Just going to add a couple numbers to support your point on this as it is very similar to the angle I'm approaching with this game.
UNC has a 0.50 point/play ratio, UVA has 0.29.
UNC allows 0.37 points/play, UVA allows 0.45.
UNC is at +0.4 turnover margin/game, UVA is at -1.3.
I don't understand the motivation issue, but then I usually try to keep the X-factors out of my capping as much as possible. It's too hard to guess whether UNC will be de-motivated due to the bowl-ban or increase motivation in their final 2 possible games of the season. Are they stoked to play an ACC conference "rival-ish" or are they going to throw a win UVA's way for ACC representation in the bowl games?
I've got this one capped at UNC 38 - UVA 27, but stranger things have happened.
Still in "wait and see mode" to see if I can get the line to drop to -3 without the crazy juice, if not I'll sell whatever points
5D lets me.