[ChuckyTheGoat]

Can't believe how the bottom has fallen out of the last AFC wildcard.

At mid-season, the AFC wildcards looked pretty strong. Now, these teams are dying on the vine.

Teams that looked very likely to make the playoffs now can't win a game:
*Miami
*Patriots
*Jets
*Titans

In looking at the records/schedules, I can't help but think it comes down to the Jet at Miami game in week 18.

As bad as the Jets look, they have the most direct way to eclipse the Dolphins. If both land on 9-8, the Jets trump the Dolphins based on 2-0 H2H sweep.

Who else is going to finish 9-8? Not counting on the Patriots or Steelers.

[jjgold]

Chucky impossible
To tell

These games are epic crapshoots
Teams giving games away with turnovers

Patriots the best of them
All but just giving teams wins 4th qtr

[Seattle Slew]

Steelers should win out. I think they will beat the Ravens, then the Browns at home. Problem is Pitt can't break a tie with any team, so they need NE, Miami, Tenn and Jets all to lose at least once and Pitt can get in at 9-8.

Not impossible. I think Pitt had a harder path last year, and unlike last year, they could be trouble in the first round. Their defense is only behind SF right now, IMO.

And Pickett or Trubisky is an upgrade over what Roethesberger was last year. He was hurt and could not play at all.

[Seattle Slew]

Chucky impossible
To tell

These games are epic crapshoots
Teams giving games away with turnovers

Patriots the best of them
All but just giving teams wins 4th qtr

Cardinals last night perfect example, running a risky pitch out on 3rd and 1 that fumbles instead of running up the middle twice. Incredibe.

[pologq]

steelers are hot. watch out.

[franz555]

Agree with your thinking Chucky, Jets could easily go into Miami last day and sneak in back door

As a life long Bills fan , next Sundays game at Cinncy is basically a playoff game. Cant wait

[kimwash78]

let me simplify for all you savants.. miami wins next week in ne , jets lose, which both will happen doesnt matter what happens with any other team, as tenn plays jax for div title last game of week

[CJ]

Jets need Mike White back. Wilson is almost as bad as Rosen.

Titans have had a ton of injuries too, and now Tannehill.

Patriots are giving games away for some charitable reason. Maybe atoning for all the cheating?

Dolphins are just getting exposed.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hey, Goldy...this IS a handicapping forum.

Whadda you do? Wait until the paper comes out and THEN become an expert Monday Morning Quarterback.

Per Slew's post (#3), yes, the NFL tie-breaking rules can be tricky. Steelers lost to both the Dolphins and Jets, so may need to win by a full game.

Division games take precedence, then Conference games. If you land on a Tie, you better hope you hold some tie-breakers.

The other asterisk (*) on all this is that in some scenarios it comes down to what OPPONENT rests starters in Week 18. Really not fair but that's the luck of the draw.

[Smokey McPot]

Steelers should win out. I think they will beat the Ravens, then the Browns at home. Problem is Pitt can't break a tie with any team, so they need NE, Miami, Tenn and Jets all to lose at least once and Pitt can get in at 9-8.



Not impossible. I think Pitt had a harder path last year, and unlike last year, they could be trouble in the first round. Their defense is only behind SF right now, IMO.

And Pickett or Trubisky is an upgrade over what Roethesberger was last year. He was hurt and could not play at all.

Roethlisberger was painful to watch last year, guy was so immobile that every pass play had to be a short crossing route so he could get the ball out of his hands immediately. Greatly diminished arm strength factored into that as well. Once the rest of the league caught on they just stacked the box knowing they couldnt throw it downfield.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good stuff, Smokey. Steelers 2021 truly were an outsider who shouldn't have made the playoffs.

If Charger HC had a clue, he would have figured out the Tie end-game strategy. Most of the forum guys already knew that the Tie was beneficial for both sides. Steeler playoff loss at Kan City was painful to watch.

[jjgold]

Trying to handicap NFL impossible Chucky

Nobody beats it other than props , ask any book manager

Lines are priced perfectly

Whoever does not turn ball over wins football games

Chucky stop complicating this

[ThaWoj]

Cardinals last night perfect example, running a risky pitch out on 3rd and 1 that fumbles instead of running up the middle twice. Incredibe.

Saints wont be sending thank you cards anytime soon to kliff and company..not that they probably will beat the eagles...but now they're counting on their arch nemesis atlanta who has nothing to play for in week 18 because Carolina will definitely beat tampa this week.

The bucs and Brady are the luckiest team in the nfl, they are horrible.

[kingdom]

Roethlisberger was painful to watch last year, guy was so immobile that every pass play had to be a short crossing route so he could get the ball out of his hands immediately. Greatly diminished arm strensgth factored into that as well. Once the rest of the league caught on they just stacked the box knowing they couldnt throw it downfield.

sadly, this sounds like tom brady this year...i don't wanna see brady go out like mike tyson lol and fade into 'bolivian'

[KRIT]

Jets win this week.

[ByeShea]

Jets win this week.

Mike White immediately puts Jets into better form. I think even the defense plays worse when Zach Wilson is QB.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Mike White immediately puts Jets into better form. I think even the defense plays worse when Zach Wilson is QB.

The markets have spoken. 2-pt line move after White declared good to go.

My one counter is that Wilson actually played pretty well in some of the mid-season wins. I don't know why he looks so ineffective in the 2h of the year.

[RM Logic]

The Dolphins will lose out. Tua sucks under pressure and the weirdo coach they have, McDaniel is totally lost.

[Orbison]

McDaniel bugs the crap out of me

[ChuckyTheGoat]

McDaniel bugs the crap out of me

You know what? I've thought the same thing. I wonder about HOW he got the job.

My one theory is that McVay had some success as a "young coach" with the Rams. After that, you saw what I'll call copy-cat hires. Several young coaches brought in.

Used to be that you had to be a good bit older than your players to be a Head Coach. There have been a few exceptions but there's usually an age gap.

Also, take a close look at Miami's 5-game win streak in mid-season. Looks so phony now. The win over Detroit is the only one that looks good (now). At the time, Detroit was having major problems on defense. To his credit, Campbell has fixed that (since).

[ThaTopMoron]

Steelers should win out. I think they will beat the Ravens, then the Browns at home. Problem is Pitt can't break a tie with any team, so they need NE, Miami, Tenn and Jets all to lose at least once and Pitt can get in at 9-8.

Not impossible. I think Pitt had a harder path last year, and unlike last year, they could be trouble in the first round. Their defense is only behind SF right now, IMO.

And Pickett or Trubisky is an upgrade over what Roethesberger was last year. He was hurt and could not play at all.

KC or Bills will s h i t on the 7 seed... just like last year

[mtneer1212]

The Dolphins will lose out. Tua sucks under pressure and the weirdo coach they have, McDaniel is totally lost.

No Tua. Adios Fish.