Nice hit man... hell of a night for you.

rainman416 · 10-22-13, 09:23 PM

What a brutal 3rd period lead blow for CHI I agree... that was a "rollin w/ no sweat" game from the start... TGTBT (To good to be true) that I would hit that 3unit play lol

So far the bigger plays are.. I believe..
5u (none played yet)
4u 2-0
3u 0-2

rainman416 · 10-22-13, 09:32 PM

Tonight's Total = 6-2-1 +7.16($143.23)

FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET TYPE
Type of Bet Win/Loss Record Net Profit/Loss

Money Line 22-14 +16.26 UNITS ($325.25)

Puck Line 3-4 +1.95 UNITS ($39.00)

Totals 17-13-1 +3.53 UNITS ($70.50)

3-Way Side 6-8 -1.39 UNITS ($27.82)

Parlay 10-18 +7.42 UNITS ($148.45)

Live 10-9 +5.15 UNITS ($95.28)

Game Props 0-3 -4.76 UNITS ($80.50)

Pure Total: 58-51-1 +21.09 UNITS ($421.80)

GRAND TOTAL: 68-69-1 +28.51 UNITS ($570.25)

*All plays are between .2 and 5 units in size
**Pure total is total calculated without inclusion of parlays

FULL-SEASON TRACKING BY BET AMOUNT

Bet Size	Win/Loss Record
x5 Units	0-0-0
x4 Units	2-0-0
x3 Units	1-1-0
x2.5 Units	1-1-0
x2 Units	11-5-0
x1.5 Units	3-3-0
x1 Units	33-29-1
x.5 Units	9-21-0
Other Amount (.2u-3u)	8-9-0

rainman416 · 10-22-13, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by Ser Pucks

I hope Chicago wins this SO for your parlay brother.......

BAAAAAAM! Thank you Patrick Sharp. Nice hit man... hell of a night for you.

Thanks man, biG WiN tonight, Highest return on the season

rainman416 · 10-23-13, 01:17 AM

Just crunched the numbers on the bet size tracking sheet.. interesting to see that all are even or above .500 except for the .5 units and OTHER units, amount.. Other is mostly .75, 1.25, .20 etc.

Maybe need to start making some of the "would be" .5 plays into no plays and see how that works out..

Tarboroken · 10-23-13, 05:43 AM

Thanks for your hard work, very much appreciated.

speedracer122 · 10-23-13, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by rainman416

Just crunched the numbers on the bet size tracking sheet.. interesting to see that all are even or above .500 except for the .5 units and OTHER units, amount.. Other is mostly .75, 1.25, .20 etc.

Maybe need to start making some of the "would be" .5 plays into no plays and see how that works out..

i noticed the exact same pattern going on with my picks, and what I've done recently is just scale back my would-be 1 unit plays to now 0.5 units, and so on and so forth

rainman416 · 10-23-13, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by Tarboroken

Thanks for your hard work, very much appreciated.

Originally posted by speedracer122

i noticed the exact same pattern going on with my picks, and what I've done recently is just scale back my would-be 1 unit plays to now 0.5 units, and so on and so forth

Good Call, I may consider doing the same depending on how the next couple of weeks turn out.

Also need to just start asking myself, "did I reduce that play to .5 unit because I know it probably won't win?"

In many cases, looking back, that was often part of why I made the bet .5 cuz it wasn't a good bet lol.. or rather that is was "just" good.. and not great.. maybe cut out the good ones and start going with the great or "heavy lean" playsss