College Football Over/Under Picks for this week... Enjoy

JTrain · 09-30-13, 08:49 PM

How have these done this season? Do you do any human input for injuries?

usma1992 · 10-01-13, 07:43 AM

Only starting betting last Week--Week5---57.1%. NFL went 9-6 I think. No I don't account for injuries. Too difficult. I want to be able to generate my picks in less than 20 mins. Enjoy Dave

ram1502 · 10-01-13, 09:08 AM

Why are u not betting some games with bigger descrepancies than the ones you are betting??
Utah St/BYU proj 7 prs below line = NB but bama/ga st 6 pts under total and u played under? Is it subjective at all or what?

usma1992 · 10-01-13, 09:17 AM

Fair Question...

I have two overrides based on the amount of attempts per game. Last week, Miami(OH) played Illinois... was a No bet because Miami averaged less than 54 attempts per game. I also installed an override relative to the high side. If Oregon is averaging 85 attempts per game.... why would you ever bet the under... regardless of the Total number. I think at some point you have to put in safeguards. Dave

blumpkin · 10-03-13, 11:47 AM

can you show us the exact score for the teams like you did last week? just curious to some of the team totals.

usma1992 · 10-03-13, 03:58 PM

will do... give me a second...

Jayvegas420 · 10-03-13, 04:52 PM

The Vegas column is supposed to represent what Vegas has set the over/under at, right?
If so. Why is the o/u in Colorado 76? And the o/u in FSU 61?
1/2 of the numbers in the Vegas column aren't legitimate Vegas set lines....so I must be missing something.

usma1992 · 10-04-13, 12:45 AM

7:30 PM	Texas	v	IowaState	29.4	28.1
7:30 PM	WesternKentucky	v	LouisianaMonroe	33.0	20.0
10:00 PM	UCLA	v	Utah	42.0	18.0
8:00 PM	BYU	v	UtahState	20.0	30.0
9:00 PM	Nevada	v	SanDiegoState	36.0	27.5
12:00 PM	MichiganState	v	Iowa	10.5	15.0
12:00 PM	Louisville	v	Temple	57.2	14.0
12:00 PM	EasternMichigan	v	BowlingGreen	18.0	39.0
12:00 PM	BallState	v	Virginia	27.5	18.8
12:00 PM	Maryland	v	FloridaState	30.0	24.0
12:00 PM	Illinois	v	Nebraska	32.0	48.0
12:00 PM	Rutgers	v	SMU	42.0	12.8
12:00 PM	PennState	v	Indiana	27.0	22.0
12:20 PM	GeorgiaState	v	Alabama	18.0	39.0
12:30 PM	UNC	v	VirginiaTech	20.0	30.0
1:00 PM	Army	v	BostonCollege	25.0	20.0
1:00 PM	CMU	v	MiamiOhio	39.0	25.0
1:00 PM	SouthAlabama	v	Troy	27.0	33.0
2:00 PM	TexasSanAntonio	v	Marshall	24.0	48.0
2:00 PM	Ohio	v	Akron	33.0	25.0
3:00 PM	WesternMichigan	v	Toledo	23.4	34.3
3:00 PM	FloridaAtlantic	v	UAB	30.0	27.5
3:30 PM	Clemson	v	Syracuse	39.2	30.6
3:30 PM	NCState	v	WakeForest	36.0	18.7
3:30 PM	NorthTexas	v	Tulane	27.5	27.0
3:30 PM	Georgia	v	Tennessee	39.2	25.5
3:30 PM	Rice	v	Tulsa	33.0	25.0
3:30 PM	KansasState	v	OklahomaState	27.0	38.5
3:30 PM	Minnesota	v	Michigan	17.0	34.3
3:30 PM	NorthernIllinois	v	KentState	27.1	23.0
3:30 PM	Massachusetts	v	BowlingGreen	16.0	42.9
3:30 PM	EastCarolina	v	MTSU	48.0	19.1
4:00 PM	FloridaInt	v	SouthernMiss	21.3	35.4
4:30 PM	UCF	v	Memphis	19.6	17.0
5:00 PM	FresnoState	v	Idaho	62.4	24.0
6:00 PM	Oregon	v	Colorado	36.4	20.8
7:00 PM	Arkansas	v	Florida	15.0	20.0
7:00 PM	LSU	v	MississippiState	24.5	21.3
7:00 PM	TCU	v	Oklahoma	14.0	25.0
7:00 PM	Cincinnati	v	USF	42.5	7.7
7:00 PM	TexasState	v	LaLafayette	35.0	27.0
7:00 PM	NewMexicoState	v	NewMexico	33.0	42.0
7:00 PM	OleMiss	v	Auburn	21.0	25.0
7:30 PM	Missouri	v	Vanderbilt	24.0	27.0
7:30 PM	Kentucky	v	SouthCarolina	20.0	35.8
7:30 PM	ArizonaState	v	NotreDame	30.0	27.0
7:30 PM	LouisianaTech	v	UTEP	33.0	36.0
8:00 PM	WestVirginia	v	Baylor	10.8	35.8
8:00 PM	OhioState	v	Northwestern	38.5	27.5
10:30 PM	Washington	v	Stanford	33.0	27.5
12:00 AM	SanJoseState	v	Hawaii	27.0	22.5
12:00 AM	AirForce	v	Navy	35.0	35.0
12:00 AM	GeorgiaTech	v	Miami	30.0	8.0
12:00 AM	FresnoState	v	Idaho	62.4	24.0
12:00 AM	WashingtonState	v	California	33.3	19.0
12:00 AM	TexasTech	v	Kansas	30.0	15.9

usma1992 · 10-04-13, 12:46 AM

They were the initial lines that came out...

DoYouNotGetIT · 10-04-13, 12:52 AM

Computer over and unders that are generated are use as advice. No system is going to give you a 60% or more advantage, because Vegas already does this. People are searching for a Holy Grail. Illinois vs. Nebraska is probably going under and TCU vs. Oklahoma is probably going over.

gojetsgomoxies · 10-04-13, 12:55 AM

USMA, thanks. your picks have been good...

i read that last year's byu/usu was 6-3 final and that the game hasn't gone over in ages. and it's a pretty high total number

was curious to see how low iowa/msu is for you... like others, i see you with a very low number. one problem of course is turnovers/special teams can affect score alot, but i think the UNDER is good here.

i like memphis UCF low like you show too.. memphis has good D. and i've never thought of UCF as high scoring, although their O seems to be highly ranked.

cal/wsu seems like you have it really low... i'd lean OVER although i prefer to bet UNDERS (fits my eye i guess)

not sure what to think of you posting the predicted scores. you are going to get grief on that oregon/colorado score. oregon could have 35 (u show 36.4) in the first 20 minutes.

i see you have washington over stanford too....... anyway, i realize this is an O/U thread, not an ATS thread. hopefully others have the same spirit.

kobstopa · 10-04-13, 01:00 AM

A lot of under's projection this week. I like Fresno state though

Jayvegas420 · 10-04-13, 05:05 PM

I like Fresno to go over 64 as well but the line is 67 & hasn't budged.
Where did Colorado open at 76?
As far as I can tell it opened at 68 or 69 everywhere.
Same with Western Kentucky.....all books opened it at 48.5 not 55.5.
Texas state opened 55.5, you have 58. The FSU line hasn't gone over 60 in any books I have looked at.

Are we supposed to be ignoring the Vegas over/under & mainly focusing on you projected over/under?

I'm liking this system, I am just still a little confused.

usma1992 · 10-04-13, 07:32 PM

I checked all the lines to verify...

I downloaded them from Betonline on Monday or late Monday night. Regardless, you can adjust the lines. It becomes a No Bet if the projected points are within 5 points of the Vegas line.

So make your own adjustment. I truly appreciate the feedback about the individual games. As far as the Holy Grail comment I agree...everyone is in search of one...but I completely disagree that it not attainable. Yes, Vegas has massive computers that help generate the actual line. But, they also have to create a line that will generate some interest on both sides of the line. My guess is the general public looks at the points scored and the points against and comes up with a general idea of where they want to bet. Secondly, I don't have to bet every game, yet they have to produce a line for every game. That is my or our edge. Vegas is trying to do something completely different...Not sure if I can accomplish it... But I have given it my best effort.. Enjoy Dave

tinhphai · 10-04-13, 08:57 PM

Question,

1:00 PM

CMU

0

MiamiOhio

0

3.5

45.0

64.0

NB

It should have bet as an Over, rite ? Much appreciate the work

Mike Huntertz · 10-04-13, 09:37 PM

Pretty stuff.
You making any dough?

AceKingHigh · 10-04-13, 10:45 PM

How accurate is your system picks? can you tell us please?

bobaphet · 10-04-13, 11:41 PM

I decided to take ur picks and try a 6 team teaser:
Iowa U43.5
Louisville O52
Flordia St U63.5
Illinois O54.5
Fresno St O61
Indiana U71.5

$25 to win $175

Good luck to both of us and thanks for the work!

Jayvegas420 · 10-04-13, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by blumpkin

can you show us the exact score for the teams like you did last week? just curious to some of the team totals.

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

Pretty stuff.
You making any dough?

I think you guys are looking for links to previous week's threads?!

Originally posted by AceKingHigh

How accurate is your system picks? can you tell us please?

usma1992 · 10-05-13, 03:08 AM

Working through the Hiccups...As far as results are concerned. I have tested these parameters over the last 3 years. YES, some of the tests have been back tested, adjusted ... tested real time and fallen short. Two hiccups on yesterday...First, I hard number override if a team averages too many attempts. I need to look at this ... and see when to implement it. The reason I say this is for games like the BYU. The system obviously projected 50 points vs. 57 and since it is outside my normal 5 point sensitivity window... You should have bet it and won. They scored 45 points. Since BYU has averaged over 90 attempts per game... This system doesn't allow me to bet the under. I installed this to account for hurry up offenses. I will be interested to see how many attempts they averaged last night. I have the overrides installed for a reason... but I noticed they cost me several games last week. I hope everyone just looked at the projected points and went from there. My goal is simple to hit 60%, so you take a major risk betting parlays. My second hiccup yesterday is that I think the line on Nevada dropped to 57 which would have generated a bet for the over. These were the initial lines... so prior to placing the bet you really need to look at the final line. If the projected points are within a 5 point +/- or a 10 point window, you should not be betting the game. I compare myself to Vegas on how many times I am close to the line and how many times they are. What do I consider close? One TD--7 points. So far in the first 5 games this weekend... My record within a TD 3-2... Vegas is 2-3...I will continue to look at the hiccups and address them. A little ticked off at myself that if the Nevada game line did move to 57 and I nixed the hard override. I should have bet both games and won them both. Such is life... I guess if the system works that is really a speed bump if that... Enjoy Dave...First betable week was 57.1% ... I am shooting overall for between 60-64%... A very lofty goal...The Soviets won the gold in hockey 64,68,72,76..."That's why I want to pursue it"...small paraphrased quote from Miracle.

usma1992 · 10-05-13, 03:21 AM

Regarding, this game. The system will not let me bet this as an over... because Miami(OH) has averaged less than 54 attempts per game. I have two safety rides to one on the low side and one on the high side. Since Miami(OH) averages less than 54 attempts it won't let me bet the over. If a team averages over 84 attempts, I am not allowed to bet the under. On the BYU game, I was not allowed to bet it last night because they average 90 attempts. Turns out they had 82 attempts. My guess is that last nights BYU game is an anomaly. Utah State hit 86 attempts. My guess is that I was right in not betting it. I think both teams had over 400 yards in total offense. I would also guess and I do not know this for a fact that most of the time when this occurs. 60+ points occur. So far my overrides haven't worked. Meaning, I should have just bet the games. But this allows me to look into a couple of things. I think I would have won an additional 3 more games had I just bet on projected points. Anyway, tweaks will occur. My model will always be a work in progress. Thanks again Dave. P.S. I really like the results so far. My projected points are closer than Vegas. Enjoy Dave

tinhphai · 10-05-13, 07:25 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

Regarding, this game. The system will not let me bet this as an over... because Miami(OH) has averaged less than 54 attempts per game. I have two safety rides to one on the low side and one on the high side. Since Miami(OH) averages less than 54 attempts it won't let me bet the over. If a team averages over 84 attempts, I am not allowed to bet the under. On the BYU game, I was not allowed to bet it last night because they average 90 attempts. Turns out they had 82 attempts. My guess is that last nights BYU game is an anomaly. Utah State hit 86 attempts. My guess is that I was right in not betting it. I think both teams had over 400 yards in total offense. I would also guess and I do not know this for a fact that most of the time when this occurs. 60+ points occur. So far my overrides haven't worked. Meaning, I should have just bet the games. But this allows me to look into a couple of things. I think I would have won an additional 3 more games had I just bet on projected points. Anyway, tweaks will occur. My model will always be a work in progress. Thanks again Dave. P.S. I really like the results so far. My projected points are closer than Vegas. Enjoy Dave

Thank you for the explaination

etothep · 10-05-13, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

12:00 AM

GeorgiaTech

v

Miami

30.0

8.0

8 points for the Canes seems a touch on the low side

usma1992 · 10-05-13, 09:19 AM

Only use those projections as a reference... I never bet the spread...

I look to where points are generated from as a whole. My guess is the lack of points for Miami is based on how often Ga Tech runs the ball. Someone asked me to post the split. I don't use the split at all. Anyway, enjoy the day. Use only projected points. Thank You Dave

Heading to son's baseball game. Out...

gojetsgomoxies · 10-05-13, 01:39 PM

i've done very well with selective use of USMA's picks.. and i've tallied all the picks a couple of times. nicely over 50% both times and that's on alot of games.

DoYouNotGetIT · 10-05-13, 03:29 PM

I know my over/unders. I cannot pick NFL games for crap, but college or NFL over/unders I am great at. My college spread picks this week bombed. I am pretty good at college spread betting. NFL I am probably around or less than 50%.

usma1992 · 10-06-13, 06:08 AM

Got Destroyed yesterday... I don't even want to know the results...

tinhphai · 10-10-13, 11:05 AM

Any thing for this week ? Thanks