From a criteria standpont, Texas Tech is the best play of the week

[No coincidences]

And could possibly end up being the best play on the board in a while.

Unranked home fave vs. ranked opponent at night, jumped from -3 to -3.5 at most shops, RLM on both the ML and spread -- I'm not saying it's a guarantee and the line may move in the other direction before kickoff, but this one has all the makings of a very, very strong play if you typically follow these check points.

[guy Fawkes]

I think I'm with you on one! Just did my write up around the same time you posted. Must be something in the air tonight...

[No coincidences]

I think I'm with you on one! Just did my write up around the same time you posted. Must be something in the air tonight...

We'll see what happens between now and Saturday.

[Dexter]

And could possibly end up being the best play on the board in a while.

Unranked home fave vs. ranked opponent at night, jumped from -3 to -3.5 at most shops, RLM on both the ML and spread -- I'm not saying it's a guarantee and the line may move in the other direction before kickoff, but this one has all the makings of a very, very strong play if you typically follow these check points.

RLM? the initial move was to the dog...

[suicidekings]

And could possibly end up being the best play on the board in a while.

Unranked home fave vs. ranked opponent at night, jumped from -3 to -3.5 at most shops, RLM on both the ML and spread -- I'm not saying it's a guarantee and the line may move in the other direction before kickoff, but this one has all the makings of a very, very strong play if you typically follow these check points.

This game opened first at the Wynn at +3.5 and was bet down to +2.5. Subsequent line offerings at other shops opened at +3 or even +2.5 depends on when the line was released. Early money definitely liked KSU and the books respected the size of those bets to make an initial move from 3.5 to 2.5

Texas Tech has been a bad first half team (against weak opponents) while KSU has been strong in the 1H (against tougher teams). If you're playing the Red Raiders, be prepared to be playing from behind for most of the game.

[TroyGreen]

Kansas St is a pretty good team. The defense is good, running game is good, quarterback works within the system and can extend plays with his legs. Texas Tech on the other hand played their best game in a loss to a team that implodes in the second half weekly.

This is a weird game. Add to that Texas Tech will start a freshman at running back. Tech does get their best WR back this game.

If Kansas St runs the ball and controls the clock they should straight up win. I hope Kansas St isn't buying into they hype though. I wonder if this line has to do with history.

Please let me know why Texas Tech will win this one... What am I missing?

[goldengreek]

And could possibly end up being the best play on the board in a while.

Unranked home fave vs. ranked opponent at night, jumped from -3 to -3.5 at most shops, RLM on both the ML and spread -- I'm not saying it's a guarantee and the line may move in the other direction before kickoff, but this one has all the makings of a very, very strong play if you typically follow these check points.

The same thing last week killed me tho

A 2-2 unraked Mizzou team favored by 4 over a ranked and undefeated K ST team

And Mizzou was on the ROAD !

Mizzou was my biggest play last week and they killed me

[og4667]

I like Tech here as well. They are a good home team, they have played well vs Kstate in the past, public likes the dog here which seems to be especially bad in ncaaf. not a big play but 1 unit on texas tech -3

[goldengreek]

i like tech here as well. They are a good home team, they have played well vs kstate in the past, public likes the dog here which seems to be especially bad in ncaaf. Not a big play but 1 unit on texas tech -3

public dogs have been winning / kicking ass all season

i know , because i have been betting against them and losing

[Love The Action]

Can you explain what the "criteria" is? Thanks

[BiffTFinancial]

Texas Tech's defense is garbage, and no amount of line movement could convince me otherwise.

[Glitch]

i dont think theres any funny business in the line movement. Kansas state is very underrated. i would tread very very lightly on either side of this game but especially TT.

k-state by 11 (48-37). (im staying away from this game)

[linedrivr]

no way kstate hangs 48 on tech in Lubbock. The history between these 2 in Lubbock meetings is very one-sided for Tech.

[og4667]

yeah thats true the public dog fade is not working this season. was once a gold mine but will probably come back

[BigDofBA]

When I first skimmed over the games these week, this one stood out. At first I glance I liked Tech at home. They are hard to beat at home and I just figured there was no way K-State could keep up with their offense.

Then when I looked over this one again, I came to a different conclusion.

I feel like I know the Big 12 pretty well. I've stated this many times when someone thinks they have a lock involving one of these teams and most of the time I've been right on which side would win. I also had K-State against both Baylor and Missouri.

Anyway, enough patting myself on the back. I've seen Tech play a few times this year and they are no where near as good as they have been in recent years. On the other side, K-State is way better than they have been in recent years.

All Bill Snyder does is win. K-State definitely has the coaching advantage and I expect them to come out with a great game plan. Tech isn't going to turn this into a video game type shootout. K-State will run the ball, control the clock, and play good defense.

Who has Texas Tech beaten??? New Mexico, Kansas, Texas State, and Nevada. These are some really bad teams and Tech should have lost to Nevada. They had to come back from double digits in the second half to win that game by 1 point in the final minutes.

Texas Tech also trailed Kansas 21-0 before coming from behind to win. Kansas is really bad.

New Mexico State??? Texas State??? Not impressive at all.

K-State beat Miami on the road and dispatched of Baylor and Missouri at home. Those wins are way better than anything Tech is done. I kind of feel like Texas Tech is a sucker bet tomorrow and it's definitely not one of the better plays in a long time.

What exactly were your criteria??? The line?????? If you played what the line was telling you to play this season in CFB, you would be homeless by now. Also, When the line first came out, money came in on K-State and it actually dropped to 2.5. Did you know that? That wasn't the public taking K-State either.

Anyway, good luck. I definitely would not go large on a mediocre to bad Texas Tech team tomorrow.

[Pivotpoint]

I looked at this game. Won with TT last week, but sweated that out. Covered the +9 , with TT losing by 5. Scored a td in last 30 seconds or so. I've underestimated KST. RB Hubert is a nice back has had some big games against likes of mia,mizzu,baylor. Snyder is a veteran coach. I think he'll game plan and run the ball and clock against a porous TT D. On the other-hand TT usually spanks KST. Couldn't get a good read, but leaned towards TT.

Biggest reason I passed on the game was that 5-0 spread streak for KST. One thing I hate, is betting against streaks. Not saying I never have, but I need a very compelling reason to do so. Yes, they all have to end, but you can be wrong many times. Go with a streak and you can only lose once. The line has underestimated KST all season. Not playing, but good luck with your choice.

[BigDofBA]

I looked at this game. Won with TT last week, but sweated that out. Covered the +9 , with TT losing by 5. Scored a td in last 30 seconds or so. I've underestimated KST. RB Hubert is a nice back has had some big games against likes of mia,mizzu,baylor. Snyder is a veteran coach. I think he'll game plan and run the ball and clock against a porous TT D. On the other-hand TT usually spanks KST. Couldn't get a good read, but leaned towards TT. Biggest reason I passed on the game was that 5-0 spread streak for KST. One thing I hate, is betting against streaks. Not saying I never have, but I need a very compelling reason to do so. Yes, they all have to end, but you can be wrong many times. Go with a streak and you can only lose once. The line has underestimated KST all season. Not playing, but good luck with your choice.

I still trying to figure out what Tech has done this year??? They beat up on two of the worst teams in CFB. Then they struggled to beat two bad teams.

K-State just keeps beating people they aren't supposed to like Mizzou, Miami, and Baylor. All of those teams are better than Tech.

Public perception is that Texas Tech is still a pretty good team and K-State is barely mediocre. I think it's the other way around this year.

[Glitch]

I still trying to figure out what Tech has done this year??? They beat up on two of the worst teams in CFB. Then they struggled to beat to bad teams.

K-State just keeps beating people they aren't supposed to like Mizzou, Miami, and Baylor. All of those teams are better than Tech.

Public perception is that Texas Tech is still a pretty good team and K-State is barely mediocre. I think it's the other way around this year.

they score and more importantly have shown they can score a lot of points in a short period of time in the second half. (texas tech)

[goldengreek]

When I first skimmed over the games these week, this one stood out. At first I glance I liked Tech at home. They are hard to beat at home and I just figured there was no way K-State could keep up with their offense.

Then when I looked over this one again, I came to a different conclusion.

I feel like I know the Big 12 pretty well. I've stated this many times when someone thinks they have a lock involving one of these teams and most of the time I've been right on which side would win. I also had K-State against both Baylor and Missouri.

Anyway, enough patting myself on the back. I've seen Tech play a few times this year and they are no where near as good as they have been in recent years. On the other side, K-State is way better than they have been in recent years.

All Bill Snyder does is win. K-State definitely has the coaching advantage and I expect them to come out with a great game plan. Tech isn't going to turn this into a video game type shootout. K-State will run the ball, control the clock, and play good defense.

Who has Texas Tech beaten??? New Mexico, Kansas, Texas State, and Nevada. These are some really bad teams and Tech should have lost to Nevada. They had to come back from double digits in the second half to win that game by 1 point in the final minutes.

Texas Tech also trailed Kansas 21-0 before coming from behind to win. Kansas is really bad.

New Mexico State??? Texas State??? Not impressive at all.

K-State beat Miami on the road and dispatched of Baylor and Missouri at home. Those wins are way better than anything Tech is done. I kind of feel like Texas Tech is a sucker bet tomorrow and it's definitely not one of the better plays in a long time.

What exactly were your criteria??? The line?????? If you played what the line was telling you to play this season in CFB, you would be homeless by now. Also, When the line first came out, money came in on K-State and it actually dropped to 2.5. Did you know that? That wasn't the public taking K-State either.

Anyway, good luck. I definitely would not go large on a mediocre to bad Texas Tech team tomorrow.

Stop talking about me ..lol

[Pivotpoint]

TT QB Doege has been sharp. One pick, 17TD. 71.4%. Has O clicking. It's that TT D that looks horrible. They've really given up some points, last three games. KST QB Klien has also been impressive. Klien is 6'5" and is athletic. Over 400+ yards rushing ytd. I like TT, but don't like the D and going against KST. Hubert and Klien could keep KST to close for comfort. Books basically opened this even and public shaded TT by a half. Feel this is a toss-up.

[suicidekings]

they score and more importantly have shown they can score a lot of points in a short period of time in the second half. (texas tech)

The ability to score in the second half is nice. A team that makes it necessary to win the 2H because they're trailing at halftime is not.

[BigDofBA]

Stop talking about me ..lol

I wasn't talking specifically about you. I've taken a bit of a beating as well but most of that was the NFL.

I play a lot more favorites in college football because the disparity in talent is a lot greater than in pro sports. That being said, I have lost on some lines that just make no sense. They look so easy and they have been.

As for Tech being able to score a lot, have you people actually watched Tech play this season or are you just basing that off of previous years and this year's box scores?

Tech has put up points this year but they have yet to face a decent defense. New Mexico, Kansas, Texas State, Nevada, A&M???? come on. A&M has gotten lit in three straight weeks.

Tech could win but Synder is a good enough coach that I think this game will be close and I do think K-State has a great shot at winning outright. Texas Tech has horrible run defense and that's K-State's bread and butter.

Look for K-State to run it down Tech's throat, control the clock, and wear them out by the second half.

[robinhood]

I usually love your picks No coin, but taking a side on this matchup is insanity. Over or no play for me.

[BigDofBA]

When I first skimmed over the games these week, this one stood out. At first I glance I liked Tech at home. They are hard to beat at home and I just figured there was no way K-State could keep up with their offense. Then when I looked over this one again, I came to a different conclusion. I feel like I know the Big 12 pretty well. I've stated this many times when someone thinks they have a lock involving one of these teams and most of the time I've been right on which side would win. I also had K-State against both Baylor and Missouri. Anyway, enough patting myself on the back. I've seen Tech play a few times this year and they are no where near as good as they have been in recent years. On the other side, K-State is way better than they have been in recent years. All Bill Snyder does is win. K-State definitely has the coaching advantage and I expect them to come out with a great game plan. Tech isn't going to turn this into a video game type shootout. K-State will run the ball, control the clock, and play good defense. Who has Texas Tech beaten??? New Mexico, Kansas, Texas State, and Nevada. These are some really bad teams and Tech should have lost to Nevada. They had to come back from double digits in the second half to win that game by 1 point in the final minutes. Texas Tech also trailed Kansas 21-0 before coming from behind to win. Kansas is really bad. New Mexico State??? Texas State??? Not impressive at all. K-State beat Miami on the road and dispatched of Baylor and Missouri at home. Those wins are way better than anything Tech is done. I kind of feel like Texas Tech is a sucker bet tomorrow and it's definitely not one of the better plays in a long time. What exactly were your criteria??? The line?????? If you played what the line was telling you to play this season in CFB, you would be homeless by now. Also, When the line first came out, money came in on K-State and it actually dropped to 2.5. Did you know that? That wasn't the public taking K-State either. Anyway, good luck. I definitely would not go large on a mediocre to bad Texas Tech team tomorrow.

I hope you took my advice and didn't go big on this one.

Snyder is a lot better coach!

[No coincidences]

How many turnovers did TT have in the 2H? What an implosion.

[BigDofBA]

How many turnovers did TT have in the 2H? What an implosion.

They just aren't that good.

K-State is better coached and doesn't beat themselves. K-State has a better defense and can run the ball. Finally, K-State has a huge coaching edge.

I've watched both teams all season. I'm a Big 12 guy so I feel like I know the conference pretty well. OU plays at K-State in two weeks and that game really scares me because Snyder will have a good gameplan and K-State won't beat themselves.

OU is sleep walking through their game tonight against Kansas which I kind of expected. They're coming off a huge win against Texas I don't see how they could get pumped to play the worst team in the league late at night.

I looked over your leans earlier and it seems like you had a good day even if you played Tech here.

[No coincidences]

They just aren't that good.

K-State is better coached and doesn't beat themselves. K-State has a better defense and can run the ball. Finally, K-State has a huge coaching edge.

I've watched both teams all season. I'm a Big 12 guy so I feel like I know the conference pretty well. OU plays at K-State in two weeks and that game really scares me because Snyder will have a good gameplan and K-State won't beat themselves.

OU is sleep walking through their game tonight against Kansas which I kind of expected. They're coming off a huge win against Texas I don't see how they could get pumped to play the worst team in the league late at night.

I looked over your leans earlier and it seems like you had a good day even if you played Tech here.

So why in the hell was K-State a dog that the public pounded?

This is an example of another lazy Vegas line in a long line of them. No wonder the books are getting destroyed this year.

[BigDofBA]

So why in the hell was K-State a dog that the public pounded? This is an example of another lazy Vegas line in a long line of them. No wonder the books are getting destroyed this year.

Did K-State get pounded? Where did you get that info?

The line opened at 3.5 and then went to 2.5 right after it opened. This indicates to me that some smart money was laid down on K-State early. After that, the line moved up to 3.5 over the course of the week as I assume people play Tech at home because of their recent success.

If people had really watched both of these teams closely this year then I don't see how you could have taken Tech. At the least you could have made it a no play.

If you guys really don't have an idea about these teams, why are you betting them? Don't just bet a side because of the line, especially in college football.

This game played out about how I expected it to. Tech made some mistakes both forced and unforced, and K-State capitalized. K-State is easily the more fundamentally sound team with the better coach. Tech has a fancy offense but no defense.