Beating closing numbers

[element1286]

I was wondering how much better your chances are if you beat a closing NFL line by .5, 1, 1.5, or 2 or more points. Like if I bet team A (+4) on Tuesday, and the line closed with Team A (+2.5), how much would that increase my chances of beating that spread?

And what book should I be trying to beat the closing number at? Cris? Pinnacle?

[Justin7]

It's more imporant how much you're beating the "converted win percentage" than how many half-points.

For example, if the market is +3 and you get +3.5, you'll win that bet about 55% of the time. But if the market closes +4 and you get +5.5, you still won't do better than 55%.

You need to convert the price you get to a win percentage, assuming the market is at 50%. I use a hybrid of the line at Pinnacle, Olympic and Cris.

[SlickFazzer]

It's more imporant how much you're beating the "converted win percentage" than how many half-points.

For example, if the market is +3 and you get +3.5, you'll win that bet about 55% of the time. But if the market closes +4 and you get +5.5, you still won't do better than 55%.

You need to convert the price you get to a win percentage, assuming the market is at 50%. I use a hybrid of the line at Pinnacle, Olympic and Cris.

Do you get these percentages from looking at historical data?

[Justin7]

Do you get these percentages from looking at historical data?

Yes.

[smitch124]

Does the half point calcualtor take these historical data into account?

[element1286]

It's more imporant how much you're beating the "converted win percentage" than how many half-points.

For example, if the market is +3 and you get +3.5, you'll win that bet about 55% of the time. But if the market closes +4 and you get +5.5, you still won't do better than 55%.

You need to convert the price you get to a win percentage, assuming the market is at 50%. I use a hybrid of the line at Pinnacle, Olympic and Cris.

So you are saying that I should try to beat certain spreads based on historical winning percentages?

[Justin7]

No... you should look at all your plays. You want to beat all closing spreads. The historical win percentages just help you assess your edge.

[element1286]

No... you should look at all your plays. You want to beat all closing spreads. The historical win percentages just help you assess your edge.

Ok, got it. Thanks.

[RickySteve]

Not all points are of equal value, so it's not as simple as adding up your net margin against the close. Say you bet the Eagles +2.5 and Rams +2.5 at open. They close -2.5 and +3.5, respectively. You've beaten the market by 4 points but you're headed for food stamps.

[element1286]

Not all points are of equal value, so it's not as simple as adding up your net margin against the close. Say you bet the Eagles +2.5 and Rams +2.5 at open. They close -2.5 and +3.5, respectively. You've beaten the market by 4 points but you're headed for food stamps.

So you are saying that getting an early line that is +2.5 and it moves to -2.5, then I would be getting the worse end of the deal?

[turnip]

So you are saying that getting an early line that is +2.5 and it moves to -2.5, then I would be getting the worse end of the deal?

No, he's saying that 5 point move in your favor is not as important as the 1 point move from +2.5 to +3.5

[element1286]

No, he's saying that 5 point move in your favor is not as important as the 1 point move from +2.5 to +3.5

Ok, makes sense.

[Wheell]

In the NFL RickySteve is correct, but in college I'd love to have 2 teams at +2.5 if one is -2.5 and the other is 3.5. Points have to be valued differently in different contexts, but the main iss ue remains the same. Try to beat closing nu,bers and try to do so at as low vig as possible.