1. #1
    DISTROYA
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    Can you win with soccer draw bets?

    Maybe a criteria In which no team is favored for instance both of them are around plus 150 if you blindly bet the draw every game ? Then end of week out of say 30 game sample from big euro leagues....even if u draw third of the time bresk even etc? Was wondering if any math whiz has utilized or experimented with this. For instance I'm looking at the German league this week there a lot of games that probably will end up in a draw thar were probably close to even on the terms of pkem.
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  2. #2
    semibluff
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    Euro books update their records on the main leagues every year and adjust their odds accordingly. I would be surprised if you could find a top league where you could bet 1, 2, or X on every game and expect to make money over the season. Given that the book price for top division games is around 104.4% on a 3 outcome event you might well find seasons where doing exactly that would have shown a profit. Again, i'm pretty sure there would soon have been an adjustment made by the big books. There's simply too much data available on the top leagues and betting limits are much larger than on smaller leagues. Books that didn't react would get picked off.

    It should be noted that books are wise to different leagues and different competitions being likely to produce different levels of draws. It's not surprising to see the draw at +100 for top soccer nations playing against each other in an International tournament. By contrast the minimum price you'll see for a Premier League draw is probably +180. Going back to the 1980's the minimum draw price for a game in any of the top 4 English or top 2 Scottish leagues was +225. Odds on smaller leagues are much easier to beat, but books generally impose tiny limits to protect themselves.

  3. #3
    DISTROYA
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    Well said. I wish I would have the time to track it like you said I'm sure adjustments are made they are not stupid.
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  4. #4
    pavyracer
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    If you only bet draws on games that the odds are +175 for home wiin, +175 for away win and Draw +225 (within a variation of +15 on these odds for home and away win) you will win money betting draws in the long run. But you need to be disciplined. You may only find a few games with this criteria every week.
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  5. #5
    DISTROYA
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    nice pavy; seems like you know numbers criterion. Im also thinking when you see PK lines around -120 or less either way.
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  6. #6
    gojetsgomoxies
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    interesting subject. it is something i've thought about over time.

    isn't the age old question on line-setting whether books try to balance the action or if they will take a position where they think the market is wrong?

    if no one else wants to bet ties, you will get a great price in theory. but then either the books or sharps will play the ties.

    basically, i do think the public doesn't want to play ties......... as mentioned, yes the books will know which leagues/teams/etc. have more ties but will the adjustment be enough.

    it's funny, it seems like there's so much out there in terms of touts for american sports, but i've never noticed too much for soccer, which is surprising at least for british soccer as they have betting shops on every high street...... maybe i just notice it. i'm sure it exists.

  7. #7
    cincinnatikid513
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    good lucks betting the draws they seem to happen alot in the argentina leagues alot of 1-1 0-0 games
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  8. #8
    gojetsgomoxies
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    i would think there'd be interesting matrix of 1) home/away, 2) playing better/worse teams..... gotta be predictable situations. of course, the ultimate test is if it's in the numbers.

    you could always google or check ssrn.com for soccer betting

  9. #9
    gojetsgomoxies
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    https://www.soccervista.com/soccer_l...r_of_draws.php

    there you go.......... many other interesting screens there...... i see a screen as to how good favourites are in each league, but i sense it's just win rate, nothing to do with odds at all.

  10. #10
    gojetsgomoxies
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    i did analysis on what i think are the top 5 soccer leagues......... two related problems. the stats don't seem to have dates attached. and i think the french league changed its name. and there are stats for each name and they are very different at times

    favorite ties goals homefield

    england 14.5 25.4 2.76 1.53
    germany 12.1 20.7 4 1.6
    italy 15.1 22.8 2.9 1.44
    spain 12.3 28.3 2.55 1.7

    france (D1) 46 16.7 3.29 1.37
    france (L1) 10.6 25 2.5 1.68

  11. #11
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    https://www.soccervista.com/soccer_l...r_of_draws.php

    there you go.......... many other interesting screens there...... i see a screen as to how good favourites are in each league, but i sense it's just win rate, nothing to do with odds at all.
    There's 3 problems with those stats:
    1. Normal distribution always creates leagues that appear draw-heavy, but it might be just seasonal variance.
    2. The leagues that are draw heavy long term are either super defensive or there is actually great parity within the league such as Bundesliga 2.
    3. Some leagues have no parity, favs win 80% so of course there's very few draws.

    All in all, whatever you can find in these draw tables is baked into the line.
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  12. #12
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    If you only bet draws on games that the odds are +175 for home wiin, +175 for away win and Draw +225 (within a variation of +15 on these odds for home and away win) you will win money betting draws in the long run. But you need to be disciplined. You may only find a few games with this criteria every week.
    1. Does it work in every league? 2. Is it based on closing odds? 3. If both teams had 0 draws in last 10 games, does it matter?
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  13. #13
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    There's 3 problems with those stats:
    1. Normal distribution always creates leagues that appear draw-heavy, but it might be just seasonal variance.
    2. The leagues that are draw heavy long term are either super defensive or there is actually great parity within the league such as Bundesliga 2.
    3. Some leagues have no parity, favs win 80% so of course there's very few draws.

    All in all, whatever you can find in these draw tables is baked into the line.
    i agree on all those points and had thought of all of them. i was just throwing in some data ........ basically, true significance/persistence of all of these stats and the market discounting them if they are real

    i think "propensity to tie" is persistent but obviously the market should know this. i'm more curious on whether HFA is persistent.... if long beach state (with its crowd of 1500) has been a great HFA first half of season, should that persist to 2nd half

    i always think of skewness of leagues. teams like PSG so much better than their league. but is the 3rd/4th/5th/etc. team? and england is 4-5 teams that spend way more money than anyone else. spain 3 teams? italy 4-5 teams (not sure about roma teams or both milan teams)... germany i have no idea.

    not sure about lesser leagues like bulgaria..... my guess is the the govt wants one or two decent teams in the biggest cities. so sofia should be much better than the rest of the bulgarian league

    basically we are looking for the draw heavy leagues

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