There have been quite a few posts in recent days (more than usual I think) regarding posters chasing their losses in a big way (i.e. all in, doubling up etc.) so I thought I might share a bit about my brief 16 month experience in sports betting in case it might help someone.
First off, you'll notice the thread title says "reduced" chasing. As much as I believe in the math of gambling only when I have +EV expectations, regretfully I have still succumbed to chasing. Sometimes I bet too much on positive EV games or have even knowingly bet on –EV situations (between the 2 scenarios about 20-25 bets out of the last almost 1000 or so bets). Of course there were also times where I really thought I was betting +EV but wasn’t (i.e. bad math I call it) and those are not counted. However, I have learned to keep chasing from ruining my bankroll and I will explain how in a moment. I am not promising anything to anyone and can only tell you what has worked for me. Here is my 3 step program:
1) I write down every bet that I make before the bet is placed or as close to the bet time as possible. Even though all of my bets are recorded in spreadsheets etc., putting pen to paper makes it more real to me. Over time I have noticed that when I am at my psychological worst (i.e. I am very tired, it is late, I have gone 0-8 on the night, etc.) and I have a desire to chase, I also don't want to write my bets down. Because I have developed the habit of writing down my bets, it slows me down for a few seconds and has prevented many chase bets.
2) ANY time I place a chase bet, I mark down very clearly that this is a chase bet. Again, it forces me to take some ownership of the bet I am making. Also, as time goes on, the case against chasing becomes harder for me to justify to myself as I see how poorly the chase bets have done compared to my positive EV system bets. More on this later.
3) This is the most important point and is 95% of what keeps me going. Unless you know you are a recreational gambler who is playing only for fun, if you are actually trying to make money you must understand the basics of the Kelly Criterion and bet sizes relative to your expected positive edge. The following link, and its sub links, will be a good start:
Using this tool to come up with the numbers, here is what I tell myself, point by point (well, I often think about the points in general abstract terms anyways), whenever I feel susceptible to getting off track and chasing:
a) assuming -105 odds, if in the entire universe of sports betting, I can find a way to place 10 bets per day and win 51% these, over the course of 5 years (10x365x5=18250 bets) I will break even. My bet size, however, would need to be $0 as I have no edge.
b) assuming -105 odds, if in the entire universe of sports betting, I can find a way to place 10 bets per day and win 52% these, over the course of 5 years (10x365x5=18250 bets) my expected bankroll will increase by 86 times. Furthermore, my bet size would need to be a consistent maximum of 1.6% of my bankroll for any single bet.
c) assuming -105 odds, if in the entire universe of sports betting, I can find a way to place 10 bets per day and win 53% these, over the course of 5 years (10x365x5=18250 bets) my expected bankroll will increase by 11,221,485,104 times. Furthermore, my bet size would need to be a consistent maximum of 3.65% of my bankroll for any single bet. Effectively, starting with a not unusually large $1000 bankroll (and assuming $1 bet minimum at Pinnacle to allow for some significant BR fluctuation), I would be the wealthiest person in the world.
d) assuming -105 odds, if in the entire universe of sports betting, I can find a way to place 10 bets per day and win 54% these, over the course of 5 years (10x365x5=18250 bets) my expected bankroll will increase by 3,069,404,603,709,780,700,000,000 times. Furthermore, my bet size would need to be a consistent maximum of 5.70% of my bankroll for any single bet. Effectively, starting with a $1000 bankroll, I would own the entire world.
e) So, I tell myself, assuming I can find these 10 bets per day, if 5.7% (at a 54% win rate) is enough to own the world in 5 years anyway, there is absolutely no justification in placing a larger % wager than one that would result in owning the entire world. Regardless of how I badly feel, if I truly do have an edge, then it is just a matter of time before my BR increases substantially. If I don't have an edge, then chasing will only make things worse, not better.
SIDE NOTES
Practically speaking, in the short term, even 5 bets -105 bets per day over 2.5 years at a win rate of 53% would have an expected bankroll increase of 326 times. At that point, even betting 1% of BR per bet would be enough for a very comfortable lifestyle. If this isn’t enough to make someone want give up “gambling” and start “investing” in sports, I don’t know what would.
The problem is obviously finding positive EV bets in the first place. However, assuming -105 for a moment and a few years of playing 5 bets a day for 2.5 years, when one considers the implications of going from 49% (typical recreational bettor, lose your shirt quickly) to a 50% win rate (knowledgable recreational bettor, lose your shirt slowly) to 51% win rate (break even) to 52% win rate (comfortable lifestyle) to 53% win rate (ridiculously wealthy), it should be obvious that the work involved in finding positive EV bets is worth the time and that chasing is a complete waste of time.
My personal objective is to continue to research and find enough positive EV bets such that my expected BR growth is compounded at a rate of 1% per day. This may or may not be reasonable but at the moment I am more than on track since February 14th, 2008 which is when I first loaded a substantial amount of money for my BR.
Compound interest is a very powerful idea and +EV sports betting is no different.
I do realize there are limitations and no one would be able to regularly book million dollar bets on "no name" games etc. However, at the point you are betting very large sums at +EV, who would really care? As a further side note, from the examples above it should be readily apparent why books like SIA et al will reduce your limits instantly when you are hitting a shaded line they have like -150/+130 when everyone else has -125/+105. That couple of percent, whether you arb or not, is enough to put them out of business very quickly if it is compounded.
I also hope that it is abundantly clear to the reader why claims of consistent 60%+ win rates (adjusted to -105 or -110 odds etc.) are simply ridiculous. I mean, betting only 1 game a day at -110 and a win rate of 60% would increase a theoretical BR by 4,434 times in 1 year - $1000 turns into $4,434,000!
I hope this helps someone.
First off, you'll notice the thread title says "reduced" chasing. As much as I believe in the math of gambling only when I have +EV expectations, regretfully I have still succumbed to chasing. Sometimes I bet too much on positive EV games or have even knowingly bet on –EV situations (between the 2 scenarios about 20-25 bets out of the last almost 1000 or so bets). Of course there were also times where I really thought I was betting +EV but wasn’t (i.e. bad math I call it) and those are not counted. However, I have learned to keep chasing from ruining my bankroll and I will explain how in a moment. I am not promising anything to anyone and can only tell you what has worked for me. Here is my 3 step program:
1) I write down every bet that I make before the bet is placed or as close to the bet time as possible. Even though all of my bets are recorded in spreadsheets etc., putting pen to paper makes it more real to me. Over time I have noticed that when I am at my psychological worst (i.e. I am very tired, it is late, I have gone 0-8 on the night, etc.) and I have a desire to chase, I also don't want to write my bets down. Because I have developed the habit of writing down my bets, it slows me down for a few seconds and has prevented many chase bets.
2) ANY time I place a chase bet, I mark down very clearly that this is a chase bet. Again, it forces me to take some ownership of the bet I am making. Also, as time goes on, the case against chasing becomes harder for me to justify to myself as I see how poorly the chase bets have done compared to my positive EV system bets. More on this later.
3) This is the most important point and is 95% of what keeps me going. Unless you know you are a recreational gambler who is playing only for fun, if you are actually trying to make money you must understand the basics of the Kelly Criterion and bet sizes relative to your expected positive edge. The following link, and its sub links, will be a good start:
Using this tool to come up with the numbers, here is what I tell myself, point by point (well, I often think about the points in general abstract terms anyways), whenever I feel susceptible to getting off track and chasing:
a) assuming -105 odds, if in the entire universe of sports betting, I can find a way to place 10 bets per day and win 51% these, over the course of 5 years (10x365x5=18250 bets) I will break even. My bet size, however, would need to be $0 as I have no edge.
b) assuming -105 odds, if in the entire universe of sports betting, I can find a way to place 10 bets per day and win 52% these, over the course of 5 years (10x365x5=18250 bets) my expected bankroll will increase by 86 times. Furthermore, my bet size would need to be a consistent maximum of 1.6% of my bankroll for any single bet.
c) assuming -105 odds, if in the entire universe of sports betting, I can find a way to place 10 bets per day and win 53% these, over the course of 5 years (10x365x5=18250 bets) my expected bankroll will increase by 11,221,485,104 times. Furthermore, my bet size would need to be a consistent maximum of 3.65% of my bankroll for any single bet. Effectively, starting with a not unusually large $1000 bankroll (and assuming $1 bet minimum at Pinnacle to allow for some significant BR fluctuation), I would be the wealthiest person in the world.
d) assuming -105 odds, if in the entire universe of sports betting, I can find a way to place 10 bets per day and win 54% these, over the course of 5 years (10x365x5=18250 bets) my expected bankroll will increase by 3,069,404,603,709,780,700,000,000 times. Furthermore, my bet size would need to be a consistent maximum of 5.70% of my bankroll for any single bet. Effectively, starting with a $1000 bankroll, I would own the entire world.
e) So, I tell myself, assuming I can find these 10 bets per day, if 5.7% (at a 54% win rate) is enough to own the world in 5 years anyway, there is absolutely no justification in placing a larger % wager than one that would result in owning the entire world. Regardless of how I badly feel, if I truly do have an edge, then it is just a matter of time before my BR increases substantially. If I don't have an edge, then chasing will only make things worse, not better.
SIDE NOTES
Practically speaking, in the short term, even 5 bets -105 bets per day over 2.5 years at a win rate of 53% would have an expected bankroll increase of 326 times. At that point, even betting 1% of BR per bet would be enough for a very comfortable lifestyle. If this isn’t enough to make someone want give up “gambling” and start “investing” in sports, I don’t know what would.
The problem is obviously finding positive EV bets in the first place. However, assuming -105 for a moment and a few years of playing 5 bets a day for 2.5 years, when one considers the implications of going from 49% (typical recreational bettor, lose your shirt quickly) to a 50% win rate (knowledgable recreational bettor, lose your shirt slowly) to 51% win rate (break even) to 52% win rate (comfortable lifestyle) to 53% win rate (ridiculously wealthy), it should be obvious that the work involved in finding positive EV bets is worth the time and that chasing is a complete waste of time.
My personal objective is to continue to research and find enough positive EV bets such that my expected BR growth is compounded at a rate of 1% per day. This may or may not be reasonable but at the moment I am more than on track since February 14th, 2008 which is when I first loaded a substantial amount of money for my BR.
Compound interest is a very powerful idea and +EV sports betting is no different.
I do realize there are limitations and no one would be able to regularly book million dollar bets on "no name" games etc. However, at the point you are betting very large sums at +EV, who would really care? As a further side note, from the examples above it should be readily apparent why books like SIA et al will reduce your limits instantly when you are hitting a shaded line they have like -150/+130 when everyone else has -125/+105. That couple of percent, whether you arb or not, is enough to put them out of business very quickly if it is compounded.
I also hope that it is abundantly clear to the reader why claims of consistent 60%+ win rates (adjusted to -105 or -110 odds etc.) are simply ridiculous. I mean, betting only 1 game a day at -110 and a win rate of 60% would increase a theoretical BR by 4,434 times in 1 year - $1000 turns into $4,434,000!
I hope this helps someone.
) and prefer to do my own homework - which is exactly what I expect you would do.
