1. 10-05-23 08:56 AM #1
    usma1992
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    NCAAF picks... for Week 6...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    8:00 PM JACKSONVILLE 29 MIDDLETENNST 21 50 -3 51.5 Away ML Too Close
    9:00 PM FLAINTERNATI 16 NEWMEXICOST 23 39 -6.5 49 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM SAMHOUSTONST 2 LIBERTY 41 43 -20.5 46 Home Minus Too Close
    8:00 PM WKENTUCKY 33 LOUISIANATEC 25 58 6 60 Too Close Too Close
    7:30 PM KANSASST 38 OKLAHOMAST 19 57 11.5 54 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM NEBRASKA 25 ILLINOIS 22 47 -3 42.5 Too Close Too Close
    12:00 PM TOLEDO 43 MASSACHUSETT 12 55 18.5 58.5 Too Close Too Close
    12:00 PM BOSTONCOLLEG 24 ARMY 32 56 -3 49.5 Too Close Too Close
    12:00 PM LSU 41 MISSOURI 27 68 5.5 64 Too Close Too Close
    12:00 PM OKLAHOMA 29 TEXAS 27 56 -6.5 60 Too Close Too Close
    12:00 PM MARYLAND 17 OHIOST 31 48 -20 57 Too Close Too Close
    12:00 PM RUTGERS 22 WISCONSIN 27 49 -13 44 Too Close Too Close
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  2. 10-05-23 08:57 AM #2
    usma1992
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    12:00 PM WMICHIGAN 23 MISSISSIPPIS 34 57 -20.5 56.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM MARSHALL 27 NCSTATE 24 51 -6.5 44.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM UTSA 34 TEMPLE 21 55 14 54.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM CMICHIGAN 23 BUFFALO 32 55 3 52.5 Home Plus Too Close
    3:00 PM WASHINGTONST 32 UCLA 26 58 -3.5 60 Away ML Too Close
    3:30 PM SYRACUSE 27 NCAROLINA 29 56 -8 59.5 Too Close Too Close
    3:30 PM WAKEFOREST 18 CLEMSON 44 62 -21 52 Too Close Too Close
    3:30 PM VIRGINIATECH 18 FLORIDAST 36 54 -24 52 Too Close Too Close
    3:30 PM NORTHTEXAS 38 NAVY 37 75 -6 61 Too Close Over
    3:30 PM NILLINOIS 25 AKRON 16 41 5.5 43.5 Too Close Too Close
    3:30 PM BALLST 15 EMICHIGAN 15 30 -2.5 43 Too Close Under
    3:30 PM BOWLINGGREEN 16 MIAMIOHIO 20 36 -9.5 45 Too Close Too Close
    3:30 PM KENTST 12 OHIOU 35 47 -26 45 Too Close Too Close
    3:30 PM PURDUE 24 IOWA 14 38 -2.5 39.5 Away ML Too Close
    3:30 PM ALABAMA 25 TEXASA&M 24 49 1.5 46.5 Too Close Too Close
    3:30 PM TEXASST 29 LALAFAYETTE 32 61 -2.5 68.5 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM UCF 34 KANSAS 21 55 -2 65 Away ML Too Close
    4:00 PM VANDERBILT 15 FLORIDA 33 48 -18 52 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM ARKANSASST 15 TROY 40 55 -16 52 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM SFLORIDA 37 UAB 33 70 3.5 69 Too Close Too Close
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  3. 10-05-23 08:57 AM #3
    usma1992
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    5:00 PM CONNECTICUT 21 RICE 31 52 -9.5 48 Too Close Too Close
    6:00 PM TULSA 26 FLAATLANTIC 30 56 -3.5 56 Too Close Too Close
    6:30 PM COLORADO 40 ARIZONAST 28 68 3.5 59.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM KENTUCKY 11 GEORGIA 33 44 -14.5 47.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM SALABAMA 28 LAMONROE 10 38 10.5 51 Too Close Under
    7:00 PM OLDDOMINION 20 SOUTHERNMISS 33 53 -1.5 57 Too Close Too Close
    7:30 PM NOTREDAME 25 LOUISVILLE 19 44 6 54 Too Close Too Close
    7:30 PM ARKANSAS 17 OLEMISS 38 55 -11.5 62.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:30 PM MICHIGAN 25 MINNESOTA 1 26 19 45.5 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM GEORGIATECH 17 MIAMI 43 60 -21 57 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM TCU 38 IOWAST 14 52 6.5 52.5 Away Minus Too Close
    8:00 PM FRESNOST 35 WYOMING 6 41 6 44 Away Minus Too Close
    8:00 PM COLORADOST 35 UTAHST 37 72 2 65 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM SANJOSEST 30 BOISEST 34 64 -9.5 59 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM TEXASTECH 37 BAYLOR 29 66 1.5 60.5 Too Close Too Close
    10:00 PM OREGONST 30 CALIFORNIA 24 54 9.5 52 Too Close Too Close
    10:30 PM ARIZONA 19 USC 41 60 -22 71.5 Too Close Too Close
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  4. 10-05-23 10:25 AM #4
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Looks good, usma. Can tell you put a lot of work into this.

    Game I'll have my eye on = Okla/Texas. Sooners have not yet had a high-profile game. Sooners look live to me.
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  5. 10-05-23 10:27 AM #5
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Minn is bad. If this game lands 25-1, I'll send you a c-note:

    7:30 PM MICHIGAN 25 MINNESOTA 1
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  6. 10-05-23 11:49 AM #6
    usma1992
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    That is definitely and interesting game. I think in my next iteration of the model... I am going add an elimination of the over bet if one of the teams has a zscore of less than -1.4 on their passing attempts. The service academies rarely pass and so it is can be very difficult to hit the over.

    Two of the overs this week are service academy games.
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  7. 10-05-23 12:16 PM #7
    HockeyOtt1978
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    USMA1992. Thanks for sharing your model output. Curiosity question for you…I saw in a previous thread that the model results don’t take into account weather/injuries for upcoming games, however do you take into account on the input? I am thinking of awful weather leading to a low scoring game that could be an outlier much like the Miami 70 point outburst was an outlier. Thanks!
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  8. 10-05-23 05:24 PM #8
    usma1992
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    Appreciate the question...

    First the Miami game I definitely am concerned about. A game like that is extremely rare and destroys the statistics... probably for the year.

    Injuries... I have no chance at accounting for them

    Weather ... I believe can be done and I look forward to adding to my system to adjust for the weather.

    If I adjust Miami down 20%... I still think the system picks them.

    Dave
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  9. 10-05-23 06:02 PM #9
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Looks good, usma. Can tell you put a lot of work into this.

    Game I'll have my eye on = Okla/Texas. Sooners have not yet had a high-profile game. Sooners look live to me.
    Picked up a nice note on Texas:
    *Texas has played against a BACKUP QB in each of their L3 games, including KS last week.
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  10. 10-05-23 08:25 PM #10
    usma1992
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    So right now... your on the hook for analysis beyond the numbers which includes your Las Vegas play and your analysis of the Red River rivalry. I don't hold it against you by any means.

    I know that the analysis has to go beyond the numbers but I want the numbers to mean 90% the analysis to to mean the last 10%.
    Which is what you are doing...
    Dave
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  11. 10-05-23 09:56 PM #11
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    So right now... your on the hook for analysis beyond the numbers which includes your Las Vegas play and your analysis of the Red River rivalry. I don't hold it against you by any means.

    I know that the analysis has to go beyond the numbers but I want the numbers to mean 90% the analysis to to mean the last 10%.
    Which is what you are doing...
    Dave
    Dave, I'm not on top of my game. Pretty busy nowadays, not doing the requisite amount of work.

    *I'll call Oklahoma an Opinion. I actually have no action on that game, for one reason. I missed the +6.5, I hate taking the short-end of the #.
    ...Was speaking to another capper, and he made a great point. As good as the Sooner offense is, they gave up some long pops to IASt. Texas figures to have success w/ Ewers throwing.
    ...Big key for me = Okla 49-0 revenge. Should feel good about getting a great effort in rivalry game.
    ...And I am a fan of Gabriel (75% completions). He's a little under-the-radar b/c they have yet to play a hi-profile game.

    Yes, the Raiders were a play for me. But I will repeat what I always say: *It's the # on YOUR TICKET.
    ...I bet Raiders at +2.5 (1.90) and +1.5 (2.00). Those prices are gone.
    ...Raiders now favored, so I'll be holding good BTCL (vs # at kickoff).
    ...There are 7 AFC vs NFC games this week. If I was a betting man, I'd feel good about the AFC going 4-3 ATS or better in those games.
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  12. 10-07-23 03:00 PM #12
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    us, props if you had the Sooners.
    ...Seems like a lot of Dog bettors were on them today.
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  13. 10-09-23 07:49 AM #13
    A Quant
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    Dave, really appreciate you posting your system.

    As I said a dozen times, love this content.

    Here are the numbers for the selections you posted for Week 6.

    Overall: 3-8

    Broken down:
    Money line: 1-3
    ATS 1-3
    Totals: 1-2

    Keep grinding man! Do your thing, it will turn.
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