What is the better strategy in betting baseball daily? 1-2 strong bets or multiple 5-10 bets you feel good about?
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1 to 2 small to mid size bets, is the better strategy for most. Strong bets are too aggressive a policy. Most would be lucky to achieve 60% accuracy in all time stats. 60% plus strong bets are a recipe for failure. A handful of plays is more feasible to keep track of and specialize in via utilizing a smaller number of teams. 10-12 teams per day for most would be stretching themselves too thin, the quality of plays declines significantly.
Water is wet. Sky is blue.Comment -
I do not wager on baseball but I would think that since there are so many games every day, one would have to look for speific situation that you think would give you the best chance to win. That could be 1-7 games a day, or no games, depending on what you think is a good situation.Comment -
op, it's really up to you........... EV and money management factor into it..
if you want to bet alot of games (for a bunch of reasons), then taper the bet sizes on alot of games. some big bets on games you really like and very small bets on many of the games. i think a very small bet makes you focus more on what's going out there. sort of like peter lynch used to buy tiny positions in a very large number of companies in his mutual fund to forcibly keep them on his radar (and also to get them to send him their A/R's etc..)Comment -
Whatever you choose to do.... just remember one thing... everyone has a bad sport in regards to success rate. MLB is my worst sport. Spent 20 years trying to figure out any type of consistent angle or approach... nothing works. If a sport doesn't work for you... best to steer clear.Comment -
Baseball has always been the one sport where I felt comfortable playing the most volume. However, my volume is down this year, implying that the market odds have tightened up a bit to my model odds, and the fact that I am losing so far also adds validity to that theory.
Sabermetrics becoming so much more popular has hurt me a lot.
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The correct strategy is to always make good bets. More of them is better than less of them.
Baseball has the advantage of having the lowest commission. This time of year, being the only major sport available, combined with the low juice makes the market very efficient. I generally find the best bets on the higher juice props, which are much smaller, slower moving markets, like first inning, team to score first and -2.5. Home and under, and road and over parlays also have some valueComment -
In Baseball, stay with the small dogs. These little plus money dogs will keep you in a modest profit and out of danger of a Bankroll catastrophe. Wager within the +100 to +140 range and you will never get hurt.Comment -
great points. if you think your bets are +EV, fire away. makes no sense to not bet every edge you have.
full game plays, bet early. the market will give you plenty of feedback prior to first pitch if you've made a good bet or not. keep the good ones, sell the bad one, count your money.Comment -
Don't be scared to take the other side on a losing position if that is now the +ev play. If it isn't a +ev play then leave it alone.Comment -
The major problem with many of you guys is you do NOT concentrate on one sport and master it. Instead, you decide to wager on all, or most of the major sports. NCAA and NFL Football, NCAA ad NFL Hoops, MLB, and Hockey make up the big 6 of sports being wagered on sometime during the year. As the vast majority of you in here have found out, you have very little chance of overall success if you spread yourself too thin. Most of yo guys lack the patients needed to be a successful gambler.Comment -
I don't think Goose meant every game but probably meant to try to stay within that subset of games.
I have a database as well, going back very far.
Including 2010 and not 2019, I see a slightly higher percentage over more than 13,000 games, more than 45% to EMT's less than 45%.
I also only see a loss of closer to -250 units and it gets closer to -240 units when you had the playoffs.
I have closing lines there, some were based on a consensus, some Pinny, some are the same. I think it varied a little 10 and even 15 years ago.
Playoff games have been profitable over that long time.
We could break this down even more, maybe more recent.
Or add any other factors.Comment -
As far as the OP's question, a daily limit really is arbitrary constraint after many plays. Think of it more as a never ending rotation and save the discipline you would use to limit plays any given day and apply it to the play making in general.
Some days you will have none, and some you will have many. If you impose a daily limit you risk forcing plays to reach the limit, but even worse, you risk eliminating winners for no better reason than because you thought some other plays were winners too.
Over time, you aren't really limiting your risk for the appropriate reasons.
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Dude, you didn't even read this thread or its title.
Get the fuk out of the think tank, can you be a bigger idiot?
This thread is about MLB and only MLB.
In fact, it's getting specific within the league.
What your posting doesn't have anything to do with this thread.
Get out of the Think Tank fool, we know you lie about betting, and do it in this subforum even. That is uncalled for in every way.
Quit pretending to gamble and go be a tough guy elsewhere.
Sheesh, unreal this guy and his completely irrelevant Think Tank post.
Unreal.Comment -
i focus on metrics that emphasize on expected runs and expected margin.
these offer the opportunity to decide if a bet has value or not.
it is up to youComment -
forgive lateness in reply LT
i only employ the approach on ML. i don't play many totals overall.
as for selling, depends on the situation. my plan isn't to maximize my profits, it's to limit my losses (the 2 are strongly related).
if i got a dog and the line moved against it, i'm coming back over the top to win .10 Units on the fave. short term there is pain, like last night when i sold KC and they won. i lost .33 units instead of winning 1.48 if i just let it ride. but i've been doing this for years. it's just a different way to look at the same problem.
we sports bettors get so locked into maximizing our winning percentage we never really look at the other direction. if the market agrees with your stake, you are going to win long term. if the market disagrees, you will lose.
admittedly, difficult to take a loss. i don't want to label my own idea genius, but it really is.
lines that moved against me this year when betting faves or dogs i'm +12.31 Units because of selling out of positions. but this year is way different and that number is usually negative. if i didn't option out of those -CLV plays i'd be down 12.18 Units this season.
historically i am down 34.79 Units on -CLV. however, if i weren't selling those crap positions i would have lost 96.01 Units.
hope that helps to illustrate the approach. hold tight to those faves and dogs that are +CLV. limit your losses on the plays that are -CLV. hate to keep harping on it, but we can maximize our profits by limiting our losses. the Market clearly tells us it's opinion of every position we take.
i'll end with the reason behind this approach being i sucked at handicapping MLB, the time investment would have been too great to attempt to get good at it, so i steal the information Market provides. only bet into reduced lines based on overnight moves. i'm lazy and this is as close to an auto-pilot approach i could find.Comment -
solid stuff KVB
i imagine our Unit difference would be due to closing line. i only pulled faves of -150 or less. but if the data source i used wasn't using 10 cent closer, there would be issues, as we see in the data now. I would trust your final Unit total more than mine based solely on the fact i can not attest to their approach. yet, i felt the numbers were good enough to prove the point that blindly betting any situation long term might not be ideal.
we hear this cliches tossed around and if they go unquestioned, new or novice gamblers are going to get hurt. no one wants to see that. we're in this together folks!
forgot to add, faves over that time were also down a few hundred units. that is why i always push people to trust the market. Believe Efficient Market Theory (EMT, get it?) people, it just is the reality we operate in.Comment -
my BOE estimate is that the average line in your was +117 on the dog, which would average -127 on a ten cent line. My estimate also shows a loss if you take the favorites. So if you bet small favs and win 55% of the bets, you still lose money. What are the beakeven points on a ten cent line?Comment -
unsure if you are asking me or someone else in the thread. unsure if you are looking for breakeven point, or if you are looking for no vig line on the 10 center. but good place to drop the math for people interested i guess. abbreviated of course, we can long hand it out should interest arise.
127 55.95%
117 46.08%
no vig line 121 (rounded down)
you'll notice the break even rates total 102.03%. hard to have an independent event with results higher than 100%. but with that 2.03% we know the books handle. why is that important?
long story short. lower handle in efficient market equals better book, sharper lines, faster moves, improved profitability for you.
hope that is what we you were looking for.Comment
