Originally Posted by
Waterstpub87
Haven't tested as much in basketball, but in baseball:
I used to weight past 2 seasons, current season to date and last ten games (so the current and 10 overlap). Roughly 40%/45%/15% at the mid point of the season, for things like strikeouts,total bases ect. Ran more data before last season, used a regression. The 10 games came up with almost no weight. It could be different in basketball, but my guess is that recent above average performance is mean-reverting, and too much weight to more recent events could be counter productive. Will likely look more closely at this during the summer to get ready for next fall.