UNC @ UVA: Post your angle and score prediction

[WAHOOS]

Obviously I'm a little biased, but I'd like to hear what other people have to say about this game. I've already got this game locked in for UVA -3 and Over 62

For UVA:
Last 2 games (since bye) shown improvement in offense and defense
UNC 0-5 ATS road games
UNC is 1-14 SU @ UVA since 1981. 1-7 ATS @ UVA L8
Emotional factor: needs 2/2 wins for bowl eligibility
UNC lacking emotional factor: Could care less as they can't play in ACC Championship or bowl

For UNC:
UVA is 1-10-1 ATS
Gio Bernard... yeah... he's kinda good
??? What else


So far, I see this as most have seen it: A coin flip. However I give UVA a strong edge with the emotional factor and fact that this is a primetime game at UVA where UNC has had problems playing in the past. I remember rushing the field 6 years ago when we beat them in overtime on an ESPN thursday night.

Prediction: UNC 31 UVA 34

[camelbreath$]

UNC 41 - UVA 28

UNC trying to spoil UVA's bowl chances. Like that angle. UVA has no one to combat Gio Bernard and I think they will load the box exposing them to at least 3 50+ pass plays. Over is definitely in play

[BiffTFinancial]

Heels, 37-31. think over is best angle.

UNC will run on UVA with little problem (UNC 5.19 ypc vs UVA 4.16 opp ypc). UVA will be plenty motivated, but they can't tackle and have an absurdly bad opp yards/point (11.9). UNC will drive and score on UVA. UNC defense isn't great and UVA should be able to move the ball, too, but they don't execute and capitalize nearly as well on offense as UNC (UNC 12.1 yards/point vs UVA 17 yds/point).

[guy Fawkes]

Heels, 37-31. think over is best angle.

UNC will run on UVA with little problem (UNC 5.19 ypc vs UVA 4.16 opp ypc). UVA will be plenty motivated, but they can't tackle and have an absurdly bad opp yards/point (11.9). UNC will drive and score on UVA. UNC defense isn't great and UVA should be able to move the ball, too, but they don't execute and capitalize nearly as well on offense as UNC (UNC 12.1 yards/point vs UVA 17 yds/point).

Just going to add a couple numbers to support your point on this as it is very similar to the angle I'm approaching with this game.

UNC has a 0.50 point/play ratio, UVA has 0.29.
UNC allows 0.37 points/play, UVA allows 0.45.
UNC is at +0.4 turnover margin/game, UVA is at -1.3.

I don't understand the motivation issue, but then I usually try to keep the X-factors out of my capping as much as possible. It's too hard to guess whether UNC will be de-motivated due to the bowl-ban or increase motivation in their final 2 possible games of the season. Are they stoked to play an ACC conference "rival-ish" or are they going to throw a win UVA's way for ACC representation in the bowl games?

I've got this one capped at UNC 38 - UVA 27, but stranger things have happened.

Still in "wait and see mode" to see if I can get the line to drop to -3 without the crazy juice, if not I'll sell whatever points 5D lets me.

[coitus_maximus]

UNC 42 Virginia 28

UNC embarassed last week. Virginia not a great D team.

[Rous]

Unc 31 - 27 uva

[BiffTFinancial]

Just going to add a couple numbers to support your point on this as it is very similar to the angle I'm approaching with this game.

UNC has a 0.50 point/play ratio, UVA has 0.29.
UNC allows 0.37 points/play, UVA allows 0.45.
UNC is at +0.4 turnover margin/game, UVA is at -1.3.

I don't understand the motivation issue, but then I usually try to keep the X-factors out of my capping as much as possible. It's too hard to guess whether UNC will be de-motivated due to the bowl-ban or increase motivation in their final 2 possible games of the season. Are they stoked to play an ACC conference "rival-ish" or are they going to throw a win UVA's way for ACC representation in the bowl games?

I've got this one capped at UNC 38 - UVA 27, but stranger things have happened.

Still in "wait and see mode" to see if I can get the line to drop to -3 without the crazy juice, if not I'll sell whatever points 5D lets me.

good stuff, thanks for posting it. for what it's worth, i see motivational issues as a wash here. this is a rivalry game and both teams will be taking it seriously. UVA is a thursday night home dog (decent spot), but that's about it. trying to decide between UNC TT over 32' and game over 61'. UNC has kicking issues, so the real question is, can UNC score 5 TDs. i say yes. still trying to decide. i have this game at something like UNC, 35-30, but with a high ceiling. against good offenses (Miami, LT, GT) UVA has given up 40+ per game. against decent offenses that didn't turn it over 5 times (TCU, Duke but not NC State) they've given up 27 and 42 respectively. the thing that i like most is UNC's commitment to tempo. they will want to run 80 plays.

[guy Fawkes]

Still in "wait and see mode" to see if I can get the line to drop to -3 without the crazy juice, if not I'll sell whatever points 5D lets me.

It's getting near kickoff, line never budged. In the end sold it to UNC -6 @ +134.

[BiffTFinancial]

It's getting near kickoff, line never budged. In the end sold it to UNC -6 @ +134.

i like it. BOL, man.

[thfootball]

I've looked and read what i can. I'm going with Nc straight up. 20 bucks, and if others are betting smaller then the best to them

[BiffTFinancial]

It's getting near kickoff, line never budged. In the end sold it to UNC -6 @ +134.

went with with UNC TT over 32'. here's hoping we both hit, certainly correlated.

[guy Fawkes]

went with with UNC TT over 32'. here's hoping we both hit, certainly correlated.

Still early, but looks good so far. UVA's corners look outmatched on both ends, UNC's defense doesn't look tons better but I don't think anyone expected anything different. Stay hungry Tarheels.

[Machine Choice]

By no means am I confident right now with UVA +3.5. But I will say this: UVA's drives are consuming tons more clock time, which means that UNC's weak-ass defense will wear out first.

[BeantownBlue]

I like my UNC ML and UNC total over 33 so far. GL.

[camelbreath$]

How pissed is anyone with Over 31 in the first half?? that sucks if you have that bet

Gotta hope UNC scores again in the next minute if you have that ticket

[BiffTFinancial]

went with with UNC TT over 32'. here's hoping we both hit, certainly correlated.

[WAHOOS]

Looks like I forgot a crucial part of my analysis. Mike London can't coach worth squat and the 2 QB system never, ever works

Took an opportune unc ML to cover my over and UVA bet. GG Carolina

[camelbreath$]

UNC 41 - UVA 28

UNC trying to spoil UVA's bowl chances. Like that angle. UVA has no one to combat Gio Bernard and I think they will load the box exposing them to at least 3 50+ pass plays. Over is definitely in play

UNC loves playing spoiler, they will be a solid bet through the end of the year. Wish UVA would put up a few more points though!

[hurricane1091]

UNC did their part. Hoping for two more TDs, don't care by who.

[guy Fawkes]

went with with UNC TT over 32'. here's hoping we both hit, certainly correlated.

Grats man, good call on the numbers.

[BiffTFinancial]

Looks like I forgot a crucial part of my analysis. Mike London can't coach worth squat and the 2 QB system never, ever works

Took an opportune unc ML to cover my over and UVA bet. GG Carolina

London was at W&M when i was there. he's a nice guy. as a coach...he's a nice guy.

[BiffTFinancial]

Grats man, good call on the numbers.

thanks, nice work on your plus-money Heels play. really like the selling points strategy and may look into it (perhaps with K State or Vandy this weekend). too bad can't sell points on TTs. glad that i went with Heels TT over rather than game over, that's for sure.