EP36's Hot Tub Time Slot Machine

[EaglesPhan36]

4:30pm ET
Arkansas State -17.5 [-110]
The Red Wolves have been the surprise packet of the Sun Belt this season. It's Senior Day and a chance to clinch the outright Sun Belt Championship with a win. Troy has been majorly disappointing and struggles on defense to stop both the run and pass. Arkansas State has great balance on offense and should be able to do whatever they want against the Trojans. They are 4-1 ATS at home, covering some monster spreads. They are 4-0 ATS this season on spreads of 16.5 or higher.

[EaglesPhan36]

5:00pm ET
FCS: Wofford-Northern Iowa Over 48 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

SEC Championship: Georgia-LSU Special Teams or Defense Scores TD [+150] Between the dynamic playmakers in the return game and the turnovers that either defense could cause, I think there's going to be a TD that is not scored by the offense.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big Ten Championship: Michigan State +10 [-120]
Buying the 0.5 hook here to 10. Two rock solid programs in State and Wisconsin. State needed the miracle hail mary to beat Wisky at home, but they had the Badgers on the ropes most of the game. Cousins needs to play well again and avoid turnovers. If they can keep Wilson from being mobile, State should not only stay within this number, but perhaps win it.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Fresno State- San Diego State Over 30.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

2011 Record: 72-52-1 [+15.72]

[EaglesPhan36]

12.9.11

[8pm ET]
FCS Playoffs: Montana -4 [-105]
The Grizzlies host Northern Iowa in the FCS quarters tonight. Montana has been steady scoring all season with 24 or better in ten of 12 games this season. The Grizzlies rank 16th in the country in rushing, putting up 215 yards per game. Northern Iowa ranks middle of the pack in FCS in rushing defense and had plenty of trouble with Wofford's attack last week, giving up 237. UNI though won that battle in spite of massing just 102 yards on offense due to a great kickoff return and untimely penalties. This is really a team in UNI that relies on defense and turnovers. They want to run the ball, but Montana is one of the best in FCS at shutting the run down. If UNI becomes one dimensional and has to really on the pass, they'll be in trouble. If the Grizzlies hang onto the football and finish off drives, they should take this at home.

[EaglesPhan36]

Romp 'n Stomp Montana.

2011 Record: 73-52-1 [+16.72]

[EaglesPhan36]

12.16.11

[7pm ET]
Stagg Bowl D3 Championship: Mount Union-Wisconsin Whitewater Over 43 [-107]
This marks the 7th straight year these two D3 stalwarts have met for the championship. They have split the six previous meetings. Mount Union is the 10th ranked offense in D3, putting up 471 yards per game. Whitewater puts up about 445 per game. Defensively, Mount Union was tops in D3 as they averaged giving up just 7 ppg. In the playoffs though, that average is up to a little over 11 ppg and they gave up a season high 21 points in their last game. Whitewater ranked 5th, giving up just 11.5 ppg. In the playoffs, they have pitched two shutouts and allowed 14 points each in two other games. An area where Whitewater is going to be susceptible is against the pass. Mount Union's balanced offense [200+ yards both passing/rushing] will be a challenge. Whitewater is similar in their balance. Both teams have been stout vs. the run all season, but this is a Rivalry like no other and you can toss all that out the window. The past six meetings show that as the averaged # of points per Stagg Bowl has been 57. Whitewater is the two time Champs here, so expecting a spirited game with a good ebb and flow. Expect both defenses to find some turnovers as Mount Union led D3 with 41 turnovers caused and Whitewater forced 33. Union was much looser with the ball offensively, so look for Whitewater's D to strike more often there.

[EaglesPhan36]

Red zone INTs hurt. Maybe they can play quintuple OT.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, Bowl Time. Time to make or break it.

NEW MEXICO BOWL: Wyoming +7 [-110]
Temple will obviously lean on Pierce here to be the-go-to-guy on the ground. They should be able to pound a Wyoming defense that gives up 231 ypg on the ground. Against run heavy offenses in Air Force & TCU, they were absolutely crushed for over 300+ yards .. the saving grace being seven fumbles by the opposition in those games to keep the score lower. That is the M-O for this Cowboys defense, they bend, but they often come up with big turnovers. Wyoming has good balance with QB Brett Smith as a dual threat. Wyoming has been able to put up at least 20 points in nine of their 12 games this season. Wyoming did a great job all season covering as a dog and pulling some outright wins as a big dog. They likely won't stop Pierce and will need Smith to make some big plays, but if they can win the turnover battle .. Wyoming should stick around in this one.

[EaglesPhan36]

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL: Utah State-Ohio Under 62 [-110]
Two very versatile offenses with QBs who can beat you with their arm or legs. Both pass defenses have been a little leaky, but the run defenses will be key here especially Ohio vs. Robert Turbin of Utah State. Both run defenses have been solid, but will be tested here. With totals set above 60 this year, Utah State is three UNDERs and two OVERs. Ohio has played three straight UNDERs and slowed some solid offenses, including keeping Northern Illinois to just 20 points - a good test for the type of team they play this afternoon.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well I flopped with Wyoming +7, so let's even it out.

[2nd Half] Temple-Wyoming Over 24 [-120]

[EaglesPhan36]

2011 Record: 73-55-1 [+13.35]

Slow go in the postseason. Need to turn it around with the Potato.

[EaglesPhan36]

2011 Record: 74-55-1 [+14.35]

UNDER in the Potato Bowl gets me on the board with a W.

[EaglesPhan36]

BEEF o' BRADY ST.PETERSBURG BOWL: Florida International -4 [-110]
I don't know if there's a less impressive six wins than what Marshall put up to get to a bowl this year. FIU is back in a bowl for the second straight year and that experience should pay dividends here. The offenses boast about the same stats, but defensively FIU has the clear edge as they seem to just make more stops in critical situations. FIU also takes better care of the ball and that may be the game breaker here. FIU needs to contain Marshall's DE Curry who is a stud.

[EaglesPhan36]

2011 Record: 74-56-1 [+13.25]

Been gettin' mushed so far in the Bowl Season. Feel good about this one though.

12.21.11

POINSETTIA BOWL: TCU Team Total Over 33 [-105]
Frogs have the bowl experience here and are always motivated under Patterson no matter where they play. TCU has scored at least 33 points in ten of 12 this season. They have a great blend of run-pass. Pachall has been solid taking over for Dalton. Louisiana Tech has played a couple of dynamic offenses this season and held up well - but still gave up points. 35 to Houston. 44 to Hawaii. TCU ranked 9th in scoring offense this season.

[Smogs]

I think that's a great angle for tonight EP - best of luck

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks Smogs. It's my alma mater too, so hopefully I am in-tune with the Frogs tonight!

[Smogs]

Getting pummeled on dropped passes and penalties, easily cost 10-14 points already for TCU

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I would expect Patterson to rip them a new one at the half, but gonna be tough to get this done if they don't score anything before the half. Bowl season for me, suckin' butt so far.

[Smogs]

Well, they got their td eventually, but i'd happily fly over there to slap some of these guys,the penalties aren't even funny, facemask 15 yards, roughing the kicker 15 yards, personal foul 10 yards, they are just costing the side.

The commentary team pointed out there's no passion, no encouragement - nothing, they don't even care it seems if scouts are watching or the nation.

Just a useless bunch of tw*ts

3 td's and a fg second half needed

[EaglesPhan36]

Maybe we can get OT. That's about the only chance I see here.

[Smogs]

Urgh, so poor

[Smogs]

Just need a field goal EP - but 4 mins left is a little too small i feel

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah only way they score is a big play on a run where La.Tech sells out. But not gonna happen. No more timeouts and no need to push it.

[EaglesPhan36]

2011 Record: 74-57-1 [+12.20]

12.26.11: INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Missouri QB James Franklin Total Pass TDs + INTs Over 2.5 [-115]
Franklin has tossed multiple TDs in seven of Mizzou's 12 games this season. He only has ten picks thrown this season, but he has thrown them in bunches when they come with eight of those in just three games. UNC has had issues against the pass. They have allowed multiple TDs in four of their last six. The Heels though have done a nice job with INTs this season, getting at least one INT in eight of their eleven games against FBS competition. With UNC pretty stout against the run, Franklin may be throwing more than running today and that should yield some opportunities to get this one done even in the rain.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.27.11
Little Caesar's Bowl: Western Michigan-Purdue Over 61.5 [-110]
Nothing to say here, if this one doesn't feature a shit ton of points, I should probably quit for the rest of bowl season and not eat into any more of my profits from the regular season.

[EaglesPhan36]

Belk Bowl: N.C. State-Louisville [Defense or Special Teams Score TD] +160
NC State led FBS with 24 picks and both teams rank in the Top 20 for QB sacks, meaning there could be some turnovers tonight. The Wolf Pack ran back two picks for TDs. Louisville had one pick six. Both teams also have some playmakers in the return game. Louisville scored a kickoff return TD against UConn. The Cards gave up some big returns at times as well with NC State's T.J. Graham a guy who can make a big play in both the kickoff and punt return game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wolf Pack INT TD.

[EaglesPhan36]

2011 Record: 76-58-1 [+13.65]

[EaglesPhan36]

12.28.11

Military Bowl: [1st Half] Toledo-Air Force Under 36 [-110]
Two dynamic offenses here that can put up points, but we're going to see some stiff winds in this game. That may not hinder Air Force's ground oriented offense, but it may make Toledo a bit more one dimensional and unable to capitalize on their prolific passing attack - at least until the QB can learn how the wind is going to effect the flight of the ball in game situations. With more running potentially on tap, that could eat up more clock and if both teams can at least limit some of the big plays in the running game, I think the 1st half will fall just short here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding this prop to the Military Bowl ..

Toledo RB Adonis Thomas Total Rushing Yards Over 125.5 [-125]
Senior RB has battled through a broken arm and thumb to post some big numbers this year and will be looking to go out with a big game. Toledo will look to take advantage of an Air Force defense that yielded 227 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons were absolutely destroyed by Colorado State on the ground in their finale and Toledo runs the ball very well. Thomas finished the year with over 130 yards in four straight games as the Rockets found a groove on the ground. If wind is a factor today, he'll be leaned on more along with his fellow senior Williams to provide a big ground presence. Toledo averaged almost 300 ypg on the ground in their last three.

[2daBank]

wow that Thomas prop has really shot up...i played it @ 113.5-105 instead of eating all the juice 5d had on it @110.5..crazy it up that high..think i will join you on the 1st half under as well..gl EP

[jimmy007oc]

5D took this line off