[EmpireMaker]

The Guardians surprised a number of onlookers with their run to an AL Central title last season. Among the reasons for that success: a bullpen that was one of the league’s most effective. Cleveland relievers finished fifth in ERA (3.05), sixth in strikeout percentage (26.4%) and fourth in ground-ball rate (46.4%).
Some of that excellent rate production was a byproduct of a strong rotation that consistently worked deeper into games than most. Cleveland relievers finished just 26th in innings pitched. A reliable starting staff no doubt took some of the pressure off manager Terry Francona and the top late-game weapons at his disposal.
That’s not to take anything away from the coaching staff or the relievers overall, however. Cleveland had eight relievers who threw 35+ innings last season; seven of them finished with an ERA of 3.25 or better. Five allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings, with the bulk of that group consisting of generally lower-profile hurlers who were acquired without much fanfare.
That’s perhaps best personified by 27-year-old righty Trevor Stephan, who broke out with an All-Star caliber showing in his second big league season. The 6’5″ hurler pitched in 66 games and tallied 63 2/3 innings. He posted a 2.69 ERA while striking out an excellent 30.7% of opposing hitters with a solid 48.1% ground-ball rate. Stephan picked up swinging strikes on 16.2% of his total offerings, a top 25 rate among relievers with 30+ innings.
There was very little to nitpick in Stephan’s performance. He missed bats, kept the ball on the ground when he did surrender contact, and limited walks to a tiny 6.7% clip. Stephan overwhelmed right-handed opponents, surrendering just a .207/.263/.293 line in 153 plate appearances. Lefty batters hit .280 against him but without significant impact, reaching base at a .348 clip while slugging .380. Stephan mixes three pitches in a power arsenal, backing up a 96-97 MPH fastball with a wipeout splitter and a quality slider.

While that production didn’t come entirely out of nowhere, it was a huge development for a pitcher who could have found himself on the roster bubble not that long ago. Originally selected in the third round of the 2017 draft by the Yankees, the University of Arkansas product spent four years in the New York farm system but didn’t secure a 40-man roster spot. He’d posted fine but unexceptional numbers as a starting pitcher between High-A and Double-A in 2019. Like every other minor leaguer, he wasn’t able to log any game action in 2020.
The Yankees opted not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft during the 2020-21 offseason. Cleveland nabbed him with the 24th selection and kept him on the MLB roster the entire following year. Stephan had an inconsistent rookie year working mostly in low-leverage innings. He posted a 4.41 ERA through 63 1/3 frames, striking out an impressive 26.6% of opponents but surrendering far too many walks and home runs. That changed in 2022, a season in which Stephan dramatically increased the use of his split to great success.
Stephan now looks like a key-high leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase. He joins hard-throwing James Karinchak as the top righty Cleveland setup arms heading into 2023. Southpaw Sam Hentges — a former fourth-round pick who had a breakout ’22 season of his own — would have a key role if healthy, though he’s battling a shoulder issue with an uncertain recovery timetable.
Controllable through 2026 and not eligible for arbitration until next offseason, Stephan would be an incredibly valuable piece for the foreseeable future if he’s able to replicate most of last year’s success. He already looks like one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, posting the caliber of season rarely seen from players available via that process. The 2020 Rule 5 draft generally turned out far better than most, with the biggest successes coming at the Yankees’ expense. In addition to Stephan, New York lost right-hander Garrett Whitlock to their archrivals in Boston that year.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Cross, will last night be the highlight of the season?

Congrats.. that was pretty lame from my viewpoint though haha

[batt33]

March madness only means one thing... opening day is close!

[EmpireMaker]

The start of spring training always brings plenty of reports of players experiencing ’tightness’ or ’discomfort’, and while many of those wind up being rather minor, the Rangers in particular are dealing with plenty of seemingly minor ailments this spring, as Levi Weaver of The Athletic reports.
Star winter signing Jacob deGrom was experiencing left-side tightness early in camp, but is scheduled to now throw his first live bullpen session on Wednesday, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Fellow off-season recruit Nathan Eovaldi is also experiencing some left-side tightness, and is taking a few days off. Jon Gray was a late scratch from Friday’s spring game with back tightness, while Jake Odorizzi is dealing with arm fatigue and is a bit behind in his schedule. It doesn’t stop there, as Jose LeClerc and Owen White are both feeling neck tightness.
There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of concern within the Rangers, and instead it seems the team is just being extra cautious so early in the spring. “When we started spring, in addressing the pitchers especially, we said, ‘Hey, in the early part here, let us know. Anything going on, we don’t want any major setbacks. We can back off at this time.’ Spring training can be pretty long, so in the early part, you’re going to be a little bit more cautious,” manager Bruce Bochy said Friday.
Here’s some more bits and pieces from around baseball:

• Austin Slater had an MRI on his elbow but it came back clear, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Giants announced during the week that Slater would rest for a week with elbow neuritis. The news that the MRI is clear is certainly a positive one for Slater, and it seems it won’t be long before he’s able to make his spring debut for the team. Slater hit .242/.337/.392 with seven home runs across 259 plate appearances for San Francisco last season, and looks set to serve as a bench bat for the Giants with Joc Pederson, Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski to get the bulk of the outfield reps.
• The Marlins are giving youngster Jordan Groshans time at first base this spring, as Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports. Groshans typically handled the other infield spots coming up through the minors, and spent just 40 previous innings at first. Groshans is on the fringes of cracking Miami’s opening day roster, but if he can show he can handle first adequately it would certainly provide a boost to his chances. A first round pick by the Blue Jays in 2018, Groshans came over to the Marlins in the Anthony Bass deal last year. He got a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues, hitting .262/.308/.311 across 65 plate appearances. With Garrett Cooper, Joey Wendle, Luis Arraez and Jean Segura fairly well locked in as Miami’s infield starters, there’s no obvious path to a starting job there but the Marlins bench is a lot less certain, providing Groshans with a solid chance to stick on the active roster to begin the season.
• Speaking of positional changes, the Yankees are planning to give Oswaldo Cabrera some time in center field this spring, Aaron Boone told the YES Network’s broadcast during today’s game against the Rays. Cabrera impressed during his rookie year, posting a respectable .247/.312/.429 line with six home runs across 171 plate appearances. Yet it was his defense that really stood out, as Cabrera, an infielder for almost all of his career, took to the outfield extremely well, earning nine Defensive Runs Saved for his work on the grass. That’s put him firmly in the race with Aaron Hicks, Estevan Florial and Rafael Ortega to be the Yankees’ opening day left fielder. It does seem more likely he winds up in a utility role though, covering the infield, corner outfield spots, and now, perhaps, center field.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

March madness only means one thing... opening day is close!

Yes indeed, about a month until the regular season!

[EmpireMaker]

The Mets informed reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday, that left-hander José Quintana has a “small stress fracture” in his fifth rib on his left side. He left his spring outing yesterday with side tightness and later announced that he was withdrawing from the World Baseball Classic. He is leaving camp and headed to New York for further imaging. The club does not have a timeline on his recovery yet.
Quintana, 34, was pencilled in to be a key piece of the Mets’ rotation this year after signing a two-year, $26MM deal in the offseason. He had a rough couple of seasons in 2020 and 2021 but bounced back nicely last year with the Pirates and Cardinals. He tossed 165 2/3 innings between the two clubs with a 2.93 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate. The Mets signed him to that two-year pact and hoped to have him in their rotation alongside Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and Carlos Carrasco.
At this point, it’s still unclear what the next steps will be, but it seems like Quintana will at least be delayed. There’s just over three weeks until Opening Day at this point. Even if he’s able to return to the mound in short order, he would still need some time to build up his pitch count.
It was around this time last year that Red Sox lefty Chris Sale was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his rib, which prevented him from making his season debut until July. That’s not to say Quintana is facing the same absence, as all injuries are unique and players respond to them differently. However, it does illustrate that the diagnosis has the chance to be significant.
We don’t know what kind of absence Quintana ultimately will require, but the Mets have depth options on their roster if Quintana does eventually need to miss some of the regular season. Joey Lucchesi was recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2022 and missed all of the MLB season. He began a rehab assignment in August of last year and pitched 12 2/3 minor league innings before the winter arrived. Back in 2019, he made 30 starts for the Padres and posted a 4.18 ERA. Tylor Megill made nine starts and six relief appearances for the club last year, posting a combined 5.13 ERA. David Peterson had a 3.83 ERA across 19 starts and nine relief appearances last year and would perhaps be the first one called up to take a rotation job. He recently had his own injury scare when a comebacker hit him in the foot, though it seems he escaped with just a contusion and is day-to-day. All three of Lucchesi, Megill and Peterson have options, allowing them to be stretched out in the minors whenever their services are not required by the big league club.

[EmpireMaker]

I believe opening day is March 30

[JAKEPEAVY21]

WBC kicks off tonight, should be entertaining to see some real baseball games.

[EmpireMaker]

Braves lefty Kolby Allard has been shut down after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 oblique strain, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). He’ll begin the season on the injured list.
There’s no specific timetable for Allard to return just yet, but even Grade 1 strains can lead to a month-long absence at times. Every injury is different, of course, but for some recent context, Rays righty Tyler Glasnow was diagnosed with a Grade 2 oblique strain earlier this month and received a timetable of six to eight weeks.
Allard wasn’t expected to open the season in the Atlanta rotation, but he’s on the 40-man roster and has been sharp in limited spring innings thus far, allowing a run on three hits and a walk with four strikeouts through five innings.
The 25-year-old Allard was the No. 14 overall pick by the Braves back in 2015 but was traded to the Rangers in a 2019 deadline swap that brought righty Chris Martin to Atlanta. The Braves reacquired him in the offseason trade that sent veteran right-hander Jake Odorizzi back to Texas (with Atlanta covering $10MM of Odorizzi’s $12.5MM salary). Allard has a career 3.73 ERA in 316 1/3 innings of Triple-A ball, but he’s been hit hard in parts of five MLB seasons, recording a 6.07 ERA in 232 2/3 frames.
The Braves’ rotation again looks quite strong, led by Cy Young runner-up Max Fried. He’s followed by Charlie Morton, Kyle Wright and Rookie of the Year runner-up Spencer Strider. Candidates for the fifth spot include righties Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder and Mike Soroka. Two of those three will likely join Allard (once healthy) in serving as rotation depth with Triple-A Gwinnett.

[EmpireMaker]

The Nationals are in agreement with 24-year-old backstop Keibert Ruiz on an eight-year contract extension that guarantees $50MM, as first reported by Wow Deportes (Twitter link). Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter link) reports that the contract also contains two club options. The Nationals are expected to formally announce the deal tomorrow, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Ruiz is an Octagon client.
It’s a long-term commitment from the rebuilding club to a player they consider the franchise catcher. Washington acquired the switch-hitting Ruiz at the 2021 trade deadline as part of the blockbuster that sent Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the Dodgers. Ruiz and starter Josiah Gray headlined a four-player return. Both were upper level prospects and Ruiz would get a look as Washington’s primary backstop by the end of the ’21 campaign.
After playing in 23 games down the stretch, Ruiz got the nod as the Opening Day catcher last season. He played in 112 games and tallied 433 plate appearances, though his season was cut short when he had to be hospitalized after he was hit in the groin area by a foul ball. Before that unfortunate conclusion, Ruiz hit .251/.313/.360 in his first full season at the big league level. That offense was a little better than that of the average catcher, with the league receiving a .228/.295/.368 line from the position.
Ruiz didn’t hit for a ton of power, only connecting on seven home runs. He drew walks in a modest 6.9% of his trips to the dish. Ruiz demonstrated excellent pure contact skills, though, striking out in fewer than 12% of his plate appearances while putting the bat on the ball with 86.3% of his swings. Only Blue Jays star Alejandro Kirk showed comparable contact skills at the position.
Putting the ball in play has been Ruiz’s calling card throughout his professional career. The Venezuela native appeared among top prospect lists for a few seasons during his time in the Los Angeles farm system. Evaluators have long lauded his hit tool, though reviews on his power upside and defensive acumen were more middling.

According to public metrics, Ruiz’s defensive performance as a rookie was mixed. Statcast pegged him as a slightly below-average pitch framer. He rated positively for his ability to keep the ball in front of him, though. Statcast estimated he blocked five more pitches than average over the course of 865 innings. His four passed balls were manageable. He did a solid job controlling the running game, throwing out 28.2% of attempted basestealers (more than three percentage higher than the league mark).
While Ruiz isn’t a finished product, his rookie season more or less fell in line with his longstanding prospect profile. He proved his elite contact skills can translate against big league pitching and adequately managed things defensively. The Nats are surely hopeful he’ll tap into a little more extra-base impact over time. He’d connected on 21 home runs in 72 Triple-A contests in 2021, and while that was surely aided by a favorable offensive environment, it at least hints at double-digit homer potential for Ruiz at the MLB level.
Ruiz had between one and two years of service time. He wouldn’t have been eligible for arbitration until after the 2024 campaign and wasn’t headed to free agency until the 2027-28 offseason. This deal forecloses any chance he’ll go through arbitration and buys out at least three free agent years. If the club were to exercise both options, they’d extend their window of control by five seasons on a deal that could reach a decade in length.
It’s technically the third-largest guarantee for a player in that service bracket. Ke’Bryan Hayes holds the official record with last spring’s eight-year, $70MM extension with the Pirates. Andrelton Simmons secured $58MM over seven seasons on a 2014 extension with the Braves. Michael Harris signed an eight-year, $72MM deal with Atlanta last summer that, for all intents and purposes, also fits into the service group. Harris technically had less than a year of service at the time of his deal, though he was all but certain to finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting and secure a full service year by the time he signed in August.
Ruiz’s guarantee checks in a fair bit south of the Hayes and Harris contracts, though one could argue the latter two players were safer bets. Harris and Hayes are excellent defenders and had produced a little more offensively than Ruiz has to date, even if each comes with some questions about their overall impact potential at the plate. Early-career extensions for catchers haven’t been especially common; Ruiz becomes the first backstop with less than three years of service to sign an extension since Roberto Pérez in April 2017.
In exchange for upfront security, Ruiz concedes some long-term earning potential. That’s the case in every early-career extension of this ilk, though the potential ten-year term makes it particularly true in this instance. If Washington exercises both options, Ruiz wouldn’t get to free agency until leading into his age-34 campaign. Had he proceeded year-by-year through arbitration, he’d have first qualified for free agency at age 29.
Of course, doing so would’ve entailed the risk of injuries or underperformance derailing his career. Ruiz wasn’t a high-profile amateur signee, only signing for $140K back in 2014. It’s easy to understand the appeal of averting risk and securing the first life-changing payday of his career.
The Nationals, meanwhile, lock in a core player whose aging curve aligns with when the club should be more equipped to contend. They’re in for another non-competitive season in 2023 and look hard-pressed to compete by next year either. Ruiz is now locked in for a few years into the 2030’s, though, and the club obviously anticipates having plenty of chances to compete for a playoff spot in the medium to long-term future.
The contract’s financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported. The deal has an average annual value of $6.25MM that’ll count evenly against the luxury tax ledger for its duration. That’s not a concern in the short term; Washington’s projected 2023 payroll is more than $100MM south of this year’s threshold. The organization has paid the CBT in years past, however, so it’s not out of the question they’ll again push towards that threshold a few years down the line if the team’s competitive window comes clearer into view. The ongoing uncertainty about the Lerner family’s ownership plans clouds the picture, though ownership is clearly at least willing to sign off on future-oriented moves of this nature.
Washington will continue to audition younger players to hopefully join Ruiz in the core over the next couple seasons. Gray, shortstop CJ Abrams, left-hander MacKenzie Gore and yet-to-debut prospects like James Wood and Robert Hassell have joined the organization in deadline blockbusters. Right-hander Cade Cavalli is a former first-round pick and a highly-regarded pitching prospect. Not everyone in that group will find success, of course, but there’s now no shortage of intriguing players who will try to establish themselves at Nationals Park over the coming seasons.

[jrgum3]

I believe opening day is March 30

Yep the countdown is on to Opening Day. Plenty of games that day too not just an appetizer for the real thing unlike past years.

[jrgum3]

Surprised nobody in here mentioned Edwin Diaz is out for the year. Naturally I have him in a fantasy league slow draft that I did early so that sucks but in all seriousness that's a huge blow to the Mets and I'm sure has a lot of Mets fans pissed right now.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Surprised nobody in here mentioned Edwin Diaz is out for the year. Naturally I have him in a fantasy league slow draft that I did early so that sucks but in all seriousness that's a huge blow to the Mets and I'm sure has a lot of Mets fans pissed right now.

Karma for Showalter and the Mets for the Musgrove nonsense?

I will never shed a tear for Showalter or the Mets after that garbage last year.

[jrgum3]

Karma for Showalter and the Mets for the Musgrove nonsense?

I will never shed a tear for Showalter or the Mets after that garbage last year.

I'm not shedding any tears but it sucks to lose an important part of your team for the season before the season starts. I'd be pissed if this happened to a Giant but at the same time I get the need for the World Baseball Classic and why the players all take it seriously.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I'm not shedding any tears but it sucks to lose an important part of your team for the season before the season starts. I'd be pissed if this happened to a Giant but at the same time I get the need for the World Baseball Classic and why the players all take it seriously.

Sucks for them....don't cry cheating when getting your ass kicked next time, Buck

[boscokid]

12 team H2H keeper league - keep 6 at previous round from last year OR using ADP for previously kept & 2022 undrafted players. League does require using at least one RP so Clase pretty much a "must keep"

Probably keeping these players (draft pick cost in parenthesis):

Cole (12), Bichette (36), Clase (85), O Cruz (229), Adolis Garcia (252)

Would you prefer Snell (157) or Sale (204) as they are both keeper eligible for about 72 picks after their ADP. If I want to keep both then need to bounce somebody from the gang of 5 above.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

12 team H2H keeper league - keep 6 at previous round from last year OR using ADP for previously kept & 2022 undrafted players. League does require using at least one RP so Clase pretty much a "must keep"

Probably keeping these players (draft pick cost in parenthesis):

Cole (12), Bichette (36), Clase (85), O Cruz (229), Adolis Garcia (252)

Would you prefer Snell (157) or Sale (204) as they are both keeper eligible for about 72 picks after their ADP. If I want to keep both then need to bounce somebody from the gang of 5 above.

Probably Snell because he is and has been healthy....not sure what to expect from Sale after being injured most of the past few years.

[jrgum3]

Probably Snell because he is and has been healthy....not sure what to expect from Sale after being injured most of the past few years.

Yeah I think that you have to roll with the healthier of the two pitchers. Of course Sale could regain his dominant form but the question is and always will be will he stay healthy so I'd probably keep Snell.

[EmpireMaker]

The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years, taking their payroll to levels it’s never reached before. It finally paid off in 2022, as the club made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They doubled down on that aggression this winter, signing multiple free agents and locking up a couple of players with notable extensions.
Major League Signings

• SS Xander Bogaerts: eleven years, $280MM
• RHP Robert Suarez: five years, $46MM, Suarez can opt out after 2025
• RHP Nick Martinez: three years, $26MM (Padres have two-year, $32MM option after season; if declined, Martinez has a two-year, $16MM player option)
• RHP Michael Wacha: four years, $26MM (Padres have two-year, $32MM option after season; if declined, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and $6MM player options in 2025-26)
• RHP Seth Lugo: two years, $15MM, Lugo can opt out after 2023
• IF/OF Matt Carpenter: two years, $12MM, Carpenter can opt out after 2023
• DH Nelson Cruz: one year, $1MM
• OF Adam Engel: one year, $1MM
• RHP Brent Honeywell Jr.: one year split deal, $725K in majors, $200K in minors

2022 spending: $68.7MM
Total spending: $407.2MM
Option Decisions

• RHP Robert Suarez opted out of one year and $5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout, later re-signed
• OF Jurickson Profar opted out of one year and $7.5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout
• Club declined $20MM option on OF Wil Myers in favor of $1MM buyout
• RHP Nick Martinez opted out of three years and $18MM remaining on contract for $1.5MM buyout, later re-signed

Trades And Claims

• Claimed RHP Sean Poppen from Diamondbacks, later outrighted off 40-man roster
• Selected LHP Jose Lopez from Rays in Rule 5 draft

Extensions

• 3B Manny Machado: five years, $170MM (on top of preexisting six years, $180MM)
• RHP Yu Darvish: five years, $90MM

Notable Minor League Signings

• David Dahl, Preston Tucker, Drew Carlton, Aaron Brooks, Eric Hanhold, Anderson Espinoza, Pedro Severino, Tim Lopes, Max Schrock, Domingo Tapia, Wilmer Font, Craig Stammen, Alfonso Rivas, Ángel Sánchez, Julio Teheran, Rangel Ravelo, Cole Hamels, Rougned Odor

Notable Losses

• Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger, Josh Bell, Brandon Drury, Pierce Johnson, Jurickson Profar (still a free agent), Wil Myers, Jorge Alfaro

Going into the 2018 season, the Padres decided it was time for change. It had been over a decade since their last trip to the postseason and they had never been huge players in free agency. They started to flip that narrative by signing first baseman Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144MM contract. That deal didn’t end up going well, but it nonetheless sent the message that the club meant business. That was followed up with the club signing Manny Machado and extending Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as trading for players like Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell.
Despite all those bold moves, the club still found ways to struggle. Though they qualified for the postseason in the expanded field of the shortened 2020 campaign, they finished below .500 in each 162-game season from 2011 to 2021. Things finally clicked in 2022, with the Padres stealing all the headlines at the trade deadline by acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Brandon Drury. It resulted in the club finishing 89-73 and grabbing a Wild Card spot. They knocked off heavyweight teams like the Mets and the Dodgers before ultimately falling to the Phillies in the NLCS.
Though they finally broke through and had the success that long eluded them, the club quickly made it clear that they had little interest in taking their foot off the gas as they continue their pursuit of a World Series title. The first order of business was retaining a few in-house players. Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez each opted out of their respective contracts to become free agents. Within a few days, they were already back in the fold on eight-figure guarantees. Suarez was excellent in 2022, but it was his first in the majors at the age of 31 after many years in Japan. It was a somewhat similar situation for Martinez, who was also 31 and had been in Japan for three years following a rough MLB stint from 2014-17. The fact that the club made such large guarantees to relatively unproven pitchers signaled that they would have few financial obstacles in their path this winter.
From there, the Friars set their sights on a big splash. They reportedly offered both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge larger guarantees than they eventually accepted from the Phillies and Yankees, respectively. That’s not to say that either player turned up their nose at a chance of joining the Padres, as Turner seemingly preferred to be on the East Coast while Judge preferred to remain a Yankee for life.
After missing on two big swings, the club finally connected on the star signing they sought with Xander Bogaerts. The deal shattered most predictions, including ours. MLBTR pegged Bogaerts for a seven-year, $189MM deal, but he ended up soaring past that both in terms of the years and the guarantee. It was also surprising to see the Padres pursue a shortstop, as that didn’t seem to be their primary need. Ha-Seong Kim had a fine season replacing Fernando Tatis Jr., who missed all of 2022 due to injuries and an 80-game PED suspension. Tatis still has 20 games left on that but should be back in action early in 2023. The fact that the club initially set its sights on Judge perhaps indicates there was a chance Tatis could stick at short, but the acquisition of Bogaerts also showed they weren’t committed to letting him retake his spot there.
With Bogaerts now set to take over at the club’s everyday shortstop, Kim will get pushed over to second, nudging Jake Cronenworth to first. That will leave Tatis in the outfield, alongside Soto and Trent Grisham. That reduced the need for a big splash in the outfield, but the club did bolster their options on the grass by signing Matt Carpenter and Adam Engel. The latter is a glove-first option that was non-tendered by the White Sox and should make for a solid fourth outfielder. The former was awful from 2019 to 2021 but rebounded tremendously last year. He re-emerged with the Yankees and was one of the best hitters on the planet for a stretch before a foot fracture slowed him down. He finished the year with 15 home runs in just 47 games and a batting line of .305/.412/.727, wRC+ of 217. He played the four corner positions last year and could do so again, though the eventual return of Tatis should diminish the need for him to take any outfield reps.
All of this shuffling is necessary to get Bogaerts into the shortstop position and, more importantly, his bat into the lineup. Over the past five seasons, Bogaerts has hit 105 home runs and slashed .300/.373/.507 for a wRC+ of 134. That latter number places him in the top 20 among all qualified hitters in the league. He’s been remarkably consistent, keeping that figure between 129 and 141 in each of those five campaigns. His defense has been a little less consistent, but he did get positive grades from all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average last year. The Padres made a significant investment to get a deal done, but there’s every reason to expect they got a premier player for it.
With Bogaerts in hand, the next stage of the offseason continued to be busy, though at a lesser tier of free agency. Though they had retained Martinez, the rotation was still in need of bolstering with the departures of Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger. Offseason rumors suggested that clubs were interested in Seth Lugo as a starter, despite the fact that he’s been pitching out of the Mets’ bullpen for the past few years. The Padres decided to be the team to give Lugo that shot, signing him in mid-December. Lugo has been a fine reliever but is generally pretty unproven in the rotation. The last time he made more than seven starts in a season was back in 2017.
After that Lugo deal, the Padres had a front-loaded rotation. It was headlined by three great hurlers in Musgrove, Darvish and Snell, but they were followed by two unestablished starters in Lugo and Martinez. They decided to add some security as the offseason went along, eventually adding Michael Wacha, who posted a solid 3.32 ERA last year. He’s no sure thing either, as recurring shoulder issues have prevented him from tossing 130 innings in a season since 2017. But the Friars also added a few strands to the safety net by bringing in Brent Honeywell Jr., Wilmer Font, Cole Hamels and Julio Teheran. Those extra options will likely be important all season long, even in the beginning, as Musgrove recently fractured a toe and seems likely to miss a couple of starts.
The lineup was also in a good place, with Bogaerts joining Soto and Machado as the key threats. The Padres would go on to add some complementary pieces in Carpenter, Engel and then Nelson Cruz. It’s been a rough stretch for Cruz lately, as he struggled with the Rays at the end of 2021 and then hit just .234/.313/.337 for the Nats last year. Given that he’s now 42 years old, it would be fair to wonder if his age was finally catching up with him. However, Cruz underwent eye surgery in the offseason, telling reporters that some inflammation has been blocking his vision over the past year and a half. Perhaps he can bounce back, perhaps not, but the Padres only put down $1MM to find out. If the gamble pays off, it will add yet another potent bat into the mix.
With the calendar showing February and the roster looking fairly set, the focus shifted to long-term concerns. The rotation had some uncertainty over the horizon, as both Darvish and Snell were slated for free agency after 2023. Lugo, Wacha and Martinez also aren’t guaranteed to be back next season, as all three of them either have options or opt-outs that could potentially result in them returning to free agency. That left Musgrove as the only starter locked in for 2024, so the Padres decided to get a bit more clarity by extending Darvish. The deal was surprising in that it came out of nowhere, but also in its length. Darvish is already 36 and his new deal will run past his 42nd birthday. It seems likely that this is a tactic to reduce the club’s competitive balance tax calculation.
We’ll circle back to that CBT conversation in a moment, but the Padres weren’t done with the extensions just yet. Manny Machado still had six years remaining on his ten-year deal, but he had an opt-out opportunity coming up at the end of 2023. Given that he had an MVP-caliber season last year and the new Collective Bargaining Agreement had seemingly improved the free agent market for players, Machado would have been justified in heading back to the open market. He was quite open about his intent to do, but the Padres decided they didn’t want to see that happen and locked him in with a new 11-year, $350MM deal. Since Machado already had six years and $180MM in hand, this tacked on five years and $170MM to prevent him from departing.
This new era of aggressive spending for the Padres has resulted in the club paying the luxury tax in each of the past two years. Their continued spending this year will result in them paying for a third straight season and that will come with elevated tax rates. A third-time payor faces a 50% tax for any spending over the lowest threshold, which is $233MM this year. That jumps to 62% over the $253MM tier and 95% over the $273MM tier. It was reported about a month ago that the Padres were narrowly below that third tier, but that was before the Machado extension came down. His new deal bumped his AAV from $30MM to $31.81MM, perhaps nudging them over that line. If they can manage to get back under the $273MM figure, they’ll avoid the unwelcome penalty of having their top pick in the 2024 draft pushed back 10 spots.
Regardless of which side of that threshold the Padres ultimately fall, it seems the lengthy deals are an attempt to at least moderately mitigate their CBT hits, for this year and the future. As mentioned, the Darvish extension will run past his 42nd birthday, while Bogaerts and Machado will each turn 41 in the final seasons of their respective deals. The annual values on the Bogaerts and Darvish deals, in particular, are lower than the per-year market rate for players of this caliber. Time will tell whether subsequent extensions might follow; the team is reportedly interested in extending both Soto and Hader.
Ultimately, these are all footnotes to the larger story of owner Peter Seidler deciding that he didn’t want the Padres to be a small-market team anymore. The Friars are currently third in the league in terms of both pure payroll and CBT, with only the two New York clubs ahead of them. It’s already resulted in one trip to the NLCS, and the hope is for even more to come. When asked if his spending was sustainable, Seidler told Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he preferred a different question. “Do I believe our parade is going to be on land or on water or on boat?”

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Nola and Soto got hurt the other day...Soto pulled a muscle and Nola got hit square on the nose with a pitch and it was a scary scene. My guess is that it is broken but now the Padres are scrambling for catching depth.

[EmpireMaker]

I'm not fond of the Padres pitching staff, what are your thoughts Jake ?

[EmpireMaker]

The A’s entered camp with a host of pitchers competing for what appeared to be two rotation spots. Another opened during Spring Training, as righty Paul Blackburn tore a fingernail and will start the year on the injured list. That left Drew Rucinski and Shintaro Fujinami as the apparent top two. For different reasons, there are questions about the workload both hurlers can shoulder.
Rucinski won’t make his next scheduled Spring Training start because of left hamstring tightness, manager Mark Kotsay said this afternoon (relayed by Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). His availability for Opening Day is now uncertain. Signed to a $3MM free agent deal after four seasons with the NC Dinos in the Korea Baseball Organization, Rucinski has pitched three times this spring. The right-hander has allowed eight runs with a 7:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 10 1/3 innings.
Fujinami isn’t dealing with any health concerns. The A’s are planning to be cautious with his workload as he makes the jump from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, however. Starters in Japan typically only throw once per week, so a five-day rotation presents an adjustment for hurlers coming over from NPB. Kotsay indicated this week that Oakland would limit Fujinami to starts every sixth or seventh day early in the season to avoid overworking him (link via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle).
“We feel strongly about keeping him in that routine,” Kotsay told reporters. “There is a lot of change going on already for Fuji, so we want to try to at least keep something as consistent as possible and that’s his routines.” The 6’6″ right-hander signed for $3.25MM this offseason, with the A’s rolling the dice on a high-octane arsenal despite an inconsistent strike-throwing track record in Japan.
Control woes kept Fujinami from holding a permanent rotation spot with the Hanshin Tigers over the past few seasons. He’d bounced between the Tigers and their minor league affiliate and between the starting staff and the bullpen. Altogether, Fujinami tallied 107 1/3 innings last season. That was the first time he’d topped the century mark since 2018, so it’s not surprising the A’s want to keep an eye on his workload.
Oakland has maintained they’re committed to Fujinami as a starting pitcher. It’s an upside play that could make him an intriguing trade candidate if he establishes himself closer to the summer deadline. Fujinami has been erratic this spring, striking out 17 but issuing 13 walks in 12 2/3 frames over three outings.
With only one pitcher now locked into the season-opening rotation and coming with workload concerns of his own, Oakland will obviously have to plug a number of vacancies. As Kawahara writes in a separate piece, righty James Kaprielian seems on track to grab a rotation job. While he’d been delayed in camp recovering fromDecember shoulder surgery, he built up to five innings in today’s exhibition start against the Cubs. The former Yankee first-rounder started 26 games and threw 134 innings last year, working to a 4.23 ERA despite below-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates.
A number of recent trade acquisitions are among those battling for rotation spots alongside Fujinami, Kaprielian and hopefully Rucinski. Ken Waldichuk and JP Sears, both acquired from the Yankees in last summer’s Frankie Montas deal, could have the inside track on jobs after debuting last season. Lefty Kyle Muller, brought in from Atlanta this winter in the Sean Murphy package, remains in camp.
So does righty Adam Oller, who came over from the Mets in the Chris Bassitt trade a year ago. Oller started 14 of 19 MLB appearances as a rookie but was hit hard, surrendering more than six earned runs per nine innings. Kawahara suggests the righty could be ticketed for long relief instead of the rotation. The 28-year-old told reporters he was open to whatever role the club preferred. “I knew going into this year (a swing role) was going to be a possibility,” Oller said (via Kawahara). “I spoke to Kotsay … and I told him straight up, ‘I don’t care.’ Obviously, everybody wants to be a starter, but at the end of the day, I just want to be on the team and do what I can to help the team win.“

[EmpireMaker]

March 22: Brown today informed reporters, including Rome, that Altuve’s surgery has now taken place. The estimated timeline is two months before Altuve can resume baseball activities.
March 19: Astros general manager Dana Brown informed reporters, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, that second baseman Jose Altuve has a fractured right thumb and will undergo surgery in the “coming days.” There is no timetable for his return. Altuve left last night’s game in the World Baseball Classic after being hit on the hand by a pitch. Marly Rivera of ESPN had previously relayed that Altuve had indeed suffered a fracture, as feared.
The news obviously comes as a big blow to the defending World Series champions, as Altuve has been a cornerstone of the team for years. Not only has he been reliable in his excellent performance, but he’s also never really dealt with a significant injury until now. Over the past ten full seasons, going back to 2012, Altuve has never played fewer than 124 games in an individual campaign. That low tally came in 2019, when a hamstring strain sent him to the injured list for just over a month. Apart from that, all his trips to the IL have been fairly minor, meaning he is now likely facing the most lengthy absence of his career. Though the club hasn’t provided a timetable for Altuve’s return, there’s no doubt that he’s facing a significant absence. Bryce Harper suffered a thumb fracture last year and ended up missing two months of the season. Every injury and recovery is different, but it would be reasonable to expect a similar path ahead for the Astros second baseman.
Altuve, 33 in May, has been one of the better players in the league in that time but is coming off one of his best seasons to date. He hit 28 home runs, stole 18 bases and walked in a career-high 10.9% of his trips to the plate. His .300/.387/.533 batting line resulted in a 164 wRC+, a career-high figure that indicated he was 64% better than the league average hitter. Defensive metrics were split on the value of his glovework, but he was still ranked as being worth 6.6 wins above replacement by FanGraphs, his highest tally in that department since the infamous sign-stealing season of 2017.
The exact date of his return will depend upon how long it takes to heal and then how much time he needs to get back into game shape after his layoff, but it seems like it will be a decent chunk of the schedule either way. While Altuve figures to be back for the latter months of the season, the club will have to figure out how to man the keystone for the time being. Mauricio Dubón, David Hensley and Rylan Bannon are the options on the 40-man roster, while Dixon Machado is in camp as a non-roster invitee.
Dubón is the most experienced of the bunch, having played in 262 games at the big league level. He’s capable of playing each outfield position and the three infield spots to the left of first base, and is generally considered to be a good defender anywhere he’s placed. The problem is on offense, as he’s hit just .244/.287/.366 in his career for a wRC+ of 77. It’s a fairly similar story for Machado, who is considered solid with the glove at shortstop, second or third base, but has hit just .226/.285/.292 in the majors for a wRC+ of 56. He’s not currently on the 40-man and won’t be optionable if he’s selected at some point. Hensley had a great debut last year, but in a tiny sample of just 16 games. He was also good in Triple-A, however, hitting .298/.420/.478 over 104 games last year. Bannon has just five MLB games under his belt but has bounced around the waiver wire in the past year due to strong work in the minors.
That group gives the Astros plenty of options but none of them will be expected to replace the production of Altuve. It’s also possible that the club could look outside the organization for some help, but there are challenges to doing that at this time of year. The free agent market has been largely picked over, leaving veteran journeymen like Andrelton Simmons and Jonathan Villar as some of the best options available. Trades are also difficult to line up at this time of year, with most teams generally feeling settled with their rosters as Opening Day approaches. Perhaps the Yankees would be willing to deal Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Gleyber Torres with youngsters like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza pushing for more playing time, but they might also prefer to hang onto those players just in case the younger guys struggle in their first extended tastes of major league action. As Spring Training winds down, teams will make their final cuts and a few more players will shake loose, though they might not be huge difference makers relative to the in-house options in Houston.
However the club decides to play things, they will no doubt be in a lesser position at second base for a while. They will surely still be in good shape overall, with a lineup of great hitters like Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, José Abreu and Yordan Alvarez. They have incredibly made it to the ALCS in each of the past six years, going to the World Series in four of those seasons and winning it twice. They seem poised to be strong yet again, but they will now be challenged by a couple of notable absences in the early going, as Lance McCullers Jr. will open the season on the injured list as well.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I'm not fond of the Padres pitching staff, what are your thoughts Jake ?

Should be ok so long as Darvish, Musgrove and Snell stay healthy.

[EmpireMaker]

I've always been a fan of Darvish, he is a hard knocker and most likely will grind out a lot of innings, they are saying he still needs to build up some but I doubt it will take too long. If Musgrove stays healthy he's a good number 2 but he has to finish recovering from the fractured toe just to get started, seems like Snell has taken a long time to get up speed over the last 2 or 3 years, Snell has been not very good in the first half of those seasons, he has talent but injuries and possibly not working hard enough during the off season makes him very shaky in my book. For a fourth and fifth starter it seems to me like it will be a struggle. Wacha has been bad far more than he has been good over the course of his career IMO. Nick Martinez is OK but nothing special IMO.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I've always been a fan of Darvish, he is a hard knocker and most likely will grind out a lot of innings, they are saying he still needs to build up some but I doubt it will take too long. If Musgrove stays healthy he's a good number 2 but he has to finish recovering from the fractured toe just to get started, seems like Snell has taken a long time to get up speed over the last 2 or 3 years, Snell has been not very good in the first half of those seasons, he has talent but injuries and possibly not working hard enough during the off season makes him very shaky in my book. For a fourth and fifth starter it seems to me like it will be a struggle. Wacha has been bad far more than he has been good over the course of his career IMO. Nick Martinez is OK but nothing special IMO.

Not too concerned about Darvish or Musgrove, both should be fine in a few weeks. Snell always starts slow but they are trying to ramp him up early this year so he is firing on all cylinders at the beginning of the season rather than the all star break, we will see how that goes.

The rest of the starters are decent with pretty good upside. Martinez was a Godsend as a jack of all trades last year, we will see how he takes to starting role but I like him better as a high leverage relief option.

Between Lugo, Groome, Martinez and Wacha they should be able to get some solid outings from them and it helps that the offense should put up a lot of runs.

[Cross]

Darvish is a boss, miss him.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I'm not fond of the Padres pitching staff, what are your thoughts Jake ?

If Darvish, Musgrove or Snell get hurt for a prolonged period of time, I'd be worried.

The bullpen already has a lot of key injuries(Pomeranz, Suarez, Morejon) so am already worried about that.

[EmpireMaker]

If Darvish, Musgrove or Snell get hurt for a prolonged period of time, I'd be worried.

The bullpen already has a lot of key injuries(Pomeranz, Suarez, Morejon) so am already worried about that.

A good offense will certainly help the situation. For the Padres sake, I hope Suarez can recover quickly and Hader can regain his Milwaukee form. Last year with SD was a rough year for Hader his ERA and WHIP both skyrocketed. I have always like Hader though. Garcia seems to be having some control issues this spring giving up loads of BB's. They are talking about mid-April for Musgrove, I personally think it will be the end of April, I could be wrong.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

A good offense will certainly help the situation. For the Padres sake, I hope Suarez can recover quickly and Hader can regain his Milwaukee form. Last year with SD was a rough year for Hader his ERA and WHIP both skyrocketed. I have always like Hader though. Garcia seems to be having some control issues this spring giving up loads of BB's. They are talking about mid-April for Musgrove, I personally think it will be the end of April, I could be wrong.

Not worried about Hader, he had a few outings last year where he got shelled and gave up the majority of runs on the season. It was a mechanical issue that was shored up by the playoffs and he was his old self by the post season. I expect him to be very good this year.

[EmpireMaker]

Not worried about Hader, he had a few outings last year where he got shelled and gave up the majority of runs on the season. It was a mechanical issue that was shored up by the playoffs and he was his old self by the post season. I expect him to be very good this year.

I agree, Hader is a quality pitcher. The Padres are going to need to lean on him in the short term (at least).

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Opening day tomorrow!!

[boscokid]

Opening day tomorrow!!

Today!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Today!

Padres game moved back from 1pm to 640pm due to rain

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Crossley, nice start of the season for your Cubs!