Originally Posted by
Waterstpub87
It depends on your religion. The open should be relatively where they think the close will be. If you believe that beating the close = winning, which is what I've gathered by your posts before, you have to take a position on how the line is set. If square money moves the line, the Yankees are probably not the theoretical right side, as the square money will come in on the other side. If sharp money moves the line only, ignoring the public money, and the yankees fundamentally are correct then this is a good play.
Yankees are a bad example though, because they tend to be a public team anyway.But it is also a chicken vs egg problem. If they yankees should be -200 because of fundamentals, and then open at -150 because of random, unimportant factors like the starter losing the last 3 games or not scoring the game before, then it is a sharp play. But if the fair price is yankees -150, then the other factors are unimportant. Without knowing a proper price on the yankees, you are unable to determine whether they are undervalued or not.