Possible RLM/NLM Advisory

[Night-Tripper]

This is nothing more than an early heads up as to games/totals that (as of this moment) are showing indications of RLM/NLM. As is always the case, it's a good idea to keep an eye on the lines of the games you're considering. I'm not suggesting that anyone fade the public or side with the public... simply presenting games that have more than 70% action on one side, with the side/total either not moving or going in the wrong direction.

Sides:

• Maryland/Connecticut
• WKU/South Alabama
• Notre Dame/Purdue

Totals:

• Fresno State/Colorado U 67.5
• Tennessee/Oregon U 72
• WMU/Northwestern U 58.5
• Wisconsin/ASU U 54.5

Red font indicates the direction of RLM/NLM

[Night-Tripper]

There was one game that involved RLM on a total Thursday night. Although 82% of the action was on the TCU/Texas Tech over, the total had steadily dropped from 63 -> 59.5 @ 5Dimes and most other books during the course of the day..

[stefan084]

oregon/tenn started at 70 didn't it? thanks for the info btw

[Night-Tripper]

oregon/tenn started at 70 didn't it? thanks for the info btw

You're welcome... and no, BetOnline opened with a total of 73. Depending on what book you use, it could have opened with a number anywhere between 69.5 and 73. There was a book that opened at 74, but since I can't identify it, I'm not going to use that total.

[Bet10Heinekens]

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[Night-Tripper]

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[Night-Tripper]

Friday night spread status update:

• EMU/Rutgers
• Maryland/Connecticut
• WKU/South Alabama
• Notre Dame/Purdue

Friday night totals update:

• Iowa/Iowa State O48.5
• Kent State/LSU U54
• WMU/Northwestern U58.5

[MrCondor]

ECU and Va Tech total opened at 50-51 and is now 47.5 with less than 40% on the under

[JR007]

the tricky thing about totals, more-so than sides for that matter, is where does the value evaporate,(anything over two points) have to be careful betting these, a four point drop like the VA Tech game....is significant, you can get your "ass burned" tailing these, ......I know, have learned the hard way over the years, just be careful, always ask yourself the question why ??? in those situations, pass or fade the move....just my opinion....the consensus websites, do not give you the information needed, you get the number of bet's made, you do not get the "amount made per bet".....

[Night-Tripper]

ECU and Va Tech total opened at 50-51 and is now 47.5 with less than 40% on the under

True, but I require at least 70% to be on one side.

[trendon]

the tricky thing about totals, more-so than sides for that matter, is where does the value evaporate,(anything over two points) have to be careful betting these, a four point drop like the VA Tech game....is significant, you can get your "ass burned" tailing these, ......I know, have learned the hard way over the years, just be careful, always ask yourself the question why ??? in those situations, pass or fade the move....just my opinion....the consensus websites, do not give you the information needed, you get the number of bet's made, you do not get the "amount made per bet".....

Yeah, that's why you have to combine it with some good ol' common sense. For instance, if it is Northwestern v. Nebraska (two teams not known for playing much D as of late while having borderline unstoppable offenses) on a beautiful day and the total suddenly drops 1.5 points, you might say, "Why did this happen even though I damn well know the 'public' will be on the over?"

[R.P. McMurphy]

Nice thread Tripper I will keep an eye on this.

[El Nino]

Solid stuff, Tripper.

[Bet10Heinekens]

Vols/Ducks down to 70

RLM

[Bet10Heinekens]

The reverse line movement in the Maryland/UConn game looks too obvious, this could be a mindfucked for the wanna-be sharps with a Maryland blowout

[Eddy Munny]

I bet Maryland when they opened at -7 thinking that this was the best number I was gonna get on this game. Low and behold it drops to -4 1/2. This is a case of serious RLM. I'm not gonna budge though. If it loses, hats off to the "sharps," but I can't see UConn hanging around in this game. I stuck with Georgia Tech today despite RLM sounding some alarms and it appears it's gonna pay off. I do pay attention to "fishy" line movements, but I never let them steer me away from teams I feel really confident in. If I'm on the fence however, RLM can influence my decision.

[Night-Tripper]

Friday night spread status update:

• EMU/Rutgers
• Maryland/Connecticut
• WKU/South Alabama
• Notre Dame/Purdue

Friday night totals update:

• Iowa/Iowa State O48.5
• Kent State/LSU U54
• WMU/Northwestern U58.5

Notre Dame no longer qualifies as a RLM play/Betting percentages have dropped to unacceptable levels. However, everything else has maintained the status quo.

[Night-Tripper]

I bet Maryland when they opened at -7 thinking that this was the best number I was gonna get on this game. Low and behold it drops to -4 1/2. This is a case of serious RLM. I'm not gonna budge though. If it loses, hats off to the "sharps," but I can't see UConn hanging around in this game. I stuck with Georgia Tech today despite RLM sounding some alarms and it appears it's gonna pay off. I do pay attention to "fishy" line movements, but I never let them steer me away from teams I feel really confident in. If I'm on the fence however, RLM can influence my decision.

Georgia Tech never entered the picture... betting percentages were nowhere near what is required.

[Night-Tripper]

Solid stuff, Tripper.

Thanks dude... I definitely respect your handicapping abilities.

[gojetsgomoxies]

thanks for the info............... does RLM best the red team? i'm thinking yes. not sure though

[Eddy Munny]

Georgia Tech never entered the picture... betting percentages were nowhere near what is required.

I'm pretty sure over 70% of the bets were on Georgia Tech.....at least where I checked. I think it was actually somewhere in the high 80's percentagewise and yet the line came down a half a point, indicating RLM.

[Night-Tripper]

I'm pretty sure over 70% of the bets were on Georgia Tech.....at least where I checked. I think it was actually somewhere in the high 80's percentagewise and yet the line came down a half a point, indicating RLM.

You're right... it was 72%, but Georgia Tech opened at 7.5 and never even got back to the opener, much less drop below it. That's not RLM. I knew there was a reason it didn't qualify.. had to go back and check my openers to see what was what.

[Eddy Munny]

You're right... it was 72%, but Georgia Tech opened at 7.5 and never even got back to the opener, much less drop below it. That's not RLM. I knew there was a reason it didn't qualify.. had to go back and check my openers to see what was what.

That's fine, I'll defer to you on the subject. You probably follow it closer than me. I just know I booked it at 8.5 Monday morning and it dropped to 8 at Bookmaker.

[Night-Tripper]

That's fine, I'll defer to you on the subject. You probably follow it closer than me. I just know I booked it at 8.5 Monday morning and it dropped to 8 at Bookmaker.

It's all good. When I checked last Sunday at 1400 CDT, both BookMaker and 5Dimes both had GT at -7.5... but by the time I could put a bet down, it had climbed to 8... but I took it anyway, because that was within my projected window. At the moment, I am in the process of putting together my spreadsheet for next week... and I'll probably be up most of the night narrowing down the slate of games.. Starting tomorrow ~ 1400 -> 1430, I'll start refreshing my browsers so that I can jump on anything that looks good. (That's how I managed to grab Rice -4.) If you wait until Monday, you may miss the boat on a game you had in your sights.