[ChuckyTheGoat]

There are a few of them. I question sites where it's on a very limited number of plays.

The site I had been using was NFL Pickwatch. Looks like they've gone Pay. So, they can go Fly a Kite.

Any good free sites where you put stock in their Public Betting % stat? It has to be Free.

Thanks for any input/replies!

[texhooper]

People shit on action network for having a bunch of non gambling ass hacks working for them but I think they’re about as good as you’re gonna get as far as bet percentages

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thank you, Hoop. That looks pretty good.

Looks similar to NFL Pickwatch actually. Thx for the reply.

People can think what they want. My two cents: on nfl IN PARTCULAR, this information is valuable.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I presented the concept of Contrarian thinking in NFL last year. Like I said, people can think what they want.

A few observations from the Water Cooler:
1) I'll reserve judgment on the CIN/Cle game. So much tied to the Burrow injury. But there is an under-current of people that think the Browns will be live this year.

2) I got down on some ATL -3 bets early. Feel good about my position there. I attend the trading-card shows sometimes, dealers tell me they sold out of Bryce Young. Not so hot in the preseason, could be a rude awakening on Opening Day.

3) If there's one team that's RIPE...it's Jacksonville. Think about how bad they were at the start of last year. They won a very bad division. Momentum at end of last year has their expectations bloated. I mean, a lot of people are calling them to be in the AFC Title game.

4) Take a long look at the Saints in Week One. People like to dump on Derek Carr, the guy puts up numbers consistently. Titans could be a team in transition, as in DOWN.

5) The Raider/Bronco line looks curious, as it should. Could there possibly be a bigger gain at HC from Hackett to Payton? Broncos are priced to win here, and they should do just that.

[Eddy Munny]

What difference does it make? Your too busy for that shit.

Also, you presented the word "contrarian" last year, not the concept.

[gauchojake]

When SBR was catering to offshore, I liked the odds and percentages for NFL. Now it's a crapshoot on who you believe. Right now I use a combination of Wagertalk, BMR, Covers, and Action. I'll use SBR if there is a decent contest and we can get some good samples.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

When SBR was catering to offshore, I liked the odds and percentages for NFL. Now it's a crapshoot on who you believe. Right now I use a combination of Wagertalk, BMR, Covers, and Action. I'll use SBR if there is a decent contest and we can get some good samples.

Good post, Jake. Agree with what you're saying.

It's important information. Just have to be able to believe the Data you're seeing.

[Paddy K]

When SBR was catering to offshore, I liked the odds and percentages for NFL. Now it's a crapshoot on who you believe. Right now I use a combination of Wagertalk, BMR, Covers, and Action. I'll use SBR if there is a decent contest and we can get some good samples.

Covers is solid - unders and underdogs getting 60%+ on there are usually an auto-fade.

[TheMoneyShot]

I do agree with TexHooper that Action Network is one of the best... I believe the last 3-4 years though... they've been rather inconsistent. Best years they had were like 5+ years ago. Who can you trust? No one really. All it takes is one piece of information that's incorrect.... throws the numbers off.

I will say this though.... typically if you take the highest percentage PUBLIC game at 1pm eastern and fade it.... win/lose... take the 4pm game and fade it... 1 will definitely win. I've never seen 2 highly wagered PUBLIC events at 1 pm... 4pm both lose on the fade. Something to consider. Maybe a martingale approach. Likewise... if you win at 1PM... don't play the 4pm game. Take the money and run. That's what I do.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Covers is solid - unders and underdogs getting 60%+ on there are usually an auto-fade.

Thank you, Paddy. I will check that out.

Your comments follow my logic to a Tee. NFL is a sport where everyone has an opinion. Be very careful when your Office Co-worker says they like a Live Dog.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I do agree with TexHooper that Action Network is one of the best... I believe the last 3-4 years though... they've been rather inconsistent. Best years they had were like 5+ years ago. Who can you trust? No one really. All it takes is one piece of information that's incorrect.... throws the numbers off.

I will say this though.... typically if you take the highest percentage PUBLIC game at 1pm eastern and fade it.... win/lose... take the 4pm game and fade it... 1 will definitely win. I've never seen 2 highly wagered PUBLIC events at 1 pm... 4pm both lose on the fade. Something to consider. Maybe a martingale approach. Likewise... if you win at 1PM... don't play the 4pm game. Take the money and run. That's what I do.

Shot, I like it. Good stuff.

Yes, I think the NFL has become so counter-intuitive. People think about these teams with clairvoyance. When they're too high on a team, that team is being overbet.

And when I say Over-bet, I'm only talking 2.5 pts or so. It's a small margin game.

Start with two lists:
1) Who the public sees as red-hot?
2) Who the public won't touch with a ten-foot pole?

Some random thoughts...and these are just MY opinions:
*Think about YOUR team, the Lions. I haven't seen this much Lion optimism since the Alex Karras days.
...They're ripe, and if they win at KC, they'll be EXTREMELY ripe.

*Speaking of KC, defending World champs. They were very fortunate to win the L2 games in the playoffs.
...If they start off 2-0 SU/ATS, they're ripe. KC is more vulnerable than people think. Specifically, I see Mahomes/Kelce as being injury concerns.

*Want a team who might be sneaky good? What about Tampa Bay?
...Last year, the QB practiced whenever he wanted. He literally took Personal Leave to hammer out his divorce.

*I mentioned the Jaguars. They're ripe.
...Shot, I'm telling you. I have security guards telling me that the Jags are going to the AFC Final.

*I mentioned the Panthers. The scent of the rose may already be coming off.
...If Bryce Young becomes an All-Pro, I'll tip my cap. QBs of that size don't become stars, wait for the first big hit.

*Packers: probably under-rated.
...Should they be Dogs in Chicago versus this Bear defense? Rodgers was regressing, the QB change won't be a massive downgrade.

*Patriots: might be underrated.
...If Belichick didn't like this team, he could have just retired. Patriots are an after-thought right now. They were unlucky in close games last year, probably live to cover vs Eagles in Week One.

[willkur23]

Hi! I remember that a few years ago, WilliamHill used to post their public bets on Twitter. Whenever I saw more than 70% of people on any team/spread, I would fade the bet, and I ended up winning most of the time. Unfortunately, they are not posting it anymore. Anyway, I'm wondering how platforms like Action Network know which team has the most bets on them, for example, on Fanduel. Do the bookies share that information with them?

[willkur23]

By the way, sometimes Pinnacle shares the bet percentage, but only for a maximum of 1-3 games.

[TheMoneyShot]

Shot, I like it. Good stuff.

Yes, I think the NFL has become so counter-intuitive. People think about these teams with clairvoyance. When they're too high on a team, that team is being overbet.

And when I say Over-bet, I'm only talking 2.5 pts or so. It's a small margin game.

Start with two lists:
1) Who the public sees as red-hot?
2) Who the public won't touch with a ten-foot pole?

Some random thoughts...and these are just MY opinions:
*Think about YOUR team, the Lions. I haven't seen this much Lion optimism since the Alex Karras days.
...They're ripe, and if they win at KC, they'll be EXTREMELY ripe.

*Speaking of KC, defending World champs. They were very fortunate to win the L2 games in the playoffs.
...If they start off 2-0 SU/ATS, they're ripe. KC is more vulnerable than people think. Specifically, I see Mahomes/Kelce as being injury concerns.

*Want a team who might be sneaky good? What about Tampa Bay?
...Last year, the QB practiced whenever he wanted. He literally took Personal Leave to hammer out his divorce.

*I mentioned the Jaguars. They're ripe.
...Shot, I'm telling you. I have security guards telling me that the Jags are going to the AFC Final.

*I mentioned the Panthers. The scent of the rose may already be coming off.
...If Bryce Young becomes an All-Pro, I'll tip my cap. QBs of that size don't become stars, wait for the first big hit.

*Packers: probably under-rated.
...Should they be Dogs in Chicago versus this Bear defense? Rodgers was regressing, the QB change won't be a massive downgrade.

*Patriots: might be underrated.
...If Belichick didn't like this team, he could have just retired. Patriots are an after-thought right now. They were unlucky in close games last year, probably live to cover vs Eagles in Week One.

Thanks for your input Chucky. I'm really excited for Jacksonville out of any team.... I think they have a young talented team over there... great coach too. I don't quite understand the hype with Detroit over in my neck of the woods. I think they said this is the first time EVER in the history of Ford Field... that ALL Home games are completely sold out before the start of Week 1. It's never happened before. Now mind you... has nothing to do with a booming economy... lol it just means Red Wings, Tigers, Pistons.. SUCK. lol Dan Campbell still needs to prove himself... beating GB at GB means nothing.... The game that stuck out last year... was Lions At New England... and New England smoked them on defense every 4th down play. Campbell needs to stop thinking this is a video game... and start punting the ball more.

As always... best wishes this year Chucky... hope you win big!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Salud, Shot. Yes, when the Lions get hype...beware, they're ripe.

[wtdo03]

I do agree with TexHooper that Action Network is one of the best... I believe the last 3-4 years though... they've been rather inconsistent. Best years they had were like 5+ years ago. Who can you trust? No one really. All it takes is one piece of information that's incorrect.... throws the numbers off.


I will say this though.... typically if you take the highest percentage PUBLIC game at 1pm eastern and fade it.... win/lose... take the 4pm game and fade it... 1 will definitely win. I've never seen 2 highly wagered PUBLIC events at 1 pm... 4pm both lose on the fade. Something to consider. Maybe a martingale approach. Likewise... if you win at 1PM... don't play the 4pm game. Take the money and run. That's what I do.

Whats crazy is how this actually works. Either there is truth to games being rigged or Books intentionally put out shady/bait lines to lure in the squares when they clearly know the other side has a better chance of winning.

[pavyracer]

In the old times like before SBR sold the site to SBR Andy, Players Talk was my favorite site for monitoring public bets. I made a lot of money fading the worst public bets bettors.

[actiondan]

i dont worry about it. dave mason betonline's twitter may be helpful

[gauchojake]

I think that the marquis games and games that don't have other programming competing (Thurs/Sun Night/Mon Night) is where the public betting % is most helpful. Random Sunday 1pm games, not as relevant.

[lakerboy]

Irrelevant mostly. You can figure who the public is on just using logic.

None of it really matters anymore much anyway. Most games you can take a look at the line and see where the action went initially and throughout until the end.

NFL is just spots mostly.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks for your input Chucky. I'm really excited for Jacksonville out of any team.... I think they have a young talented team over there... great coach too. I don't quite understand the hype with Detroit over in my neck of the woods. I think they said this is the first time EVER in the history of Ford Field... that ALL Home games are completely sold out before the start of Week 1. It's never happened before. Now mind you... has nothing to do with a booming economy... lol it just means Red Wings, Tigers, Pistons.. SUCK. lol Dan Campbell still needs to prove himself... beating GB at GB means nothing.... The game that stuck out last year... was Lions At New England... and New England smoked them on defense every 4th down play. Campbell needs to stop thinking this is a video game... and start punting the ball more.

As always... best wishes this year Chucky... hope you win big!

Always nice chatting w/ you, Shot.

Honestly, I'm betting less and less. I do have some action (but not as much as in the past).

Will be interesting just as an observer. I really think there's something to this.

Take your Jacksonville mention, as an example. Sure, they're talented and Lawrence looks good. I also think A LOT of people like them. Does that line get to -6 by kickoff?

[TheMoneyShot]

Whats crazy is how this actually works. Either there is truth to games being rigged or Books intentionally put out shady/bait lines to lure in the squares when they clearly know the other side has a better chance of winning.

The crazy thing is... about 10 years ago Sports Insights was a gem in the NBA. Hitting nearly 63% for the year on Square Plays. Had my best year. Once they allowed more sportsbooks enter in the DATA... all went to sh##. It's never been the same. You might as well flip a coin.

[gauchojake]

Irrelevant mostly. You can figure who the public is on just using logic.

None of it really matters anymore much anyway. Most games you can take a look at the line and see where the action went initially and throughout until the end.

NFL is just spots mostly.

I agree. Usually I do a short thought experiment to just quickly think about public perception before I look at the lines. This usually aligns with the numbers.

[OldBill]

covers yes showing teams favored spread moves up 2 points and 80% consensus i just run to local book and every penny in cash i take dog ml n points

[OldBill]

yes guacho jake thats what final lines maker does they know us truly they know how we bet

[OldBill]

go here fairly accuarte with public bets money

https://www.vegasinsider.com/odds/

[Rabbi]

When SBR was catering to offshore, I liked the odds and percentages for NFL. Now it's a crapshoot on who you believe. Right now I use a combination of Wagertalk, BMR, Covers, and Action. I'll use SBR if there is a decent contest and we can get some good samples.

Could you rank Wagertalk, BMR, Covers, and Action Network for which might be the most
useful for Contrarian betting from best to worst based on your experience using each of them?

I had never heard of Wagertalk or BMR until reading this thread. Also are the betting percentages at Action Network available for Free or for a Fee?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Rabbi. Cool avatar. Shalom.

[Rabbi]

The crazy thing is... about 10 years ago Sports Insights was a gem in the NBA. Hitting nearly 63% for the year on Square Plays. Had my best year. Once they allowed more sportsbooks enter in the DATA... all went to sh##. It's never been the same. You might as well flip a coin.

I was with them in their early years when they first started up until when they sold the business to the people at Action Network and the site went down hill and the pricing went way up. They were really a good site for the Contrarian bettors. They would have back then like 6 or 7 sites you could look at for the bet percentages. SIA, BookMaker, 5Dimes, Sportsbook, Carib, BetUs. They would show each of those books by themselves and all of them combined. Some of these sites Im reading about in here I would like to know if their source is in the vain of like Bovada or BookMaker or a Draft Kings/ Fan Duel.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Rabbi, I thought NFL Pickwatch was good last year. But they've gone Pay. Not gonna pay them.

Thx for your list. GL.

[Rabbi]

Thx, Rabbi. Cool avatar. Shalom.

Thank You Chucky, Shalom.

I went and looked at the PickWatch site for the first time last night after I read this thread. It says if I understood them right that they offer a year for $30 and theres a promo code that brings it down to $27 I know you said that you dropped them on the principal of the matter. The Promo Code was WEEK3 if it's still good.

I wish they had like a 24 hour Free Pass or Tutorial Video to show what the Site offers or looks like to someone like me who never had heard of them until this thread. Did you find the site easy to navigate to find the Contrarian info you needed?

[Rabbi]

Chucky, does PickWatch help with Contrarian betting for NCAA Football, MLB, NHL,
NBA, and NCAA Basketball ? Or is this site a NFL tool mostly?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thank You Chucky, Shalom.

I went and looked at the PickWatch site for the first time last night after I read this thread. It says if I understood them right that they offer a year for $30 and theres a promo code that brings it down to $27 I know you said that you dropped them on the principal of the matter. The Promo Code was WEEK3 if it's still good.

I wish they had like a 24 hour Free Pass or Tutorial Video to show what the Site offers or looks like to someone like me who never had heard of them until this thread. Did you find the site easy to navigate to find the Contrarian info you needed?

Thank you. I'll look into that.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky, does PickWatch help with Contrarian betting for NCAA Football, MLB, NHL,
NBA, and NCAA Basketball ? Or is this site a NFL tool mostly?

I've studied this. IMHO, it's an NFL-only concept.

It has to do with all the different players in the various leagues. I don't think it applies to other leagues.

NFL is the one league where you get a LOT of people with opinions. And not all of them good.

[Rabbi]

I've studied this. IMHO, it's an NFL-only concept.

It has to do with all the different players in the various leagues. I don't think it applies to other leagues.

NFL is the one league where you get a LOT of people with opinions. And not all of them good.

Chucky thanks for starting this thread. You and GaucoJake have put at least three Sites on my radar that I never knew about that I now want to check out. Keep us posted on what Site(s) you end up finding useful. Good Luck and Good Health this NFL Season.