Stagnant System

**tsty** · 05-26-17, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by sportsbetter21

What do the pros do when your betting strategy goes stagnant?

what the penetrate does this even mean?

**sportsbetter21** · 05-30-17, 09:05 AM

Im hitting 51% with my totals
I need to hit 53% to make some money

Originally posted by tsty

what the penetrate does this even mean?

**Alfa1234** · 05-30-17, 12:07 PM

How many bets are we talking here?

**sportsbetter21** · 05-31-17, 09:27 AM

Im at 130 plays this year
running totals streaks 2017 if you want to check it out

**Waterstpub87** · 05-31-17, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by sportsbetter21

Im at 130 plays this year
running totals streaks 2017 if you want to check it out

130 is nothing. What does Total Streaks mean?

**Alfa1234** · 05-31-17, 02:56 PM

If your previous years have shown a consistant edge, those 130 plays are simply variance and are to be expected. Sample size is way too small to conclude the edge is gone...(then again, it may never have been there in the first place).

**sportsbetter21** · 06-01-17, 05:35 AM

I'm
Thinking the later half of your statement.
Just trying to figure out if this is starting to become a time waster.

**Auto Donk** · 06-01-17, 08:33 AM

I stay away from anything stagnant; the "pros" I know have to keep their systems clean or I run.....

after recommending this:

**stevek173** · 06-01-17, 09:47 AM

He's suggesting that you douche.

**sportsbetter21** · 06-01-17, 06:21 PM

shrug

Originally posted by stevek173

He's suggesting that you douche.

**semibluff** · 06-01-17, 06:43 PM

On coin-flip type events at odds of -110 each-of-two most people statistically hit at around 51.8%. People beat the odds but don't cover the juice. The best advice I can give is:
1) Keep honest records of your bets and examine those records for where you make money and where you lose money.
2) Figure out what odds you would lay on the events you would bet on and only bet when you're getting better odds than should be the case.

**sportsbetter21** · 06-02-17, 09:30 AM

Thanks for the quality response
appreciate it

**Auto Donk** · 06-02-17, 09:36 AM

example of an "un-stagnant system":

definitely all systems "GO"!!!

**Auto Donk** · 06-02-17, 02:45 PM

at the other end of the spectrum.... are stagnant systems that evoke this reaction:

for any weed smokers, I'm sure you can relate to this:

**KVB** · 06-02-17, 11:19 PM

If you have a winning system that is being out paced by the market then you likely wouldn't see less of a win percentage, but you would more likely gradually see less plays to make.

As your edge in price or line decreases from a winning situation then you would see your numbers becoming more and more in line with the market, and seeing less discrepancy from which to bet.

It can be tough to tell, but seeing less opportunity over time would worry me more than a bad streak.

**Auto Donk** · 06-03-17, 05:13 PM

kvb definitely one of the sharpest minds, and sharpest sharps, on SBR......

man knows his stuff!

**stevek173** · 06-03-17, 06:29 PM

I was just thinking exactly what KVB said and then saw that he posted it

**tsty** · 06-04-17, 03:04 AM

it's because you weren't winning before but running good

**stevek173** · 06-04-17, 10:43 AM

I think it's because he was winning before and started winning less and realized that he likes wining more better.

**tsty** · 06-04-17, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by stevek173

I think it's because he was winning before and started winning less and realized that he likes wining more better.

When has a thread like this ever been made when a player is getting odds that are the same as the market? Never.

He is still getting spat out information saying that he has edge but isn't winning now

This just means he wasn't a winner and was running good

**evo34** · 06-22-17, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by KVB

If you have a winning system that is being out paced by the market then you likely wouldn't see less of a win percentage, but you would more likely gradually see less plays to make.

As your edge in price or line decreases from a winning situation then you would see your numbers becoming more and more in line with the market, and seeing less discrepancy from which to bet.

It can be tough to tell, but seeing less opportunity over time would worry me more than a bad streak.

Unfortunately, it rarely plays out like this for most situational systems. Once the market has caught up, your system will still fire just as often -- it just stops winning bc the situation no longer produces value and you have no way to detect pure value (or you wouldn't need a system in the first place). Knowing when to retire a formerly profitable system is one of the more difficult challenges in handicapping. I tend to err on the side of shutting them down early, since markets can become rapidly sharper.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-22-17, 02:57 AM

Might be short-run variance.

Go back to drawing board + check your input.