First week home dogs

**SoonerBS** · 08-13-10, 05:41 PM

I'm currently warming up to Kansas St. However, by game time, they may not be a dog anymore.

**kalamity85** · 08-13-10, 06:29 PM

well the line has been pretty stable so far at +2.5. we'll see what happens as the date gets closer

**HoldEmHook!!** · 08-13-10, 09:32 PM

Tough to go against the Bearcats

**ackem19** · 08-13-10, 09:36 PM

I think Cincy will be a tough matchup for Fresno St. They may have lost Brian Kelly, but they got his former assistant who runs the exact same gameplan and they replace Pike with a (much better in my opinion) Collaros. I also really like Kentucky over Louisville. Louisville struggled on both sides of the ball last season and you also have a SEC team taking on a Big East team. Kentucky will look to run the wildcat which worked out well for them last year and I don't see Louisville having much success stopping them. As for Hawaii an USC, I think it's important to consider that they are playing in Hawaii were good teams have often struggled for some reason (time difference maybe). USC is 3-9 ATS in road games over the last three years. Additionally, they'll be playing on turf, which they've only played on 4 times in 3 years and they are 1-3 ATS.

Just some things to consider. BOL with all your week 1 picks.

**officepoolguy** · 08-14-10, 12:24 AM

USC is 3-9 ATS in road games over the last three years. Additionally, they'll be playing on turf, which they've only played on 4 times in 3 years and they are 1-3 ATS.

Like the trend and will look against USC.
Would love to hear any PAC-10 trends. I always try to pick just one conference and make my picks from it as otherwise with the NFL and College football games I go crazy.

**larojoes** · 08-15-10, 10:24 AM

Rice - Texas is a neutral site game; it's important to have such facts straight.

**kalamity85** · 08-16-10, 04:21 PM

for me it's hard to go against cincy too. however fresno state always does well against good non conference competition. last year they lost to wisky by 3 AT wisconsin and almost beat cincy AT cincy. the year before they beat rutgers, lost to wisky by 3, beat toledo, and beat UCLA. last year when fresno st. played cincy at cincy, they outgained the bearcats by 86 yards, had a 25-15 FD advantage, had a 43:42-16:18 TOP advantage, and was -1 in turnovers. fresno st. is 10-1 in home openers including 3-1 vs. BCS teams. fresno st. returns their entire offensive line intact which helped gash the bearcats with 290 yards rushing on a 5.1 avg. HOWEVER that was with ryan matthews. i'm pretty sure the numbers won't be as good in this game but i still believe they will be able to sustain drives and grind out cincy on the ground as cincy only has 3 returning starters in their front 7. fresno st. also has a senior QB that isn't spectacular but decent. if fresno had to throw the ball i believe they would be consistent enough. cincy has a new coaching staff and is traveling cross country. last year cincy was able to score very quick (4 TDs with an average of 2:08/drive). i think for the first road game under a new coaching staff and only 3 returning starters in the front 7, the game will be prolonged as fresno will grind it on the ground and cincy will have longer drives on offense. i'm forseeing a very close game where the total is under 50.

**BigdaddyQH** · 08-16-10, 04:36 PM

Rice gets destroyed no matter where they are playing. UCLA will beat K-State. UCLA does not lose openers and are very good against non-con teams ATS under Neuheisel.

**kalamity85** · 08-16-10, 04:43 PM

for the kentucky at louisville game, i think these teams match up well on paper. both have new headcoaches but louisville is at home so the advantage goes to them. this is also a Rivalry game to go along with the first game of the season so you know the crowd will be up especially with the renewed feeling of a new head coach. kentucky returns only 1 offensive lineman and the unit is a major question mark going into the season. with a new head coach, inexperienced O line, and raucus rivalry crowd in the first game of the season, i think the offense will have serious problems getting any sort of consistency. i'm counting on those factors to overlook louisville's inexperienced D, which only returns 4 starters. the defense is veteran group though with all of them being juniors or seniors except for FS shenard holton who is a sophomore. on offense, louisville returns 8 starters and only have to replace one starter on the O line. the O line has good size as they average 6-5 307 lbs. their running back group is veteran as they return their top 3 guys and their QB is a senior. because of these factors i believe their offense will show more consistency than kentucky's especially since they're at home. last year the game was at kentucky but louisville outgained kentucky by 32 yards and held a 19-18 FD advantage. kentucky had a good ground game last year averaging 5.1 yds/carry. i doubt they will be able to replicate that this year.

**The DiB** · 08-23-10, 10:11 AM

UCLA just lost their starting center on Saturday with a fractured ankle. With injuries and suspensions, their offensive line is a little thin right now. They could be in trouble if they lose another linemen. Just something to keep an eye on for those considering playing that game.

**bigcat1** · 08-23-10, 11:16 AM

agreed with the most part of the uk/ul game, except uk will beat ul and cover, now for the part i agree with you yet, their avg on the ground will not be able to duplicate that against the sec, but ul is not the sec...uk will roll, week 1 right it down... bol

**3runhomer** · 08-23-10, 01:54 PM

I like your rice play

**kalamity85** · 08-23-10, 02:46 PM

The DiB, yes UCLA is having a lot of injury issues right now especially on offense. they're also trying out that pistol formation crap. i have no conifdence in their offense.

bigcat1, if your only argument is UK is in the SEC so that means they'll roll, then i will stay with my pick.

**kalamity85** · 08-24-10, 03:41 PM

i now see kansas st. as a 1.5 point favorite after UCLA lost another lineman and their starting QB is still out.

**ACCBlitz** · 08-24-10, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by kalamity85

so how do you guys feel about first week home underdogs? I thought as a general rule they are dangerous to bet against. so far i'm liking these first week home underdogs:

Toledo +14.5 vs. Arizona
Rice +29.5 vs. Texas
Louisville +3 vs. Kentucky
Kansas st. +2.5 vs. UCLA
Fresno st. +1.5 vs. Cincinatti

the home dogs i'm going against are:

USC -19.5 vs. Hawaii
Wisconsin -19.5 vs. UNLV

If you would like me to explain my reasoning for any of the games just ask as i don't have time or the energy to do a write up right now for each game.

USC in the -19/-20 range is mighty tempting. Aside from their God awful ATS on the road, it's actually a sound play. Hawaii is complete sh!t this year. And my money is on Kiffin going pedal to the medal every game to prove himself. Same goes for all those 5-Stars on the field.

Wisconsin is a gimme at that line. Jumpin all over it

**AL1322** · 08-24-10, 11:31 PM

i think rice will get beat by 40+...easy win

**dodo97** · 08-25-10, 12:18 AM

The one thing that concerns me with USC is the fact that injuries seem to be mounting there and the lack of depth will be tested. I'm already down on that game (at -18.5) but not as confident as I was when the lines first came out. Lots of youth and inexperience will be on the field for the Trojans. At the end of the day, I still like them to get it done, but I am just hoping to see some players come back in the next week or so, and no more go out.

**larojoes** · 08-25-10, 09:27 AM

I expect Rice to get blown out. Fresno St. as a dog or short home fave is very tempting. If I had to bet on another home dog, it would be Kansas St. It's questionable whether Fresno & Ks. St. will be dogs at kickoff.

**kalamity85** · 08-25-10, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by dodo97

The one thing that concerns me with USC is the fact that injuries seem to be mounting there and the lack of depth will be tested. I'm already down on that game (at -18.5) but not as confident as I was when the lines first came out. Lots of youth and inexperience will be on the field for the Trojans. At the end of the day, I still like them to get it done, but I am just hoping to see some players come back in the next week or so, and no more go out.

the injury front isn't that bad at USC. they had a scare recently with khaled holmes but MRI's just showed a pinched nerve. i think USC will bring a healthy squad to hawaii barring anything weird going on between now and then. all the recent "injuries" are short very short term stuff.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 08-25-10, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by dodo97

The one thing that concerns me with USC is the fact that injuries seem to be mounting there and the lack of depth will be tested. I'm already down on that game (at -18.5) but not as confident as I was when the lines first came out. Lots of youth and inexperience will be on the field for the Trojans. At the end of the day, I still like them to get it done, but I am just hoping to see some players come back in the next week or so, and no more go out.

There's not a real lack of depth when the 4th-string RB was the #1 high-school 'back in the nation in '08.

Inexperience: Yes.

I think the coaching collective here will have things sorted out rather quickly.

**Boscoe** · 08-25-10, 03:34 PM

how's UNLV supposed to be this year? anyone have thoughts on them?

**kalamity85** · 08-25-10, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by kalamity85

so how do you guys feel about first week home underdogs? I thought as a general rule they are dangerous to bet against. so far i'm liking these first week home underdogs:

Toledo +14.5 vs. Arizona
Rice +29.5 vs. Texas
Louisville +3 vs. Kentucky
Kansas st. +2.5 vs. UCLA
Fresno st. +1.5 vs. Cincinatti

the home dogs i'm going against are:

USC -19.5 vs. Hawaii
Wisconsin -19.5 vs. UNLV

If you would like me to explain my reasoning for any of the games just ask as i don't have time or the energy to do a write up right now for each game.

updated lines:

Toledo +15 vs arizona
Rice +28 vs texas
Louisville +3.5 vs Kentucky
Kansas st. -2.5 vs UCLA
Fresno st. -2 vs. Cincy

USC -21 vs. Hawaii
Wisconsin -20.5 vs UNLV