Hey, sorry I can't respond more in depth right now, I do want to make some points, but I need to keep this short because I'm kind of exhausted right now (probably crashing from all the caffeine earlier haha
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Not trying to be nitpicky here but I'm assuming you mean "outcomes" right?
No, I never suggested that movements in lines/totals signify sharpness by the books or bettors.
Additionally, I hate it when people discuss things on the radio/tv/SBR about whether a certain line should be different, or that the books made one team to big of a favorite or underdog or whatever... It is not their job to predict the total amount of points that will be scored or even which team will win by how much... the most accurate line possible is the line that gets as close to 50% of the action on each side as possible, allowing them to safely collect the vigorish without worrying about the outcome of a game. If you feel that a line or total is not representative of what the final outcome will be, then go pull the trigger on it.
If line makers were consistently making +EV lines and were so far off that sharp bettors felt confident in betting insane amounts of money at he last second before the books could change the spread/odds enough to draw equal money on both sides, then they would be fired and replaced by more competent line makers until either they don't get cleaned out by the sharp bettors like before, or the entire profession of "Las Vegas Sporting Event Line Makers" wouldn't exist.
Hence, the mere presence of profitable books proves that at the very least, lines makers are pretty damn good at what they do.
hit me back playas