Hi, I'm new here (hello all). I've been betting on Matchbook for about a month based on patterns I've discovered in historical NBA and NCAABB data. I'm doing well so far but wanted to calculate my z-score to see what the chance is that I've just been lucky.
I'm familiar with the standard z-score formula of (raw score - pop. mean) / std deviation but I'm not sure if there's a way to apply that to binary data (win or lose), instead of using a continuum such as calculating the average # of points I've beaten the spread by, and dividing by std dev to find my edge over the spread.
Does this make sense? Let's say I've won 58 out of 100 bets. How do I calculate the % chance that my system is better than 50%, 55%, or 60%?
Or, since I'm mainly concerned with a day-to-day equity curve (I use an amalgamation of several systems to hopefully smooth the ups & downs), does it make more sense just to perform a z-score analysis with daily P&L?
(I'm coming from a stock market background so the terminology here of measuring everything in units is foreign to me, I use ROI and $'s.) FWIW I'm trading at .5-.6 Kelly using a conservative win% estimate.
I couldn't find anything using the search so feel free to point me to a previous thread if it exists. Thanks.
Edit: To clarify/simplify, assume all bets are made at +100
I'm familiar with the standard z-score formula of (raw score - pop. mean) / std deviation but I'm not sure if there's a way to apply that to binary data (win or lose), instead of using a continuum such as calculating the average # of points I've beaten the spread by, and dividing by std dev to find my edge over the spread.
Does this make sense? Let's say I've won 58 out of 100 bets. How do I calculate the % chance that my system is better than 50%, 55%, or 60%?
Or, since I'm mainly concerned with a day-to-day equity curve (I use an amalgamation of several systems to hopefully smooth the ups & downs), does it make more sense just to perform a z-score analysis with daily P&L?
(I'm coming from a stock market background so the terminology here of measuring everything in units is foreign to me, I use ROI and $'s.) FWIW I'm trading at .5-.6 Kelly using a conservative win% estimate.
I couldn't find anything using the search so feel free to point me to a previous thread if it exists. Thanks.
Edit: To clarify/simplify, assume all bets are made at +100