explain hows its a myth. I have no idea how you can even back test kelly if you dont know the true edge
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I never said that you said it was useless.
This is what you said:
Almost unusable? That's ridiculous.
I don't know if it is a semantic issue or not as I am glossing over what you and Danshan write because I view you two as one crazy unit.
Your Kelly views run counter to:
1. My direct experience
2. The direct experience of guys I know and trust
I know Kelly is not "unusable." I don't give two shits about being right or wrong, I care about getting to the truth and in this instance, I know what that is.Comment -
i think if you make it simple as in one bet it gets clearer at least for me
I have 10000 bankroll and I buy at odds of 2.00
now I have figured my line at 1.90
so using full kelly I would bet $526
but now if the game closes at 2.1 I should not have bet
and if it closes at 1.9 I should have not bet it
and if it closes at 1.7 I should have bet $1300
is this correct or not? or are we going to start saying again the closing line is not efficient and is not indicative of the implied win percentage on this particular game?Comment -
You moron no one beats the closing number 100% of the time unless their betting action shapes pretty much the closing number
Last edited by Okocha; 01-22-19, 01:35 PM.Comment -
first dont call people a moron when you spell it wrong! LMAO
second of course no one beats the closing line all the time
quit dodging and weaving and respond to my scenario, is that not how it plays out?Comment -
why are you talking about the closing line in a kelly debateComment -
for me edge is defined as
I bet at +100 and it closes at -120 that is edge
what do you define as edge?Comment -
is your model more efficient than the closing line over a good sample size?Comment -
jesusComment -
see that is where these conversations usually end up going. Momma said "kelly is a goodin for betting on bama" so it is!Comment -
agree and that is a myth, we know that our edge overall is very different than our edge on each individual game and year to year our edge changes drastically. I cannot see anyway that kelly could be helpful in that situation. Thanks heehaw and if I am totally wrong here, please guide me to where I am missing the point.
take DRH for example he had 3 winning season and 1 losing season, what would his expected value be? I also even for me have years I win at a really high rate and others where I just get destroyed. so kelly is not for the individual game its for the overall experience even though we have no clue what that edge is or will be. WE all know that models change the games change and return changes constantly daily and annually. very few people consistently win at a consistent rate by any stretch over the course of multiple seasons. one super year would really put your kelly numbers completely out of whack.Comment -
like here is DRH for example what would he use for his next bet? if you use the overall record that is definitely not indicative of his current edge for sure, please clarify thanks guys!
2014 MLB 267-231 56.55% (Adj.) +7.36c (+1.33%) +43.56 +7.88% 2015 MLB 199-162 56.46% (Adj.) +12.16c (+2.24%) +30.89 +7.78% 2016 MLB 204-163 57.63% (Adj.) +12.90c (+2.42%) +40.48 +10.60% 2017 MLB 182-142 57.48% (Adj.) +14.40c (+2.80%) +34.68 +10.14% 2018 MLB 83-87 49.39% (Adj.) +12.22c (+2.28%) -10.69 -5.75% TOTAL 935-785 56.23% (Adj.) +11.81c (+2.12%) +138.92 +7.52% Comment -
what happened you guys lose your SBR password and cant login?Comment -
betting to win 1% of bankroll on each wager also helps a ton with drawdown as wellComment -
I dont know shinola about kelly or care really. Thanks bsimsComment -
So let me get this straight. This thread had 122 posts. 42 of them are yours. Original poster asks a question. You reply that he should try Kelly. You make 40 more posts all over the board pontificating on Kelly and its Big Foot like myth qualities or outright besmirching it, And then 40 posts later you declare you don’t know shinola about it and don’t care. Just wow.Comment -
I cant believe you took the time to count the posts and mine, that is a little bit creepy.
I told him some form of kelly and that is what I claim "fixed profit" staking is.
I also wore out on trying to explain how you cant back test it, how it is impossible to use in pure form due to the not knowing your edge. How using an average edge was a horrible idea. how it can kill you with draw down and more.
Momma said so it must be so, I cant overcome that.
just for you
Kelly is useless in pure form, fractional full or whatever if you do not know your actual edge on that specific game.
kelly can kill you with draw down
kelly cannot be backtested because you would need to know your edge on each game to backtest it and unless you kept your past model lines and the bought line (which there never was) and the closed line, you could not get an accurate back test.
using your average edge over past years is about as dumb as you can get, very few people maintain the same edge and as many good long term pro bettors who are now washing windows will tell you, an edge can go away and never come back!
and I said I dont know anything because I was sick of discussing it and Bsims just likes to nitpick like you it seems, because you dont like my opinion on these things, cause I don't believe what momma said just cause momma said it.
Do some research there are some serious super experienced experts who say kelly is not for sports betting and it usually boils down to edge.
please if you could give me my post count in the last 26 days 12 hours and 9 minutes if you happen to have that infoComment -
Exactly.
He made himself look like an ass and anyone who agreed with him; but what does he care, he's just a troll. It was obvious to anyone w/ a clue that this guy was BS'ing the whole time. These guys get off on negative attention, it's the weirdest thing, I'd be embarrassed to post some of the shit he says yet he seems proud of it.
It's ok to not know stuff, that's why Forums and Mentors were invented. It's not ok to BS your way through a 4-page thread just because you like trolling.Comment -
it is why you need to track in dollars and not units
and if anyone knew how to bet going forward, thered be tons of millionaires off of sportsbettingComment -
Rudy the thing is these guys scream off the rooftops the smart things they heard from smart people but they are trying use something beyond the scope of the 99.99% of players
if someone has a fricken model that can predict better than the closing line, hell yeah full kelly and shoot even more probably but for the rest of the sane world that is a huge mistake and will break your ass for sure and quicker.
its like giving a new teen driver a NHRA Funny car for his 1st car. its the fastest the best but is it for him at this point?Comment -
you are preaching to the choir
go find out why justin7 wrote a book
go find out why monkeyfocker is pissed at life
hell, even go find out why ganchrow works/worked for heritage
people hit the lotto for big wins, but if you cheat numbers...your luck runs out REAL QUICK since banned at most easy sportsbooksComment -
and do you want to know the main point?
in poker, you need to change how you play according to the stakes, whether its 3betting, 4betting preflop...or doing w.e post flop
it changes in poker as the stakes raise to play more advanced people
in sports betting, when you find a winning combination...it should last forever since beating any stake is the same as beating high roller stakes
just think about that
you only need to have discipline and a winning strategy to beat the highest of stakes even if you are at $1 bets now
does this work? NO!Comment -
in sports betting it kinda does change
when someone modeling starts out they pound the 250 openers and get some real value but once they get past that bankroll point, they now are not just playing against the books model now they are competing against more models to get down when the line has sharpened up and wont have as much movement to create big margin gaps.
rookie beat up openers. no competition
semi pro openers and earlies. little competition
pro after first pitch last game of the night. tough as nails competitionComment -
i think justin7 is VERY smart
but theres a reason why he sold a book and told everyone he would "look into" their models
monkey is even worse...he probably took 2 years in collegeComment -
I dont even know who those people are and amazon self publishes anyone could write a book! and most of those books are just fiction anywayComment -
I am just waiting for the kelly munchers to come in here and answer my questions, pussies dont like the question so they just call me dumb and a troll, which both are probably true!Comment -
Just bet half your bankroll every time, you will never bust
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