Sagarin College Bowl System Plays

**goblue12** · 12-29-09, 07:51 PM

Wisconsin is a +EV wager.

Pinnacle wants no more $$$ on Wisconsin and is begging you to take Miami-FL -3.5 (+103).

**tblues2005** · 12-29-09, 08:38 PM

good luck goblue on that one. I think this game is too close to call I think. This game could go either way.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 12-29-09, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by goblue12

Wisconsin is a +EV wager. Pinnacle wants no more $$$ on Wisconsin and is begging you to take Miami-FL -3.5 (+103).

Good call.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-30-09, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by snapstick

Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-57) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-74)
Play #2: UCF +2.5 (Sagarin Rating-61, SOS Rank-85) vs. Rutgers (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-100)
Play #3: Oregon State -1.5 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-21) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-17) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-35, SOS Rank-73)
Play #5: Nevada -14 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 82) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-88, SOS Rank-90)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-18) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-68)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-92) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-97)
Play #8: Missouri PK (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-50) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-79)
Play #9: LSU +2.5 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-16) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-83)
Play #10: Arkansas -7.5 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-50, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Troy +4 (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-106) vs. C. Michigan (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-111)
Play #12: Florida -10 (Sagarin Rating-2, SOS Rank-27) vs. Cincinati (Sagarin Rating-6, SOS Rank-63)
Play #13: S. Florida -3 (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-62) vs. N. Illinois (Sagarin Rating-87, SOS Rank-121)
Play #14: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-84) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

I didnt include the date of the games but they are in order of games played from top to bottom. ie, Play #1 is the first game played and so on.

First, where did you ever get Mizzou as a pk? I searched all of my records and NEVER saw Mizzou even. You may want to explain that one to us. So as I see it, the system is either 1-5, or 2-4, or 2-5 depending on what you did with the UCF game so far, right? There are 8 games left to play, so no matter what, this will be the worst season for the system. It can still win, and that is very important, but it looks as if .500 would be good. By the way, where is the Auburn Game? Auburn with a rating of #25 and a SOS of 14 vs Northwestern, with an SOS of 94. How did you miss that one?

**IrishTim** · 12-30-09, 11:52 AM

System is imploding. Are we still "haters"? Can't say you weren't warned. So system that doesn't factor in the line will be a long-term winner. Fact.

**fuatakkg0g** · 12-30-09, 11:56 AM

thanks, nice topic.

**GGPLAYER** · 12-30-09, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck

and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

STOP looking at those plays you have referred to. Those are not the final plays. It's been stated and restated several times. The reason he had Mizz as a PK is because at the time he posted those plays there was no line avail yet. As you can see by the final version Mizz was at -6. He put PK because according to the system Mizz is the play regardless what the spread was going to be. ALL of this is explained on the thread. The offical record so far is 2-4.

**GGPLAYER** · 12-30-09, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

OK...to address your question Palmer:

Play #7: Air Force +5(Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
AIR FORCE IS A PLAY SIMPLY BECAUSE THEIR SOS IS LOWER THAN THAT OF HOUSTON. The rule is: Fade a team that is ranked in the TOP 60 in the Sagarin rankings if their SOS rank is higher than 60, Unless their opponents' SOS rank is higher. Both teams are ranked in the top 60 and both teams have a SOS rank higher than 60 and in that case based on the rules of the system you fade the team with the worse or higher SOS rank.

Why isnt the florida state game a play you asked? West Virginia is ranked #27 and their SOS rank is 40. They do not qualify as a fade. Florida State is ranked #44 and their SOS rank is 8. Both are ranked in the top 60 but neither have a SOS rank of 60+

Why isnt the Auburn game a play you asked? Auburn is ranked #25 with a SOS rank of 14. Northwestern is ranked #68. Auburn isnt a play because their SOS rank is below 60. Northwestern isnt a play because you wouldnt fade NW unless Auburn had a SOS worse than 60 and better than NW.

Let me expplain the NW/Auburn game a little more in dept for you and give you an example of a game that is a play thats similiar.

ie...Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)

Under the rules if you look at C. Michigan you would think they would be the fade because they are ranked in the top 60 and have a SOS worse than 60. The only time you wouldnt fade, in this case, C. Michigan is if their opponent has a higher SOS which in this case Troy has a SOS rank of 110. Albeit theirs not much difference between a SOS rank of 107 compared to 110 but thats the way the system works and the way i feel is you either follow it to a tee or not at all.

GL and i hope i answered your questions.

Again read the tread. He already explained why Auburn is not a play.

**Wrigley** · 12-30-09, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by goblue12

Wisconsin is a +EV wager.

Pinnacle wants no more $$$ on Wisconsin and is begging you to take Miami-FL -3.5 (+103).

you nailed this

**snapstick** · 12-30-09, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

First, where did you ever get Mizzou as a pk? I searched all of my records and NEVER saw Mizzou even. You may want to explain that one to us. So as I see it, the system is either 1-5, or 2-4, or 2-5 depending on what you did with the UCF game so far, right? There are 8 games left to play, so no matter what, this will be the worst season for the system. It can still win, and that is very important, but it looks as if .500 would be good. By the way, where is the Auburn Game? Auburn with a rating of #25 and a SOS of 14 vs Northwestern, with an SOS of 94. How did you miss that one?

By the way If you do a little research you will find that Northwestern is NOT in the Sagarin TOP 60 bro. They are ranked #68. How did you miss that one?

I had Mizzou as a PK because there was no line at the time of the original post. If you read my final plays it has the corrected line.

**snapstick** · 12-30-09, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

STOP looking at those plays you have referred to. Those are not the final plays. It's been stated and restated several times. The reason he had Mizz as a PK is because at the time he posted those plays there was no line avail yet. As you can see by the final version Mizz was at -6. He put PK because according to the system Mizz is the play regardless what the spread was going to be. ALL of this is explained on the thread. The offical record so far is 2-4.

Thank for your post, you took the words right out of my mouth. Well explained but you need to realize there will always be those people who only come around to say "I told you so" when anyone has a small losing streak. Just ignore those type of people.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-30-09, 12:55 PM

Cool. But when ther is no line, that does not mean that the game is a pick. The proper way to describe it would be NL, not PK. Let's see what happens in the final 8 games. I guess you have to hit 5 to break even if you count the UCF game as a win, even though many people had to middle it out, and a few lost outright. For those who lost, 6 wins are needed to just lose a little vig. Of the games you have left, I think that 5 wins is very doable, and 6 is a definate possibility, but after watching Miami roll over and play dead last night, you just never know.

**snapstick** · 12-30-09, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck

and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76) (Wyoming 35-28)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
(Rutgers 45-24)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
(BYU 44-20)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
(Utah 37-27)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
(SMU 45-10)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Wisconsin 20-14)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

Sagarin System Plays: 2-4, 33%

Hopefully we will get back on track for THOSE who played these games. GL

**snapstick** · 12-30-09, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Cool. But when ther is no line, that does not mean that the game is a pick. The proper way to describe it would be NL, not PK. Let's see what happens in the final 8 games. I guess you have to hit 5 to break even if you count the UCF game as a win, even though many people had to middle it out, and a few lost outright. For those who lost, 6 wins are needed to just lose a little vig. Of the games you have left, I think that 5 wins is very doable, and 6 is a definate possibility, but after watching Miami roll over and play dead last night, you just never know.

Im not going to split hairs with children any more bro. Obviously if there was no line you couldnt have wagered on the game. Your splitting hairs now. We really dont need you to break down what everyone's record might be or not be. Im not going to explain any further questions you are asking that already have been answered about 5 times in this thread. Just read a little. Instead of acting as my personal secretary maybe you should spend your time more wisely as i never asked for a secretary. GL

**Serbone** · 12-30-09, 01:53 PM

System is a good tool, but did not account for Miami losing key OT on an already shaky OL, QB's thumb adversely affecting his throws, and cold weather in Florida surprisingly helping the northern boys when we all though hot weather would drain them.

**DanOmaha** · 12-30-09, 09:18 PM

So....what are people doing with tomorrow's games? I've bet each of these games and (stupidly) put some in parlays thinking that 2 in a row might win.

**Serbone** · 12-30-09, 11:39 PM

Does anyone know if Tennessee "D" is healthy? They were missing several linebackers late in the yr.

**The Seer** · 12-30-09, 11:46 PM

Originally posted by Serbone

Does anyone know if Tennessee "D" is healthy? They were missing several linebackers late in the yr.

Savion Frasier is still out but the main guys are back and freshman Greg King who played most of the year will play. They are fine there.

**snapstick** · 12-31-09, 11:32 AM

GL with the Force this morning.

**goblue12** · 12-31-09, 12:06 PM

I think you guys got a winner here.

AF closed shop as a +EV wager as the square books (SIA, WSEX, Bodog).

**Serbone** · 12-31-09, 02:34 PM

ALSO, for some reason (???????), Sagarrin overrates the Pac 10 this yr... Oregon SOS 7, Ohio State 61.

Look them up, all the Pac 10's supposedly played strong scheduled (UCLA 11, AZ 5, etc).

NO WAY.

**hhsilver** · 12-31-09, 02:45 PM

Pac 10 had only 3 non conf games each and by far they had a higher % of non conf games vs other bcs confs than any other bcs conf. Also they had by far the lowest % against FCS.

**snapstick** · 12-31-09, 03:21 PM

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck

and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76) (Wyoming 35-28)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
(Rutgers 45-24)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
(BYU 44-20)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
(Utah 37-27)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
(SMU 45-10)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Wisconsin 20-14)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
(Air Force 47-20)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

Sagarin System Plays: 3-4, 43%

**snapstick** · 12-31-09, 03:33 PM

Mizzou next play with the system. GL

**tblues2005** · 12-31-09, 03:41 PM

snapstick I hope Missouri comes through. I didn't realize that you put Oregon on it until now. Thanks for the update on that.

**snapstick** · 12-31-09, 03:50 PM

**BigdaddyQH** · 01-02-10, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by snapstick

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck

and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76) (Wyoming 35-28)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
(Rutgers 45-24)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
(BYU 44-20)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
(Utah 37-27)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
(SMU 45-10)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Wisconsin 20-14)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
(Air Force 47-20)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

Sagarin System Plays: 3-4, 43%

I do not see how the system can change in mid-stream, but aparently it did and for the worse. The deletion of Florida was not good. Florida covered easily. With LSU's win, and losses by Missouri and Oregon, that brings the current record for this system to 4-6, with 3 games left. At best, you get what amounts to a push, and that is if all of the remaining 3 games win out. One more loss and the systems is a loser for the bowl season.

What all of this proves is that there is no such thing as a perfect system. This system, like all systems, has it's peaks and valleys. This year is going to be a valley. By sticking to the original plan, the system would have done better, having a Flroida win, and not having an Oregon loss. This is why you never change horses in the middle of the stream. Any system that allows you to do so is basicaly flawed. The proof of this is in the results.

**SexyMit** · 01-02-10, 11:13 AM

The ones that I took were when the SOS and the Ranking were both better! Not just the SOS... I haven't even looked at it this year so I couldn't tell you how it went!

**BigdaddyQH** · 01-02-10, 11:19 AM

That would have given you a 3-6 year, and no hope of cashing in. The results would have been the same, except for the first game, which you would not have been on at all. I'm not sure, but from what I can read, I think that is what happened.

**Serbone** · 01-02-10, 11:23 AM

Again, Saggarin must have been smoking something, Pac 10 schools have ridiculously strong SOS:
Ore St 15, Cal 20, USC 6, AZ 5, Stanf 23, Ore 5.
MISLEADING as hell. WTF?

**Flopa3** · 01-02-10, 11:45 AM

Snap just ignore BigdaddyQH, he is a hater and bashes everyone's picks constantly. His record isn't much better I followed him for 3 picks like a instead of doing research and lost my ass. So you system is off you did better last years keep working on it and doing what you do.

**Formulawiz** · 01-02-10, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck

and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76) (Wyoming 35-28)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
(Rutgers 45-24)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
(BYU 44-20)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
(Utah 37-27)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
(SMU 45-10)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Wisconsin 20-14)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
(Air Force 47-20)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

Sagarin System Plays: 3-4, 43%

All plays are made on the original Sagarin Ranks and SOS values. Any adjustments made to these values by Sagarin after each bowl game is played should be ignored.

**hhsilver** · 01-02-10, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by Serbone

Again, Saggarin must have been smoking something, Pac 10 schools have ridiculously strong SOS:
Ore St 15, Cal 20, USC 6, AZ 5, Stanf 23, Ore 5.
MISLEADING as hell. WTF?

The PAC 10, as a conf, played , by far, the most impressive non-conf schedule of any bcs conf. If you look and compare them to other bcs confs for the % of non conf games vs FCS and do the same for % vs schools from other BCS confs, you'll see why they have such a good SOS.

Too bad the pac10 was 0-3 for those who base their bets on this.

The following is not directed to you , serbone.

I've been amazed , reading this thread , how naive people are to believe that a system should be based on this because it happened to do well over 2 years and 20-30 bets. And , by the way, I find more hate coming from some of the defenders of this almost coin flip system than from the obviously experienced players who are trying to point out the futility of this approach. (please don't hate me or call me bad names )

"futility" might be too strong a word because I see value in doing this ---- IF you bet for entertainment and like to watch games and enjoy looking up data and realize in any year you might win or lose and bet amounts you can afford to lose. If takes some of the guesswork out of trying to pick a winner and can be a fun way to have action during the bowl season. Enjoy.

**BigdaddyQH** · 01-02-10, 03:50 PM

HH is absolutely correct. A system takes years to develop. That is my only point. This year, the system failed because the MWC beat the daylights out of the Pac 10, and the Big 10 finally stepped it up and played very well against two pretty good teams (Miami and Oregon). Next year, the whole thing could reverse itself. I have next year's schedule already, and I can tell you that teams like USC and Oregon will have a lower SOS, just because of the teams that they play. Teams like UCLA will have a higher SOS. SOS can be very misleading because if you play in a competitive conference, your SOS can be affected by it.

**IrishTim** · 01-02-10, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by hhsilver

The PAC 10, as a conf, played , by far, the most impressive non-conf schedule of any bcs conf. If you look and compare them to other bcs confs for the % of non conf games vs FCS and do the same for % vs schools from other BCS confs, you'll see why they have such a good SOS.

Too bad the pac10 was 0-3 for those who base their bets on this.

The following is not directed to you , serbone.

I've been amazed , reading this thread , how naive people are to believe that a system should be based on this because it happened to do well over 2 years and 20-30 bets. And , by the way, I find more hate coming from some of the defenders of this almost coin flip system than from the obviously experienced players who are trying to point out the futility of this approach. (please don't hate me or call me bad names )

"futility" might be too strong a word because I see value in doing this ---- IF you bet for entertainment and like to watch games and enjoy looking up data and realize in any year you might win or lose and bet amounts you can afford to lose. If takes some of the guesswork out of trying to pick a winner and can be a fun way to have action during the bowl season. Enjoy.

Very astute post. This "system" has value in that it factors in SOS which is a key part of bowl game handicapping, but it's not the only thing. The first and BY FAR most important part of sports betting is analyzing the line -- and any system that completely ignores this will never hit more than 50% long term.

If you gamble for entertainment, this system is great. But if you're serious about making money then blindly following systems like this are a bad idea.