College Football Is Finally Here!

[Cougar Bait]

Well...almost

Have been anticipating this for some time now. I am sure everyone else is chomping at the bit as well. Have been posting my plays here since 2007 and will be again this year. Also trying to get Wal to post his plays here as well. He hit about 60% last year. Good to see some familiar faces again. HoldEmHook, Sooner, BigDaddy. Where are Ralphie and Houlihan? Those guys both tore it up last year.

Some early leans:

Middle Tennessee St. -4
BYU -3
Oklahoma St. -14
UConn +3
Navy -6.5

[HoldEmHook!!]

Cougar its that time again my brother Lets gitter done

[Cougar Bait]

You are gonna miss out on a good time in Champagin HoldEm. You should try and make it. Good luck this season.

[bacon22]

Can't wait for the games to start.

[Cougar Bait]

I am also leaning to ECU

Anyone have thoughts on this game?

[bypp]

Glad to see you back cougar, I enjoyed your insight last year. Good luck this season.

[Cougar Bait]

Glad to see you back cougar, I enjoyed your insight last year. Good luck this season.

Glad to be back in the CFB forum, feels like home really. This is where I started posting 3 years ago. One of the best places to have great conversations and learn a lot about different angles. As for this ECU game, I really like the Pirates here, they have won 2 of the last 3 and 4 of 6 from Tulsa and they are getting points (+7.5 is currently available). AJ Whitmore for Tulsa was ruled academically ineligible for 2010 yesterday and he made 13 starts last year and has 16 TD's in his career. His replacement? True freshman Thomas Roberson. Not to mention they beat Tulsa 44-17 on the road last year. I think I like the points here, but I'd love to hear the argument for laying 7 and the hook.

[fishmonger]

This ECU team is almost a totally different team from last year. Losing 9 on defense and the qb and rb on offense will be huge. Tulsa on the other hand will be returning 8 on offense and 5 on defense. And a new coach taking over with changes to the offense doesn't work well on the first year with new players at the qb and rb positions. ECu was not very good before skip got there and with him not there I can see them not being very good again. I would almost lean towards Tulsa at this point. I would not put to much stock into what happened last year. The only bright spot I really see for ECU in this game would be the home game.
I do alot of business in the eastern part of north carolina and the attitude of ECU football has seemed to change. It seems like ECU fans are preparing for a long season. It's like the culture has changed from a under dog team that was always looked over, to rebuilding. Just my thoughts and good luck if you end up playing this.

[Cougar Bait]

Good info

[justaguy]

Couger when do you place your bets? Do you place them as soon as you cap them or do you monitor things and wait closer to gametime? Just curious. Thanks man.

[Cougar Bait]

Couger when do you place your bets? Do you place them as soon as you cap them or do you monitor things and wait closer to gametime? Just curious. Thanks man.

It depends on the game, but generally I wait until closer to game time. I don't (usually) middle like BD does, and my bets are only $100 a unit so I am not laying thousands on games. I do this for enjoyment. It is expendable income. If I lose, my life still continues. I still eat, my bills still get paid, etc. Luckily over the past 3 seasons I have done more winning than losing. The MTSU QB situation is a good example of why waiting until closer to game time may be a good idea. Although these situations are rare, they do happen. Hopefully he plays, because I like them in that spot.

[bumppinee]

loving the middle Tennessee pick good luck broham

[Gundog]

Glad to see you back this year bait.

[wal66]

Coug's, at some point this week I am gonna run some early lines. The first 3 weeks of full games are very difficult due to new players and all so the bets will be smaller and the selctions probably fewer.

Goodluck with your plays and your season.

P.S.
It has been 65% and 63% the past 2 seasons, not that I'm keeping track though, lol.

[Cougar Bait]

Coug's, at some point this week I am gonna run some early lines. The first 3 weeks of full games are very difficult due to new players and all so the bets will be smaller and the selctions probably fewer. Goodluck with your plays and your season. P.S. It has been 65% and 63% the past 2 seasons, not that I'm keeping track though, lol.

You have had a good deal of success with your program Wally. No more than 3 plays the first week, all should be small wagers for me.

[BigdaddyQH]

MTSU's QB may not be playing in the Minny game. He got his tail in some kind of hot water over a bad debt and stolen checks. I would wait until we see what happens to him. The game has been taken off the board in a couple of books in Vegas, and has dropped to -3.5 at some offshore books.

I grabbed Navy at -6 awile ago, but 6.5 is stil a solid wager. Navy has too much offensive firepower with the Tirple Option, something Maryland has no expierence in defending.

Pass on the other 3. Oklahoma State has no offense. BYU lost too many offensive skill players and must replace 3 LB's. UConn is O.K, but that game has way too many unknowns in it to wager.

[BigdaddyQH]

Coug's, at some point this week I am gonna run some early lines. The first 3 weeks of full games are very difficult due to new players and all so the bets will be smaller and the selctions probably fewer.

Goodluck with your plays and your season.

P.S.
It has been 65% and 63% the past 2 seasons, not that I'm keeping track though, lol.

This is where you and I differ, my friend. The first 3 weeks of the season offer the best chance to make money because they offer the best chance at bad lines. Not only do the linesmakers not know too much about each team, most of these games are non-con games which also eliminate a ot of angles, trends, and technical end of gaming that hte linesmakers depend on. Remember, the more info you have, the more info the linesmakers have, and they are very good at what they do. It should be easier to find bad lines in weeks 1-3 because there are more of them than there are later on, especialy in week 1. You also have the advantage of potential middles if you did your homework during the summer, and the advantage of an early comeout for Joe Pub, so you can study line movement for a longer period of time than you normally get to do.

[Cougar Bait]

MTSU's QB may not be playing in the Minny game. He got his tail in some kind of hot water over a bad debt and stolen checks. I would wait until we see what happens to him. The game has been taken off the board in a couple of books in Vegas, and has dropped to -3.5 at some offshore books. I grabbed Navy at -6 awile ago, but 6.5 is stil a solid wager. Navy has too much offensive firepower with the Tirple Option, something Maryland has no expierence in defending. Pass on the other 3. Oklahoma State has no offense. BYU lost too many offensive skill players and must replace 3 LB's. UConn is O.K, but that game has way too many unknowns in it to wager.

UConn is always OK, and are a much better team that Michigan IMO. Yeah Michigan has another year in the system but this UConn team is always a great dog. They play opponents tight, and I don't know the exact numbers, I will have to look them up, but I would wager over the last 2-3 years they have preformed very well as a dog.

I like the Navy pick, and will make it a play sooner rather than later probably. As for the OSU pick this is more of a play against Washington State than a play on the Cowboys. The Cougars have lost 9 straight overall and 11 straight road games. They are 1-16 in their last 17 journeys away from Pullman. They lost all five road games last year by at least 21 points and an average of 34. That's the analysis on that one anyway. Still thinking about it.

According to Congrove's power ratings Washington and BYU are 53rd and 16th respectively. That seems like a large separation to only be laying 3 points.

And as for Dasher what a dumb fuk. I hope he plays, it will be my first wager of the season if he does.

Good luck this year Big Daddy, always good to have opinions on the games from people who know their football.

[WorkHorse]

As of today, Dasher is still on the team and practicing like nothing happened. No formal charges of any kind have been filed by the police. MTSU is doing their own investigation subject to NCAA. Head coach Stockstill said yesterday that the Dasher situation had not affected the team at all.

Unless charges are filed before the September 2 opener, he will play.

[wal66]

QH, you are absolutely right about early season bad lines but the past two seasons I have just not seen them clearly. Who knows maybe things will be different this year but no argument that the lines are there to be taken advantage of.

[BigdaddyQH]

I have played 3 games so far, and am thinking about a couple of totals, so for me, that is about right. I did play a middle, but I'mnot happy with it, because I really thought that LSU would be a 3point favorite or more, and that just never materialized. We had LSU +3, but ended up middling with UNC even +105. Well at least we saved some vig getting the 105. Ofcourse UNC can always win by 3, but that is asking a lot.

[Cougar Bait]

I really have no clue what to expect out of that UNC/LSU game

I will probably pass on that one

[canepole]

glad to be here and your picking skills thanks

[dvb02]

I really have no clue what to expect out of that UNC/LSU game I will probably pass on that one

Seems like it could be a very low scoring game. I am not impressed with the offenses.

[THEGREAT30]

not long to wait

[Cougar Bait]

I'd like to hear some thoughts on Colorado vs. Colorado State...the Rocky Mountain Showdown! This line has moved quite a bit, a HUGE Rivalry game the very first week of the season...CSU was a dog last year and won outright...let's break these teams down.

COLORADO STATE RAMS 2009: 3-9 overall (0-8 in MWC)

The Bad News: The Rams lost their top 2 receivers and four OL starters.
The Good News: The linebackers should be some of the best in the league, the run defense should be better (return of Ricky Brewer is key) and the secondary has good depth and should be stingy. Watch for FS Elijah-Blu Smith.

Bottom line: Lots of experience on defense could keep the Rams in games, but too many question marks on offense including freshmen at QB and RB I would expect the Rams to finish with somewhere in the 3-5 win range.

COLORADO BUFFALOES 2009: 3-9 overall (2-6 in BIG12)

The Bad News: There's a lack of depth in the backfield, middle linebacker is a huge area of concern now that Smart is gone, and who knows what is going on in the head of the coach as he starts and pulls his son at QB on a whim!?!
The Good News: No Texas and no Oklahoma State on the schedule, an improved receiving corps (Clemons transferred from Michigan, McKnight and Simas both return), and 7 starters return on D including All-Big 12 candidate Marquez Herrod (6.5 sacks, 11 TFL) and Jalil Brown at CB (15 passes defended).

The Bottom Line: There's no reason to think the Buffs won't improve defensively, but some consistency at the QB position would go a long way. Either Hansen or Hawkins needs to step up.

Current Line: Line seems to have moved to Colorado -12.5 at most books with the total sitting at 46.5/47
My Lean: Under 47. I just don't see the inconsistencies on both offenses against 2 D's that seem to have more experience than last year boding very well in what is a HUGE rivalry game.


I will be at this game, 5 rows behind the Colorado bench so I am looking for as many opinions on this game as possible. I am a Purdue fan, but will be in Colorado so I thought I would catch a game.

[MartinBlank]

Good to see you posting Coug.

I hate to toot my own horn, but I did hit 63% of my plays last year, and 58% in 2008. I post my plays in my blog for all to see.

Anywho.

An interesting statistic I picked up since I have been following it since 2007. In weeks 1 and 2-----teams that return more than 90 starts along their offensive line won at a 79% ATS clip in 2007, 69% in 2008, and 84% in 2009.

Again, after the first two weeks----the numbers dropped off dramatically---but a team with that much experience along the offensive lines had considerable success ATS in the first two weeks.

Teams that have more than 90 starts returning in 2010 are listed below....This information is courtesy of Phil Steele---available on his website and in his 2010 annual.

GEORGIA155FLORIDA ST146LA TECH126MINNESOTA114N TEXAS113AUBURN111COLORADO109BOSTON COLLEGE108WISCONSIN107TEMPLE107W MICHIGAN107FRESNO ST107C MICHIGAN104TOLEDO100S FLORIDA99SAN JOSE ST95BOISE ST94OHIO ST93MIDDLE TENN93BALL ST92UCLA92RICE91UTAH ST91

[Cougar Bait]

Good info Martin, yes you did well last year, good to see you posting

You gonna blindly play these teams week 1 based on this stat?

[MartinBlank]

Good info Martin, yes you did well last year, good to see you posting

You gonna blindly play these teams week 1 based on this stat?

Coug...No.

Instead I couple it with a few other items.

I take that information....then I begin to break it down further. I like teams with QBs with more than 10 career starts----basically a returning starter, and I also like teams playing at home.

From that I can create a workable game selection sheet and make my plays.

[masr]

Good luck to you this season...

[shady610]

same thing happens every year.

1. my wsu cougars suck
2. 2 surprise teams win a lot but wont make a bcs championship
3. ohio state loses but never seems to drop very far
4. notre dame gets too much coverage for not doing anything major


just trying to get my post count up

[redrum]

i like the va tech pick

[Cougar Bait]

What's up masr Shady your Cougars do suck Martin start a thread instead of just a blog
Good luck boys, check out my college football video and have a laugh:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/627357-motivational-morning-2-college-football-2010-video.html

Feedback is appreciated so if you watch it, post in the thread

[OverUnder]

UCONN +3 I like it Cougar

[Cougar Bait]

UCONN +3 I like it Cougar

This is about a day away from being a play