1. #1
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks - 2022/23 - Season Long Thread

    Dapper Dan Picks:
    NCAAF 2021 Season Total: (89-63 +25.68 units (59% win rate))
    NCAAF 2022 (0-0) YTD:


    HELL YES - MY FRIENDS! Another college football season is here. Time to make some money. This year I will be posting write-ups here and now tracking on 3rd party betstamp - @dapperdanpicks is my usual handle. Feel free to message me and Iíll add you to the texting service - or just download the betstamp app and follow me on there and they will alert you any time I lock in my play. Love these two plays to kick off the season. Maybe even tease them together and ML parlay as well for a little extra fun and action.

    Week 0:
    Nebraska -12 (-109)
    New Mexico State +8.5 (-109)


    Writeups:
    Nebraska -12 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    Excited to see Scott Frostís offense with a new QB finally after 4 years of being plagued by the over-hyped Adrian Martinez. He was a turnover machine with 30 INTís and 31 fumbles over his career, a huge factor in many of their losses. If you watched Nebraska football under him, you would also have seen open players streaking down the field that were usually missed by Martinez. Frost has taken a lot of crap for this and is fortunate this season to bring in the veteran transfer from Texas, Casey Thompson. They also bring in a new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. It will be very interesting to see the meshing of the two offensive styles they bring together. On the other side of the ball you have a bland Northwestern team that has seemed to be figured out by most of the BIG 10. The same two coordinators return from last year that led a horrible team to a 3-9 record. 9 awful starters return on offense (ranked 104th in Offense FEI), including Ryan Hilinski at QB who had averaged 5.6 yards per pass and had more INTs then TDs. (4:3) Their defense was just as bad, ranking 101st in defensive FEI - only 5 starters return and I donít expect them to be ready for the many wrinkles Frost and Whipple will have drawn up for them. Nebraskaís defense really improved last season, and although they lost their entire starting D-LineÖ.4 of itís top 5 tacklers return. By year's end they were surprisingly ranked 14th in overall defense FEI. Nebraska also had a much harder schedule than Northwestern last season ranking 2nd overall - where Northwestern ranked 42nd. Frost will have this team fired up and will look to make a statement - This should be a blow-out much like last season's matchup where Nebraska won 56-7.

    New Mexico State +8.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    I typically stick to the major conferences but the coaching changes in this one brought too much value to the table for this big dog. Donít ask me how but New Mexico State was able to bring Jerry Kill out of retirement- one of the best (not well known) coaches of all time. This man lives and breathes football and he has turned around a few small school programs including Northern Illinois and Minnesota. Many years ago - there used to be a website coachesbythenumbers.com that gave out situational breakdown stats for all coaches. Sadly, the website no longer gives out the data for free and charges absurd amounts of money for the data as their target clients are recruiting programs and athletic directors looking to shell out big bucks to turn their football programs around. What about the little guys CBTN? What about us gamblers? Iíve emailed them every season since they were taken down, but they still are way too pricey - and at this point just ignore my emails. (Does anyone have a good coaching data site that gives you ATS for coaches only - not teams) Anyways, Jerry Killís name was at the top of almost every ATS list during the time this website existed, especially in the 2nd half as he is the master of 2nd half adjustment. He also has two great experienced coordinators with him in Tim Beck and Nate Drelling. Nevada lost its entire relevant coaching staff and brought in a bunch of green replacements who were just promoted up within their own program, including new head coach Ken Wilson. He will have to lead one of the least experienced returning teams in the league in Nevada as they are ranked 131st in Phil Steeleís experience chart - with only 19% of their total yards returning, and 31% of their total tackles - both in the bottom 3% of the league. The offensive line as a group only has 44 career starts - ranking 110th in the league. Almost made this a 2unit bet but restrained myself as after all this is a ďcrap conferenceĒ game in the 1st week so anything can ultimately happen but I definitely think the KILL is worth a one unit bet in this scenario. Sprinkle a little on the ML and even teased Nebraska and NM State together for a little extra action this week.

  2. #2
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks
    Week 0: (0-2) -2.18 units
    Season YTD: (0-2) -2.18 units


    Week 1:
    Pittsburgh -7 (-125)
    Penn State/Purdue over 53 (-109)
    Indiana/Illinois Under 45 (-109)
    Utah ML (-141)

    Pittsburgh -7 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    Narduzzi is going to have one hell of a team this year - especially in the trenches. His defensive line returns 3 out of 4 starters that ranked 6th overall in line yards, 12 overall in opportunity rate, 2nd in power success and 3rd in sack rate. Their offensive line returns all 5 starters, is the 2nd most experienced group based on total starts, and were ranked 18th in line yards and 22nd in opportunity rate last year. New offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr is a better fit with a slower pro-style offense as Mark Whipple’s pass happy offense really contrasted Narduzzi’s defensive-minded control of the clock possession type football. Kedon Slovis transfers in from USC and brings plenty of experience starting over 25 games in his career. His numbers last year weren't great but if you look back to 2019 (a different world then) he completed 72% of his passes on 392 attempts with 30 TDs and 9 INTS. Look for Cignetti’s new offense to utilize giant TE 6’5 Gavin Batholomew who should nicely mismatch his under-sized competition in this whacky 4-2-5 BIG 12 defensive scheme who’s tallest safety is 6’1. I’ve never been a big Neal Brown fan as turning around one Sun Belt conference football program isn’t much to brag of. He’s been in the crappy BIG 12 for 3 years now and has more losses than wins. This year he has one of the least experienced teams returning - ranking 115th in Phil Steele’s experience chart. An interesting twist in this matchup is new WVU OC Graham Harrel - he was OC at USC from ‘19-’21 and coincidentally coached both starting QBs in this game during his reign there - as JT Daniels transfers over from UGA after transferring from USC in 2019. Let the transfer portal drama unfold - LOVE IT! Originally when I started this write-up I was leaning heavily on the under but decided to take Pitt and the points under a TD if we could buy (don’t think it will drop below a TD anymore so locked in) - both are solid bets I think and perhaps a healthy tease but I’m most comfortable with laying the points for 1 unit as it’s still early.

    Penn State/Purder over 53 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    I like this play despite both defenses being very strong last season - Penn State only allowing 17.3 ppg and Purdue 22.4 ppg. Penn State lost 7 starters on defense (5 to the NFL) and have a new DC with Manny Diaz. He is one of the greats but he’s very aggressive leaving his defense prone to mistakes and big plays (especially in week 1). He likes to bring pressure which Purdue’s quick pass offense counters well (THIS AIN'T THE ACC DIAZ! - another league BIG10) - they have seasoned veteran Aidan O’Connell with 6 other starters on offense returning for a team that put up 29.1 ppg last year. Both teams love to throw the ball, with Purdue ranking 6th in pass play % and Penn State ranking 22nd. Both teams love to play fast, Purdue ranking 22nd in plays per game and Penn State ranking 29th (but with a much lower TOP%) Penn State's offense is also in year 2 with OC Mike Yurcic and Sean Clifford together with 6 other starters returning. Although Clifford is inconsistent, Penn State has two of the top returning receivers according to PFF grades in Parker Washington and WKU transfer Mitchel Tinsley. Both teams' offensive lines were in the bottom 5% of the league in almost every line yard category and hopefully that trend continues and they both abandon the run game that churns the clock. Penn State may get some push as Purdue’s run defense was in the bottom 5 in the Power 5. Aidan O’Connell is surprisingly one of the top rated PFF QBs returning ranking 10th overall last year, 1st in big time throw rate, and 8th in uncatchable pass rate. I think this one safely goes over the total which you would have expected to be lower with these two BIG 10 teams. Also may sprinkle some on Purdue at +4 is a strong lean for me but laying off.

    Indiana/Illinois Under 45 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    I hate Friday night action but couldn’t say no to the numbers screaming a low scoring affair between these two teams. Both teams have new QBs, both of which are rated extremely poorly with Indiana’s new Connor Bazalek coming from Missouri last year ranking 56th overall in PFF, 57th in big time throw rate, 57th in uncatchable pass rate, and 63rd in average depth of target - he is not a deep threat and you better believe Illinois’s defense will scheme defensively knowing this. For Illinois we have Tommy Devito who may be even worse - he got benched last year after the first 3 games and was hurt after the 4th game in 2020 - so we don’t have much PFF stats on those years. In 2019, the last year he started a significant amount of the stats on the season for Syracuse - he ranked 117th amongst all QBs and struggled in every facet of PFF grading. Both offenses struggled at big plays with Indiana ranking 128th according to Athlon’s Explosiveness rankings and Illinois ranking 114th. Both defenses are stout and don’t give up a lot of big plays with Illinois being better last season ranking 37th in explosive play allowed and Indiana 74th. Both teams defenses have at least 6 starters returning with at least 50% of their total tackles from last year. Both defenses are well coached and strong tacklers - with Illinois ranking 16th in tackling and Indiana ranking 26th. Both defensive FEI numbers and PFF ranks from last year show heavy leans to the under with Illinois defense outranking the Indiana offense by an average of 80 ranks across all categories. Both offenses will be breaking in a lot of new players with Illinois ranking 84th in % of yards returning and Indiana ranking 106th in % of yards returning. The first one to 3 scores should win this one.

    Utah ML (-141) Risking 1.41 units to win 1 units
    Hate betting a PAC 12 team going cross country to face off an SEC team but love this matchup. Utah’s offense should be the real deal with Cam Rising and 76% of their total yards on offense returning. Their offensive line was one of the most improved units over the season last year - having rushed for 169 yard per game and 9 sacks allowed in their first 5 games - then finishing the season averaging 243 rushing yards per game with just four sacks allowed over the last 9 games (RISING UP!). Four lineman return with starting experience from that unit that ended the season in the top 20 of almost all line yard categories. Cam Rising also has the best two TE combo in the league returning from last season ranking 4th and 7th for overall TEs in PFF. For UF, we have new starter Anthony Richardson who can run the ball better than he can throw the ball - don’t expect him to be able to lead this green offense that only return 32% of their total yards from last season. We also have a strong coaching mismatch - as Whittingham I have rated as one of the best, especially in road openers where he’s 7-1-1 ATS since 2013 and 4-1 ATS against current SEC foes. He has been with the same coordinators for many years and I think they have a very good plan, and ability to execute it with the chance to win the PAC 12 this season - as they are my favorite. UF for some reason hired Bill Napier - I have him ranked as a C- coach as he only had success as Louisiana Lafayette over the last 4 years, and was only mediocre as a coordinator in his various other roles which rarely involved anything relevant to any team. His coordinators are equally inexperienced and I expect them to have a very rough year - like the oddsmakers suggest with only 6 wins for their over/under on the season. Take Utah on the ML as -2.5 was -130 on my book so just in case its worth the extra .20 sense for the 2.5 points on the ML. Lock in now as it will probably drop by gametime. Only one I have locked in for Saturday so far.

  3. #3
    A Quant
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    Good luck this season.

  4. #4
    Smutbucket
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    Thanks Quant! Here's the last 10 years of picks all can be found posted on these forums

    Dapper-Dan-Picks-Life-Time-Total22

  5. #5
    svsooner
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smutbucket View Post
    Thanks Quant! Here's the last 10 years of picks all can be found posted on these forums

    Dapper-Dan-Picks-Life-Time-Total22
    Dapper,

    Do you have any leans/strong leans on the total(s) for the Backyard Brawl and/or C Mich/Ok St?
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/24/2022


  6. #6
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks

    Week 1 so far: (2-0) + 2 units
    Season YTD: (2-2) -0.18 units

    Week 1 Adds:
    Rutgers/BC Under 48.5 (-120)
    Arkansas -6 (-120)
    UNC +3 (-135)
    NC State -12 (-109)
    Ohio State -16 (-109)
    Also still got UTAH ML (-150) (from last post)


    Writeups:

    Rutgers/BC Under 48.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Two defensive gurus square off in this matchup. Schiano is a long time defensive legend dating back to ‘99 at the U where he led elite defenses and more recently at Ohio State where his defense ranked 3rd in ypp in 2016 and 4th in ypp allowed in 2017. I had to do a double-take when I looked at the defensive line stats from last year and just noticed that this Rutgers D-Line was one of the best units in the nation, ranking 7th in line yards, 13th in opportunity rate, 38th in power rating and 8th in stuff rankings. They should feast against a BC offensive line that struggled last season (although very few starters return) they were ranked in the bottom 20% of most line yard categories. Rutgers offensive line last year was even worse on the season ranking in bottom 10% of most categories. On the other side you have Jeff Hafley, new defensive mastermind who coincidentally took over Ohio State's defensive coordinator role and led the nation in ypp allowed in 2019. He has a new offensive coordinator in John McNulty who I have rated very low and only most recently was OC at Rutgers for two years before Schiano arrived where his offense ranked 128th in ypp in 2018 and 124th in 2019. He runs a “power spread” that isn’t very effective. Both teams couldn’t hit a big play if they tried last year with Rutgers ranking 123rd in explosiveness and Boston College ranking 94th. Both defensive FEI #’s from last season show strong advantages to the defenses that outrank their offensive counterparts by an average of 40 ranks. I love QB Jurkovec but he was not the same after his injury last season - will he return to his normal form pre-injury?



    Arkansas -6 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    I love finding me these Power 5 school vs crap conference matchups with such glaringly obvious strength of schedule mismatches - last year Cincinnati's Sagarin SOS ranked 71st in the league where Arkansas’s ranked 14th. Cincinnati also has one of the least experienced teams returning with starting QB Ridder leaving and team ranking 103rd in the experience chart. Their defense that ranked in Top 10 of almost every PFF category (with that easy schedule) is nearly all gone - with only 27% of their tackles returning from last year. KJ Jefferson is one of the most electric QBs returning and ranks 13th overall in PFF and should only improve from his great numbers last season with Kendal Briles together again for the 3rd year. They will run plenty of RPO and play action passing that will keep this green Bearcat defense guessing. I have Arkansas’s coaching staff very highly rated, especially now since they are all entering their 3rd year together. Luke Fickell lost his OC from last year and promoted a new 1st time play caller offensive coordinator - Gino Guiduglio. He’s going to have to work with new sophomore starter Evan Prater who only has 11 pass attempts in his career in blowouts last year. I think this Cincinnati team will definitely lose a step from last year and I think Arkansas wins this one comfortably.



    UNC +3 (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit
    Again we have the SOS mismatch as App State’s ranked 91st last year while UNC’s ranked 55th. North Carolina’s defense certainly struggled last year, but they had a ton of injuries, and now a much more experienced crew and new DC who’s switching them to a 3 man front. They also brought in many highly recruited DLs. UNC’s defense will look very different than last year and I think the strength and athleticism of the P5 team will get some push against this App State team who have typically out-schemed their cupcake schedule opponents. Satterfield was the architect behind it all, building up that program and scheme (to take advantage of cupcakes he faced). Then Drinkwitz took over in 2019 leading to their best year ever. Then Shawn Clark got promoted within the program to HC without much experience without App State. They have been regressing every year since and this year bring in a new OC, Kevin Barbay - who’s only had 2 years experience as an OC - at two crap schools. We have a new QB at UNC too Drake Maye, who can do damage with his legs and racked up 314 yards on the ground and another 300 in the air completing 80% last week against Florida AM (ok ok not best competition). I was surprised to see UNC a dog - but when you consider App State is 5-0 ATS against their last power 5 and their recent notoriety for being the small school upset team (and beating a crappy UM last year) - the line I think gives some value to UNC. Esp



    NC State -12 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    This will be short - sorry I didn't have much time this morning. NC State has one of the best returning defenses in the league, ranking 4th with 87% of their tackles returning from last year that put up some amazing numbers. They were 29th in overall PFF - equally good in the run game ranking 21st and coverage ranking 38th. Their line was well above average and didn't let anyone get any short yardage off them as they ranked 1st in power success rank and 5th in stuff rankings. App State shouldn’t be able to run the ball on 3rd and short and pick up the 1st downs against this defense. NC State's offense also returns 7 starters with a cohesive coaching unit as they are all entering their 3rd year together, and Devin Leary should have a huge season like last year's incredible numbers where he ranked 18th overall in PFF. He also sports the 3rd highest big throw rate and 1st in turnover worthy play rate - he didn't make many mistakes with 35 TD’s with only 5 INTs last season. ECU returns a good amount of starters on both sides of the ball but again we have the SOS mismatch as ECU is part of the AAC - a much easier conference then the ACC. I think NC State covers by at least 2 TDs.

    Ohio State -16 (-109) No writeup sorry.

  7. #7
    Smutbucket
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    Quote Originally Posted by svsooner View Post
    Dapper,

    Do you have any leans/strong leans on the total(s) for the Backyard Brawl and/or C Mich/Ok St?
    Yes I posted that one the day of. Pitt Pushed

  8. #8
    Smutbucket
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    DAPPER DAN PICKS
    2022 - NCAAF Week 2
    Week 1 results: 5-3 (+1.41 units)
    Season YTD: 5-5 (-0.77 units)

    Been shadowboxing all week - let’s go bookies. Card isn’t great again so won’t be a bunch of plays - but we continue to dig….this is what we got so far. (Also will be adding last week’s results at the end of every new week’s post to aid in tracking)

    2022 - NCAAF Week 2:
    UCF -5.5 (-107)
    Pittsburgh +7.5 (-125)
    Virginia +4.5 (-107)


    UCF -5.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
    I was a UCF Knight but I was never a big fan of the Knights as I was born and raised a Miami Hurricane and UCF was a non power 5 school and 0-11 in my first year of college (take me back to 2004). This is the most excited I’ve ever been about a UCF team as this coaching/QB combination may be one of my favorites in college football. Chip Lindsey re-unites as offensive coordinator with Gus Malzahn - he was an offensive analyst for Auburn back in 2013 when Nick Marshall rushed for 1000 yards, passed for 2000 yards, and averaged 40 points per game. He was OC at Auburn from 2017-18 but had Jarret Sitdham (not a runner AT ALL) as his QB during his role at play-calling duties. This year, they have the fastest QB in college football, PLUMLEE! You may remember him from the 2019 Ole Miss team who took over when Matt Corral got injured in his rookie season. I always thought Plumlee was more of a threat then Corral but Corral took back over the starting position in 2020 (and COVID happened) and we had all but almost forgotten about ole Plumlee! He transfers to UCF to take over the starting position. He will be much more experienced and well-versed in QB duties as he was originally recruited to be a DB, because of his speed and athleticism. He will probably run for 200 yards against this Louisville defense that really struggled with Syracuse last week. Louisville’s defense graded out in PFF horribly in every stat, just like last season's team - ranked 96th overall, 108th in coverage, 75th in run defense and 101st in tackling. This UCF defense also has reasons to get excited about. Their secondary ranked 21st overall in coverage last year and returned all the key players from that unit. In week 1, UCF’s defense ranked 6th overall, 14th in pass rush, 43rd in coverage, 6th in rush defense and 16th in tackling. I think UCF runs away with this one, I love it but only doing one unit as the “UCF” name may be affecting my judgment.

    Pittsburgh +7.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    Was shocked by this number and had to lock this in early in the week as I loved anything with a TD. Is ESPN hyping up this Tenn team again? I don’t care that they have a ton of “experience” ranking 13th overall in PS - th at’s a bad thing when you put up the type of numbers they did last season (especially on defense). According to FEI, Tennessee’s defense ranked in the bottom 20% of most categories - being outranked by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. Despite Tennessee’s great offensive numbers last year, Pittsburgh’s defense on average outranks their FEI counterpart on offense for Tennessee. I wrote about how stacked this Pitt team is in the trenches in last week's write-up, this will be a big problem for Tennessee who struggled on both sides of the ball on the line of scrimmage. Hooker was running for his life last year all season and ranked 123rd in sack rate - which will be extremely problematic against a Pit defense that returns mostly intact and ranked 3rd in sack % and 20th in defensive pressure rate. Pitt had 5 sacks and 9 TFLs last year when these two teams squared off for the first time in history. Last year - it really threw off Hendon Hooker’s passing game as he received his lowest PFF of the year at 39.4. Pitt ended up winning that game by 7 and I think this will be another close one - although not confident enough in Pitt to take the ML - I’ll sure take 7 points. If it’s a trap then so be it but definitely one that stuck out to me like a sore thumb when glancing over the card - and numbers concur.

    Virginia +4.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
    I’ll gladly take 4.5 points with one of the best QBs returning in Brennan Armstrong - ranked 4th overall in PFF, 6th in Big time throw rate, 13th in uncatchable pass rate and 7th in average depth of target. And his TOP 3 receivers all return with a whole new offensive scheme, Tony Elliot leading his first team as a head coach - after being raised under the wing of Dabo Swinney - having been at Clemson since 2011 and co-oc since 2015. They were the most explosive offense in the league last year according to PFF. Their biggest question marks are on the offensive line as its entirely new and struggled in week 1 - but Illinois isn’t the type to bring pressure or havoc, ranking 88th last year in havoc rate, 73rd in pressure, and currently grade out to 80th in pass rush against two crap teams, Wyoming and Indiana. Illinois' offense isn’t explosive and ranked 94th last year (with a better QB) so I don’t see them pulling away from UVA in this one and UVA could win outright - sprinkle some on the ML.


    Week 1:
    Pittsburgh -7 (-125) P
    Penn State/Purder over 53 (-109) W
    Indiana/Illinois Under 45 (-109) W
    Utah ML (-141) L
    Rutgers/BC Under 48.5 (-120) W
    Arkansas -6 (-120) W
    UNC +3 (-135) W
    NC State -12 (-109 ) L
    Ohio State -16 (-109) L
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: PickoMoff

  9. #9
    Smutbucket
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    whoopos

  10. #10
    PickoMoff
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    Thank for the write. I'm liking the UCF pick.

    Quote Originally Posted by Smutbucket View Post
    DAPPER DAN PICKS
    2022 - NCAAF Week 2
    Week 1 results: 5-3 (+1.41 units)
    Season YTD: 5-5 (-0.77 units)

    Been shadowboxing all week - let’s go bookies. Card isn’t great again so won’t be a bunch of plays - but we continue to dig….this is what we got so far. (Also will be adding last week’s results at the end of every new week’s post to aid in tracking)

    2022 - NCAAF Week 2:
    UCF -5.5 (-107)
    Pittsburgh +7.5 (-125)
    Virginia +4.5 (-107)


    UCF -5.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
    I was a UCF Knight but I was never a big fan of the Knights as I was born and raised a Miami Hurricane and UCF was a non power 5 school and 0-11 in my first year of college (take me back to 2004). This is the most excited I’ve ever been about a UCF team as this coaching/QB combination may be one of my favorites in college football. Chip Lindsey re-unites as offensive coordinator with Gus Malzahn - he was an offensive analyst for Auburn back in 2013 when Nick Marshall rushed for 1000 yards, passed for 2000 yards, and averaged 40 points per game. He was OC at Auburn from 2017-18 but had Jarret Sitdham (not a runner AT ALL) as his QB during his role at play-calling duties. This year, they have the fastest QB in college football, PLUMLEE! You may remember him from the 2019 Ole Miss team who took over when Matt Corral got injured in his rookie season. I always thought Plumlee was more of a threat then Corral but Corral took back over the starting position in 2020 (and COVID happened) and we had all but almost forgotten about ole Plumlee! He transfers to UCF to take over the starting position. He will be much more experienced and well-versed in QB duties as he was originally recruited to be a DB, because of his speed and athleticism. He will probably run for 200 yards against this Louisville defense that really struggled with Syracuse last week. Louisville’s defense graded out in PFF horribly in every stat, just like last season's team - ranked 96th overall, 108th in coverage, 75th in run defense and 101st in tackling. This UCF defense also has reasons to get excited about. Their secondary ranked 21st overall in coverage last year and returned all the key players from that unit. In week 1, UCF’s defense ranked 6th overall, 14th in pass rush, 43rd in coverage, 6th in rush defense and 16th in tackling. I think UCF runs away with this one, I love it but only doing one unit as the “UCF” name may be affecting my judgment.

    Pittsburgh +7.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    Was shocked by this number and had to lock this in early in the week as I loved anything with a TD. Is ESPN hyping up this Tenn team again? I don’t care that they have a ton of “experience” ranking 13th overall in PS - th at’s a bad thing when you put up the type of numbers they did last season (especially on defense). According to FEI, Tennessee’s defense ranked in the bottom 20% of most categories - being outranked by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. Despite Tennessee’s great offensive numbers last year, Pittsburgh’s defense on average outranks their FEI counterpart on offense for Tennessee. I wrote about how stacked this Pitt team is in the trenches in last week's write-up, this will be a big problem for Tennessee who struggled on both sides of the ball on the line of scrimmage. Hooker was running for his life last year all season and ranked 123rd in sack rate - which will be extremely problematic against a Pit defense that returns mostly intact and ranked 3rd in sack % and 20th in defensive pressure rate. Pitt had 5 sacks and 9 TFLs last year when these two teams squared off for the first time in history. Last year - it really threw off Hendon Hooker’s passing game as he received his lowest PFF of the year at 39.4. Pitt ended up winning that game by 7 and I think this will be another close one - although not confident enough in Pitt to take the ML - I’ll sure take 7 points. If it’s a trap then so be it but definitely one that stuck out to me like a sore thumb when glancing over the card - and numbers concur.

    Virginia +4.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
    I’ll gladly take 4.5 points with one of the best QBs returning in Brennan Armstrong - ranked 4th overall in PFF, 6th in Big time throw rate, 13th in uncatchable pass rate and 7th in average depth of target. And his TOP 3 receivers all return with a whole new offensive scheme, Tony Elliot leading his first team as a head coach - after being raised under the wing of Dabo Swinney - having been at Clemson since 2011 and co-oc since 2015. They were the most explosive offense in the league last year according to PFF. Their biggest question marks are on the offensive line as its entirely new and struggled in week 1 - but Illinois isn’t the type to bring pressure or havoc, ranking 88th last year in havoc rate, 73rd in pressure, and currently grade out to 80th in pass rush against two crap teams, Wyoming and Indiana. Illinois' offense isn’t explosive and ranked 94th last year (with a better QB) so I don’t see them pulling away from UVA in this one and UVA could win outright - sprinkle some on the ML.


    Week 1:
    Pittsburgh -7 (-125) P
    Penn State/Purder over 53 (-109) W
    Indiana/Illinois Under 45 (-109) W
    Utah ML (-141) L
    Rutgers/BC Under 48.5 (-120) W
    Arkansas -6 (-120) W
    UNC +3 (-135) W
    NC State -12 (-109 ) L
    Ohio State -16 (-109) L

  11. #11
    Smutbucket
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    DAPPER DAN PICKS:
    SEASON YTD: 5-6 (-1.84 UNITS)\


    Week 2 adds: (2 pending)
    South Car/Arkansas Over 53 (-109)
    Wake Forest -12.5 (-110)
    Boston College +3 (-109)
    UF ML (-218)
    Baylor +3.5 (-121)
    Miss. State -10 (-120)



    South Car/Arkansas Over 53 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    South Carolina is going to have a dramatic improvement on offense this year thanks to transfer of #1 QB in Passer Rating in PFF since 2020 - Spencer Rattler (oh no - we might upset some people who don’t like his hair or ‘tude - but we only care about #’s around here). More importantly to this team, he can buy time with his legs - which he’s going to need with this struggling South Carolina offensive line. Both teams love to blitz and bring pressure, but that will leave guys open down field if these QBs can buy a little time - and both of these QBs are elite at doing that. Nine other starters return on offense for South Carolina and lots of weapons who will only improve with the much better QB play. Arkansas’s secondary struggled a bit last week against a much worse Cinn team - giving up 24 points and grading out to 92nd in coverage, they also struggled at tackling ranking 87th. Arkansas should be able to RUN the ball for 6 yards per carry against this South Carolina front that allowed Georgia State to run for 5 yards per carry against them last week. I don’t see either offense being slowed down much and I think we have a low number thanks to how awful South Carolina’s offense was with the rotating QB situation but it has now been solidified with a top tier starter.
    Wake Forest -12.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Sam Hartmans out - better jump on Vandy? Have you seen his back-up? Mitch Griffis, although 2 inches shorter - looks like the genetic clone of Hartman and was throwing darts week 1 - all be it, against VMI but still he’s athletic, can maneuver the pocket with his eye down field, and has great accuracy on his deep ball. Is Vanderbilt’s defense much better than VMI’s? Not based on last season's results. These two teams return almost fully in-tact from last year with each team ranking 34th and 38th in the PS experience chart. That isn’t a good thing if you put up the type of numbers Vandy put up last year - literally in the bottom 5% of every FEI category on both sides of the ball. It’s not much of a surprise when you look a little closer at their coaching staff - Clark Lea managed a great defense for 3 years at Notre Dame but aside from that he was always just a LB coach. Their OC, Joey Lynch - is even worse as I dug into his past offenses ypp (yards per play) and uncovered more 3 digit rankings than 2 digit rankings (ranking 100th + or worse) - and these were all at crap schools, Ball State and Colorado State. On the other side of the sidelines we have a much established coaching staff that has broken all kinds of records for Wake Forest and turned the 3-9 program into an 11-3 team last year. Dave Clawson is entering his 9th year at Wake and 5 years now with Broyles Award finalist OC Warren Ruggiero. They are in the top 20 of almost every offensive FEI category from last year and averaged 41 points per game. I think this line is a little low on account that Hartman is out and Vanderbilt averaged 52 ppg in their first two games but that was against Hawaii and Elon so, lol. Wake Forest wins in blow-out fashion on the road.
    Boston College +3 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    I love Boston College this week after a hard fought loss to a really tough defense at Rutgers. Brent Pry is the new head coach at Vtech and although he had some great defenses - his successes were always when he was with James Franklin and is now branching out on his own for the first time in a decade, but doesn’t seem to have a great supporting cast as his OC is Tyler Bowen - who has relatively no experience in play-calling at this level and was a TE coach last year for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He has Marshall QB transfer Grant Wells, who although is very experienced (in the Sun Belt), still struggles with accuracy - his PFF ranks from last year are 69th in passer grade, 33rd in big time throw rate, 78th in turnover worthy play rate, and 80th in uncatchable pass rate, 92nd in average depth of target. Vtech’s defense was their weakness last year, giving up a lot of big plays ranking 98th in defensive explosive play allowed, much of that same defense returns - ranking 18th in % of tackles from last year returning. They weren’t particularly good at applying pressure either, ranking 77th in defensive pressure rate, 74th in havoc rate, and 80th in sack %. I think Boston College is being a little undervalued as people don’t realize last years Boston College team really struggled in games where Jurkovec didn't start as Dennis Grosel is a big drop-off in talent from Jurkovec who missed 7 games last year and seemed to be playing hurt when he returned. Take Boston College and buy up to 3 if you have to.
    Florida ML (-218) Risking 2.18 units to win 1 units
    I don’t normally bet on these big favorites but I love this one. Honestly, I think UF beats them down after last year's upset victory (for only the 2nd time in 4 years but have played 28 times together in history and only two wins) but want to play it safe and end the night with a nice low stress favorite (I hope). UF’s Richardson looked like a Top 5 QB against Utah’s defense last week - they looked really good. He should shred this Kentucky secondary who lost 3 players to the transfer portal. Kentucky is also getting a new OC as first year OC Liam Coen goes back to the NFL after only spending 1 year down at NCAAF level calling plays and did a damn good job for Kentucky last year so that will be a change for this team. Short write-up.
    Baylor +3.5 (-121) Risking 1.21 units to win 1 units
    BYU returns almost their entire defense (ranking 1st in % tackles returning) but they weren’t particularly good last season with an average ranking of 88th across all FEI categories, 93rd in all line yard categories, and 71st overall in PFF. Baylor is much less experienced but I have a huge edge to Baylor in the coaching staff as Dave Aranada has proven to be one of the best defensive minds in the game turning this 2-7 team in 2020 (his first year) to 12-2 last year with a surprisingly studly defense for the BIG 12, ranking 23rd in overall PFF, 31st on average across all FEI categories, and especially on the line where they ranked 12th in defensive line yards, 15th in opportunity rate, and 19th in power success rate. This is coaching and defensive scheming and you can see those same trends throughout all of Dave Aranada’s programs whether it was at Utah State, Wisconsin or LSU. On offense, they have another potent dual threat QB leading in Blake Shapen who saw some starts last year and always looked impressive. OC Jeff Grimes was coincidentally the OC at BYU from ‘18-’20 but that doesn't dissuade us from this pick. BYU’s o-line, although coming back with good numbers from last year, haven't faced a front like this Baylor one and their SOS every year shows a big drop off from Baylor as they are independent - ranking 63rd in overall SOS last season and Baylor ranks 20th. I hate how we have a #9 team vs a #21 team and were getting 3.5 points (trap city) and I didn't even realize til after I locked in as I seldom pay attention to those rankings but let's fire away for 1 unit.
    Miss. State -10 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Late night special - lots of reasons to like this one from the coaching, to returning experience, to conference matchups as we love SEC vs PAC 12 teams (where SEC is 14-7 against in last decade) and the SOS and talent mismatch is obvious, Sagarin's rankings agree from last year as Miss State was ranked 41st after the season and Arizona ranked 118th. Miss. State is entering its 3rd year with Mike Leach where he already improved the team's scoring by 7 ppg from year 1-2 as he implemented his system. He has one of the most accurate QBs in college football returning who sports #1 in turnover play worthy rate and 5th in uncatchable pass rate. Zach Arnett is also in his 3rd year as DC where he improved the unit last year and led the #8 ranked defense in ypp at SD state back in 2019 before coming here. Not only does Miss. State sports the much better numbers and conference from last year, they are much more experienced - ranking 8th in PS’s experience chart and Arizona ranks 60th. Arizona has second year head coach Jedd Fisch who has plenty of pro experience but not at the college level and it showed in his last year's team with a 1-11 record. He has Brennan Carroll as his OC and can’t help but believe this guy’s dad (Pete Carroll) and family name got him this coaching gig. He was always just a “run game coordinator” at Seattle for many years and last year was his first year calling plays ever, where he led this Arizona team to 99th ranking in ypp. Don Brown, their awesome DC also left after only one year and again another fill-in with Johnny Nansen who has never called plays for a defense either. Does Mike Leach ever take his foot off the gas? I think we can handle a 10 point win for the SEC team.

  12. #12
    Smutbucket
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    DAPPER DAN PICKS:
    WEEK 2 RESULTS: 4-5 (-2.62 UNITS)
    SEASON YTD: 9-10 (-3.39 UNITS)
    Write-ups are short - I’ve had a limited amount of time to look into stats this week and there’s not much to pull from this early on season. After at least 4 games is when a lot of the advanced stats start coming out....
    Week 3:
    Indiana -6 (-120)
    South Carolina +24.5 (-109)
    Nebraska +11 (-109)
    California +11 (-112) 1.5x
    California ML (+350) .25x
    Penn State/Auburn Under 48 (-120)
    BYU/Oregon Over 58 (-112)
    Kansas +8 (-112)
    LSU/Miss State Over 53 (-109)
    UCF -9 (-109) .5x
    Miami +7 (-125)
    Week3:
    Indiana -6 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    A bit of a tin-foil hat special as the line screams to take WKU (and I see some of you cappers already did), especially since it was a close game last year that was decided by only 3 points. But more importantly this WKU team is not the same as it was last year as not only does it have just 4 returning starters on offense (3 lineman and a WR) but also lost it’s OC Zach Kittley who designed the system that took that offense to explosive levels. WKU has had two cupcake games and they are about to come down to reality against a Power 5 team. Even last year, WKU’s defense was a bit of a joke, allowing 29.4 ppg and often got in shootouts with everyone but they couldn't keep pace with the offense. Indiana likes to play fast and throw a lot too so they better keep up with Indiana but I don’t see that happening and expect a big easy win from Indiana.
    South Carolina +24.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    This is just too many points against The Rattler. I’m not convinced Georgia is going to be as good this year with the amount of talent they lost on defense. They rank 119th with % of tackles returning from last year and so what they shut-out a total green Oregon team, with all new coaches, and Bo Nix who’s proven easy to rattle? Is Stetson Bennett good? Never really impressed me and was always more of a “game manager” type that lacked the pure talent you see out of other QBs at elite schools. I think this non-experienced Georgia defense gets caught a little off guard by the dynamic ability of Spencer Rattler. He had quite a few other impressive throws and dropped passes on deep balls that could have easily gone for 6 in last week’s matchup too. They covered last years spread and we expect them to again this year because the markets over-valuing Georgia.
    Nebraska +11 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    Not too worried about Scott Frost being fired as in this situation where he didn’t call plays on either side of the ball - I don’t see how that will affect them that much, only motivate as it seems to always happen in college ball after a firing. Oklahoma’s had two soft teams and have yet to be tested with the new coaching staff. I think their defense will struggle with Casey Thompson who currently ranks 12th best in pass PFF, and his receivers ranking 25th in PFF - giving a stronger advantage against an Oklahoma secondary that ranks 68th in PFF coverage. You would think Oklahoma’s advantage in the passing game would be larger but their QB only ranks 32nd and receivers 41st and they will be facing a Nebraska secondary that ranks 52nd. Oklahoma’s defense has had trouble tackling ranking 84th in the nation (in true BIG 12 fashion). Nebraska’s football program consistently plays tougher competition being in the BIG 10 and last years team ranked 2nd in SOS rankings. I think this will be a close hard fought one possession type game and worst case scenario we catch a backdoor.
    California +11 (-112) Risking 1.68 units to win 1.5 units
    California ML (+350) Risking .25 units to win .88 units
    Biggest bet of the week - Granted Cal hasn’t played much competition but the PFF ranks for these teams show Cal should be the favorite and Notre Dame is leveraging on its name alone. Notre Dame’s new defense has been getting shredded, ranking 113th in overall defense, 104th in coverage and 109 in run defense in PFF. Cal’s 31st ranked run offense should have a field day. Notre Dame’s offense is the bigger concern considering how bad the backup QB, Drew Pryne looked in relief of Tyler Buchner - who was 18/32 for 6.3 ypp and 2 INTs against Marshall before his injury. I can’t imagine their offense all of a sudden comes to life and they rank 108th overall offense, 92nd in pass block, 83rd in receiving, 105th in the run game and 73rd in run blocking. Cal’s defense, although struggling the last two years (probably 50% backups as covid regs extra hard out there) should return to true Wilcox form and be a tough defense like he usually leads. We have a strong cohesive coaching unit on one side and totally new, reeling coaching staff on the other side. All the numbers show the wrong team is favored, I got this for 1.5x units and a sprinkled .25x unit on the ML. Good luck all
    Penn State/Auburn Under 48 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Really excited about this Big10/SEC match-up, kept going back and forth on what side to take before finally deciding on the under. These two teams faced off last year where Penn State won 28-20. This is a revenge game for Auburn at home and it will be a loud and hostile environment for Penn State’s offense but they haven't faced a defense like this one yet this season. Auburn’s defense currently ranks 12th overall in PFF, 4th in pass rush, 48th in coverage, 20th in rush defense and 33rd in tackling. Last year, Penn State struggled to get any push at the line of scrimmage rushing for only 90 yards on 33 carries - expect much of the same this year as 3 out of 4 starters for Auburn on the line return. Auburn’s been struggling on offense and alternating QBs always seems to work out poorly and only resorted to when one QB lacks the true talent and ability to lead. Finley may be one of the most awkward moving 6’7 QBs in football and his RUN grades and HandsFumble grades are extremely bad going back to his starting days at LSU. Auburn should run a lot though with old Tank Bigsby and churn away 3-4 yard gains but new DC Manny Diaz should bring in some run blitz wrinkles this season. I think this is going to be a great low scoring hard hitting game to watch.
    BYU/Oregon Over 58 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
    Both teams love to throw. Last week Baylor just decided to run the ball 52 times against BYU. Oregon will throw much more and expose the secondary of this BYU team. The PFF ranks show strong leans to both offenses in every position. BYU’s offense outranks it’s defensive counter positions by an average of 72 ranks across all PFF categories. Oregon’s offense outrank by an average of 48 ranks. Oregon’s defense currently ranks 122nd in tackling which is always fun to have an over on in a game like that. Despite the media talking up this “physical” BYU defense, the PFF numbers show they are just as bad as last year (and same returning). QB for Oregon - Bo Nix should do a lot better in the PAC 12 as he always struggled with pressure but this isn’t the SEC and he can do some damage with his legs. Jaren Hall should feast too and their offense is really hard to stop as they are very well rounded and can attack you in so many ways, deep, short, QB run. Both are veterans and should have big nights in what we hope is a high scoring affair.
    Kansas +8 (-112) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Lots of reasons to love this game from the PFF numbers and the SOS mismatch. Kansas, being in the SEC consistently better competition than Houston - ranking 9th overall last year in SOS where Houston ranks 102nd. The PFFs for Kansas this year show remarkably good grades - although in only 2 games, West Virginia is respectable and they upset them last week. Their offense has been explosive since Jalon Daniels took over the starting role last year for the the final last 3 games, including the big upset over Texas where they scored 57. They scored 55.5 in the first two games this year and I don’t see a Houston team keeping this to a more than one possession game.
    LSU/Miss State Over 53 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    Was really surprised how low this number was when I started leaning on the over after looking into it. Both teams love to score. Both coaches are high risk, high reward coaching styles which usually translates to more points whether it be a trick play or a 4th down attempt. Both teams love to throw and Will Rogers may be one of the most accurate QBs in the game which is a dangerous combination with Mike Leach. Jayden Daniels is squirrely enough to extend drives and their offense should see some life with RB John Emery returning after a two game suspension to start the season. Lots of points in this one!
    UCF -9 (-109) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
    Half a unit - no writeup. I hate Willie Taggart and N.Kosi Perry so obvious pick for me just based off the coaching/starting QBs.
    Miami +7 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    We live and die by Miami. If you’ve been following these write-ups the last 10 years, we love to bet on them (and lose frequently) but this time is different - because it's my brother's Birthday (die hard Miami fan too)! This is our year. And I’ll keep this write-up short and sweet but ya Miami’s PFF ranks show HEAVY advantages on both sides of the ball (ok not many games played) but Miami offense outranks TexasAM defense by an average of 87 ranks and Miami’s defense outranks TexasAM offense by an average of 61 ranks. Sure, we’ve had our struggles in the big games but that was a different coaching staff (and coaching staff before, and coaching staff before, and coaching staff before) This one will be different and they have the talent to do so against a Texas A&M team that's swapping out their starting QB as they lost to App state last week. Did I mention we were going to win this outright? Haha, definitely worth a little ML action.
    Week 2 Results:
    UCF -5.5 (-107) L
    Pittsburgh +7.5 (-125) W
    Virginia +4.5 (-107) L
    South Car/Arkansas Over 53 (-109) W
    Wake Forest -12.5 (-110) W
    Boston College +3 (-109) L
    UF ML (-218) L
    Baylor +3.5 (-121) L
    Miss. State -10 (-120) W

  13. #13
    Smutbucket
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    Week 3 Results: 4-7( -3.67 units)
    Season YTD: 13-17 (-7.06 units)

    Sorry for the rough season so far fellas but we are working on turning it around. After this week - many of the advanced stats from FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS start to take effect so it’s easier to find edges….Love this card but square as hell. :-)

    Week 4:
    Wake Forest +7.5 (-125)
    Kansas -6.5 (-125)
    Missouri/Auburn Under 51.5 (-109)
    Michigan State +3 (-112)
    UNC ML (-135)
    Arizona +4 (-120)
    Iowa/Rutgers Under 34.5 (-121)
    Arkansas +3 (-130) 1.5x
    Stanford/Wash Over 60 (-109)

    Wake Forest +7.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    Clemson has had relatively easy wins against Wake for the last 10 years (much with the same coaching staffs too). But this past year Clemson lost Venables and you gotta believe this mostly in-tact Wake Forest team from last year has this home game circled on their calendar and will have a great game plan for - where Clemson will overlook Wake as they always win and have all their other big ACC contenders on deck, including #12 NC State next week. Although neither teams have faced tough competition (WF slightly harder) - Wake also has the much better PFF numbers. Had to do a double-check and ensure Wake’s were correct but they currently sport #4 in overall defense, #1 in pass rush, #13 in coverage, and #21 in run defense. You would think these would be Clemson's defensive numbers but Clemson's only #17 overall, 38th in passrush, 9th in coverage and 48th in run defense. We also have the much better veteran QB Hartman who has seen this defense a lot and has been improving each time in facing it. Wakes had trouble with havoc in the backfield against Clemson, as long as we can avoid that I think this is a close 7 point game for the first time in a decade.

    Kansas -6.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    Is Kansas this year's Cinderella team? Their 55-42 win over WVU is looking more impressive after WVU put the beat down on Vtech in primetime. Last year Duke beat down on Kansas 52-33 but that was before newly developed super-star Jalon Daniels took over the offense. He’s completing 67% of his passes for an average of 8.1 ypa. He has another 237 yards on the ground, averaging almost 9 yards per rushing attempt. He’s a great RPO decision maker and has the speed to hit the sidelines and stretch the field. He has a great set of receivers to throw to ranking 6th in PFF. Duke really hasn’t played anyone this season and ranks 179 in sagarin SOS rankings where Kansas ranks 62nd. Despite Kansas' defense giving up a lot of points, they’ve been stout in the run game ranking 12th in PFF run defense and their tackling sound ranking 13th in PFF. Lance Leoipold has been great at 2nd half adjustments as in the first few games they were down early and came back in 2nd half for big easy wins. I have Lance rated as a B+ coach, as he was able to turn around a Buffalo program (although it took 4 years to implement), and more impressively before that he accumulated a 109-6 record as a head coach in D3 football. An impressive resume but will it translate to the D1 level? It certainly looks like it's catching defenses with their pants down and Duke’s defense is a bottom tier defense and will probably be giving big plays every other drive. Duke’s offensive numbers are impressive this season but against a Temple, NW, and NC A&T? I think their offense might hit some bumps in the road with new coaching staff and not averaging 6 yards per carry like they did in their first 3 games.

    Missouri/Auburn Under 51.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    Auburn will be playing with backup backup freshman QB Robby Ashford as Finley’s hurt. Hopefully Missouri stacks the box as their run defense has been the biggest problem for them and Ashford and Bigsby will get plenty of run calls to keep the clock moving. Auburn has really struggled at protection, being pressured at 62% of dropbacks in the loss to Penn State - it’s the 4th highest pressure rate allowed in a single game in the SEC in the last 5 years. If Missouri can stuff the run and get in obvious passing situations they have been great in the pass rush ranking 14th in PFF. Missouri has also had its own share of offensive line troubles, allowing more TFL’s than any other Power 5 team. Not all sacks, but negative running plays and they average 7.7 of those per game. Both teams are sound tacklers (7th and 44th) and I am always talking about this Auburn defense although Penn State put up some points on them last week busting our under. Both teams are averaging 3 giveaways a game which is a pretty crazy stat - hopefully they come in the red zone. Both teams are heavily penalized, especially Missouri’s offensive line as they alone have had 13 in 3 games, really setting their offense behind the chains. I love a good SEC under.

    Michigan State +3 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
    Minnesota’s team currently sports some amazing numbers but that's because they have faced the 216th worst strength of schedule according to Sagarin (they include FCS). Michigan State on the other hand just faced a really good Washington team. Minnesota lives and dies by the run (accounting for 70% of their plays this season) and they will be running into the teeth of this Mich. State defense that has stuffed everyone they faced this season - holding all 3 opponents to an average of 2.69 yards per carry. Their weakness is their secondary and Minn is not the team to exploit that especially with leading WR, Autman-Bell out now. Despite the soft schedule, Minnesota’s defensive numbers aren’t all that impressive according to PFF as they rank 22nd overall, 19th in coverage, 49th in the run game and 43rd in tackling. Michigan State should continue to get push at the line of scrimmage and their offensive line ranks #1 in run blocking. I’ll take the points at home against a team that has yet to face a true test considering they've only played New Mexico State, Western Illinois and Colorado.

    UNC ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
    I hate betting against Notre Dame as they are usually in the refs pocket but I love the numbers in this one again. I don’t care how bad UNC defense is - have you seen Drew Pyne? His numbers are weirdly pretty decent from last week’s Cal game but looked pretty awful when pressured. Notre Dame has been forced to rely on their run game that hasn’t been effective at all averaging 3.27 yards per carry. Their offense is still in shambles as it ranks 105th overall, 77th in pass blocking, 124th in pass, 100th in receiving, 115th in the run. UNC’s defense, although bad, has been able to apply pressure ranking 9th in the pass rush and tackle well ranking 30th. The bigger mismatch will be when UNC has the ball as UNC’s pass attack has been spot on ranking 17th in the pas and 38th in receiving UNC should move the ball well against this ND defense that ranks 90th in coverage and 98th in the run game - according to PFF. Their one strength is their pass rush but Drake Maye is good at hanging in the pocket and didn’t seem to be affected much by pressure in his first 3 games (against soft competition). We also have a strong special teams advantage as UNC ranks 6th in the nation where ND ranks 115th according to PFF. We also have a much more established coaching staff facing a fresh new unproven one.

    Arizona +4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    No writeup

    Iowa/Rutgers Under 34.5 (-121) Risking 1.21 units to win 1 units
    I don’t care how low you put this number - what we’ve seen from these teams is this will be a classic BIG 10 - first to 17 points wins the game, whether it be by special teams or defensive TD’s - as long as we don’t get 3 of them I think we stay under. The PFF differential is absurdly high in this matchup with Rutgers defense ranking in the top 5 of most categories, they outrank this Iowa’s offense that is in the bottom 5% of almost all categories, by an average of 101 ranks (3 digit differentials are insanely rare). The differential for the Rutgers offense to Iowa defensive counterparts in PFF ranks is almost as bad and heavily favoring the defense - outranking them by an average of 65 ranks. Both teams are great tacklers ranking 6th and 22nd. The odds are certainly in favor of a low scoring game.

    Arkansas +3 (-130) Risking 1.95 units to win 1.5 units
    Was able to snag it at 3 for -130. Shop around but confident this Arkansas squad may just win outright but feel great getting a few points. Already been on them a few times this season and been talking them up. Their weakness is their secondary but Texas AM isnt the team this year to beat you through the air as they've had QB woes and their receivers currently rank 90th and passers rank 120th. Texas AM has also struggled at pass protection ranking 72nd in the league in PFF and 120th in sack% and Arkansas D-line has been great at applying pressure ranking 23rd in the pass rush and 15% in sack % . They’ve also been stuffing the run only allowing opponents to rush for 2.6 yards per carry against them. Arkansas’s offense has been incredibly efficient on 3rd down ranking 13th in the nation facing a Texas AM defense that ranks 80th in 3rd down conv% allowed. Although Arkansas’s defense isn't great at stopping 3rd down conv %, Texas AM has only converted 30% of theirs - ranking 84th in the league. I hate when these games pop out like sore thumbs and see a lot of cappers on them but these numbers and what I’ve seen from these teams are enough for me to take and buy up to 3 if you can get under -135. Biggest bet of the week at 1.5x.

    Stanford/Wash Over 60 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    Both offenses should roll in a high scoring late night PAC 12 special. Stanford has been implementing the “slow mesh” RPO that is effective in the PAC 12 considering D-Lines are non-existent and is catching teams off guard and giving opportunities for holes to open up that are filled with secondaries that aren’t capable of tackling (unlike the SEC or BIG 10) Stanford had a few turnovers inside the 5 yard line last week against USC or woulda had 40 points themselves. Washington secondary is banged up as well. The PFF numbers show strong advantages on both sides of the ball to the offenses with Washington’s offense outranking Stanford's defense by an average of 45 ranks across all positional categories. Especially in the pass game as Washington ranks 13 in pass and 20th in receivers where Stanford ranks 89th in coverage. Stanford's offense outranks Washington’s defense by an average of 24 ranks across all categories and the most in the run game as Washington ranks 89th in PFF. Washington has struggled at tackling too and ranks 87th in the league. Penix was throwing dimes all week last week against Michigan State and he’ll have a much easier time against this PAC 12 secondary. They love to throw the ball and play tempo. Stanford ran 85 plays against USC and possessed the ball for less than 50% of the game -that's a crazy stat but may be more normal this year in this defense-less PAC 12 conference.

    Week 3:
    Indiana -6 (-120) L
    South Carolina +24.5 (-109) L
    Nebraska +11 (-109) L
    California +11 (-112) 1.5 x W
    California ML (+350) .25x L
    Penn State/Auburn Under 48 (-120) L
    BYU/Oregon Over 58 (-112) W
    Kansas +8 (-112) W
    LSU/Miss State Over 53 (-109) L
    UCF -9 (-109) .5x W
    Miami +7 (-125) L

  14. #14
    Smutbucket
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    Week 4 Results: 5-4 (+0.62 units)
    Season YTD: 18-21 (-6.44 units)
    Just barely in the black last week but we’ll take it as we look to turn the momentum in our favor. I was able to get a lot of extra work done in football early this week as the Hurricane shut down most of my other work. Unfortunately advanced line stats were supposed to be released this week but they delayed another week so still no LINE stat comparisons - in years past they didn't release til week 7-8ish so we were really excited when they said they would be out after week 4 but here we are - hoping after this week 5 they will be released. Good luck everyone and may the gambling gods shine a little love on us today. Two 1.5x unit bets.
    Week 5:
    Mich/Iowa Under 42 (-110) 1.5x
    Oklahoma -5.5 (-109)
    T.Tech / K.State Under 57 (-109)
    N. Illinois/Ball State over 59.5 (-107)
    Baylor ML (-135)
    Miss. State ML (-179)
    Virginia +3 (-130) 1.5x
    NC State +7.5 (-125)
    Stanford +17.5 (-120)
    Week 5:
    Mich/Iowa Under 42 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
    Favorite bet of the week. A classic BIG 10 under. Unfortunately we missed the one last week but don’t be fooled by Iowa’s team who put up 27 points against Rutgers last week - more of the points came from Iowa’s defense then it did it’s offense in that one, scoring two TDs. Michigan's offense will not be so haphazard with their possession of the ball and are only averaging .5 giveaways per game, ranking 13th in the nation. Both PFF and FEI numbers light up for the under. Michigan has not played any tough defenses, ranking 176th in the sagarin SOS scale yet their offense is still middle-tiered according to PFF ranking 8th overall, 59th in pass blocking, and 77th in passing. Iowa’s defense is one of the best in the nation, literally ranking 1st in PFF, 20th in pass rush (so we should get plenty of pressure), 6th in coverage, 3rd in rush defense and 6th in tackling. They are in the Top 5 of every FEI defensive category EXCEPT opponent first down rate and opponent busted drive rate - which is actually a good thing for the under as they don’t give up many quick 3 and outs. Their offense is in the bottom 5% of every PFF category and they will have plenty of trouble against a Michigan defense that ranks 2nd overall, 42nd in pass rush, 1st in coverage, 4th in run defense, and 1st in tackling. FEI shows Michigan’s defense outranks Iowa’s offense by an average of 70 ranks across all categories. Take this “obvious” under in a game where the #1 and #2 defense in PFF and the #3 and #4 in yards per play allowed square off and enjoy some good hard hitting and tackling as the game clock churns away without many big plays.
    Oklahoma -5.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    Not only do we have a nice advantage in PFF and FEI but we have a strong advantage in SOS as TCU hasn’t played anyone and ranks 128th in SOS rankings where Oklahoma ranks 48th. TCU’s average PFF rankings look a bit worse when you factor in the SOS. Oklahoma should move the ball at will against TCU and FEI shows a HUGE differential average advantage of 75 ranks across all categories. TCU’s defense has been especially bad on 3rd down, ranking 102nd in the nation. In terms of yards per play, Oklahoma’s defense has been great ranking 17th in the nation, only allowing 3.6 yards per carry (rk #46) and 6 yards per pass (rk 21). OU’s defense have been getting lots of sacks ranking 20th in sack% and that has been a problem for TCU who ranks #106th in sack% allowed. TCU is also one of the most heavily penalized teams in the nation ranking #113th. We also have a strong special teams advantage as Oklahoma ranks 14th in the nation and TCU ranks 109th. Oklahoma should win by more than a TD…
    T.Tech/K.State Under 57 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    Been running the numbers blind (hiding team names) and was surprised to see this noon kick off BIG 12 matchup light up for the UNDER - gut wrenching I know but I like our odds considering what we’ve seen thus far with these two teams and what the numbers say. Every positional PFF category on defense outranks its counter-position on offense on both sides of the ball. Kansas State prefers to run the ball but that's the strength of this T. Tech defense that currently ranks 9th in rush defense. T. Tech prefers to throw the ball but that's the strength of this K. State defense that ranked 23rd in coverage. K. State defense outranks by an average of 45 ranks across all categories and T. Tech defense outranks K. State by an average of 36 ranks. Both teams should get some pressure which has been a problem for T. Tech offense that ranks 101st in pass blocking. Both defenses have been great on 3rd down conv % with K. State ranking 7th and T. Tech ranking 38th. Both offenses have struggled on 3rd down conv% with T. Tech ranking #114th and K. State ranking #98th. Both teams' defense FEI numbers also show strong advantages over each team. Take the under.
    N. Illinois/Ball State over 59.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
    Somehow this MAC conference rivalry has slid under the total the last 4 years (which if giving us some value) but there’s reason to believe it will finally go over in true lack of defense - MACfashion. Both defenses are literally in the bottom 5% of every category in FEI, leaving Northern Illinois outranking Ball State's defense by an average of 69 ranks across all categories and Ball State's defense outranking N. Illinois by an average of 25 ranks - and across all categories. Lombardi sat out last week and hopefully he should be back for this big rivalry game but even if he isn’t the offense is balanced enough and should pick up plenty on the ground as well. Ball State loves to throw the ball and the secondary of N. Illinois has been especially bad, ranking 127th in the nation. Both defenses are poor tacklers ranking 118th and 89th. Both defenses are terrible on 3rd down conv % ranking 125th and 99th. Both defenses are terrible in the red zone scoring % giving up scores in 100% of their opponents red zone opportunities (yes that is ranked last for both). Both teams are heavily penalized ranking 94th and 108th, which hopefully extends our drives. I don’t bet much on MAC football but this was a rare standout in numbers I couldn’t ignore..
    Baylor ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
    Love me this Baylor team, no idea why they came out and were so determined to run against BYU 52 times but hopefully they try and pass more against this Okie State defense that is no longer the same since their DC left and lots of turnover with only 4 returning starters. Okie State’s defense currently rank 110th in coverage according to PFF and #115 in yards per pass allowed and have the 143rd worst SOS in the league. FEI stats also show a strong advantage to Baylor in every stat category by an average of 25 ranks differential and every stat category except THE FEI which they are both deadlocked at 22. We are at home with the better numbers in PFF, coaching staff, and FEI - we take the ML for the team we expect to win this matchup
    Miss. State ML (-179) Risking 1.79 units to win 1 units
    Was initially going to take the points for 1.5 units but then just decided to take the ML as seems like whole world is on Miss State and line moving from 3-4, you know there’s going to be some bad calls going against us and this may be closer than the numbers project but the numbers I look at show strong advantages to Miss State on both sides of the ball. Doesn’t matter what numbers you look at in this one - in FEI and on both sides of the ball Miss. State outranks Texas AM’s by an average of 35 ranks across all categories. The PFF mismatches are even larger with Texas AM’s offense really struggling ranking 100th overall, 83rd in pass blocking, 128th in passing, 99th in receiving, 42nd in rushing and 49th in run blocking. Miss State defense has been well rounded ranking 52nd overall, 23rd in coverage and 38th against the run. They’ve been great on 3rd downs conv% allowed ranking 19th overall - a place where Texas A&M offense has struggled ranking #97th. Miss. State’s offense has been exceleen on 3rd down conv % ranking 29th overall - a place where Texas A&M defense has struggled ranking 83rd. We also have the much more disciplined team as Miss. State ranks #17in the penalties per play and Texas A&M ranks 100th. Last year Miss State was a 7 point dog and came out with the upset on the road. The cowbells will be banging loudly and there is no reason to think they don’t win this one, either by blow-out or a slim margin, they are the better team on paper.
    NC State +7.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    This line is pretty wild when you consider how NC State beat Clemson by 5 last year and the defense of NC state returns mostly the same as well as Clemson’s offense which continues to struggle. I’ve never been impressed with Uialgalelei and think he will continue to struggle against this same secondary (currently ranks 20th in PFF) like he did last year where he went 12 for 26 for 111 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He had one long 37 yard run but aside from that the NC State defensive front bottled up the offense and held to 21 points. The Clemson defense though is nearly completely overturned as well as their decade old leader - Venables. Clemson’s defense currently ranks 28th overall, 73rd in coverage and 17th against the run and that's all with the 112th worst SOS in the league. I have no doubt Leary is going to air it out like he did last year which he did a pretty damn good job of going 32 for 44 for 238 yards, 4 TDs and no INTs. He will see a lot more space this year and I might even sprinkle some on the NC State moneyline.
    Virginia +3 (-130) Risking 1.95 units to win 1.5 units
    Biggest bet of the weekend, love it. Virginia’s biggest weakness is their offensive line but Duke’s not great at applying pressure as they rank #108th in sack % and 91st in the pass rush according to PFF. Still amazed to see Virginia’s essentially the same QB/WR group (top 3 WR return from last year) currently ranked in PFF 131st in Passing and 123rd in Receiving. They finished the 2021 season ranking 10th in Pass and 21st in Receiving. We have to believe improvement comes to those numbers and progresses to last season's results. More shockingly about this matchup is Virginia’s defensive PFF numbers on the season. They’ve been stout, ranking 9th in tackling, 27th overall, 11 in coverage and 56th in the run game. These are a far cry better than Duke’s defensive numbers that rank 117th in tackling, 85th overal, 81st in coverage and 87 in the run game - I always love getting the better defense too. Virginia has won this head 2 head matchups for the last 7 years (should I even mention this or does that mean I’ve jinxed) and I think they win this matchup comfortably. What made this my favorite bet of the week is when I consulted my “consensus stringer” who lives in the underbellies of LasVegas and sees “the good consensus signs” on Virginia. We’ve been working together for 15 years and lately, when he and I agree on a pick, it’s a really good sign for our bet. We juice it up to 2 unit bet with the extra half point just to be safe.
    Stanford +17.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    I just don’t see how a defense that ranks in the bottom 5% of every statistical category possible beats a team by 17. Stanford’s offense has been struggling with the pass rush but that’s not a threat against Oregon. As bad as Stanford's defense has been, they outrank Oregon’s defense in every PFF category except coverage. They faced a very tough Washington and USC offense and their stats are still better, especially in tackling as Stanford ranks 29th and Oregon ranks 101st. We also have a strong special teams advantage as Stanford ranks 44th and Oregon 122nd. We also have a much more disciplined team as Stanford ranks #7th in penalties per play and Oregon ranks 90th. Way too many points and large consensus on Oregon which is always favorable in the 11 pm slot when you’re against the grain. Good luck all
    Week 4:
    Wake Forest +7.5 (-125) W
    Kansas -6.5 (-125) W
    Missouri/Auburn Under 51.5 (-109) W
    Michigan State +3 (-112) L
    UNC ML (-135) L
    Arizona +4 (-120) L
    Iowa/Rutgers Under 34.5 (-121) L
    Arkansas +3 (-130) 1.5x W
    Stanford/Wash Over 60 (-109) W

  15. #15
    Smutbucket
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    DAPPER DAN PICKS:
    WEEK 5 RESULTS: 3-6 (-4.34 UNITS)
    SEASON YTD: 21-27 (-10.87 UNITS)
    Ack Some rough losses last week....Small card and no write-ups.. I have so many things going on outside of football it’s been hard to juggle, especially with the amount of money I’ve been losing betting on these games lately. I need to take a step back and let the dust settle. Lots of new advanced stats started coming out this past week but still this card is awful so good week to go light and come back hard next week. I got these few locked in and that’s it. Good luck all. Lotta season left to turn this around and more games played means more data.

    Week 6:
    Purdue +3 (-105)
    Texas Tech +10 (-125)
    Illinois -3 (-135)
    Miss/Vandy Under 61 (-112)

  16. #16
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:

    Week 6 Results: 1-1-2 (-0.12 units)

    Season YTD: 22-28 (-10.99 units)





    Nothing but business this week. 3 locked in so far - more coming Sat. morning





    Week 7:

    Baylor -3 (-115)

    Illinois +7 (-125)

    Maryland -11.5 (-109)





    Baylor -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

    I like Baylor for a lot of reasons. We have the better defense and coaching staff and I the numbers agree that Baylor should pull off their first win ever at Mountaineer Field. Baylor’s offense outranks WVU’s defensive FEI numbers by an average of 46 ranks across all categories and outranks them significantly in every category except busted drive rate. Baylor’s defense being one of the better units in the league have a much less average differentia to WVU’s offensive numbers. Baylor’s defensive line ranks 18th in line yards, 17th in opportunity rate which WVU should struggle with ranking 31st in line yards and 64th in opportunity rate. The PFF numbers show the biggest edge for Baylor as we have significant advantages on both sides of the ball. WVU's defense has especially struggled ranking 102nd overall, 59th in pass rush, 125th in coverage, and 58th in run defense - leaving Baylor’s offense to outrank them by an average of 52 ranks across those 4 categories. WVU’s defense ranks 123rd in 3rd down conv %, 80th in red zone scoring %, 123rd in yards per pass. In contrast, Baylor’s defense ranks 45th in 3rd down conv %, 38th in red zone scoring %, and 43rd in yards per pass allowed. Baylor’s defense also outranks WVU’s offense by an average of 23 ranks across all PFF categories. Last season Baylor won easily at home 45-20, dominating the line of scrimmage averaging 5.3 yards per carry and holding WVU to only 2.4 yards per carry. I expect a similar outcome this year and Baylor to win by 2 TD’s +.





    Illinois +7 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units

    Going back to Illinois this week after getting the push last week in the 9-6 field goal fest we should have predicted the under in. First, Minnesota has played no one respectable, ranking 143 in Sagarin SOS ranks where Illinois at least ranks 62nd. The numbers still show solid edges to Illinois. Minnesota is a run-first team accounting for 64% of their plays this season but that's the biggest strength of this Illinois defense that ranks 4th in yards per carry allowed - allowing only 2.4 yards per carry and 3rd in PFF rush defense. In line yards Illinois defensive line ranks in the Top 5 of almost every category except sack rate. Although Minnesota’s offensive line is in the Top 15 of every category, they haven’t played this level of defensive competition. Illinois is also a run first team, accounting for 58% of their plays, they rank 35th in rushing and 18th in run blocking in PFF and that's the biggest weakness of this Minn team who ranks 61st in rush defense and allowing 3.9 yards (ranked 53rd) per carry against weaker competition. Last year Illinois was 14 point dogs and pulled off the upset and won by 8, this year they have only improved and have been way more tested then this Minnesota team that had a very disappointing loss last week where they only put up 10 points against Purdue’s defense. Purdue dominated the line of scrimmage only allowing Minnesota to run for 1.9 yards per carry and they ran for 5.9 yards per carry against Minnesota. This Illinois team should control the line of scrimmage too and win this game but we’ll take the 7 points all day.





    Maryland -11.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

    Maryland has strong edges in all 3 stat categories I focus on - FEI, PFF, and Line stats (only side with all 3 edges). In FEI, Maryland outranks Indiana by an average of 30 ranks on both sides of the ball. In Line yards, Maryland’s offense only slightly outranks the Indiana defense at the line of scrimmage by an average of 3 ranks across all categories. Maryland’s defense a lot more so as they outrank by an average of 42 ranks across all categories. Indiana’s offensive line is in the bottom of most categories including ranking 129th in line yards, 128th in opportunity rate and 129th in stuff ranking. Both teams prefer to throw, but the secondary is the weakness of this Indiana team and the secondary of Maryland is their strength. Maryland’s secondary ranks 31st in opponents yards per play allowed and 59th overall in PFF coverage. Indiana’s secondary ranks 101st in yards per pass allowed and 109th in PFF. In PFF we have advantages at every positional stat category with Maryland's offense outranking Indiana’s defense by an average of 70 ranks. Maryland's defense outranks Indiana’s offense by an average of 32 ranks across all categories in PFF. We also have a strong advantage in tackling as Maryland ranks 27th and Indiana ranks 96th as well as special teams as Maryland ranks 60th where Indiana ranks 86th. I'm comfortable with at least a 11 point win on the road here.







    Week 6:

    Purdue +3 (-105) W

    Texas Tech +10 (-125) P

    Illinois -3 (-135) P

    Miss/Vandy Under 61 (-112) L

  17. #17
    Smutbucket
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    Week 7 Adds:
    Michigan -6.5 (-130)
    Arkansas/BYU Over 66 (-120)
    Alabama -8.5 (-110)
    UNC/Duke Over 68 (-110)
    Vtech/Miami under 48 (-110)
    NC State/Syracuse under 43 (-112)
    LSU +3 (-120)

    Michigan -6.5 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
    Love this matchup every year, last year Penn State kept it close but I think this year Michigan will run away with it. Clifford has always struggled with Michigan and dealing with the pressure they are likely to bring (currently ranked 13th in pass rush in PFF). Clifford ranks 83rd overall this season amongst eligible QBs (20% of snaps) and is below average in every PFF category ranking a mid 60’s grade in passing, running and handsfumble grades. When under pressure the numbers get much worse as he drops to 227th in the league and averages in the 40’s (BAD!) in every category. Michigan has new starter JJ McCarthy who took over at QB this season has been hella impressive, completing 78% of his passes for 9.6 yards and 9 TDs with only 1 INT. He ranks 47th amongst eligible QB’s but only because his handsfumble grade is quite poor, otherwise his passing and running numbers are above average. Michigan also has a huge advantage in PFF on both sides of the ball and at the line of scrimmage. Penn State’s defense has been below average ranking 38th overall, 6th in pass rush, 40th in coverage and 96th against the run (not sure why such a bad PFF as other numbers not horrible) and 114th in tackling. Michigan’s 6th ranked offense should put up plenty of points and rack up plenty of yardage on the ground with the #6 ranked rushing attack and 22nd ranked in run blocking. Michigan’s defensive PFF numbers outrank Penn State’s offense by an average of 54 ranks across all categories and they rank #1 in tackling. We also have a strong special teams advantage as Michigan ranks 9th overall and Penn State ranks 63rd. Michigan pulls away in the 2nd half and wins easily.

    Arkansas/BYU Over 66 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Was going back and forth on whether to play Arkansas or the over and decided to play the total - KJ should be back. For Arkansas’s offense - the line stat mismatch is so huge and what we love to see. Their line ranks 22nd in line yards, especially doing well on standard downs where they rank 9th in line yards, 25th in opportunity ran, 35th in power success rank and 46th in stuff rate. Their biggest weakness is their sack rate but that's not a strength of this BYU D-line (rank 65th in sack rate) and they are ranked 119th in line yards, really struggling on standard downs where they rank 93rd, 111th in opportunity rank, and 123rd in stuff ranking. Arkansas’s secondary is awful - ranking 122nd overall in PFF and 108th in tackling. They rank #114th in opponent yards per play. The BYU passing attack loves to airs it out - ranking 37th in passing and 17th in receivers and rank. They rank 29th in yards per pass and an even better 20th in yards per rush - which Arkansas’s defense has really struggled too now ranking #106th! BYU is 33rd in long scrimmage plays over 30 + yards.
    Arkansas is 23rd in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards. Arkansas defense is 131st in long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards. BYU defense is 28th in long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards. But haven't faced a team as multi-dimensional as KJ and this SEC squad - they should average 5 yards per carry and open up this passing game for KJ. TAKE THE OVER!

    Alabama -8.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Missed 7 earlier and decided to wait with all the Tenn love - but the books moved in favor of Tenn so it's a good sign they love that Tenn money right now. The biggest mismatch on this one is on the PFF numbers as Alabama is in the top 10 of almost every category on defense and Tennessee’s defense is in the bottom % of the league, per usual so we believe this is going to be a larger than 7 point victory. Alabama’s defense ranks 3rd overall, 9th in the pass rush, which will be particularly troublesome for Tennessee's offensive line who rank 80th in pass blocking , 12th in coverage, 1st in rushing defense, and 3rd in tackling. A huge difference from Tennessee's 88th ranked overall defense, 117th in coverage, and 31st in rushing defense, and 48th in tackling. Even as explosive as Tennessee's offense has been, this Bama defense out-ranks them in EVERY category and by an average of 45 ranks across all 4 categories. Bama’s offensive differential is larger at 50 ranks per every category! The rivalry name and the hype of Tennessee is keeping this number much lower than it ought to be. Bama wins easily. Also a strong lean on the under - if Bryce doesn’t play I like the under better but all signs post to Bryce playing.

    UNC/Duke Over 68 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units.
    UNC is 5th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards. Duke is 29th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards. UNC defense is 48th in long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards. Duke defense is 48th in long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards.
    Both defenses are in bottom ⅓ of league for 3rd down conv %. UNC offense outranks Duke defense by an average of 32 ranks across all FEI categories. Duke’s offense outranks UNC defense by an even larger average of 78 ranks across all FEI categories. Both defensive secondaries are really struggling with Duke’s ranking 94th overall and UNC’s ranking 110th. Both defenses are outranked in every positional category on PFF by an average of 25 ranks for UNC and 36 ranks for Duke. UNC’s defensive line has been horrible and are outranked by an average of 70 ranks across all line stat categories. Take the over in this ACC shootout.

    Vtech/Miami under 48 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Miami is 114th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards. Vtech is 106th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards. Miami defense is 93rd iin long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards. Vtech defense is 48th in long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards.
    According to FEI both defenses have strong advantages with Miami’s being much larger and an average of 60 ranks across all categories (Vtech’s outranks by an average of 11 ranks). Both defensive lines have strong advantages as well with Vtech’s defensive line outranking by an average of 29 ranks and Miami’s defensive line by an average of 52 ranks. Vtech’s offense has been sputtering on all levels in PFF, ranking 107th overall, 31st in passing, 66th in receiving , 94th in rushing and 127th in run blocking. MIami’s defense in PFF is ranked 15th overall, 33rd in coverage and 26th in rush defense so they should hold up fine on the road here. Take the Under and close your eyes during the 4th qtr as it seems like every NCAAF game this year looks good throughout the game with under and then 50 points are scored in every 4th qtre.

    LSU +3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Lots of reasons to like LSU here, first the defensive numbers are a huge mismatch as UF has really been struggling allowing 6 yards per play (ranked 99th) allowing a 52% opponent 3rd down conv % - ranking 125th. They;ve been getting gashed on the ground and in the air. UF’s offense has been just as bad with Richardson leading the team. He is only average 6.9 yards per pas and 53% completion % - ranking 113th in the league. UF relies on their run game but LSU’s rush defense is ranked 15th in the nation in PFF. I’ll take 3 points but I think LSU comes out here with an upset

    NC State/Syracuse under 43 (-112) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    No writeup sorry. Leary out - lots of other reasons too. Just tight on time.

  18. #18
    Smutbucket
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    DAPPER DAN PICKS​
    WEEK 7 RESULTS: 7-3 (+3.66 UNITS)​
    SEASON YTD: 29-31 (-7.33 UNITS)​

    Took the day off work yesterday to focus on what's most important this time of year - college football. Let’s turn this season around now that we got all the stats and put the time in.

    Week 8:
    Rutgers -3 (-113)
    UCLA +7 (-125)
    Purdue +2.5 (-107)
    N. Illinois/Ohio Over 64 (-109)
    Minnesota +5 (-109)
    CMU/Bowling Green Under 50.5 (-105)
    Pittsburgh +3 (-130)
    Ole Miss +2.5 (-125)
    Texas A&M ML (-160)

    Rutgers -3 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
    These are my favorite matchups to bet on - the ones where the differential between offensive and defensive line - is in the triple digits. Indiana’s offensive line is probably the worst statistically in the league which ranks 130th in line yards, 130th in opportunity rate, 51st in power rate, 129th in stuff ranking, and 70th in sack rate. Schiano’s defensive line have always been great - this years is no different at they ranked 4th in line yards, 10th on standard downs - 1st in passing downs, 8th in opportunity rate, 16th in power success rate, 9th in stuff ranking and 57th in sack rate - (ok the differential is 94 across all categories so not quite triple digits). PFF shows an even larger mismatch at line of scrimmage with Indiana ranking 118th in pass blocking and Rutgers ranking 14th in the pass rush. They also rank 121st in run blocking and Rutgers ranks 27th in run defense. A big mismatch in special teams as Indiana’s is ranked 106th and Rutgers ranks 27th. Rutgers offense that has sputtered at times this season should see some life against this Indiana defense that is ranked 106th overall. They should pull away by at least 3 points.

    UCLA +7 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    I’ll bite on UCLA with a TD in the PAC 12 where defense isn’t played. UCLA’s rushing attack should be especially productive (take Charbonnet props yards props too) as Oregon’s rushing defense ranks 104th in the league in PFF and UCLA is by far the best they faced ranking 13th in overall rushing and 11th in run-blocking. FEI shows UCLA outranks Oregon by and average of 69 ranks across all categories, over 3x more than the differential between Oregon’s offense and UCLA’s defense which is only 20. PFF numbers show lots of good signs for the UCLA defense - they are ranked 23rd overall, 20th in pass rush, 23rd in coverage, 34th in run defense and 47th in tackling. A huge step up from Oregon’s PFF defensive ranks that are 82nd overall, 103rd in the pass rush, 36th in coverage, 104th in rush defense and 97th in tackling. We also have a strong advantage in special teams as UCLA ranks 32nd in special teams and Oregon ranks a horrible 119th. Granted UCLA’s schedule to start the season was awfully soft but beating Washington and Utah back to back is impressive and a better feat than anything accomplished on Oregon’s schedule this year. Interestingly enough, there’s projected to be horrible weather which should play in UCLA’s favor on the ground and leaning under although originally looking at the stats for this one - the OVER lit up the spreadsheets.

    Purdue +2.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
    Love me some purdue this year! No writeup sorry

    N. Illiinois/Ohio Over 64 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    An obvious no-brainer over. We have two opposing QBs that are in the top 5% of QBs in overall offense and passing. (Lombardi just coming back after injury - lean NIU too). Both secondaries are horrible, ranking 120th and 127th in coverage in PFF.. Both rank in the bottom 125th and 129th in defensive passing efficiency. Both have a given up a ton of big passing plays to opponents over 30 yards they have both given up 16 times in 7 games and rank #124th in the nation. In passing plays of 30+ yards on offense Ohio is ranked 8th and NIU ranked 96th but that's without Lombardi in half the games. Both teams' offensive FEI’s outrank their defensive FEI counterparts in almost every category and by an average of at least 20 ranks for NIU and 40 ranks for Ohio. NIU should be able to run at will too as Ohio’s rushing defense has been terrible as well ranking 120th in PFF. Both teams are bad at tackling ranking 128th and 89th in the league. Last year there were 75 total points scored in this matchup and no reason to believe we don’t hit that number again and even more if we go to OT. Lean NIU too.

    Minnesota +5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
    I love when I see all the advantages in FEI, offensive/defensive line, and PFF and my boy BrassKnux is on them too so we are definitely locking in Minn with these points. Another one we love but are only doing 1 unit due to the SOS discrepancy. Penn State has been grading out horribly against the run, ranking 109th in PFF rush defense and 114th in tackling. This is a huge mismatch for Minnesota as they rank 5th in rushing and 2nd in run blocking. The differential between their offensive line and Penn State's defensive line is an average of 47 ranks across all categories with an advantage in every category. Minnesota’s defensive line also outranks Penn State’s offensive line who has struggled to run the ball and is in the bottom ⅓ of the league in every category. Penn State will have to throw but that will not be easy against this 4th ranked secondary in PFF and 19th ranking tackling. In FEI both defenses have an edge but Minnesota’s slightly larger as Minn’s stronger on both sides of the ball. Minnesota’s defense doesn't make mistakes, only allowing 6 plays over 30+ yards in 6 games. We should expect this one to remain close and if Tanner plays we could easily win ML - sprinkle it in if confirmed before kickoff.

    CMU/Bowling Green Under 50.5 (-105)
    Although both these teams love to throw the ball, we love the under and the weather may help us out as 15 mph winds are expected in the north east for this one. CMU has a huge mismatch at the line of scrimmage as BG ranks 109th in lin yards, 76th in opportunity rate, 114th in stuff ranking. We don’t expect them to get much push against this CMU front that is ranked 2nd in line yards, 14th in opportunity rate, and 7th in stuff rankings. Both defenses are in the Top 20 of TFLs with CMU ranking 3rd overall and Bowling Green ranking 18th. Both offenses have given up plenty of TFL allowed and both rank 104th in the nation - haven given up 45 in 7 games. Neither offense has been successful at the big play, with Bowling Green having only 9 plays over 30+ yards ranking 103rd in the nation and CMU ranks 68th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards. Both offenses have only converted 31% of their 3rd downs - ranking in bottom 5% of the league. Also in the red zone, both offenses are in the bottom 5% of the league. Although both defenses have struggled, they both have been average in coverage with CMU ranking 55th and Bowling Green ranking 52nd. In PFF, we see huge mismatches in the pass rush game as both offenses struggle to pass protect ranking 99th and 110th - where the defensive pass rush units rank 45th and 35th. Don’t really watch either of these teams but we absolutely love all the numbers being shown in this one for the under.

    Pittsburgh +3 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
    I love getting 3 points with the much stronger defense. Pitt’s defensive line continues to be dominant, ranking 11th in line yards, 11th in opportunity rate, 12th in stuff ranking, and 31st in sack rate. Louisville’s offensive line is middle of the league in all of those categories so a strong edge for Pitt. PFF has the biggest mismatch on paper for Pitt - who defensively rank 23rd overall, 45th in pass rush, 11th in coverage, 34th against the run, and 28th in tackling. Pitt’s secondary has only allowed 6 yards per pass ranking 9th in the nation, 6th in completion % allowed, and ranked 16th in defensive passing efficiency. Louisville secondary ranks 99th in ypp allowed, 95th in completion % allowed, and 100th in defensive passing efficiency. A noticeable difference will be seen in Louisville's defense who ranks 90th overall, 116th in coverage, 80th in run-stopping and 123rd in tackling. We also have a huge mismatch in special teams as Louisville ranks 111th and Pitt ranks 40th. We have the better trenches, defense, special teams, and coaches so we’ll take the 3 points and hopefully Cunningham sits out.

    Ole Miss +2.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    I watch a lot of these two teams and this is more of an eye test but have some numbers to support it. I hate how I see a lot of cappers I respect at LSU. PFF we have the biggest mismatch as Ole Miss defense has been great (albeit against weak competition) - they rank 16th overall, 14th in pass rush, 18th in coverage and 59th against the run where they really struggled - but not what LSU likes to do. Jayden Daniels should have some protection problems at LSU pass blocking ranks 75th in PFF and 120th in sack rate %. LSU’s secondary has struggled ranking 82nd overall and 64th in ypp allowed. Ole Miss offense has averaged over 1 yard per play more than LSU’s offense - and their defense has allowed 0.5 yard per play less. We have a huge special teams advantage as LSU ranks 123rd overall, and Ole Miss ranks 14th. I also like Lane Kiffen and the much more established coaching staff than Kelly who I’ve never had much respect for as a coach as his numbers don’t warrant that (spent lifetime outside the power 5 - this a different animal)

    Texas A&M ML (-160) Risking 1.6 units to win 1 units
    No write-up - for once we have slight edges in every category - AND a much harder SOS - love seeing that and I’m a big Jimbo/DJ Durkin fan despite being a Hurricane you have to respect what he can do on the field with his players.


    Week 7:
    Baylor -3 (-115) L
    Illinois +7 (-125) W
    Maryland -11.5 (-109) L
    Michigan -6.5 (-130) W
    Arkansas/BYU Over 66 (-120) W
    Alabama -8.5 (-110) L
    UNC/Duke Over 68 (-110) W
    Vtech/Miami under 48 (-110) W
    NC State/Syracuse under 43 (-112) W
    LSU +3 (-120) W

  19. #19
    freddues
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    Betpoints: 118

    Dapper Dan thank you for the thought-provoking write ups. Your unique view of the college grid iron is a main stay to compare my Saturday selections. Best of luck today! We need to pad the accounts as we basically get the month of November with good stat data and then the season closes (I do not play bowl games).

  20. #20
    Smutbucket
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    Join Date: 03-14-08
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    Thanks Freddues - Oh man the bowls are my most profitable weeks by far in years past! Good luck on remainder of season

    DAPPER DAN PICKS
    WEEK 9 RESULTS: 2-4 (-2.53 UNITS)
    SEASON YTD: 32-43 (-21.56 UNITS)
    Didn't get a chance to run the numbers this week bc was too busy with work and wanted to reset after losing season. Next week we come back strong and guarantee that we end the units less than -15 units or I will send you $$ if you’ve been playing my picks, message me and we’ll work out a guarantee for the end of season. Nothing crazy but I will get $$ back to you if we continue to lose. (other businesses are booming) One play for you
    Week 10:
    Baylor +3 (-109)

  21. #21
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Week 11 Results: 1-0 (+1 units)
    Season YTD: 33-43 (-20.56 units)

    Week 12:
    Pitt -5.5 (-110)
    LSU/Ark Over 61 (-120)
    Maryland/Penn State under 56 (-109)
    Louisville +7 (-109)
    Bama/Ole Miss Over 65 (-112)
    Wisc/Iowa Under 35.5 (-112)
    Baylor ML (-134)
    Kansas +4 (-109)

    Week 11:
    Baylor +3 (-109)W

  22. #22
    Smutbucket
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    DAPPER DAN PICKS
    WEEK 12 RESULTS: 3-5 ( -2.84 UNITS)
    SEASON YTD: 36-48 (-23.4 UNITS)

    Next week will be back with full writeups.
    Week 13:
    Mich/Illinois Under 42.5 (-109) 2x
    Utah ML (-136)
    Pitt -7 (-109)
    Syracuse +9 (-109)
    Oregon State -7 (-110)

  23. #23
    Smutbucket
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    DAPPER DAN PICKS
    WEEK 12 RESULTS: 2-3 (-.54 UNITS)
    SEASON YTD: 38-51 (-23.94 UNITS)
    Sorry all - havent had the time to do write ups this week but definitely for the Bowls and we will gain back 5-10 units before seasons end - guaranteed. I haven't had the time to put in the work for the last few weeks and gotta step back when you're losing. We end the night with a big 2 unit banger in Air Force!
    Week 13:
    Michigan +7.5 (-109)
    WKU/FAU over 62 (-107)
    Louisville +3 (-109)
    Purdue/Indiana under 53 (-109)
    Wake Forest ML (-162)
    ULM/So. Miss Under 50.5 (-121)
    Oklahoma ML (-121)
    Notre Dame +4 (-109)
    KU/Kansas State over 62.5 (-112)
    Air Force ML (-129) 2x

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