1. #1
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks - 2023/24 - Season Long Thread

    Dapper Dan Picks
    NCAAF 2022 Season YTD: 56-62 (-18.86 units)
    NCAAF 2023 Season YTD: 0-0


    It’s football Season and it feels a lot like Christmas morning as a kid and the air is ripe with opportunity and will be every Saturday for the next 15+ weekends- don’t let anyone steal that joy from you. Gambling is not a vice, it is an expression of our humanness - all the evidence shows that God was a gambler and our very existence is a gamble - wager accordingly. The choice is ultimately yours. For those that are new - we provide a statistical analysis of college football picks and have done so for over a decade now - 7 of those seasons have been profitable, 4 have been losing seasons (last year was a loser) - overall we are up and we have never had two losing seasons in a row (do jinxes exist?) - all documented online (see totals/google sheets below). May fortune favor the bold and good luck to all who play this game of risk with the odds stacked against us Picks will be limited and write ups won’t be as thorough first few weeks until the statistics start to pile up ☮️❤. All lines/odds tracked through Betstamp app - message me for free texting service if you prefer.

    NCAAF Week 0:
    New Mexico State/UMass Under 46 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Both of these teams are in their 2nd year of new coaching staffs (some of the best coaches squaring off in this one - Jerry Kill and Don Brown!) where in the 1st year they both saw big improvements overall and especially on the defensive side of the ball. Don Brown, 2nd year head coach for UMass is the notorious defensive guru who spent years at Michigan after Durkin left (‘16-’20) where he led a Top 10 defense every season until his last year in 2020 where theVID regulations surely played a part in his one “poor” season. UMass returns 8 starters on defense (ranked 26th in % of total tackles returning) - that although wasn’t great last year- showed significant improvement from their 2021 form where they allowed 43 points and 485 yards per game - last year only allowing 31 points and 370 yards per game. Their offense returns mostly in-tact too with 7 returning starters and a few new additions but that’s not necessarily a good thing when you averaged 12 points per game last year. For NM State - Jerry Kill’s coaching presence can be seen in the numbers on a team that improved from going (2-10) in 2021 to (7-6) in 2022. His defense improved from 127th ranked in def ypp allowed to ranking 46th! Both teams love to run the ball ranking 7th and 16th in rushing play % so the clock will not stop much. UMass’s offense has an incredibly slow “pace of play” if you look at their TOP % is ranked 25th but their plays per game is ranked 82nd. (Anyone got any good websites that give you pace of play for college teams?). In last year’s matchup there were 36 total points as NMSU won by 10 but their offense really struggled - especially on 3rd down where they went 0-12 and old Don Brown really outschemed Jerry. This one should be a similarly low scoring game, especially since it’s the first game. Take the under.

    Ohio +3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Ohio is entering its 3rd year with Tim Albin and their offense showed lots of improvement already last season and 9 starters return, ranked 3rd in % of yards returning including their seasoned veteran QB, Kurtis Rourke who impressively threw for over 3200 yards last year averaging 9.2 yards per attempt, and completed 69% of his passes with 25 TD’s and only 4 INT’s. He got hurt and missed the last 3 games and the bowl game which I think gives this team a little value. This experienced offense already ranked in the Top 40 of most FEI statistical categories should put up points even though SD State defense has proven to be one of the tougher units in the league (last year ranked 15th in ypp allowed) but only 6 of those starters and less than 50% of their total tackles return (ranking 92nd) . Their offense has been another story - averaging 21.5 points per game and ranked 100th in ypp. It won’t improve much this year with the same converted QB/Safety under center, Jalen Mayden (wjp and now a new first time OC, Ryan Lindley. They only return 6 starters on offense and are a much less experienced squad then Ohio. I think their offense will definitely struggle out of the gate and will struggle to keep up with Ohio who ultimately pulls away.

    NCAAF Posted Records:
    2012: 80-58 +22.3 units
    2013: 96-97 +10.62 units
    2014: 66-87 -27.55 units
    2015: 82-54 +26.98 units
    2016: 65-67 -5.37 units
    2017: 74-66 +1.41 units
    2018: 72-90 -20.19 units
    2019: 70-68 +0.87 units
    2020: 70-64 +1.63 units
    2021: 89-63 +25.68 units
    2022: 56-62 -18.86 units

    Lifetime Total: 820-776 +17.52 units (51.37% win %)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1348600954
    Points Awarded:

    mjsuax13 gave Smutbucket 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    Smutbucket
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    DAPPER DAN PICKS
    NCAAF 2023 SEASON YTD: 0-2 (-2.3 UNITS)


    Nothing like starting the season off with a starting QB getting injured in the 1st qtr and having an under where 23 points scored in the 1st three quarters (as planned) - only to have 48 points scored in the 4th qtr - all big blown plays or defensive TDs. Fortunately this isn't our first rodeo and we get back on the horse. If there’s one thing I’ve learned to be true in sports betting over the decade is your current emotional state is a big multiplier in the outcome of your results. So if things are going well in life then you're more likely to focus better, win more bets, and be successful. When you’re in a bad emotional state and things are not going well in life then the games tend to go sour too and you lose focus, make more emotional bets, and in consequence lose more bets. Thankfully this year I have been blessed with the greatest gift one could hope for in life and I am expecting my first baby girl to be born any day now before the football season so we are more happy, focused, and determined then ever and poised for another breakout season. Write-ups below and adds coming tmrw and Saturday.

    NCAAF Week 1:
    Utah ML (-200)
    Minnesota -6 (-125)


    Utah ML (-200) Risking 2 units to win 1 units
    Revenge game here that Utah lost last season (and we had for a unit too) and expect the Utes to come out firing and pissed off at home after starting last season with a big L against the Gators. These are two different teams this year as Utah is returning one of the most experienced teams - ranking 28th overall in PS experience charts - a huge contrast from Florida’s 108th experience rankings. Even if Cameron Rising does not play, I think this Utah team has enough pieces around backup Bryson Barnes to run away with this game (was originally going to take the points but decided ML with the backup). They have the same 5th year OC, Andy Ludwig so their offense should really excel considering they have one of the most experienced offensive lines returning with 3 starters back and others with plenty of experience. Their starting RB, J Quinton Jackson transitioned from a QB position halfway through last season and ended the season taking the majority of their reps and averaging 6.81 yards per carry! They have a great two TE set, with Brant Kuthe and 6’5 giant Thomas Yassmin. Transfer CB Miles Batte and returning PAC 12 defensive freshman of the year - Lander Barton help make this team very well rounded on both sides of the ball.Their defensive line is deeper than ever thanks to many transfers from the PAC 12 all migrating to the team that took the title the last two years - aiming for a 3rd. Florida on the other hand is a different story as they welcome transfer QB Graham Mertz - a QB so mediocre and shitty that even with an amazing Whisky defense on the other side of the ball - still managed to get Paul Chryst fired after 8 seasons. He averaged a much less impressive 2000 yards per season and a 19:10 TD:INT last season and in 2021 throwing more INTs than TDs at 10:11. Last year Florida did not end on a good note - losing 5 of their last 7 games, including the Bowl game where they got blown out 3-30 by Oregon State. The Utes were the PAC12 Champion last season but never got an opportunity at the playoff contention due to the fact they lost their opening game to the Gators - one of the bottom teams in the SEC - so expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder at home this year coming out strong. Utah should win big but we take the ML to be safe in this uncertain world.

    Minnesota -6 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    I'm a big fan of Athan Kaliakmanis - he’s a big guy who hangs in the pocket well and is patient enough to make the big throw with pressure in his face. Watch the Wisconsin game from last year and you’ll see him do that time and time again and that was as a freshman. This year he will have a strong receiving corps and operate an offense that is probably going to shift to a more pass-heavy style, as OC Kirk Ciarrocca departs and in house WR coach Matt Simon and TE coach Greg Harbaugh Jr are promoted to co-OC’s. Despite losing lots of talent, their defense should be top tier again as Joe Rossi returns for his 5th year and has had a hell of a defense almost every season with Minnesota. Nebraska has a lot of buzz around the hiring of Matt Rhule - but a closer look at his program turnarounds show that it took some time to develop and implement his schemes - at Temple he went 2-10 his first season as head coach, at Baylor his first year he went 1-11. I don’t think this team will fare well with QB transfer Jeff Sims from Gtech - his 2022 highlight reel can be seen in under 5 min on youtube, most of which he’s running or has a wide open receiver - what happened to his other 400+ minutes on the field? A whole lot of nothing. He has a slow delivery and is inaccurate - he took 19 sacks last season - a very high number considering he only had 188 pass attempts - of which he only completed 58% and had 5 TDs and 3 INT’s in 7 games. I think Minnesota wins this handedly and buy it down to 6 if you can.

  3. #3
    Smutbucket
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    Week 1 Adds

    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 1: 1-1 (-.25 units)
    Season YTD: 1-3 (-2.55 units)


    Week 1 Adds:
    California -5.5 (-115) 1.5x
    UTSA ML (-125) 1.5x
    Virginia tech -15.5 (-108)
    Wash/Boise State Over 58.5 (-102)
    Boston College -7 (-130)
    Toledo +10 (-125)
    Toledo ML (+308) .25x

  4. #4
    Smutbucket
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    writeups

    Week 1 Adds:
    California -5.5 (-115) Risking 1.73 units to win 1.5 units
    My favorite bet of the weekend but only 1.5x units, will go up to 2 unit max bets when the season gets rolling. Cal has one of the most experienced teams returning - ranking 12th in PS’s differential exp rankings - they come back especially experienced on defense (13th rank of total tackles% returning) so you can expect defensive minded Justin Wilcox’s defense to improve from last year. Last year they had less than 20% of their team seniors and had the 4th most starting freshman in college ball. Wilcox knows how to develop a good defense and has been doing it in college ball for almost 2 decades now all over the PAC12. To fix things on offense, they get a new OC, Jake Spavital who I am a big fan of as he’s coached some of the best QBs in college football - including Manziel, Kyler Murray and Geno Smith and worked under some great offensive minds. As an offensive coordinator, Spavital has piloted offenses on teams that finished in the top 20 in the country in total offense six times, reached seven bowl games, and earned a spot in the AP Top 25 in seven different seasons. He spent the last 4 years at Texas State as a HC but struggled and now he’s going to be Wilcox’s play caller and bring a completely new offensive look to this team. He will debut a new QB Sam Jackson V who’s a true dual threat QB and brings a new edge to the Cal offense. Ironically enough, Cal’s new offensive line coach and run game coordinator, Mike Bloesch, spent the past three seasons as North Texas’ offensive coordinator so he will be able to give them plenty of insight into their offensive schemes. Returning sophomore RB Jaydn Ott is one hell of a runner and nearly got to 1000 yards in his first season as a freshman and averaged 5.3 ypc. Not only did Green Men lose a lot of their experience ranking 75th in PS’s differential charts - they are bringing in all new coaches without much Power 5 experience. Cal had 6 four-star recruits in 2021 (ad 1 last year), UNT has had 0 in the last 5 years. Cal should win this one easily.


    UTSA ML (-125) Risking 1.73 units to win 1.5 units
    Another huge experience mismatch in a revenge game that a UTSA team has circled as they had Houston beat 21-7 going into 4th qtr but then let them back in it and ended up losing in triple OT, despite out gaining Houston by 100 yards total yards. Houston ranks 103rd in exp charts this season while UTSA ranks 13th. I love their head coach - Jeff Traylor is a disciple of Chad Morris - one of my favorite innovative offensive minded coaches. He has one conference USA coach of the year the last two years and has gone 23-5 in those two seasons. Houston on the other hand lost it’s play-caller and head coach Dana Holgerson will take over the play calling. He has the same DC, Doug Belk, who took over the sole DC spot last year and gave up 32 points per game. Despite having 7 starters on defense return - they actually lose 8 of their top 9 tacklers! Their defense should continue to struggle this season and I think UTSA goes on the road and smashes Houston to kick off their season. This is my other favorite bet of the weekend and 1.5x units


    V-tech -15.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
    Revenge game here as ODU upset Vtech last year to start the season but ODU is not the same team as they rank 130th in experience rankings, and lost a ton of players to the transfer portal including their starting QB for the last two seasons. Also look at the recruiting as over the last two years, ODU only got 27 three star recruits. Vtech has pulled almost double with 47 three star recruits and 4 four star recruits over the last two years. I always liked Brent Pry’s defenses at Penn State and think he can only improve with 7 returning starters in his 2nd year as a HC. Hopefully Kyron Drones takes over the starting QB role as Grant Wells has never looked great. There should be some ATS value in Vtech if their team can improve, the market is certainly down on them as they have gone 13-20 ATS in the last 3 years.

  5. #5
    Smutbucket
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    Wash/Boise State Over 58.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
    Both of these teams' offenses come back nearly entirely intact and both defenses are losing more than half their starters - although neither defense was particularly good last season so no reason to expect that to improve with all the lost experience at that side of the ball. First about their offenses - Washington had one of their best offensive performances under new HC Kalen Deboer averaging 39 points per game and have experienced starting QB Penix Jr back who should continue to lead this offense to a lot of points and big plays. Although Boise State's offense wasn't great last year - it should improve with 9 returning starters and sophomore Taylen Green at QB with a year of experience under his belt after taking over the starting role last season after Hank Bachmeier hit the transfer portal. Green is a true runner that looks to improve his passing game but he can definitely do some damage on the grounds where he racked up 586 yards on the ground last season for an average of 7.23 yards - he ran for over 100 yards in 3 games, including the Bowl Game. On defense they have 3rd year DC, Spencer Danielson who has been with the program for a while but the last two years he had more than 8 returning starters each season, this year he only has 5 and expect Boise’s defense to drop off from the 19 ppg they allowed the last two years. They are the type to dominate the weaker teams in their conference but struggle against the better offenses and Washington is one of them. Let’s hope for a shootout!


    Boston College -7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
    Despite the horrible season last year, I think Jeff Hafley can turn this team around. Everything starts at the line of scrimmage and this was one of the worst blocking teams in history last year. Hafley brought in a few transfers to help their line and rank 8th in starting experience of their O-line. Starting QB, Phil Jurkovec is gone who has battled injuries the last two years and couldn’t do much last season without much blocking. Emmet Morehead took over the starting role at the end of the season and has much more experience in his 2nd year. They should be a much more run-heavy team this year and brought in a new offensive analyst Rob Chudzinski who has been coaching in NFL/college level for a over 25 years and was offensive coordinator for the Miami Hurricanes back in 2001-03’ when they dominated college football. Hafley is one hell of a recruiter and managed to get 6 four star recruits and 42 three start recruits in the last 2 years. A huge difference of what Thomas Hammock can do at NIU with only 15 three start recruits last season. Their coaching staff I have as one of the lowest rated in the league and has been almost entirely the same for the last 5 years. They gave up 33 points per game on defense last year against much weaker competition then Boston College. Sagarin SOS has BC’s team last year with the 49th strongest schedule and NIU at 109th so this team has had much tougher competition over the years as you would expect in Power 5 vs Group of 5. Boston College blows this team out (buy to 7 to be safe)


    Toledo +10 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    Toledo ML (+308) Risking .25 units to win .75 units
    The biggest mismatch on the experience chart on paper with Toledo outranking Illinois by 105 ranks in experience this year. Jason Candle has been very consisten over the last 5 years and brings back the same coaching staff to a very solid team last with 8 returning starters on both sides of the ball and rank 11th in exp charts. On the other side we have Bret Bielema entering his 3rd year, his 1st year he really struggled (5-7) but turned around a bit last year going (8-5). Their biggest strength was their defense but this defense is going to look very different because not only is their play caller Ryan Walters gone (left for Purdue) but they only have 6 starters returning and 50% of their total tackles (ranking 88th). On offense they have brought in transfer Luke Altmyer to lead the team at QB. He has never had any significant starting experience and despite being the guy brought in at Ole Miss in blowouts the last two years - career stats are pretty poor - with 1:1 TD/INT ratio and completing only 52% for 5.9 ypa. They will also have to figure out a way to fill the void of starting RB Chase Brown who accounted for almost 2000 total yards last year. I love the fact that Toledo is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and Illinois 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games giving us value. This one will be close but don’t be surprised if Candle pulls of the upset so we sprinkle that in for a quarter unit!

  6. #6
    Smutbucket
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    NCAAF Week 1:
    Utah ML (-200) W
    Minnesota -6 (-125) L
    California -5.5 (-115) 1.5x W
    UTSA ML (-125) 1.5x L
    Virginia tech -15.5 (-108) W
    Wash/Boise State Over 58.5 (-102) W
    Boston College -7 (-130) L
    Toledo +10 (-125) W
    Toledo ML (+308) .25x L

    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 1: 5-4 (+0.97 units)
    Season YTD: 5-6 (-1.21 units)

    More to come tmrw.

    Week 2:
    Kansas/Illinois over 56.5 (-108)
    Kansas ML (-154) .5x
    Utah -6 (-125)
    UCF ML (-154)

    Kansas ML (-154) Risking .77 units to win .5 units
    Kansas/Illinois over 56.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
    This is mostly the same Kansas team from last year that hit overs at a 70% rate last year. They are ranked #1 in experience charts with nearly all of their % of yards gained returning and % of tackles returning. Their defense was very exploitable last year, ranking 104th in PFF defensive ranks. In their first game they did not grade out too well against Missouri State ranking 120th in tackling. Illinois is a very inexperienced team and rank 88th in % of total tackles returning. They will not be ready for this Kansas assault that Lance Leopold has done a heck of a job in putting together - even if starting QB Daniels is out (but will most likely return) backup QB Bean has shown capable of stepping right in and leading the offense well. Luke Altmyer was very impressive in his opener against Toledo, completing 70% of his passes and rushing for 60 yards on the ground in crucial moments when he needed to keep the drive alive - Kansas’s defense was very vulnerable to mobile QB’s last year. I think Kansas ultimately pulls away in the end in a shoot-out but could be close so we take the ML for half unit but I think the experience will prevail.


    Utah -6 (-125)
    Locked in early as square as can be after Baylor got upset last week and Utah with the big win but since starting Baylor QB, Shapen is out I think this is an easy winner as Sawyer Thompson doesn’t seem like a suitable backup.

    UCF ML (-154) Risking 1.54 units to win 1 units
    It’s my alma mater with one of my favorite coaches and fastest QB’s in the league in their 3rd year together with a very experienced team. I will try not to bet them too much but I love watching this team. They rank 9th overall in experience - 34th with % yards returning, 31st in % of tackles returning, and 15th in offensive lineman total starts. They are much more experienced then Boise State that ranks 52nd overall in experience charts and really struggled on both sides of the ball last week against Washington. (Granted defense was expected but their offense put up some horrible PFF numbers as well - ranking #119th overall, 119th in passing, 131st in receiving, 52 in run game and 107th in run blocking. They even struggled in special teams, ranking 130th in the league after week 1. I really like UCF’s new offensive coordinator, Darrin Hinshaw who has a long history of success as a co-offensive coordinator at a few programs - his offenses were Top 25 in ypp at Cinn from ‘14-’15 and at UAB last year ranking 14th overall. He was the leading passer for the Knights back in the 90’s and obviously Malzahn sees some potential in him as he hired him back from UAB after he was an offensive analyst for UCF in 2021 and left in 2022. UCF should win big and I think they have a great season.

  7. #7
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 2: 2-0 (+1.5 units)
    Season YTD: 7-6 (+0.29 units)

    Week 2 Adds: Turned out to be a big card! What can you do! Lets Eat:
    Vandy/WF Under 30.5 [1st Half] (-110)
    Iowa State +4.5 (-125)
    TexasAM/Miami Over 50.5 (-110)
    Tulsa +34 (-111)
    Ohio/FAU Over 60.5 (-110)
    Pitt/Cinn Over 45 (-110) 1.5x
    Texas +7.5 (-111)
    California +7 (-130)
    [2 Team 6 pt Teaser] Rutgers -2 and Ole Miss -1 (-120)

  8. #8
    nyrb
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    GL, good writeups

  9. #9
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks
    Week 0: (0-2) -2.3 units
    Week 1: (5-4) +.97 units
    Week 2: (10-3) +6.55 units
    Season YTD: 15-9 (+5.22 units)

    No writeups this week - sorry very busy and will most likely be a small card as not a lot of good matchups - back with more tmrw morning!

    Week 3:
    Tennessee -6 (-110) 1.5x
    UVA/Maryland over 47.5 (-105)

  10. #10
    Smutbucket
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    oops double

  11. #11
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Season YTD: 16-9 (+6.22 units)

    Week 3 Adds:
    Syracuse ML (-113) Risking 1.7 units to win 1.5 units
    Illinois/Penn State Over 47.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Rutgers -6.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
    UMass +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 untis to win 1 units
    Iowa State ML (-126) Risking 1.26 units to win 1 units
    [2 Team 6.5 pt Teaser] Arkansas -1.5 and SJ State +14 (-130)

  12. #12
    Smutbucket
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    oops forgot the late night add:

    Fresno/Arizona State over 49 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units

  13. #13
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks
    Week 0: (0-2) -2.3 units
    Week 1: (5-4) +.97 units
    Week 2: (10-3) +6.55 units
    Week 3: (4-5) -1.93 units
    Season YTD: 19-14 (+3.29 units)


    Great News: My little baby girl Isabella Joli was born this week 9/18/23. Although it hasn’t left me much time for football numbers this week so I won’t be posting any write-ups again this week (but will 100% be back with write-ups next week) - I do have one play and write-up for today and the rest of the card will come out tmrw morning but doubt I have the time to make write-ups for all of them but this one tonight was a piece of cake so wrote it up real quick.


    Week 4:
    San Jose State +7 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    This is a beautiful SOS mismatch no matter who’s scales you use - I like Sagarin and it shows San Jose State having the 11th strongest schedule to date with Air Force a horrible 186th! Air Force has basically had two FCS opponents - one they only won by 10 where SJ State has faced off against USC, Oregon State and Toledo (the latter two are looking impressive) - competition matters. These two coaches have been at each other's programs for so many years they have faced off twice back in 2019 and 2020. The first game Air Force one but the 2nd matchup San Jose State won outright as a 7 point dog. SJ State’s QB Chevan Cordeiro has seen his share of starts with almost 1500 passing attempts in his 6th year, in contrast Air Force’s QB Zach Larrier is a 4th year senior who only has 10 pass attempts in his career as he was always a backup at AF being outplayed in practive only to finally take over this year - which he has an easy ride thus far. I think they keep this one close at home on a Friday night!

  14. #14
    shopbar picks
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    Congrats on the baby

  15. #15
    Smutbucket
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    Thanks Shopbar !

    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Season YTD: 19-15 (+2.04 units)


    Week 4 adds:
    FSU ML (-117) Risking 2.34 units to win 2 units
    Kentucky -12.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
    Tulsa +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Ole Miss +7.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Utah -3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    Miss. State +7.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    ND +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Cal +21 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 nits
    2 Team 6.5 pt Teaser - Kansas -2.5 and Syracuse -6.5 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units

  16. #16
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks
    Week 0: (0-2) -2.3 units
    Week 1: (5-4) +.97 units
    Week 2: (10-3) +6.55 units
    Week 3: (4-5) -1.93 units
    Week 4: (6-3) +3.4 units
    Season YTD: 25-17 (+6.69 units)


    More tmrw morning - just one for tonight. Good luck all will be up late crunching numbers all night long into the morning - lots of interesting matchups.


    Week 5:
    Utah +4.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
    Okay I’ll bite. This is a rare occurrence where we have two coaches who have been with their programs for a while and have faced off the last 4 years in a row where Utah has won 3 out of the 4 games (and dominated two of them including last years). All the numbers I look at show strong advantages to Utah with a stronger strength of schedule with Utah ranking 26th and Oregon St ranking 69 according to Sagarin. Utah is also the much more experienced team, with a differential ranking of 34th compared to 80th of Oregon State from PS’s exp charts. The best thing about this Utah team is their defense ranking 35th overall in PFF, 32nd in coverage, and 26th in the pass rush. This could be a problem for DJ Uiagalelei who struggled with pressure at Clemson and the Oregon State offensive line is ranked 82nd in pass blocking. Utah’s rush defense has been even more stout - allowing only 1.7 yards per carry on the season ranking 2nd. Oregon State’s defense has been mediocre as it usually is ranking 47th overall in PFF, 59th in coverage, and 13th against the run. Their rushing defense is a bit of a ruse as they haven’t played any tough running teams like this Utah front who averaged 5.2 yards per carry against Oregon State last year when they blew them out by 26. Oregon State’s secondary ranks 114th in completion % allowed, 97th in yards per pass allowed, and 85th in defensive passing efficiency. Huge edge to Utah. We also have the team that has less turnovers per game, less penalties per play, and is one of the best at the possession game - ranking 8th in the nation that is a struggle of the Beavers who rank 78th in TOP%. We also have a huge edge in tackling as Utah ranks 8th and Oregon State ranks 73rd in true PAC 12 fashion. If we get Rising back there’s good odds we should win outright but we’ll take the points just in case he sits again.


    Week 4 Results:
    SJ State +7.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units L
    FSU ML (-117) Risking 2.34 units to win 2 units W
    Kentucky -12.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units W
    Tulsa +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units W
    Ole Miss +7.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units L
    Utah -3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units W

  17. #17
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks

    Season YTD: 25-18 (+5.58 units)



    Week 5 Adds:

    Kentucky ML (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units

    Arkansas +7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units

    California -12.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

    Illinois ML (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units

    Baylor +9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

    Duke +6 (-120) Risking 2.4 units to win 2 units

    Pitt ML (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

    Kansas +17 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units

    NIU/Toledo Under 48.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units

    2 team 6 pt teaser- Clemson -1 and Minnesota -5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

  18. #18
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 5: 3-8 (-7.36 units)
    Season YTD: 28-25 (-0.67 units)

    Rough week last week - injured starting QBs, bad beats and bad bets. Bounce back time we put the work in this week early. More to come tmrw morning - this what we got locked in so far.

    Week 6:
    LSU/Missouri Over 62.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    Rutgers +14.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    NC State/Marshal Under 45.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
    Miami -20 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
    Old Dominion +2.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units



    I get an error anytime I try to post my write-ups so must be a character limit. I have them posted other places sorry SBR please fix - thanks

  19. #19
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 5: 3-8 (-7.36 units)
    Season YTD: 28-25 (-0.67 units


    Week 6 adds:
    Notre Dame -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Syracuse +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Alabama ML (-122) Risking 1.22 units to win 1 units
    Colorado -3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Baylor +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Iowa/Purdue Under 39 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units

  20. #20
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 6: 5-5 (-0.47 units)
    Season YTD: 33-30 (-1.14 units)


    Got a lot of extra time to focus on the numbers this week. Hopefully we catch another heater.


    Week 7:
    Utep/FIU Under 44 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    SMU -11.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units


    Utep/FIU Under 44 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    UTEP is most likely going to be starting its 3rd/4th string QB due to a bunch of injuries and concussion protocols and their offensive numbers before that were never that impressive. Their receivers are ranked 118th in PFF and their rushing attack ranked 61st. A closer look at FEI ranks and they are at the bottom 5-10% of almost all FEI offensive ranks including big plays over 10+ yards where they rank 115th so let’s not expect any big plays from their side. Both defenses have pretty poor numbers as well but the one big strength of this UTEP defense is their pass rush which ranks 6th in the nation in the pass rush according to PFF. A big problem for this FIU defense that has allowed sacks on 12% of it’s passes - ranking 124th in the league (rank 111th according to PFF). Last week their starting QB Keyone Jenkins was under such duress that he got knocked out of the game. According to FEI, UTEP’s offense ranks 130th and FIU’s ranks 132nd - both have been horrible on 3rd down ranking #130th and #127th. Neither offense has been able to run the ball over 4 yards per carry and are at the bottom of the league in that category. Last year when these two teams faced off - UTEP dominated 40-6 but scored 38 of their points in the first half before FIU made adjustments and held them to 0 in 2nd half (not counting 2 pt safety on defense). FIU was held to 76 total yards in that matchup and both teams have the same coaching staff's return so hopefully this game plays out like the 2nd half of last years where 8 points were scored.


    SMU -11.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    I love when we get the best possible matchup on paper with a #1 ranking pass rush vs #133 ranking pass-blocking - East Carolina’s rotating QB’s should be running for their lives against this SMU pass rush. On average across all positional categories in PFF - SMU outranks ECU by 64 rank differential on defense - and 37 ranks on offense! In FEI, more of the same with SMU’s offense outranking ECU’s defense by an average of 50 ranks accross all categories and 57 ranks on defense! You know a teams especially bad by their performance on 3rd down - where ECU ranks #110th on offense and on defense. We also have the much more discplined team as SMU ranks 30th in penalties per play and ECU ranks 133rd. We also have a nice advantage in special teams, according to PFF, SMU ranks 25th and ECU ranks 97th. On paper I can’t see why SMU shouldn’t be able to pull away in the 2nd half by 2 TD’s.

  21. #21
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:

    Season YTD: 35-30 (+0.86 units)



    Week 7 adds:

    Notre Dame ML (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units

    Kansas -2.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 unit to win 1 units

    Rutgers ML (-188) Risking 1.88 units to win 1 units

    Texas A&M +3.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

    Georgia Southern +7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units

    Iowa State +5.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units

    Charlotte +3.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

    UF/South Car Under 50.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

    UCLA/Oregon State Under 54.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

    2 Team Teaser 6.5 (-130) - Miami OH -2 and Wisconsin -2.5

  22. #22
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 7: 5-7 (-3.35 units)
    Season YTD: 38-37 (-4.49 units)


    No fricking around this week. All business. Last week I fricked around too long and had to work on the spreadsheets with a hangover and little sleep saturday morning rushed. This week I got the numbers done by Wednesday and have been locking them all week - love the card. I’am also starting to add a few props where I find big advantages to either a) QB rush yards, b) QB/WR/RB total yards over/unders.


    Week 8:
    Penn State/OSU Under 46 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
    Rutgers -4 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
    TCU +7 (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5 units
    Hawaii/New Mex Over 60 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    Pittsburgh +2.5 (-123) Risking 1.23 units to win 1 units
    Northern Illinois -12 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
    Wisconsin ML (-147) Risking 1.47 units to win 1 units
    Duke +14.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
    UAB/Memphis Over 61 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
    Mississippi -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    2 Team 6 pt teaser (-120) Missouri -1.5 and Alabama -2. Riskin 1z2 units to win 1 units

  23. #23
    Smutbucket
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    Adding: Joe Milton III Rush Yards under 13.5 (-115) Risking .58 units to win .5 units

  24. #24
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 8 Results: 7-5 (+1.2 units)
    Season YTD: 45-42 (-3.29 units)


    Week 9:
    Syracuse +3.5 (-125)
    Georgia Southern ML (-115)
    Purdue/Nebraska Under 40 (-110)

  25. #25
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Season YTD: 45-42 (-3.54 units)


    Week 9 Adding:
    Maryland -13.5 (-115)
    UCF/WVU over 58 (-110)
    Iowa State ML (-137)
    Oregon -6 (-110)
    Ohio State -14 (-115)
    Tenn ML (-170)
    UNC -11.5 (-104)
    Oregon St/Arizona over 56.5 (-102)
    Purd/Neb. Under 40 (-110) Posted Thurs.

  26. #26
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 9 Results: 5-5 (-0.56 units)
    Season YTD: 50-47 (-3.85 units)


    Just one for tonight, no time for writeup:


    Week 10:
    Duke -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

  27. #27
    Renegades
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    Leonard must be out

  28. #28
    Smutbucket
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    Ahhh had no idea Riley was out but shoulda figured with move


    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Season YTD: 50-48 (-4.95 units)

    Sorry no writeups as the wifey’s sick and on baby duty- but pulled an all nighter digging into card and focusing on what’s ripe and what’s a trap. We firing away. LOVE THIS CARD. A couple props too - been killing those lately with 2dabank (prop dan) but not been posting - Biggest bet of season on ND - split between ML and points 2.7 units total. all plays 1 unit except Taulia prop is .5x unit with juice for int


    Week 10 adds:
    Notre Dame -2.5 (-125)
    Notre Dame ML (-144)
    Nebraska -3 (-104)
    Arizona State/Utah Under 39 (-110)
    Houston/Baylor Over 57.5 (-115)
    MTSU/New Mexico State Over 55 (-109)
    Kansas +3.5 (-125)
    Alabama -2.5 (-125)
    Washington ML (-141)
    SMU 1st Half -6.5 (-115)
    2 team 6 pt teaser (-120) Auburn -6.5 and Miami FL (Pk)


    Props:
    Taulia Tagovailia Interceptions over .5 (-170) .5x units
    John Rhys Plumnlee over 236.5 passing yards (-115)
    Tyler Van Dyke over 259.5 passing yards ( +104)
    Damien Martinez over 93.5 rushing yard (-114)

  29. #29
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 10 Results: 5-11 (-8.17 units)
    Season YTD: 55-58 (-12.02 units)


    Got crushed last week. The good news is I finally figured out a way to re-create my spreadsheet that's going to save me a sh!tload of time…In the past, for comparing PFF #’s - I always manually input each team's value for every matchup - a very time consuming task that would usually take me about 10 hours to do and I’d be rushing to complete by week's end Friday night and then at that point was so exhausted with it all I would rush my picks….Now I can get the same tables created in ¼ of the time and going to do my best to get done every week by Tuesday so I can spend the rest of the week focusing on the card/matchups and situational angles. I think over the last two years as I’ve been getting better at spreadsheeting - I’ve been a little too invested in the season numbers but need to re-focus on situational angles, how teams have been performing lately (some get hot with new QBs or cold with injuries) and watching condensed games…..Anyways we move on and look to salvage the season. This week no write-ups as I literally had the “aha” moment on Thursday afternoon on how to re-create my spreadsheet and got it done late too. Next week will be back with full writeups. I don’t get these totals - they are either spot on and hit in the 1st half or so bad not even 20 points near. Onward and Upward


    Week 11:
    Indiana +7 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    Maryland (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
    NC State -1.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
    Troy -21 (-120) Risking 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
    NW/Wiscy under 43 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Minn ML (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
    Rutgers +2.5 (-115) Risking 1.76 units to win 1.5 units
    Aub/Arkansas Under 49.5 (-103) RIsking 1.03 units to win 1 units
    Ole Miss +11.5 (-111) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Duke/UNC Under 51.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
    2 team 6 pt teaser (-120) Texas -6 and Iowa State -1. Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

  30. #30
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 11 Results: 5-6 (-1.82 units)
    Season YTD: 60-64 (-13.84 units)


    Let’s get to work. More shit in the AM.


    Week 12:
    Colorado +4.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
    Col/Wash State Over 62 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    This game lights up green on the spreadsheets for two teams that love to throw the ball over 60% of the time against two passing defenses that are some of the worst in the country. In coverage, Wash State ranks 105th and 107th in tackling. For Colorado in coverage is even worse ranking 119th and 72nd in tackling. Across all FEI categories the offenses have a strong advantage and an average of 20 ranks across all categories. Both teams are going to be very fired up as they are both playing for a bowl game on a Friday night game. Both special teams are some of the worst in the country that should lead to some good field position or points as Colorado’s special teams ranks 110th and Washington State’s ranks 99th. Both defenses are in the bottom 10% of almost all categories including 3rd down conv % and completion % allowed. Both teams also like to play fast as they are in the bottom ¼ of the league in TOP% but in the upper half of plays per game - especially Colorado who ranks 120th in TOP% but 6th in plays per game. On paper - they are pretty equally matched but if you look at the last 4 games (despite losing all of them) Colorado has looked like a much better team as Wash State has often shot themselves in the foot and somehow only put up 7 points against Stanford's defense and 6 against Arizona’s. I think we start off the weekend with a nice + 2 units on Friday night.


    Northwestern +3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    NW certainly has a lot more to play for - as they need one more win to be bowl eligible at their last home game, where interim head coach, David Braun was named the coach and lost the “interim” tag. This is a revenge conference game as a very different Purdue team has beat them the last two years. Last week their offense showed a spark after Ben Bryant came back after a month of being sidelined and took apart Wisconsin’s defense putting up 24 points. Purdue’s offense also had a record-setting day last weekend but it was against a much weaker defense in Minnesota - they won’t get the several busted coverage free TD’s that the gophers gave them and 353 yards on the ground. Even more impressive lately is NW’s defense who held Wiscy with Mordacai back to only 10 points (3 really but 7 in garbage time). Their defense should win this game as they have a significant advantage over Purdue’s secondary that has been getting eaten up all season and rank 133rd in PFF in coverage, and 77th in tackling. NW’s secondary ranks 78th in coverage and 28th in tackling.


    Arizona ML (+100) Risking 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
    All the numbers I look at show the wrong team is favored here, and Arizona has been even better at home - so this will be my biggest bet of the weekend most likely. Have you seen this Noah Fifita? He is one dynamic QB and knows how to buy time in the pocket, although he doesn’t need to as Arizona is not only one of the fastest teams at getting the ball out but they are also high completion % short passes, (Fifita is 74 completion % on the year~!). Their offensive line is one of the best at protecting their QB ranking 3rd in pass blocking and across all PFF categories - Arizona’s offense outranks Utah’s defense by an average of 46 ranks. Arizona’s offense ranks 11th overage, 28th in passing, 16th in receiving, 6th in rushing and 53rd in run blocking. According to PFF, Utah’s offense has been one of the worst in the nation, ranking 84th overall, 131st in pass blocking, 118th in passing, 108th in receiving, 34th in rushing and 20th in runblocking. The one strength of this Arizona defense has been there run defense that ranks 60th in PFF and has allowed only 3.4 ypc on the season - ranking 20th. Arizona should be able to get pressure against Utah’s offensive line that has struggled at pass blocking as they rank 32nd in sack%. Utah has won (and covered all but one year) for the last 6 years but this will be one the Wildcats steal from the Ute’s and a great game to watch!

  31. #31
    Smutbucket
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    Week 12 Adds:
    ECU/Navy under 30.5 (-109)
    SMU -9 (-110)
    Duke -155 (ML)
    UCLA +6 (-110)
    NC State/Vtech Under 41.5 (-110)
    UNC +8.5 (-110)
    UCF +3 (-120)
    UF/Missouri over 55.5 (-117) 1.5x
    Oregon State ML (-115)

  32. #32
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 12: 7-6 (+0.88 units)
    Season YTD: 67-70 (-12.96 units)


    Sorry no writeups today- busy week with fam and work. Maybe a few tmrw but we have some kicking off very soon so no time!


    Week 13:
    Iowa +3 (-119) Risking 1.19 units to win 1 units
    Miami -8.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
    Missouri -9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    New Mexico +6.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units

  33. #33
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Season YTD: 71-70 (-8.96 units)


    Week 13 Adds:
    Louisville -7.5 (-104)
    Michigan ML (-164)
    FAU +4.5 (-115)
    Syracuse ML (-120)
    Wisconsin ML (-135)
    Maryland/Rutgers Under 44.5 (-106)
    VTech ML (-125)
    FSU -5.5 (-125)
    Iowa State +10.5 (-120)

  34. #34
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 13: 11-2 (+8.9 units)
    Season YTD: 78-72 (-4.06 units)


    Lets keep the heater going! No writeups sorry busiest week of the year with museum opening. All risking 1 unit


    Week 14: Championships:
    Boise/UNLV over 60 (-110)
    SMU/Tulane Under 47.5 (-120)
    Alabama +5.5 (-106)
    Iowa +22 (-103)
    Louisville +1.5 (+100)

  35. #35
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 14: 3-2 (+0.97 units)
    Season YTD: 81-74 (-3.09 units)


    It’s BOWL SEASON AND WE”RE ON A HEATER AND DESPERATELY HUNGRY TO END THE SEASON IN THE BLACK - In the 11 years we have been posting picks online - Dapper Dan bowl picks have gone 113-94 (+25.62 units)! We enjoy the extra rest and spend that time working OVERTIME! More bowls to come next week.


    Bowls:
    Ohio/Georgia Southern Under 49 (-110)
    Miami (OH) +7 (-120)
    New Mexico State/Fresno State Over 51(-110)
    New Mexico State ML (-160) .75x
    California +4 (-120)

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