[JBEX]

Absolutely. The purse money, as large as it is, is a fraction of what the horses stallion value would immediately become.

Winning the Derby is huge. But if you can throw into that title, undefeated winner of the Derby, well, the sky is the limit.

And as great as past winners, now in the breeding shed were, he would be tomorrows, (who the Eagles so brilliantly sang about,)
"There's a new kid in town", a song Bob Dylan said was " one of the best songs ever written".

And for the time being, until the NEXT great Derby winner, Kingsbarns would be THAT horse.

So there is quite a bit riding on today's race IMO.

GL JBEX.

always liked that song and no idea bob dylan had that opinion of it..high praise coming from him

it'll be interesting how he's bet today..I'm guessing around 3-1 but if he's high single digits I think that's a bad sign (6-1 ml) ..definitely a lot to prove and looking forward to the race


thanks str

[JBEX]

did a little follow up on kingsbarns race..figure I'd link it up ..post 33

.https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post31161191

[str]

I have a hypothetical question for everyone that cares to answer.


Here are two horses last personal splits who are pointing for the Ky. Derby at 1 1/4 miles . Both won their last race about the same way. Ridden out.

I realize that this is a tough question because there are so many things like pace, post position, track condition, etc. that are unknown, but, if you had to choose now, who would everyone bet on at the projected odds and why?


Horse A. 2-1 odds. Longest race is 1 1/16th. Raced 6 times. Mid pack closer.

Personnel splits :24 2/5ths, 24 3/5ths, 24/ 2/5ths, 6 1/5th


Horse B. 12-1 odds. Longest race is 1 3/16ths. Raced 4 times. Speed, position, stalker.

Personnel splits :24 3/5ths, 25 flat, 24 2/5ths, 6 1/5th, 12 flat

[JBEX]

I have a hypothetical question for everyone that cares to answer.


Here are two horses last personal splits who are pointing for the Ky. Derby at 1 1/4 miles . Both won their last race about the same way. Ridden out.

I realize that this is a tough question because there are so many things like pace, post position, track condition, etc. that are unknown, but, if you had to choose now, who would everyone bet on at the projected odds and why?


Horse A. 2-1 odds. Longest race is 1 1/16th. Raced 6 times. Mid pack closer.

Personnel splits :24 2/5ths, 24 3/5ths, 24/ 2/5ths, 6 1/5th


Horse B. 12-1 odds. Longest race is 1 3/16ths. Raced 4 times. Speed, position, stalker.

Personnel splits :24 3/5ths, 25 flat, 24 2/5ths, 6 1/5th, 12 flat

well I know who horse B is lol..internal splits very similar and less than a half second favoring A..but the important thing to me is the more favorable running style of B and getting that extra 1/8th of a mile in before the derby..then the odds and it's a no-brainer
for B

[Easy-Rider 66]

well I know who horse B is lol..internal splits very similar and less than a half second favoring A..but the important thing to me is the more favorable running style of B and getting that extra 1/8th of a mile in before the derby..then the odds and it's a no-brainer
for B

agreed

[str]

I have a hypothetical question for everyone that cares to answer.


Here are two horses last personal splits who are pointing for the Ky. Derby at 1 1/4 miles . Both won their last race about the same way. Ridden out.

I realize that this is a tough question because there are so many things like pace, post position, track condition, etc. that are unknown, but, if you had to choose now, who would everyone bet on at the projected odds and why?


Horse A. 2-1 odds. Longest race is 1 1/16th. Raced 6 times. Mid pack closer.

Personnel splits :24 2/5ths, 24 3/5ths, 24/ 2/5ths, 6 1/5th


Horse B. 12-1 odds. Longest race is 1 3/16ths. Raced 4 times. Speed, position, stalker.

Personnel splits :24 3/5ths, 25 flat, 24 2/5ths, 6 1/5th, 12 flat

well I know who horse B is lol..internal splits very similar and less than a half second favoring A..but the important thing to me is the more favorable running style of B and getting that extra 1/8th of a mile in before the derby..then the odds and it's a no-brainer
for B

agreed

No knock on horse A. Obviously a really nice horse ( Forte). But with horse B (Kingsbarns), The final 1/8th in 12 flat is telling. But just as telling is the amount of maturity, mental focus from the horse , connection that focus brings between horse and rider, and the ability to rate, respond, relax, go, heck anything the rider wants. Oh, and he can run all day long.

Certainly this is not to say he won't have a new obstacle in front of him with his next race at another different track, a very full field and all the noise, hype, hoopla, and crap that Derby day brings.

Kingsbarns professionalism, his smarts for lack of a better word, are waaaay ahead of where they should be at this point in his short career. I am blown away at how smart this horse shows he is. How professional he seems with so little experience. These are things you try and teach a young horse. But to have such a grasp on them after 3 races and actually 2 races at the time is, in my mind, incredible.

As impressive as his race was on Saturday, I was just as impressed with how he handled what went on in the gate prior to the break. The horse next to him crashed into the stall door as the field awaited the break, reared up, and broke through the gate. That would have unnerved 99.99% of any 3rd time starter out there standing right next to the horse that did that. But what did Kingsbarns do? He got excited for about 2-3 seconds. Quickly gathered himself , stood like a pro, and beat the gate when it opened. That is UN- Be- Lievable for any horse with his amount of experience. After seeing that, then a horse run up into his right eye around the clubhouse turn, then him moving forward immediately upon command from Prat, so as to get that eye back and be a 1/2 a length in front, and just as quick as he moved, he came back to himself and Prat and relaxed with a 25 second second quarter.

That is the stuff nice 4 year olds do. Not horses after two starts. It was a pleasure to watch. And as soon as I saw 49 + , that race was OVER. As they say, They could have gone around again.

[Easy-Rider 66]

JBEX does not Think The King has much of a shot based on the paper readings. But your take STR convinces me otherwise. Lets see what his odds are come KY Derby day. I may throw down some coins on the Kingbarns. thx,

[JBEX]

No knock on horse A. Obviously a really nice horse ( Forte). But with horse B (Kingsbarns), The final 1/8th in 12 flat is telling. But just as telling is the amount of maturity, mental focus from the horse , connection that focus brings between horse and rider, and the ability to rate, respond, relax, go, heck anything the rider wants. Oh, and he can run all day long.

Certainly this is not to say he won't have a new obstacle in front of him with his next race at another different track, a very full field and all the noise, hype, hoopla, and crap that Derby day brings.

Kingsbarns professionalism, his smarts for lack of a better word, are waaaay ahead of where they should be at this point in his short career. I am blown away at how smart this horse shows he is. How professional he seems with so little experience. These are things you try and teach a young horse. But to have such a grasp on them after 3 races and actually 2 races at the time is, in my mind, incredible.

As impressive as his race was on Saturday, I was just as impressed with how he handled what went on in the gate prior to the break. The horse next to him crashed into the stall door as the field awaited the break, reared up, and broke through the gate. That would have unnerved 99.99% of any 3rd time starter out there standing right next to the horse that did that. But what did Kingsbarns do? He got excited for about 2-3 seconds. Quickly gathered himself , stood like a pro, and beat the gate when it opened. That is UN- Be- Lievable for any horse with his amount of experience. After seeing that, then a horse run up into his right eye around the clubhouse turn, then him moving forward immediately upon command from Prat, so as to get that eye back and be a 1/2 a length in front, and just as quick as he moved, he came back to himself and Prat and relaxed with a 25 second second quarter.

That is the stuff nice 4 year olds do. Not horses after two starts. It was a pleasure to watch. And as soon as I saw 49 + , that race was OVER. As they say, They could have gone around again.

just goes to show there are other ways to judge a horse than just his pace and speed figures..stuff that you pointed out is certainly beyond what I would notice although I did get the feeling he was very professional and smart..winning first out at a mile at gulfstream might be a sign of that as it's not easy to do beyond the stamina issues.. in a race like the derby there is no better place to have those things going for you


like the observation of how he handled the gate situation for a horse with so little experience.. another sign he's got a good head on him and mature beyond his age and experience


glad to hear your positive take on him ... definitely would be a horse I couldn't play based on past performances but feel the things you mentioned are also important to consider.. he should be fresh off his previous efforts and the rest.. possible he's only scratched the surface of what he's capable of


thanks for the great insight str

[str]

just goes to show there are other ways to judge a horse than just his pace and speed figures..stuff that you pointed out is certainly beyond what I would notice although I did get the feeling he was very professional and smart..winning first out at a mile at gulfstream might be a sign of that as it's not easy to do beyond the stamina issues.. in a race like the derby there is no better place to have those things going for you


like the observation of how he handled the gate situation for a horse with so little experience.. another sign he's got a good head on him and mature beyond his age and experience


glad to hear your positive take on him ... definitely would be a horse I couldn't play based on past performances but feel the things you mentioned are also important to consider.. he should be fresh off his previous efforts and the rest.. possible he's only scratched the surface of what he's capable of


thanks for the great insight str

I do understand your view based on the PP's. That makes all the sense in the world. What I am locked on to with this horse are the intangibles. I am heaping high praise for the horses mental ability and how he has connected to Todd's program. It is really something special.
What we do not know about him yet is exactly HOW good he can get. He does need to continue to climb and in a hurry with the Derby next up and right around the corner. Can he do it? For the average horse I would say, probably not. It's just asking too much too quickly.
But for him, it is impossible to say. He has every excuse to lose and gain from the experience. But he has also had that in his first race, a mile MSW, and this last race, which I have talked about.

I guess the excitement for me is that I know that he is a special talent both mentally and physically and can't wait to see more. It might all fall apart, and, more often than not it does. But if he continues forward, look out.
It is going to be very entertaining to watch.
And when the race is over, if anyone asks me "did you see the Derby"? My answer will be no, I was watching Kingsbarns.

[JBEX]

I do understand your view based on the PP's. That makes all the sense in the world. What I am locked on to with this horse are the intangibles. I am heaping high praise for the horses mental ability and how he has connected to Todd's program. It is really something special.
What we do not know about him yet is exactly HOW good he can get. He does need to continue to climb and in a hurry with the Derby next up and right around the corner. Can he do it? For the average horse I would say, probably not. It's just asking too much too quickly.
But for him, it is impossible to say. He has every excuse to lose and gain from the experience. But he has also had that in his first race, a mile MSW, and this last race, which I have talked about.

I guess the excitement for me is that I know that he is a special talent both mentally and physically and can't wait to see more. It might all fall apart, and, more often than not it does. But if he continues forward, look out.
It is going to be very entertaining to watch.
And when the race is over, if anyone asks me "did you see the Derby"? My answer will be no, I was watching Kingsbarns.

I think a good effort without winning in this case would be considered a huge positive maybe more-so than for your typical contender..doesn't necessarily have to be in the money but a 4th through 6th with a trouble line or pace compromised would be fine..if he does at least that and comes out OK I think there's a good chance he'll do some damage later in the year..possibly next out in the preakness where he's already won at the distance in last race..not like he's had a hard campaign so maybe he'd be ok to return in 2 weeks..I think (besides the obvious of him winning the Derby) if todd decides to run in the 2nd leg he will be a tough customer


You seem to really like this horse lol..i'd like to see him have a good year beyond the derby also ..I'd say if he can pull it off he's worth $30-40M easy and it'll be a lot more than that if he finishes the year well..considering he's owned by spendthrift farm I think his future is a stallion there..just be a question of what the fee will be based on his performance the rest of the way

should be fun to watch ..thanks str

[Madison]

Forte tomorrow ... doesn't need the points. What perc do we see from him??

[JBEX]

Forte tomorrow ... doesn't need the points. What perc do we see from him??

I see no reason why they wouldn't want the best performance from him even though they don't need the points ..what is interesting is he and the other logical contenders (except mage) are post 9 and out ..just the fact he's post 11 a little reason for concern and I think all under 10-1's are legit upsetters ..going to look at it more tomorrow

[JBEX]

I see no reason why they wouldn't want the best performance from him even though they don't need the points ..what is interesting is he and the other logical contenders (except mage) are post 9 and out ..just the fact he's post 11 a little reason for concern and I think all under 10-1's are legit upsetters ..going to look at it more tomorrow

florida derby


#9 cyclone mischief (8-1)

think he was pace compromised in bad effort two back.. went right to the front last out with decent fractions and didn't give it up horribly to finish 3rd (beaten by forte by about 6 lengths).. his line in his last race reminds me of the one he ran prior to his big effort here 3 back where he stalked the pace.. switches to castellano and think this will be the tactic he employs in this race.. with forte breaking from the 11 post and "hey you never know" I like this one at what will be decent odds

[JBEX]

florida derby


#9 cyclone mischief (8-1)

think he was pace compromised in bad effort two back.. went right to the front last out with decent fractions and didn't give it up horribly to finish 3rd (beaten by forte by about 6 lengths).. his line in his last race reminds me of the one he ran prior to his big effort here 3 back where he stalked the pace.. switches to castellano and think this will be the tactic he employs in this race.. with forte breaking from the 11 post and "hey you never know" I like this one at what will be decent odds

#9.. had 8 originally. sorry

[mrginandtonic]

Taking the 4- Mage (ML 10-1) with Saez on board; the best front running jockey right now IMO. He needs the points and will control the speed and need to hold off Forte; Exacta Box 4,11,12. GL all

[str]

florida derby


#9 cyclone mischief (8-1)

think he was pace compromised in bad effort two back.. went right to the front last out with decent fractions and didn't give it up horribly to finish 3rd (beaten by forte by about 6 lengths).. his line in his last race reminds me of the one he ran prior to his big effort here 3 back where he stalked the pace.. switches to castellano and think this will be the tactic he employs in this race.. with forte breaking from the 11 post and "hey you never know" I like this one at what will be decent odds

Taking the 4- Mage (ML 10-1) with Saez on board; the best front running jockey right now IMO. He needs the points and will control the speed and need to hold off Forte; Exacta Box 4,11,12. GL all

Seems to be the best way to approach this race. Of course, Forte is tons the best, but why not try and beat the odds on favorite with a real tough post position.

Good luck to both of you.

[str]

Forte tomorrow ... doesn't need the points. What perc do we see from him??

They do not need those points to run in the Derby but no question, they want the horse to continue upward going into his next race.

[str]

I think a good effort without winning in this case would be considered a huge positive maybe more-so than for your typical contender..doesn't necessarily have to be in the money but a 4th through 6th with a trouble line or pace compromised would be fine..if he does at least that and comes out OK I think there's a good chance he'll do some damage later in the year..possibly next out in the preakness where he's already won at the distance in last race..not like he's had a hard campaign so maybe he'd be ok to return in 2 weeks..I think (besides the obvious of him winning the Derby) if todd decides to run in the 2nd leg he will be a tough customer


You seem to really like this horse lol..i'd like to see him have a good year beyond the derby also ..I'd say if he can pull it off he's worth $30-40M easy and it'll be a lot more than that if he finishes the year well..considering he's owned by spendthrift farm I think his future is a stallion there..just be a question of what the fee will be based on his performance the rest of the way

should be fun to watch ..thanks str

Q. I think a good effort without winning in this case would be considered a huge positive maybe more-so than for your typical contender..doesn't necessarily have to be in the money but a 4th through 6th with a trouble line or pace compromised would be fine..if he does at least that and comes out OK I think there's a good chance he'll do some damage later in the year..possibly next out in the preakness where he's already won at the distance in last race..not like he's had a hard campaign so maybe he'd be ok to return in 2 weeks..I think (besides the obvious of him winning the Derby) if todd decides to run in the 2nd leg he will be a tough customer

A. Makes perfect sense to me.


Q. You seem to really like this horse lol..i'd like to see him have a good year beyond the derby also ..I'd say if he can pull it off he's worth $30-40M easy and it'll be a lot more than that if he finishes the year well..considering he's owned by spendthrift farm I think his future is a stallion there..just be a question of what the fee will be based on his performance the rest of the way

should be fun to watch ..thanks str


A. What has caught my eye with this horse is that we see horses that just are faster than others. We see some that are more tactical than others. And we see some that have more heart than most. But by the time we know all this, they have won their way to the top and everybody sees it.

In Kingsbarns, you got me on the horse before his first start. That allowed me to watch the progression he has made to this point. It's been fun to watch. It allowed me to see him through a handlers eyes. Like training a firster, instead of hoping on after he has won several races.

It's been a long time since I had done that and while I had a lot of horses, some which were Stakes quality, I never had anything of this caliber.
To be able to watch as a trainer, someone who worked towards the goals this horse has made it to and beyond, has been something that I did not except to remember as vividly as I do.
So a good part of my liking this horse, has to be that. But that said, he has passed every test so far. Handled things like a pro. Some of those things, it is hard to believe he was able to handle them at all much less as professionally as he did.

I suppose it is for those reasons, that I like this horse as much as I do. It is a lot more about the horse than it is saying he will win whatever.

So far, he has been freaky in all the good ways. Just have to hope he can continue that as he quickly moves on to the acid tests that lie in wait.

[JBEX]

get what your saying..a lot of the intangibles (to the nth degree) that the layman wouldn't see you feel he possesses ...doesn't necessarily mean he's going to step it up vs much better competition but certainly helps to have these qualities going in

checked the future pool and he's currently sitting at 10-1..just using it as a gage for what the public thinks of him



on a separate note there's an army mule firster going at oaklawn

R4 #6 federal judge (8-1) 2:45

looks good beyond the fact it's one of his progeny




.

[str]

get what your saying..a lot of the intangibles (to the nth degree) that the layman wouldn't see you feel he possesses ...doesn't necessarily mean he's going to step it up vs much better competition but certainly helps to have these qualities going in

checked the future pool and he's currently sitting at 10-1..just using it as a gage for what the public thinks of him



on a separate note there's an army mule firster going at oaklawn

R4 #6 federal judge (8-1) 2:45

looks good beyond the fact it's one of his progeny




.

Just saw this. Looks like he outworked the 7-5 shot last week, who ran big 1st out.

Can't imagine 8-1.

Thanks and GL if you play JBEX !!

[str]

get what your saying..a lot of the intangibles (to the nth degree) that the layman wouldn't see you feel he possesses ...doesn't necessarily mean he's going to step it up vs much better competition but certainly helps to have these qualities going in

checked the future pool and he's currently sitting at 10-1..just using it as a gage for what the public thinks of him



on a separate note there's an army mule firster going at oaklawn

R4 #6 federal judge (8-1) 2:45

looks good beyond the fact it's one of his progeny




.

Wow. That is low.

[Madison]

Thanks again gentlemen you make this a lot more fun. BOL!!

[JBEX]

Wow. That is low.

KB is still 10-1 which makes him 2nd choice to forte @ 5-2..3rd choice tapit trice @ 11-1


commonality..all pletcher

Thanks again gentlemen you make this a lot more fun. BOL!!

no problem Madison..labor of love

.

[JBEX]

Just saw this. Looks like he outworked the 7-5 shot last week, who ran big 1st out.

Can't imagine 8-1.

Thanks and GL if you play JBEX !!

no problem str..looks like they have a good one !

[str]

Just saw this. Looks like he outworked the 7-5 shot last week, who ran big 1st out.

Can't imagine 8-1.

Thanks and GL if you play JBEX !!

no problem str..looks like they have a good one !

OMG !!

16.80 WOW.

Outworked the 3-5 shot , blistered out of the gate the work before. What ????

That's incredible !

[JBEX]

OMG !!

16.80 WOW.

Outworked the 3-5 shot , blistered out of the gate the work before. What ????

That's incredible !

I would've guessed lower than ml also with all the positives including the trainer is killing it at the meet..saw the work and honestly didn't notice that before but saw that they were impressive in general

he did seem to get to the front pretty easily and settled in nicely soon after..rebutted challenge on the turn and seemed to switch leads on cue

[JBEX]

I would've guessed lower than ml also with all the positives including the trainer is killing it at the meet..saw the work and honestly didn't notice that before but saw that they were impressive in general

he did seem to get to the front pretty easily and settled in nicely soon after..rebutted challenge on the turn and seemed to switch leads on cue

would seem like a good spot..

4/29

oaklawn

bachelor stakes
$150k
3yo
6F


.

[JBEX]

I would've guessed lower than ml also with all the positives including the trainer is killing it at the meet..saw the work and honestly didn't notice that before but saw that they were impressive in general

he did seem to get to the front pretty easily and settled in nicely soon after..rebutted challenge on the turn and seemed to switch leads on cue

actually looking at it again I think he switched leads later than I thought..around the 1/16th pole ?? still struggle a bit with this

[str]

actually looking at it again I think he switched leads later than I thought..around the 1/16th pole ?? still struggle a bit with this

He switched out to his right lead with his first stride once they straightened away for home. Right on que.

Man these A M's are NICE !

[str]

Looks like Flavian Prat has a decision to make as to who he will ride in the Derby.

Kingsbarns or Angel Of Empire.

While picking a mount is not as easy as it might seem when both are off wins, at least we will get to see who Flavian was more impressed with.

Should be interesting.

[JBEX]

He switched out to his right lead with his first stride once they straightened away for home. Right on que.

Man these A M's are NICE !

was right in the first place..should've left well enough alone lol


yes he had a great first crop..it'll be interesting to see how the 2nd crop does which is about to start in the next few months

Looks like Flavian Prat has a decision to make as to who he will ride in the Derby.

Kingsbarns or Angel Of Empire.

While picking a mount is not as easy as it might seem when both are off wins, at least we will get to see who Flavian was more impressed with.

Should be interesting.

yes that probably will offer a good sign of the talent either of them have..could see if only one was a major stable and it being a close choice go there but in this case two of the best in the country




.

[Madison]

OMG !!

16.80 WOW.

Outworked the 3-5 shot , blistered out of the gate the work before. What ????

That's incredible !

Brain fart here. Boy don't get old. I bought into the 7 and played ex 7/346 and 6/7. That young remaining brain cell kept telling me to box 3467 ex but the older dumber cells won (or lost) out.

[str]

Brain fart here. Boy don't get old. I bought into the 7 and played ex 7/346 and 6/7. That young remaining brain cell kept telling me to box 3467 ex but the older dumber cells won (or lost) out.

Sorry to hear but everybody misses some horses they like because of ticket decisions.

Don't worry about it.

One thing I learned a long time ago was, for me, it was better to play a firster to win only. I do not put firsters in exactas or triples or whatever. And if I did, it would only be on top.

With all the things that can bother a firster, if they can win, great. But if not, I found that IMO, many more finished well back even if they had the ability to run second.

I do play exactas quite a bit when I play if the scenario fits but when I see a maiden race , I rarely consider it if I'm on a firster. But that's just me.
You have to find a rule like that and use it only if it makes sense to you and the percentages back it up.

GL Madison.
All the best sir.

[str]

Thanks again gentlemen you make this a lot more fun. BOL!!

Anytime Madison.

[JBEX]

hey str


do you think todd might have a strong opinion on KB chances in the derby assuming he gets a reasonable trip..could he be thinking anywhere from he's in over his head to haven't nearly gotten to the bottom and he could easily get it done..the conversation with the owners is going to be an honest assessment and not sugar-coated I would assume

realize he's got forte and the other besides KB will also probably be a top 5 contender but that shouldn't really come in to play with his assessment of KB chances ..would you say each one is a separate entity and discussed with it's owner(s) privately ?





.