[jjgold]

No idea if it works

Only bets they make is when a + in front of the number

[johnnyvegas13]

I have thought of this myself

ussually don’t like ml over -130

always betting + money good rule for live betting tho

[d2bets]

I have thought of this myself

ussually don’t like ml over -130

always betting + money good rule for live betting tho

Live betting shows you the value of each point. Like you will see into a 4th quarter your team might be -4.5-120 or -5.5+120. Something like that. And so at that point would you rather have -4.5-115 or -5.5+105 in your portfolio? It's a combination of the odds and the spread. You can't ignore either. + money isn't a holy grail. Juice can also be paid in the form of a bad spread.

[stevex]

Good luck with that in tennis or especially the NHL this season. Favorites have been killing it in those sports.

[flyingillini]

As Brock says. You don’t pay juice if you win.

[johnnyvegas13]

Live betting shows you the value of each point. Like you will see into a 4th quarter your team might be -4.5-120 or -5.5+120. Something like that. And so at that point would you rather have -4.5-115 or -5.5+105 in your portfolio? It's a combination of the odds and the spread. You can't ignore either. + money isn't a holy grail. Juice can also be paid in the form of a bad spread.

I meant + money on ml not spreads

that way u can take other side ml at +money

[johnnyvegas13]

As Brock says. You don’t pay juice if you win.

If that’s not the dumbest thing I heard

u r evutuly gonna lose and pay the jice

[flyingillini]

If that’s not the dumbest thing I heard

u r evutuly gonna lose and pay the jice

Agreed but it’s what he says. He wins more than he loses.

[shadymcgrady]

So that means the odds are NEVER factored into the line? Wow what a shocking discovery, I'm actually more surprised the thread title wasn't written in crayon with a backwards R or two

[pilebuck13]

So that means the odds are NEVER factored into the line? Wow what a shocking discovery, I'm actually more surprised the thread title wasn't written in crayon with a backwards R or two

Shady there are guys on here who are waiting for the chance to battle you at a bash

[OldBill]

i never do live betting i play fg only and only nfl because i know when to bet on or aginst a team

like my new system fade teams after they lose a game by 1 point is producing 93% wins over 11 years

[GunShard]

Betting on UFC -300 and greater line is the only juice line that's profitable.

[stevenash]

Shady there are guys on here who are waiting for the chance to battle you at a bash

Shady's OK, I'll take on JJ.

[jjgold]

Classic quote there

As Brock says. You don’t pay juice if you win.

[SamsNCharge99]

Love the juice. Dont know a + sign

[Optional]

90% of my bets probably +odds

But that doesn't mean zero juice in markets...

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Interesting topic. In theory, makes sense.

Betting +100 means you have to hit > 50% winners to clear a profit. Easier said than done.

[TommieGunshot]

No idea if it works

Only bets they make is when a + in front of the number

It is crazy that jj has been here for 17 years and still refuses to understand the most basic parts about betting. The entire purpose of a bookmaker is to charge juice on all bets. If I bet on a column on roulette at +200, the juice is that I need to win 33.33% of all bets to breakeven, but the probability of winning each bet is either 31.58% or 32.43%. Over time, the casino will earn 2.6% on a single zero wheel or 5.2% on a double zero. It is the same with sports betting. If I bet the Pirates at +200, but their chance of winning is less than 33.33%, I am paying juice to the bookmaker.

There are ways to bet with an edge, where the payouts exceed the probability, but that can happen when betting +200 or -200, or any other price.

[pavyracer]

I know gamblers who bet winners regardless of lines.

It is very simple. There are two lines in every game. Your job is to figure out which team will win and bet it. Your job is not to randomly bet a line that will lose so you can save on juice.

Is this a gambling forum or a clown convention?

[TommieGunshot]

As Brock says. You don’t pay juice if you win.

Explain how this is possible. If I bet the Raptors moneyline and they lose, I get back zero, no matter what the odds were. I was paid exactly the same as if I bet a fair line, or a line with juice. But if I bet them and win, the payout will change based on the line, which is based on the juice the bookie charges. If I bet them at -170 when a fair price was -150, that means my winning bet paid out 8% less that a fair line. In other words, the winning bet paid 8% in juice.

[False Start]

Explain how this is possible. If I bet the Raptors moneyline and they lose, I get back zero, no matter what the odds were. I was paid exactly the same as if I bet a fair line, or a line with juice. But if I bet them and win, the payout will change based on the line, which is based on the juice the bookie charges. If I bet them at -170 when a fair price was -150, that means my winning bet paid out 8% less that a fair line. In other words, the winning bet paid 8% in juice.

EXACTLY.
You pay juice on winners.

Most people are still stuck in the old-times when you called in to a bookie and said "give me 20-timer on the Eagles."
You would pay $110 if the bet loses, and collect $100 if the bet wins.

However, in almost every other place you bet TO RISK $100. Lose only $100 if lose. (No juice)
Get paid $90.90 if it's a winner.
Juice is paid on winnings, not losses.

[shadymcgrady]

Shady there are guys on here who are waiting for the chance to battle you at a bash

I can't wait, I set bear traps all the time. The real tough guys aspiring to be mma stars that I get my arse kicked by in training are all the nicest dudes in the world.

It's the loud mouth jerk offs that like to act tough until they realize they've walked into a trap

[dark star]

yes JJ its true.....just keep betting pizzas at shitty SBR Sportsbook. FRAUD

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Goldy, try it out. I think you'll find it hard to clear a profit over time.

+Odds normally mean you're betting on the less talented team.

[Optional]

Goldy, try it out. I think you'll find it hard to clear a profit over time.

+Odds normally mean you're betting on the less talented team.

From day 1 of last NASCAR season to day 1 of it this year I only won just over 15% of bets that I placed, but made over 20% ROI on my gross turnover.

Doesn't matter what the odds are if there is enough +EV in the play.

And same with the when do you pay juice arguments. The only time there is no juice is when your bet is made at better than true odds. Win or lose, +odds or -odds.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Yes, Opti. It's about carving out an edge where True odds are better than the odds on your ticket.

If you can do it (particularly on Nascar), props to you. Impressive.

One question: How big of a THEORETICAL EDGE do you feel like you need b4 you are willing to place a bet? If you are clearing that profit margin on 15% winners, you must have hit some nice longshots.

[Optional]

Yes, Opti. It's about carving out an edge where True odds are better than the odds on your ticket.

If you can do it (particularly on Nascar), props to you. Impressive.

One question: How big of a THEORETICAL EDGE do you feel like you need b4 you are willing to place a bet? If you are clearing that profit margin on 15% winners, you must have hit some nice longshots.

I'm not that mathematical about it on a bet by bet basis. I just work out my numbers at year end. Last year was a better than average result but it's normal. I could do way better if I really only took +EV bets, but as you know I am a motorsport nut and just like betting on it.

But as far as edge. I probably find 2 or 3 bets per race week between 80-1 and 120-1 that I think should be 15-1 to 20-1.

Those 2 or 3 shots per week = 100 bets a year with an expectation to win 5 (at 20-1 true odds)

Not very often you will find 500% edges looking at low odds, or when only wanting to bet on the most talented player/team.


You can specialize in only betting super dogs, like 500-1 or worse, and if you have the patience and the right bet size to bank roll ratio, I believe you pretty much cannot lose. As with the edges you will find will mean your accuracy of calculating true odds can be way less accurate than the guys capping -105/-105 markets.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Very good, Opti.

I do believe in what I call the "niche handicapper." IE, a specialist in one or two betting markets.

I believe it's definitely possible to know a given sport better than the oddsmaker. Keep it going, Opti, Good Luck.

[Goat Milk]

Brooklyn ML +430 today in game. Were -8 before the game started.

[Brock Landers]

I know gamblers who bet winners regardless of lines.

It is very simple. There are two lines in every game. Your job is to figure out which team will win and bet it. Your job is not to randomly bet a line that will lose so you can save on juice.

Is this a gambling forum or a clown convention?

I have to commend this comment.

I've never seen what I do put into writing so perfectly. You summed up my approach to a T

[stevenash]

No idea if it works

Only bets they make is when a + in front of the number

Spot play baseball dogs.
I know you've been ready my posts the past ten years Goldy, when have I bet a -180 favorite unless on a two team money line parlay?
Now I may not have a 20 room mansion in Greenwich Ct. but I'm not a broke and buried either.

[texhooper]

I have to commend this comment.

I've never seen what I do put into writing so perfectly. You summed up my approach to a T

Pavy it’s now your turn for comment

[d2bets]

The only way to not pay juice is to use a lot of books. Synthesize your juice. If you don't know what that means, you probably can't win.

[jjgold]

I wonder if you just bet money lines and never bet a negative number

[d2bets]

Not paying juice has nothing to do with + or - odds.