I know college football is totally nuts, but this line makes no sense at all. I realize the Badgers are tough at Camp Randall, and home field counts for a lot when talking about the adrenaline of 18 to 22 year olds, but come on...I was blown away when I saw it as a pick em, and even more so at Iowa +3. Its not like Wisc. has dominated Iowa recently, and coming off last weeks performances, I cant see what the oddsmakers are thinking. Everyone saw what Wisc was able to do against a solid D like OSU, and Iowa's is solid as well. Wisc may win this game, but shouldnt the line absolutely be somewhere between -3 and -7 for Iowa? What am I missing here? Is there a significant injury I dont know about?
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Line opened at Iowa -1 IIRCComment -
Did you watch Wisky's game against OSU? Take away the Picks and that kickoff return, and Wisky is easily covering that game, with a possible chance to win SU as a huge dog. Look at the time of possession the Badgers had in that game as well. I was really impressed with Wisky's play. IMHO, Iowa is overrated, they struggled against Michigan, and I rate Wisky's defence higher than Michigan. Add to the fact they are playing at home, and there is a very good chance at covering.
What is making me hesitate is that Pags recommended I avoid this play.Comment -
The public/wiseguys hammerred the Badgers at +1...........and you are asking if the line should have been +7?
I made the line IOWA -1 early Sunday morning.........smack where it basically opened at.
Yes, I'm surprised at the line movement.
Do I like Iowa at +3, I did not say that..........yet anyway.Comment -
Tough call, line seems right on. Slight lean to Wiscy if line drops back to -2.5 or less.Comment -
This game is a no-play for me, but I'll play devil's advocate for you since you seem to be asking. It's interesting that you mention last week's performances; I had the exact opposite read from you. Wisconsin impressed me, particularly on defense; Wisconsin outgained Ohio State 368-184; it was basically three big plays that cost Wisconsin the game. In addition, Wisconsin seemed to move the ball fairly comfortably against the Buckeyes vaunted defense; I particularly like that Wisconsin's offense has a nice run/pass balance.
On the other hand, I was underwhelmed with Iowa at home. Michigan's defense is garbage so Iowa's scoring was not surprising; however I was expecting Iowa's defense to step up a bit and control Michigan's offense, which they failed to do. Throw in Camp Randall, RLM in favor of Wisconsin, and I wouldn't feel comfortable touching Iowa.Comment -
Take Iowa if you are betting today because you can't take bad lines constantly and win. If you were going to take Wiscy, you should be on them already. Pass and find another game to wager. This is a big game on National TV I assume so let it go and enjoy it for the game.
Best of luckComment -
This is the 1st game that jumped out at me. I took Wisconsin at a pk late Sunday night Monday morning. I would think twice if you think Iowa is a lock or almost a given.If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!Comment -
I agree with your analysis of the Mich/Iowa game last week. But when looking at the Wisc/OSU game I must disagree. Just because the Badgers gained over 300 yards doesnt mean too much if they couldnt turn the yards into points. And the defensive effort appears good until you consider the fact that Pryor and OSU's offense has been pretty much stagnant all year. Plus I cant ignore the 2 picks returned for touchdowns. But thanks I appreciate the insight...i may not play this either since everyone seems to be on Wisc.Comment -
Thanks for all the advice...I definitely dont see Iowa as a lock, just think they deserved the 3 point chalk after beating Penn St. and Michigan and starting 6 - 0.Comment -
Penn St.= overrated
Michigan=above average offense w/below average defense=averageComment -
Wisconsin is the play. Ohio St. only put up like 160 yds on them. If not for the 2 pick 6's and kickoff return I think the buckeyes get upset. Iowa is due for a loss and I think this is the perfect spot.Comment -
i'm not sure why everyone here thinks wisconsin outplayed ohio st? i agree that wi should've covered, but let's assume ohio st doesn't return that kickoff back and doesn't return the interceptions.
isn't it fair to say they could've had another 100 yds + of offense on those 3 possessions?
they didn't do anything except for the last drive of the first half against the badgers defense, but they really didn't have that many possessions due to the special teams/defensive touchdowns.Comment -
that said even though iowa +3 appears to have some value, i think the line is fair where it is.
iowa was/is overrated and the badgers are underrated. these are pretty evenly matched teams imho.Comment -
Wisconsin at anything -2.5 is great but I think they win the game by 7+ points.
Take away the Penn State game, and look at the rest of Iowa's resume. Weak, weak, weak.
I would be shocked if Wisconsin does not win this game.Comment -
Picks returned for touchdowns are generally fluke plays, I dont know how you can use them to bet against the team that threw em. The Badgers were in the red zone for one of them, could easily be a 14 point swing there and that puts the game down to the wire. Yeah I'm a homer to take it for what it's worth, but this Badger team is solid and I think they take this game.Originally posted by Dark HorseComment -
Not necessarily from what I saw. Also in the scenario you presented Ohio state still gets outgained by 70 yards. I'm not trying to play the "woulda coulda shoulda" game, Ohio State made the big plays and deserved to win, but my point was outside of those three plays Wisconsin actually looked like the better team overall.Comment -
Wisconsin will be pissed coming home off of that ridiculous loss to OSU. Wisconsin -3 or stay away. Im leanin stay away.Comment -
fair enough twin cities.
but i think i could pick at least 80% of all football games, take away the winning team's 3 best plays, and say the other team outplayed them.
i agree though wisconsin looked good enough to win that game or at the very least cover. that seems to be the difference between a 20th-50th type team and one with big playmakers at skill positions/corner/special teams.Comment -
I say Iowa is the Square pick of the week just like last week was Georgia!
If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!Comment -
I post this with all the respect in the world, Sir.
If you make even 20% of your picks with that thought process, I would recommend that you...
1. Get a job.
2. If you have a job, stop gambling.
3. If you have a job, work OT to gamble.
4. Definitely Seek to understand More about Sports betting.
BestComment -
I think MSU's point is that it's a good bet either way; I don't think he's saying it has the same value either way.Comment -
Agreed if MSU is saying that he caps a game as Wisky -7 and the line is +1 he takes them, or if the line is -3 he takes them.....either way he bets on them cause he had them capped at -7.
Obviously he would prefer to have them at +1 thoughComment -
Understood
Point to pass is Bettting bad numbers will torture us esp if we don't practice good money management.
No offense meant for sure. I wish all of you well.Comment -
You are right too general. Always want to get the best number possible and money management is something that I need a college course on cause I am horrible with it. Working on it thoughComment -
I think it is important to point out that both games last week were nationally televised games that drew big audiences because of the high profile matchups. Iowa won but it was a battle and Wisconsin got beat by probably one the the top 5 defenses in college football. The front 7 of OSU made it really tough for Wisconsin to get anything going through the air. If you actually watched both games, I was more impressed with the Badgers ability to move the ball than Iowa's. Stanzi has the unique ability to put mistakes behind him whereas Tolzien...I am not sure if he's quite there yet.
My guess is you saw exactly what Vegas wanted you to see...most people will look at the final scores of these games instead of analyzing game film. They see an 18 point loss to Ohio State and an undefeated Iowa team getting points...seems easy. I think this will be a close game...but to assume Iowa should be favored is flawed in my opinion. I think the best play here is no play...should be a great game. I haven't found a smoking gun yet, but am willing to listen to some reasoning...
Good luck with what you decide.
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it seems that everybody's arguement for Wisconsin is that "MINUS 2 TURNOVERS AND A RETURN, THEY WERE IN THE GAME WITH OSU". Here's the the thing, being able to take care of the ball, is a huge factor. if wisconsin has proven that against a good d, they can't take care of the ball, i wouldn't feel comfortable taking them especially giving up points. Say what you want about Iowa barely getting by Michigan, but they still racked up the Win. And give some credit to the Penn State win, they aren't awful, i agree PSU is overrated but they still have some value. I feel more comfortable taking Iowa plus they are getting points. I watched Wisconsin inch past a very mediocre Minnesota team and i didn't even want to take them last week, but everybody's logic pointed to Wisky so i caved in and took them. This week, same scenario. But this week, i'm sticking to Iowa. I wouldn't bet the game by itself, but i'll use it for my weekly $5 10 team parlay. BOL everybody.Comment -
Take Wisc at anything under -3...Comment -
General, thanks for the advice, I appreciate any insight as I know that I am not the world's best sports gambler, but I have a very high knowledge on sports in general. I do not gamble with enough money that it will effect my life or my family if I either win or lose.
I have had moderate success in college football over the last few years. I have two jobs and enjoy doing well at both of them.
Best of luck to you.Comment -
Ackem19, that is the best reasoning Ive heard yet, but maybe thats just because we are looking at this game the same way. But others have made me see why the line is where its at. The game is looking more and more like one to stay away from, could easily go either way.Comment -
thank you, sir. and maybe we are looking at this game the wrong way, which is why its only on my "lotto ticket" parlay haha.Comment -
People have short memories.... a win vs. Penn State is not impressive..... What else have they done?
They needed not ONE but TWO blocked FG just to win vs. a FBS teamComment
