Dapper Dan Picks 2025-26 Season Long Thread

SBR Andy · 08-25-25, 01:10 PM

Appreciate the write-up. Nice call!

Smutbucket · 08-28-25, 10:41 AM

Thanks ANDY!

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 0: 1-0 (+1 unit)

More to come tomorrow…..

Week 1 Picks:
Rutgers -15 (-110)
Neb/Cinn Under 52 (-105)

Rutgers -15 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Oh man we have a Rutgers team that is mostly back in tact from last season, with Schiano fired up after his defense struggled last year bringing back his boy Robb Smith at co-DC who was there as DC in 2020-21 and another co-DC Zach Sparber who’s a disciple of Mike Elko’s defenses at Duke from ‘21-’23 (and Robb joined them in 2022) so you know they will be prepared to bring Schiano’s defense back to one of the best in the country. Their offense was the big surprise - especially at the end of the season where they averaged 36 ppg in their last 4 games and 29 ppg over the season. They have their OC back in his 3rd year with Athan Kaliakmanis at the helm and 9 returning starters and ranked 18th in % of yards returning. On the other side you have Ohio with their 4 year HC Tim Albin departing and basically no new coaching additions and keeping the rest of the staff in house promoting them up to new roles. They have two areas that may struggle as their defense only returns 3 starters - and ranks 77th in % of tackles returning - as well as their offensive line who ranks 98th in total career starts. Despite going 10-3 the last 3 seasons, it was against a notably weaker SOS in the MAC compared to the BIG 10 as last year Ohio played the 131st weakest schedule and Rutgers 59th according to Sagarins SOS rankings. Rutgers pulls away in the 2nd half and wins this one easily by 2+ TDs.

Neb/Cinn Under 52 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Both teams' defenses were their strengths last year with Nebraska being in the Top 25 of most DFEI categories. Cincinnati’s unit was not as strong - but return more starters and are in the 2nd year now of implementing a new 3-3-5 defense under Tyson Veidt who was a long time LB coach and Broyles nominee over at Iowa State. Both offenses struggled with Havoc allowed in the back-field with Nebraska ranking 132nd and Cincinnati ranking 56th. That was also the strength of each defense - with Nebraska ranking 26th in Havoc and Cincinnati ranking 56th. They are both experienced teams so let’s hope we don’t see any horrible breakdowns in coverage that lead to big plays. Last year in long scrimmage plays on offense, Nebraska struggled ranking 123rd in plays over 30+ yards and 81st in plays over 20+ yards. Cincinnati’s offense ranked 57th in plays over 30+ yards and 105th in plays over 20+ yards.

Smutbucket · 08-29-25, 12:04 PM

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 2-1 (+0.9 units)

Week 1 Adds:
Baylor ML (+115) 2x
Gtech -3.5 (-113)

Baylor ML (+115) Risking 2 units to win 2.3 units
Love this play and this Baylor team this year with 10 starters back on offense - including Sawyer Robertson who looked like an absolute stud at the end of the season - averaging 8.3 ypp, completing 62% for 3000 yards and a 28:8 TD:INT ratio. With the same OC in his 2nd year and ranking 5th in % of yards returning - there’s not much reason to believe they won’t have the same kind of production and were in the Top 30 of most PFF and O-FEI categories. Auburn on the other side not only lost the majority of their starters - ranking 105th in % of yards returning - but they brought in the crappy Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold who couldn’t average more then 5.5 ypp last year with all that talent at OU. Baylor also has 8 starters on defense returning ranking 40th in % of total tackles returning where Auburn also ranks significantly less in experience ranking 71st in % of total tackles returning. The only place Auburn is more experienced - is in the offensive line - where they are ranked 7th in offensive line starts - but that’s not necessarily a good thing when your team ranked 108th in havoc allowed the year before. Baylor will be fired up at home - Dave Aranda is a hell of a DC turned HC and think he will have his experienced team ready to win the opener against and SEC opponent. Favorite play of the weekend.

Gtech -3.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Bought the extra half point just to keep it under 4 but I think Georgia Tech should win easily. Haynes King AND Jamal Haynes are back - accounting for over 1500+ yards on ground, even being banged up and missing some games from injury. They have 7 starters returning on both sides of the ball and an OC in his 2nd year with the QB/RB duo that relies heavily on the counter and lots of pre-snap motion - they should have this Colorado defense on their heels that ranks 86th in % of total tackles returning from last season. Even more concerning for Colorado is their offense that returns 3 starters and #119th ranking in % of total yards. They bring in transfer QB from Liberty Kaidon Saltor who regressed last season - only completing 56% of his passes for 7.2 ypp, 1900 yards and a 15:6 TD:INT ration - after a great 2023 year. With an entire new offense that heavily relied on throwing the ball last season, I don’t expect them to keep pace with Georgia Tech in this one.

Smutbucket · 08-30-25, 06:29 AM

Dapper Dan Picks

Season YTD: 3-2 (-0.1 units)

Going to keep these short and sweet as I have a Jurassic dinosar quest with my daughter this morning before the games start and pissed Baylor got HOSED by the refs tonight - woulda got the ball back with 8 minutes left down 1 TD but a phantom “defensive holding” on a run play extended their drive on 3rd down to solidify their win.

Week 1 Adds:

Texas +2 (-101)

Miss State -13 (-111)

Northwestern +4.5 (+102)

UK/Toledo Over 47.5 (-110)

Clemson ML (-180)

Utah -5.5 (+104)

Texas +2 (-101) Risking 1.101 units to win 1 units

I mean we have Archie Manning and a much more experienced team going against a freshman with 12 career passes? Texas also had the #1 recruiting class last year according to Marc Lawrence’s ratings. Texas had an arguably much tougher schedule too last year being in the SEC now. Give me Texas in this one hell of an opening noon kickoff.

Miss State -13 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units

I mean Mississippi State’s defense was so incredibly horrible last year, which is giving us a nice low line. They brought in two new DC’s to turn that around and Lebby is in his 2nd year as HC and he calls the plays - he has a nice track record having coached with Huepel, Kiffin, and Venables at Oklahoma over the last 7 years prior to taking over this job. They rank 9th overall in Phil Steele’s experience returning and 28th in recruiting. That is the complete opposite of Souther Miss’s offseason who ranks 116th in experience and 106th in recruiting. The conference mismatch should have us winning by atleast two TDs.

Northwestern +4.5 (+102) Risking 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Another experience mismatch as NW ranks 11th in exp charts and and Tulane ranks 79th. I also really like their new QB - Preston Stone from SMU - he has a ton of experience and threw for 3200 yards, averaging 9.3 per pass, 60% and 28:6 TD:INT ratio before getting hurt at the end of the season and never really got a chance last season with Jennings taking over the starting role.Tulane is in he 2nd year of the Troy coaching staff that took over - last year they had a lot of returning starters but regressed from Willie Fritz’s 24-5 over the two seasons prior to 9-5 last season. They are also not used to the level of competition that NW faces in the BIG 10 - can’t believe we’re getting 4.5 points

UK/Toledo Over 47.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

Even though both defenses were the strengths of these teams last year, I like the low number and thing both offenses put up some points. Kentucky brings in transfer Zach Calzada who has a ton of experience and QB play was a huge problem of UK’s offense last year. Jason Candle is getting back 8 starters on offense including Tucker Gleason who can do just enough to move the chains. I was leaning Toledo TT over but just decided to go over in the low game total

Clemson ML (-180) Risking 1.8 units to win 1 units

I hated Klubnik at first but the more I watched him the more I was impressed and he returns his top 3 WR’s from last season and is one of the highest rating receiving corps in college football - Klubnick himself ranked 7th in PFF last year out of all QB’s who took at least 50% of the snaps. I’m a big fan of their new DC - Tom Allen. LSU has a lot of new guys from the transfer portal - they rank 47th overall in exp returning and Clemson ranks 2nd.

Utah -5.5 (+104) Risking 1 units to win 1.04 units

Love Utah with nearly their entire offense returning - except the QB but bring in an experienced Devon Dampier who started last year at New Mexico with the same OC Tim Beck who came to Utah with him to implement their new offense - it should catch some teams off-gguiard. Whittingham always has a top notch defense and they should put a pounding on this UCLA team that’s definitely in the 2nd year of a “transition year” after Kelly leaving - they don’t have much of a coaching staff with any respectable track records and a whole lot of new faces - including Nico from Tennessee who was never that impressive and benefited from Huepels offensive system.