Cfb 2014

[thunderous]

Bank, you're back! Great to see you, brotha. hope that all is well with you - i've been a little concerned that you might have run into trouble out rioting in Ferguson, heh heh. don't be a stranger - i'm pretty much focusing on CFB this season and will largely be tailing guys like yourself and pacocn in NFL.

oh, and one point that is obvious: fade Masterson every chance you can down the stretch. he is not right physically, never was all season, and it will hurt him (esp with umps with narrow strike zones).

After reading this I had decided to play the cubs but in all of the CFB frenzy missed it

[TheBetBuysDanK]

BiffT: crushing these early lines. nice work, man!

[svenodds]

GL this season

[Smutbucket]

nice week 1 bud, keep up the good work, looking forward to discussing some totals with you this week

[biglance68]

Really like Baylor over first half. Art Briles is always pedal to the metal in the first half. I expect SMU to score some too.

[BiffTFinancial]

CFB Week One updated card
1* Vanderbilt TT under 32 - WINNER
1* Rutgers/Washington State over 63 (-105) - WINNER
1* Colorado State/Colorado under 59 (-105) - WINNER
1* Virginia +21 - WINNER
1* Appalachian State/Michigan over 54 (-105) - WINNER
1* Rice +21 - LOSER
1* Arkansas +18' - LOSER
1* Ohio U/Kent State under 47' - WINNER
1* Florida State -18 - LOSER

6-3 +2.7u

reality rebounded after 5-0, responded with 1-3 finish. oh well, no complaints about a 6-3 start. deserved every one of the losses.

[BiffTFinancial]

BiffT: crushing these early lines. nice work, man!

thanks! i kept track of closers for all of my games and was pleased with the work i did getting relatively good numbers. and, where i didn't get great numbers/missed good number (Rutgers/Wazzu over, OU/Kent under), it didn't cost me.

[BiffTFinancial]

Really like Baylor over first half. Art Briles is always pedal to the metal in the first half. I expect SMU to score some too.

i'm leaning Baylor TT over 54', though i couldn't talk you out of 1H over. Baylor 2013 home point totals (from early to late in season): 69, 70, 70, 73, 71, 41 (Sooners), 63, 30 (UT). So, they were limited by the only two defenses on their home schedule with a semblance of a pulse, blew away 54' points on the rest. Also hung 59 vs Stangs in Waco first game 2013. Thinking they'll want to strut on opening weekend, christening of new stadium.

also like Utah State tonight, but missed good number. gotta think on that. first taking a look at baseball, have time to decide on CFB.

[BiffTFinancial]

GL this season

You too, svenodds, good to see you.

[foggyboy]

Looking forward to your picks

[BiffTFinancial]

nice week 1 bud, keep up the good work, looking forward to discussing some totals with you this week

hey, smut, look forward to your total thoughts too!

[BiffTFinancial]

i'm leaning Baylor TT over 54', though i couldn't talk you out of 1H over. Baylor 2013 home point totals (from early to late in season): 69, 70, 70, 73, 71, 41 (Sooners), 63, 30 (UT). So, they were limited by the only two defenses on their home schedule with a semblance of a pulse, blew away 54' points on the rest. Also hung 59 vs Stangs in Waco first game 2013. Thinking they'll want to strut on opening weekend, christening of new stadium.

also like Utah State tonight, but missed good number. gotta think on that. first taking a look at baseball, have time to decide on CFB.

leans for today:
Baylor TT over 54'
Teaser: Utah St (+10')/Baylor (-26') (-110)

[biglance68]

I've got Baylor first half TT, game TT, first half over, game over

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Baylor team total over 54'

CFB Week One updated card
1* Vanderbilt TT under 32 - WINNER
1* Rutgers/Washington State over 63 (-105) - WINNER
1* Colorado State/Colorado under 59 (-105) - WINNER
1* Virginia +21 - WINNER
1* Appalachian State/Michigan over 54 (-105) - WINNER
1* Rice +21 - LOSER
1* Arkansas +18' - LOSER
1* Ohio U/Kent State under 47' - WINNER
1* Florida State -18 - LOSER
1* Baylor TT over 54'

BOL to all today. heading out shortly to fill myself with blue crabs at buddy's house (Labor Day tradition, they order them in from Chesapeake Bay), back later tonight for Baylor game, Tribe/Royals game. gonna be a great day.

[BiffTFinancial]

I've got Baylor first half TT, game TT, first half over, game over

Let's get em.

[biglance68]

RTR

[SilverTongueFox]

Biff, do you have a line yet for Zona/UTSA? My book doesn't but swear I saw Zona -7 somewhere. I get UTSA is experienced and I'm sure they'll compete for CUSA title but way overmatched here. Zona is a darkhorse in the Pac12 South. Love this at -7 if that truly the line.

I'm going to be in Vegas this weekend so getting an early start in next weekends card.

BTW, I got your email. Thanks brother.

[BiffTFinancial]

CFB Week One final card
1* Vanderbilt TT under 32 - WINNER
1* Rutgers/Washington State over 63 (-105) - WINNER
1* Colorado State/Colorado under 59 (-105) - WINNER
1* Virginia +21 - WINNER
1* Appalachian State/Michigan over 54 (-105) - WINNER
1* Rice +21 - LOSER
1* Arkansas +18' - LOSER
1* Ohio U/Kent State under 47' - WINNER
1* Florida State -18 - LOSER
1* Baylor TT over 54' - LOSER

6-4 +1.6u

tough breaks on Baylor injuries, goal line fumbles. thought we had that one. weird for 6-4 to feel like a such a failure, but i suppose that's a good thing. after 5-0 start, could've been so much more. oh well, onward and upward. lean Miami +3' tonight but passing.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, do you have a line yet for Zona/UTSA? My book doesn't but swear I saw Zona -7 somewhere. I get UTSA is experienced and I'm sure they'll compete for CUSA title but way overmatched here. Zona is a darkhorse in the Pac12 South. Love this at -7 if that truly the line.

I'm going to be in Vegas this weekend so getting an early start in next weekends card.

BTW, I got your email. Thanks brother.

Arizona is -7 at 5D at this very moment. i am getting early start on CFB card today (also treating myself to some Labor Day bases). First lean that i am capping: Akron. opened at +17', has already dropped to +15'. Zips are definitely a team on my watch list. i will take a look at Zona/UTSA sometime today for sure and post up with thoughts.

Have fun in Vegas. saw a buddy last night who told me he will be out there in two weeks and looking for me to send him some picks. always makes sense to start on CFB early, esp early in season. those lines will move and timing impacts value greatly. i think that CSU/Colorado total moved liked 11 points last week.

Glad you got email. Please let me know if you have any thoughts - all constructive criticism appreciated.

[Smutbucket]

Im a known homer....but the lack of respect for duke Johnson is ridiculous, duke alone should put up 21 points on this Louisville defense....whats your projecting total on that game?

already have the TT locked in...considering a teaser with Miami +9 and over 46...

[SilverTongueFox]

Arizona is -7 at 5D at this very moment. i am getting early start on CFB card today (also treating myself to some Labor Day bases). First lean that i am capping: Akron. opened at +17', has already dropped to +15'. Zips are definitely a team on my watch list. i will take a look at Zona/UTSA sometime today for sure and post up with thoughts.

Have fun in Vegas. saw a buddy last night who told me he will be out there in two weeks and looking for me to send him some picks. always makes sense to start on CFB early, esp early in season. those lines will move and timing impacts value greatly. i think that CSU/Colorado total moved liked 11 points last week.

Glad you got email. Please let me know if you have any thoughts - all constructive criticism appreciated.

In addition to Zona I picked out a few but out of SEC comfort zone. Not many SEC games on tap this upcoming weekend. So I'm leaning on you. Let me what you think:
Purdue -3 (Chips struggled mightily week 1 vs FCS Mocs)
Toledo +6.5 (Rockets always field competitive team; get Mizzou in Toledo; Mizzou replacing a lot of playmakers on both sides especially offense. According to Steele Mizzou only return 9 starters. Road game, 11am local time kick?)
WKentucky +6 (Hilltoppers not missing a beat w/ HC Brohm. Return 8 starters on an offense w/ enough firepower to keep it close at least.)
Ohio +10 (probably stretching on this one. But Kentucky is still Kentucky. And might be looking ahead as they visit the Swamp the following Saturday).
Duke -19 (Troy looked atrocious last week v UAB. Gave up 300+ rushing. Duke brings back good talent on offense and should run Troy out of Troy.)

Spartans almost 2td dogs. Wow! I kind of lean USC catching a FG. It's just a hunch. USC 1st 22 probably as good as anyone. Being so early in season lack of depth not caught up yet. Sark is a big time coach. I think the twin straight up. Big Blue/Irish over. See plenty of pints in this one.

[SilverTongueFox]

Getting my notes ready for Vegas bc I know it'll be nonstop once I'm there and I want have time to focus. Don't want to make stupid bets. Decided to stay away from Zona. Huge public play, just read this board, spread hasn't moved, I'd probably get buried along with ever other Joe. Although I just don't know how this stays close. I really see Zona competing in the Pac12 South this year. But probably better plays on the board with this fishy line.

I feel I've missed the best lines and now the value is gone on some of my leans: Purdue (now -3.5), Toledo (now +4.5) Mich St (now +12) and USC (now +2).

Have be you spent much time on this weekends games? With a sorry SEC slate I'm probably riding coat tails this weekend.

And dont one be afraid to pass along good tips in baseball, soccer, nfl etc. I know you got smart people in high places.

[BiffTFinancial]

CFB Week Two
1* Akron +14'

[BiffTFinancial]

Im a known homer....but the lack of respect for duke Johnson is ridiculous, duke alone should put up 21 points on this Louisville defense....whats your projecting total on that game?

already have the TT locked in...considering a teaser with Miami +9 and over 46...

hey, Smut, sorry that i didn't respond yesterday. Labor Day sort of got away from me and i never got back on SBR.

[BiffTFinancial]

In addition to Zona I picked out a few but out of SEC comfort zone. Not many SEC games on tap this upcoming weekend. So I'm leaning on you. Let me what you think:
Purdue -3 (Chips struggled mightily week 1 vs FCS Mocs)
Toledo +6.5 (Rockets always field competitive team; get Mizzou in Toledo; Mizzou replacing a lot of playmakers on both sides especially offense. According to Steele Mizzou only return 9 starters. Road game, 11am local time kick?)
WKentucky +6 (Hilltoppers not missing a beat w/ HC Brohm. Return 8 starters on an offense w/ enough firepower to keep it close at least.)
Ohio +10 (probably stretching on this one. But Kentucky is still Kentucky. And might be looking ahead as they visit the Swamp the following Saturday).
Duke -19 (Troy looked atrocious last week v UAB. Gave up 300+ rushing. Duke brings back good talent on offense and should run Troy out of Troy.)

Spartans almost 2td dogs. Wow! I kind of lean USC catching a FG. It's just a hunch. USC 1st 22 probably as good as anyone. Being so early in season lack of depth not caught up yet. Sark is a big time coach. I think the twin straight up. Big Blue/Irish over. See plenty of pints in this one.

i've seen a couple of guys that i respect on UTSA, so i'm passing on that game. not interested in UTSA, mind you, but not going to back Arizona (i still carry a fundamental mistrust of BitchRod).

agree on Purdue. haven't capped that one yet but it definitely jumped out to me. you are correct about Chips W1 struggles. on Boilers side of things, Hazell is good coach, and you have to figure that he'll have them well-prepared for the last time that their schedule will have them favored over a FBS team.

lean Toledo, will be capping that one soon. line should go up above a TD.

will be sure to look at your other three. Ohio U caught my eye initially but have some concerns there - they have little offensive firepower and UK probably will be looking to hang some points (though difficult to gauge them off UT Martin win).

lean Sparty and USC. definitely intrigued by UM/ND over. ND looked so much better on offense with Golson back, and with loss of Diaco and change in scheme, Irish defense should be able to be had (not that you'd know it from Rice's performance last week).

[BiffTFinancial]

Getting my notes ready for Vegas bc I know it'll be nonstop once I'm there and I want have time to focus. Don't want to make stupid bets. Decided to stay away from Zona. Huge public play, just read this board, spread hasn't moved, I'd probably get buried along with ever other Joe. Although I just don't know how this stays close. I really see Zona competing in the Pac12 South this year. But probably better plays on the board with this fishy line.

I feel I've missed the best lines and now the value is gone on some of my leans: Purdue (now -3.5), Toledo (now +4.5) Mich St (now +12) and USC (now +2).

Have be you spent much time on this weekends games? With a sorry SEC slate I'm probably riding coat tails this weekend.

And dont one be afraid to pass along good tips in baseball, soccer, nfl etc. I know you got smart people in high places.

agree on passing on Arizona.

wow, i hadn't checked the line move on Toledo when i made my last post. move to 4' is very unexpected.

i will be getting to work on the card tonight. loaded a lot of info into model yesterday just sitting around watching bases, now it's time to actually do some work.

oh, and i definitely will be on the look-out for bases, soccer, etc., will shoot you emails with whatever i'm playing in general (may be playing just CFB Saturday, though it's always nice to get things going with a soccer winner in the morning).

[SilverTongueFox]

CFB Week Two
1* Akron +14'

Do you see this high scoring. Seems both offenses aired it out in W1. Penn St could be tired from W1 travels. Akron brought back a good core on offense but lost 6 starters on D. They were very poor vs pass last year and Hackensack (I know his name) throws it around pretty good. How do you see this one playing out?

[BiffTFinancial]

One team total I definitely will be eying: Colorado State under. Hoping for 24.

[BiffTFinancial]

Do you see this high scoring. Seems both offenses aired it out in W1. Penn St could be tired from W1 travels. Akron brought back a good core on offense but lost 6 starters on D. They were very poor vs pass last year and Hackensack (I know his name) throws it around pretty good. How do you see this one playing out?

i have it with around 55-56 points, something like PSU, 32-24, so i lean over. that said, i like Zips to keep the final margin at 10 or less better.

[BiffTFinancial]

i won't be betting it, but you could easily justify fading the Buckeyes, backing Hokies +11

agree on UM/ND over, just finished that one. think it will be 60+, something like Irish, 34-28/31-28.

hard not to back Sparty at +12

few other totals worth considering, haven't capped yet:
Wazzu/Nevada over 64'
South Alabama/Kent State under 51
ECU/S Carolina over 63
CSU/Boise under 57' [though like CSU TT under better]

[BiffTFinancial]

In addition to Zona I picked out a few but out of SEC comfort zone. Not many SEC games on tap this upcoming weekend. So I'm leaning on you. Let me what you think:
Purdue -3 (Chips struggled mightily week 1 vs FCS Mocs)
Toledo +6.5 (Rockets always field competitive team; get Mizzou in Toledo; Mizzou replacing a lot of playmakers on both sides especially offense. According to Steele Mizzou only return 9 starters. Road game, 11am local time kick?)
WKentucky +6 (Hilltoppers not missing a beat w/ HC Brohm. Return 8 starters on an offense w/ enough firepower to keep it close at least.)
Ohio +10 (probably stretching on this one. But Kentucky is still Kentucky. And might be looking ahead as they visit the Swamp the following Saturday).
Duke -19 (Troy looked atrocious last week v UAB. Gave up 300+ rushing. Duke brings back good talent on offense and should run Troy out of Troy.)

Spartans almost 2td dogs. Wow! I kind of lean USC catching a FG. It's just a hunch. USC 1st 22 probably as good as anyone. Being so early in season lack of depth not caught up yet. Sark is a big time coach. I think the twin straight up. Big Blue/Irish over. See plenty of pints in this one.

really liking Western Kentucky. i have Illinois by less than a FG (they were really pushed by YSU, while WKU took it to a BGSU team that i expect to be much better than they showed in Week One), and check out these trends from our pal Jeff Grant (posted on his twitter):

Western Kentucky #Hilltoppers are 15-0 ATS in their L15 games as single-digit underdogs
#Illinois Fighting Illini are 1-12 ATS in their L13 games as non-conference single-digit favorites

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Western Kentucky +6

CFB Week Two updated card
1* Akron +14'
1* Western Kentucky +6

[BiffTFinancial]

odd as it sounds, i think that Colorado -17 on the road might be good. UMass is atrocious and Buffs looked much improved last week vs CSU (watched that game pretty closely since i had the under, and they looked like the better team until they fell apart in the fourth quarter). other than Week Four vs Hawaii, this is hands down the game on CU's schedule in which they are biggest faves. i'd expect them to want a statement game here in advance of Pac-12 play (ASU next week).

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* East Carolina/South Carolina over 63
1* Michigan/Notre Dame over 55'

CFB Week Two updated card
1* Akron +14'
1* Western Kentucky +6
1* East Carolina/South Carolina over 63
1* Michigan/Notre Dame over 55'

[Madison]

adding

1* East Carolina/South Carolina over 63
1* Michigan/Notre Dame over 55'

CFB Week Two updated card
1* Akron +14'
1* Western Kentucky +6
1* East Carolina/South Carolina over 63
1* Michigan/Notre Dame over 55'

Hey Biff, apologies for being a stranger but life got in the way. Just in general a Mich/ND over 55 seems odd no? I always think of that matchup as like 21-17 or the like.

Anyway best of luck and seeing as I have little time to study I will like tail here and there.

Thanks for all your work!!