-
Comment -
You're not even trying to answer the question. Let's say you bet NBA at Sportbet. You identify a play. You go to bet some amount. When you're about to confirm, you see you're getting a free .5, and remember their free half-point Thursday promo (as it sounds, a free .5 on game sides and totals). Would you bet the same amount you originally intended to bet, after remembering that the promo is in effect?
Nobody gives a crap what books you actually have funded, or your perception of one book's relative accuracy over another. You can't answer this question with some irrelevant comparison to your past experience, saying "I don't play there so this question doesn't apply to me", or saying "I would never forget the promo in the first place". Facing that exact scenario, what would you do? Bet the same or bet more?Comment -
I have tried to answer this question. Lord knows I've tried to answer this question. I'm very sorry you don't like the answer I keep giving, and I'm not saying you have to agree with it.
I would bet THE SAME AMOUNT. The fact that I'm getting a half point advantage I didn't expect to get is GREAT!!! It absolutely means I have a better chance to win THIS PARTICULAR BET. But there is no way of me knowing if this is giving me an advantage on this bet vis a vis any of my other bets. And that, as far as I'm concerned, is the crux of the issue. Why would I want to bet more on a game that, based on all of my available information, I have only an equal, or possibly worse chance of winning than any other game? Whether or not the half point advantage is the result of a sportsbook's promotion, a large wager on the opposite side by another player at one of my books, or the fact that the particular book may have an opinion on the game is IRRELEVANT to me.Comment -
Ok, the answer to this scenario removes all doubt. You have zero mathematical basis for your position. Your bet is "equal to your other bets" before the promo. Then you get a free .5 that is completely untainted by market/book opinion, and you still claim your bet is "equal to your other bets" even though it unquestionably has a higher return than your original bet would have had, and decline to bet more because it's "still equal". That's simply nonsense.Comment -
Let's say the Celtics are -4 against the Lakers, and you feel this translates to a line advantageous enough to make one of your plays, which we now know is good enough for a 56% hit rate in the long run, it's just we don't know which bets are more advantageous than others so you bet equally blah blah blah....
Now let's extrapolate to the ridiculous. Let's say someone will give you 20 free points on this game, so you now have Celtics +16.
By your logic, you will bet the same amount as your other games, but the additional bonus of these extra 20 points, for you, is that it gives you more of a comfort zone in a greater chance of cashing.
Doesn't it seem instinctive to you (never mind mathematically sound), that if you're getting Celtics +16 instead of Celtics -4 that this would be a great opportunity to make lots of money? Just talking about your instincts here - doesn't it make sense?
And if you pulled back from the ridiculous offer of 20 free points and made it 10 free points - doesn't the logic continue that you should still bet more than your average bet, just maybe not as much as if you're getting 20 points?
And can't you in your mind continue to extrapolate this back to a more realistic extra half point or full point? That it would be more advantageous to bet more than the original line, but less than if you were getting 20 free points?
Or are you so fixated on increasing your comfort zone with the addition of more points that you are oblivious to the possibilty of making more money by betting more when the chances of you cashing are greater?Comment -
Comment -
If I thought I could make more money by increasing my wager, I would. But I don't.
As I've tried and tried to explain, the point spread is only one variable in deciding whether or not any particular bet will be successful. And, your over-the-top examples notwithstanding, a very small variable at that. (One half point never makes the difference between winning and losing, and makes the difference between winning/losing and pushing perhaps 6 percent of the time or less.)
Other variables include the health or mental well being of any of the key players; possible flaws in my handicapping analysis; the tendencies of referees or the plate umpire to call a game a certain way; and that omnipresent variable in all games of skill and chance, luck. On any particular game, it is probable that these other variables will have a greater impact on whether or not my bet will be successful than a slight advantage in the point spread, so it seems foolhardy to me to risk more.Comment -
It doesn't matter that every factor besides a free point will determine the outcome of your bet 96% of the time. Your conclusion is mathematically absurd.
The game is going to play out however it plays out, independent of your bet with a free .5 (betting -5 instead of -5.5). Over every possibility of how the game plays out, you'll fail to cover -5 a lot of the time, and you'll win by 6 or more a lot of the time, and the free .5 won't make any difference in those ~96% of cases. In the ~4% that the game does land on exactly 5, you turned a loss into a push. That fact, and that fact alone, mathematically justifies a significantly bigger bet. You evidently think that turning a loss into a push 4% of the time is basically irrelevant for proper bet sizing, but it's extremely important.
Spend 5 minutes playing with the Kelly Calculator and you'll understand that.Comment -
So, correct me if I'm wrong, but what you seem to be saying is that EVERY TIME, ON EVERY GAME I BET where I can find an advantage of .5 point I should increase my bet size???
If I were to do this, I'd be increasing my bet size on roughly 50% of my plays, or more. It is illogical to think that the mere fact that there happens to be an "off" number is indicative of whether or not I am on the correct side.Comment -
I think your argument is starting to fall apart.....
"Correct side" is an after the fact phenomenon. There is no correct side, but of course, after any game about 100 gaming forum posters will come in and say I told you so believing that they knew the outcome well in advance of everyone else.
But those guys are idiots more or less and shouldn't be taken seriously. However, there is a "correct price" and you should make every effort to get the best possible number. This is a sound strategy that will increase your win percentage long term. When DonJuan says it is the most important thing, he is pretty much telling you the truth. You just can't take bad numbers no matter what. It will kill you in the long run. Therefore, when you can find an off number or a stray half point or 1 point off the current market price, you need to take advantage of numbers like that.
Nobody except God the Almighty who is perfect and free from sin knows the outcome of the games. Therefore, it is imperative you put yourself in the best possible position to win a bet by getting the best number. Failing to follow this basic, yet extremely difficult concept for most gamblers to grasp, rule will ruin you.
Good luck....Comment -
Not sure which of my arguments is falling apart, since I concur with just about everything you said. (Especially the part about God Almighty being perfect.)
I never said you should take bad numbers. I never would bet a side where I thought I was getting inadequate value based on the line or point spread.
I never said you shouldn't take the best number available. I ALWAYS take the best number available.
But as far as "taking advantage of numbers", if you mean increasing bet size merely because one shop happens to have a number that happens to be off, then I don't see the logic, since this is a very small determinant in whether or not a particular bet will be successful, and there are other much more important determinants.Comment -
Pretty much. If the half-point is off the market consensus (not simply .5 more vs. your model, which may not mean nearly as much), you should bet more.
If your model says -8, and pinny/cris/greek/5d/sex/mb all say -5.5, you'd bet a certain amount. If they all say -5, you'd bet a certain amount, and it's not straight up ridiculous to assume that the .5 difference in that case is from your model's error, as opposed to a bigger edge, and to keep the bets similar. You should have a better bet, but it's not necessarily a full .5 better.
OTOH, if pinny/cris/greek/5d/mb all say -5.5, and WSEX says -5, or SIA says -5, or sportbet says -5.5 and gives you -5 for free, then you have a full .5 better and you should bet more accordingly. The presence of that line says nothing about whether or not -5.5 is +EV/+EG to begin with- you've already decided that -5.5 is good enough to warrant a bet.
Getting -5 means your bet is now better for your expected growth than it would have been before. When your bet was good, and is now better, you gain a crapton by betting more. When your bet was bad, and is still bad but not quite as bad, your expected growth isn't any worse off by betting a bit more.Comment -
Lets say a great handicapper comes down from the mountain and places a bet against Facts pick. Now the sportsbooks revere this guy so they drop the odds. The odds move in Facts favor. Now should he bet more on his pick at the new #. No is a reasonable response. Although a bet at the new number might still be a play it might not be any better than his other bets. The very fact that this other guy disagrees with Facts pick might change the probabilities from a particular view point. Of course at the original number it wouldn't be a play now. Or a at least not as good.
If he makes his bet beforehand then on average his play would still be valid because he doesn't know which way the great handicapper is going to go.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
OK, since this is a known variable, and all of the other variables are admittedly unknown, I will concede that in the long run I will have a slightly higher edge on these games. (Assuming that the off-line doesn't represent a sharper line, a somewhat questionable proposition.)
So, that would translate into a 4% higher bet on those games where I'm getting the extra half point, correct?.Comment -
No, way more. If your bet is 54% at -5.5, then it would be 56.2% at -5 (still 54% wins, but now 42% losses and 4% pushes that don't factor in, 54/96=56.2%). Your kelly stake increases from 3.4% of roll (at -5.5 -110) to 8.1% (at -5 -110). If it's a 56% play, your stake increases from 7.6% to 12.5%. If your play sucked to begin with at 45%, and you were going to bet 2% of your roll, you can bet 2.6% of your roll at -5 and still not have lower expected growth. The .5 difference really is huge.Comment -
But that's the whole point. Inherent in this logic, it seems to me, is that I assign different outcome percentages to different wagers. How else would I know to only wager 2.6% of my bankroll (and I don't have a separate gambling "bankroll", but that's a discussion for a different day) rather than 8.1% or 12.5%?
As I said when this whole thing started, if I were able to rank my plays in terms of strength, of course I would bet more on the stronger plays.Comment -
I still can't reconcile with the fact that someone is able to successful tell that a game has above a 52.4% chance of covering, but then can't tell if it's above 54% or 56% as well.
Are you using a model, or just looking at lines and picking the ones that look good.Comment -
I am using a model. I use one model to handicap each game, based on matchups. I then decide which side has the matchup advantage, or if neither does. I use a different model to determine what the maximum price is that I can lay (favorite) or minimum price I must take (dog) to make the bet worthwhile. I will not bet a team with a decided matchup disadvantage under any circumstances.
I guess what it boils down to is that to me matchups, not betting line, is the overwhelming factor in whether or not I will make a play. Whether or not the line offers value is not an arbitrary decision, but it is far from an exact science. So, as I said earlier, as long as the play falls within my "value" range, I have found that my win percentage doesn't really correlate to how far off the line is from my established upper or lower "boundary" line. Of course, that's not to say I'm not trying to find some kind of correlation between any particular characteristic (e.g., NBA home dogs getting at least 3) and winning percentage. I just haven't yet.Comment -
OK. I'll take back then what I said about the free promotion half point. I agree, it does make sense to bet more in that particular instance.
However, for the reason Reno cited above, the fact that one book has an off line could very well be indicative of a negative unknown variable that would likely offset the advantage gained by taking the half point.Comment -
Sure, I'd want to be pretty sure that the number really is off-market for some reason other than sharp action. Lots of lower-tier books regularly hang stale numbers and/or have to fade a lot of square action- in those cases, I'm happy to default to "book hanging dumb line, truly free .5". If I'm looking to bet a game -5.5, and an A+ book shifts to -5.. I'm certainly not looking to instantly lay more on the game. That's actual information, and giving the market the finger, and doing it on a regular basis is a good way to get poor.Comment -
Because if I see pinny -5, cris -5.5, and greek -5.5, I'm going to evaluate the market differently than I would if I saw pinny/cris/greek -5.5 and SIA -5. If I've already placed a bet at -5.5, and then pinny/cris/greek steam down to -5, I'm not going to automatically add on more (which I would do if those 3 stayed on -5.5 and some square book hung -5).Comment -
you can make money long term , just follow your rule that work and never change your mind!!! bet like robot..Comment -
Curious debate,and a good one that will never end. Similar to ones I've had in poker forums,
"...oh thats so -EV you idiot. Why do you dumb asses post here. Play the lottery instead you Phucking moron" etc etc etc. When all I was doing was trying to explain a different way to approach the given situation. I can assure you that I've made more at poker than most do in a life time, yet these "kids" are quick to discount anything that doesnt fit their model, trash me and effectively boot me off. I can see the same thing happening here. I personally believe the more heads discussing such topics the better.
Regardless, I completely understand what you're saying CHF. It works for you and its sound advice. I would recommend it to every novice or undisciplined better every time. I used it in my earlier days and I was able to successfully increase my bankroll, albiet slowly. However, when I advanced in handicapping I learned and most importantly understood the kelly criterion model and my profits increased dramaticly.
To answer your question moss, you can make a living at gambling. I doComment -
I don't think "A" books necessarily have a sharp number.
Making sharp numbers doesn't make you an "A" book, good pay and good customer service do.
And, having said that, I do very much respect Pinnacle and Olympic's numbers....Comment -
Peep,
Right, but when I think A+, I am thinking of Pinny and Greek and not thinking of Bodog (LOL).Comment -
Comment -
Ummm, up until a week ago Bodog was an A+ book. The rankings that SBR uses to evaluate books makes no mention in their list of criteria about the quality of the lines they offer. In addition, Betjm is an A+ book and they are something of a square book.
I wouldn't worry too much about the grades that SBR issues. Instead, just identify the sharp books and use them to help you make decisions about what plays to make (or not to make).Comment
