Wal's College Football Week #9

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-25-09, 02:46 PM

hey man , looks like one of our threads
would you like to work on a few lines together , I should have our games after tonight or atleast some time after we get the monday post sometime
we do the same thing as you have here but you know we dont usethe program anymore , dont worry I ll dod our homeworok on our thread but possible we could exchange a few emails or even a phone call

we had a great day yesterday only losing one game and I hate to pop you on this one but your program had the Miami game at something lke -11 but it was one game we might had dropped if not had it been for that program
but never the less that prograam got me onto more winners than losers just in this case almost had another perfect saturday
as you know we also only missed one game last week ,

**wal66** · 10-25-09, 03:09 PM

Crush I never have a problem working with someone in conjunction. I like sharing info and ideas and kicking games back and forth can be as good as anything because often someone else can help you see something differently that you might have missed.

I am on MSN messenger with same user name.

The model is JUST a filter. It gets games wrong, even way wrong, It just enables me to toss out games that have no initial value and concentrate on the ones that do and then handicapping those games from that point.

**polson22** · 10-25-09, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Crush I never have a problem working with someone in conjunction. I like sharing info and ideas and kicking games back and forth can be as good as anything because often someone else can help you see something differently that you might have missed.

I am on MSN messenger with same user name.

The model is JUST a filter. It gets games wrong, even way wrong, It just enables me to toss out games that have no initial value and concentrate on the ones that do and then handicapping those games from that point.

wal66, your efforts are greatly appreciated. i certainly prefer it to looking at a schedule.

i'd have to find out the opponents and homefields to comment though. which i will do.

**wal66** · 10-25-09, 04:10 PM

polson.............i was steamlining. i do appreciate that you appreciate too.

**wal66** · 10-25-09, 08:00 PM

Made 2 errors guys that I just caught.

Houston -9 not Southern Miss-11
Navy -12.5 not Temple -12.5

Look at so many numbers bound to make an error or two. Have double checked everything now and rest are correct.

**wal66** · 10-25-09, 08:12 PM

My plays will be narrowed down from the list below and these opening actual lines provided by the Gold Sheet.

East Carolina -4
Northern Illinois -9.5
Ohio U -7
Cincinnati -14.5
SMU +16.5
Navy -7
Michigan -8.5
Iowa St +6.5
Miami -7
Penn St -14 (doubtfull)
Idaho -3
South Carolina +6.5
Oregon +3

**Cougar Bait** · 10-25-09, 08:12 PM

Navy and Michigan should be plays (from my end). Wow your program nailed the Florida line exactly.

**wal66** · 10-25-09, 08:16 PM

Alot of them come out really really close generally.

Cincinnati is one I want to hit as early as I can. Sometimes it's Tuesday before my site has some games though.

**wal66** · 10-25-09, 08:18 PM

Haven't looked into things yet and I do know Pike is out but looking at what South Forida did to Syracuse even without all the turnovers Cincy should roll here.

One of the bigger things to really look into is when the program favors one team and the line favors the other. It is generally worth a very close look. Like Oregon/USC this week.

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-25-09, 08:59 PM

Hey starting off , wanted to ask about the program something I noticed big time I HOPE

your program Often GIves lines for instance a game where albany is -1 on the game line but your program thinks its -8

wanted to know how what is the record those such games programming a game you like giving atleast 6 points in your favor wanted to

know the record of those games if it had an extra ten points to go along with it

Im thinking and looking at it as it would be near perfect for the last couple of weeks , if they had been teased at ten

**wal66** · 10-25-09, 09:11 PM

Crusher.........this won't answer your question completely but for example this past weekend Georgia Tech, Oklahoma, TCU, Penn St and 3 other teams that I can't remember right now were favored by the program as better then 4 points over the listed line that I chose not to play. I opted to play the dogs that were favored against the line this past weekend and it was my mistake to do so.

Ultimately it comes down to what the individual can do after these games are filtered out by the program that makes the difference. I see some real potential here already but if I miss something or I lean to heavy on something else then I have failed.

This week I am gonna go out of my way to list everything that I am doing on every game i end up playing. I doubt very seriosuly if I will do this every week as it's alot of work.

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-25-09, 10:10 PM

hey want get real far into it now , this is just a gander through , but your games will be di sected , disected once again , ate then spit out and re sown by our team

I am sure they all will turn out to be great picks but our jobs is to try to prove em bad if we fail to do so , well u get it

here goes for now , will get onto all team injuries here soon

your games

Northern illinois
still has QB in question

OHIO
chriss Garrett leading rusher will out
alsothey lost qb 9-14
will have to look into how they have been doing since that loss also

SMU
QB questionable 10/25
If the line starts going up should be the news we are looking for on this game

NAVY
both sb
and QB out has failed to cover the opening line the last 2 weeks with out him
navy hasnt been the same team with out QB , Navy

MICHIGAN
carlos BROWn RB still questionable

IWOA STATE
austin arnaud QB starter
alexander robinson star RB questionable

MIAMI
Losing marcus fortson proves vital
in games he hasnt played last game being Oklahoma , to add he also missed the Vtech game , he is very important to this miami Defensive squad and will be missed all season now

OREGON
gete even stronger this week
getting one more key guy back ,
last week the lines didnt count on Oregon getting 7 starters all back in the same week

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-25-09, 10:13 PM

hey man this doesnt mean anything right now
it may at the end of this process , just

part of the procedure , I start off with injury reports
and finish with inury reports

im off to get all the injury reports they will be posted on my notebook thread
see ya man

Hope this grows to a sucessful process , we are always looking for good guys for the team

we picked up the best big ten guy this weekend

5-0 this week for him

**wal66** · 10-25-09, 10:17 PM

I like what your doing there. It's the same thing I will be looking at. Today is just a numbers day trying to weed out the games I don't want to focus on. Tomorrow I satrt capping things. As the week moves if I see some RLM then I may go back over some of the games I initially threw out. All depends. You and your team are well ahead of where I am tonight though.

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-25-09, 10:28 PM

seems like we have the same exact process , just a couple of stages are different
I try not to get the lines until sunday night

or even monday morning

the games move during that time , I dont want it to affect My pick selections

but certainly I will have about 15-20 games to dialate then so on just like youve done here , I just spend so much time with injury reports i dont want to spend 4or 5 hours on agame and then figure out in 3 seconds that its a bad pick

see you bud , Ill stay on my own thread for a bit

**joeygats** · 10-25-09, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by LINE-crush-ER

seems like we have the same exact process , just a couple of stages are different
I try not to get the lines until sunday night

or even monday morning

the games move during that time , I dont want it to affect My pick selections

but certainly I will have about 15-20 games to dialate then so on just like youve done here , I just spend so much time with injury reports i dont want to spend 4or 5 hours on agame and then figure out in 3 seconds that its a bad pick

see you bud , Ill stay on my own thread for a bit

you guys are my heroes. plz keep up the great work.

**wal66** · 10-25-09, 10:42 PM

Crusher .....you're welcome anytime guy. Nothing wrong with discussion.

**HoulihansTX** · 10-26-09, 01:33 AM

East Carolina -4 (NO op)
Northern Illinois -9.5 (Lean Opposite)
Ohio U -7 (Yes)
Cincinnati -14.5 (YEs)
SMU +16.5 (Starting QB inj)
Navy -7 (Lean Opposite)
Michigan -8.5 (no opinion)
Iowa St +6.5 (no opinion)
Miami -7 (Yes Big)
Penn St -14 (doubtfull) (Yes BIG)
Idaho -3 (You know how I feel about this team)
South Carolina +6.5 (no Opinion/ Leaned UNDER)
Oregon +3 (Yes)

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-26-09, 04:06 AM

hey man just wanted to let you know that Northern Illinois was one of the first games that I was able to get my part done with

that game was a pass and will now go through the process of credibility

so ill get it back in a couple of days or so and let you know

but certainly youll know something by friday

But it looked very good something like syracues stopped akron to zero yards

and nothern illinois stopped their opponent last week actually it was negative yards rushing to miami ohio

I am guessing will have near the same with akron from northern illinois

akron has one of the worst inury situations to date , as you know syracuse was one of my top plays last week

based on that matter alone , so its get my stamp approval but in our process it doesnt matter what i like got four guys

got to get in on it before its our pick just though you like to know on this one

ill keep the post much smaller next time , and update you daily to save posts

been so busy , I at the point i dont like bothering anyone anymore

**WhatAboutMeBitch** · 10-26-09, 06:36 AM

interesting stuff

**BigdaddyQH** · 10-26-09, 10:19 AM

We took Miami at-6.5 on the lead out. If you grab them today, you may still get-7. If you wait, you are going to be giving more points. The problem I see you having is that the longer you wait, the more work you have to do, because the lines are in constant flux. In some cases, it will not matter, but in cases that involve key numbers (Miami for example), it will. You have a lot of games involving key numbers. Oregon was +4.5 on the lead out. That is how quick and drastic the lines can change.

**mcbaseball10** · 10-26-09, 10:39 AM

Looking at the lines today Wal, I have some similar interests in a few of your games. I haven't fully dissected yet, but these are my leans so far.

Three good cappers Wal, Houl, LineCrusher putting their heads together in this thread will benefit everybody

Cincy -14.5
Toledo -6 (if QB is playing)
Midd Tenn +1.5
N. Illinois -9.5
Miami -7
UCONN -8

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-26-09, 05:18 PM

ole miss , ga tech , utepp, penn state , tennesee , ok state , oregon

Our most popular Picks
one guy has yet to get his picks in for me
it seems like it might be fun once again
got lot of underdogs to mactchup also that excites me after only having one underdog last week Iowa who initailly was a favorite

If you care I would also like to see your monday picks
Just a poll at this point want hold them against you ,

Its a part of my process that I would also like to include you in

**wal66** · 10-26-09, 05:37 PM

Tuesday October 27, 2009
9:00 PM
East Carolina @ Memphis

Records:
East Carolina 4-3 (2-4 ATS) 1-3 ATS on the road
Memphis 2-5 (2-5 ATS) 2-2 ATS at home

Trends:
East Carolina is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Under is 9-2 in last 11 conference games.
Memphis is 2-6 ATS in last 8 games overall.

Head to Head:
East Carolina is 6-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in last 10 meetings.
East Carolina won last years game 30-10 at home.

Common Opponents:
Both teams have played Marshall. ECU beat Marshall 21-17 on the road. Memphis lost 27-16 at home.
Both teams have also played Central Florida. ECU won 19-14 at home. Memphis lost 32-14 on the road.

Offense:
East Carolina averages 25.1 ppg.
Memphis averages 21.4 ppg.

Defense:
East Carolina allows an average of 23.1 ppg.
Memphis allows an average of 29.9 ppg.

My Take:
I compared the power rankings of each team’s opponents played so far and it was basically even. Just a decimal point edge to East Carolina but nowhere enough to give an edge. So I looked at games of common opponents and this is where I see a decided advantage to East Carolina since they beat both opponents the two have in common and Memphis lost to both. Both teams have a few minor injuries that I could find but nothing that should really affect this week’s game.

Program:
East Carolina by 10 which gives me 6 points of value against current line.

Play:

East Carolina -4*

**wal66** · 10-26-09, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by LINE-crush-ER

ole miss , ga tech , utepp, penn state , tennesee , ok state , oregon

Our most popular Picks
one guy has yet to get his picks in for me
it seems like it might be fun once again
got lot of underdogs to mactchup also that excites me after only having one underdog last week Iowa who initailly was a favorite

If you care I would also like to see your monday picks
Just a poll at this point want hold them against you ,

Its a part of my process that I would also like to include you in

Crush this is the only game I have finished at this time. The others will be tomorrow or even Wedensday maybe. I do know there will be tleast one of the games you have listed as one of my plays from my original list.

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-26-09, 05:52 PM

hey just to add I made a don write in this thread post , you might also want to do so

certainly both forums will be needed in thislenghty process you have mentioned

Memphis is accross the board the team we try to bet against every week
We will not see that game until tomorrow

we do mid week games days of , it seems they can actually be over thought out

You have to consider the teams that play on these night are nt used to the tv exposure

But certaiinly I am going to take your pick to save the time and effort

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-26-09, 05:53 PM

FYI
monday picks are just lines we liked at first glimpse ,

Didnt know if you had a couple that stood out or not

**wal66** · 10-26-09, 05:56 PM

Crush......Oregon is definately on my radar and I am looking at Georgia Tech and Penn St a little further.

**Cougar Bait** · 10-26-09, 06:02 PM

One thing I did notice is ECU hasn't played very well on the road...still looking at this one...Memphis has a lot of trouble stopping the run.

**WesJeffery** · 10-26-09, 06:37 PM

Great Post Guys, Love your insight on games. Wal, you rated East Carolina a 4 Star, how confident are you? And on your rating system do you have 5 or 10 starS?

**wal66** · 10-26-09, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by WesJeffery

Great Post Guys, Love your insight on games. Wal, you rated East Carolina a 4 Star, how confident are you? And on your rating system do you have 5 or 10 starS?

Not a 4 star play. The line is -4.

The * indicates number of units on a game. Every * equals 1 unit.

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-26-09, 06:51 PM

My dad says the EC game will be at 6 by game time
we really need to get a internet betting service ,

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-26-09, 07:06 PM

this conference has nothing to do really with stats
East Carolina gives up yards on both sides of the filed
they just dont allow points when you get into the redzone
you can find teams that just cant get into em memphis is one and
East Carolina continueds to give this conference problems with scoring in the red
Uab a similar team to memphis they look so even but they just fail to score points
Oh
last week Southern Miss Qb against Memphis
will hudgens is now a a new struggling starter for southern miss
Patrick Pickney (EM ) shouldnt have problems putting up much better numbers

**wal66** · 10-26-09, 07:06 PM

I'm down so it can climb to wherever now.

Crush 2 questions for you. How old are you? Are you American? I generally make-up voices when reading differnt posters replies or threads and I'm drawing a blank on you.