New to SBR- Hope to provide value with unique computer system

[CCon8181]

First time post to SBR. Hope to provide some value with unique computer system. Used it last year with much success in football and basketball. Hope to document my picks here at SBR and crack the book. My picks are arrived at with a computer program developed with a college friend who is a computer programmer with Qualcomm. It does not involve statistics, it calculates the teams that will cost Vegas the most money if they cover. And we bet against them (betting the side of Vegas). Some of the data required to input is obscure and I pay for this information. The numbers are $ wagered including teasers and parlays from 3 sources and % bet (free info) from 4 sources. Formulated to provide a number value next to the teams inputted. Plays with a 8 or better we play.



What you can expect: Over the course of football season I expect to provide 40-55 computer plays= goal 63% winners. I expect to have 6-12 Best Bets =70% winners I will also provide leans this year, and have not data to provide for those games.

Best Bets 100*: Games where everything lines up exactly and the computer point value for the team is >9.5
Computer Plays 10*: Games that meet the system requirements and point value is _>8
Leans 1*: Games that look like the money is on the dog but not confirmed by my system. In these games we will turn around and bet the favorite bc the computer does not show that Vegas is at high risk... and Vegas cant win every time.

With that said, its a long season and I'm going all in this year. Lets bash the shit outta the books!! Crack em!

Pitt +11 (ceasers)

[Dfjay9]

So you bet from 100u to 1u? If that's the case, sounds like a winner pal.

[Renegades]

So what rating is pitt?

[AdamL2424]

Sounds interesting ill be watching. BOL

[chilidog]

Sounds like a good idea. I have a really good idea where you get most of your data from, but what sites give you money wagered? I thought that I've searched high and low for this info, since I've had this same idea for quite awhile now.

[JR007]

money wagered very tough to find, sports insight's tried to get that info from the books and they wouldn't budge

[chilidog]

money wagered very tough to find, sports insight's tried to get that info from the books and they wouldn't budge

Yeah, I know, I tried pretty hard to find a service that would sell this info, but I came up with nothing. So if OP found a service that sells that info, I'd love to get my hands on that knowledge. I have no problem with paying for such a service.

[CCon8181]

Def on the wrong side with with Pitt!! It was a 10* computer play. Tough start. I get the $ wagered from a few sources, 1 being a local bookie. But the most heavily weighted number is forwarded to me from the sportsbook manager at a smaller book in vegas. Uncles friend. It isn't continuous data so I have to forecast it out in order to have consistent numbers to input.

[SamDiamond]

Wait a minute.

Your range of bets is 1x-100x?

So, it's a computer model?

Do you realize just one "100x" loss pretty much makes playing 1x bets a futile effort?

And 2 such losses? Forget it, its chase time.

Good luck though.

[letsgo]

LOL, you say you bet 1 unit to 100, then you make a pick and don't say for how much, and people tail it? Wow.

[agendaman]

sam diamond said it all 100u is like a lock rite cmon guy now that 63% will do just fine make sure you got spreadsheets ok gl now

[CCon8181]

The 1 units are just leans. They are not games produced by the system. Since my system puts out heavy money backed teams, the leans are the teams that might look like they have a lot of money on them but don't. In these cases we bet that team. There is no history for me to track these plays so Im just giving them as leans. There should be 40-55 10* plays and 6-12 100* plays... and yea if the 100* don't come through then it will be ugly but that's how im betting. Thanks for the welcome and hope to get on track week 2.

[AdamL2424]

Good stuff

[Eddy Munny]

I don't need a robot to tell me how to lose money.

[SamDiamond]

The 1 units are just leans. They are not games produced by the system. Since my system puts out heavy money backed teams, the leans are the teams that might look like they have a lot of money on them but don't. In these cases we bet that team. There is no history for me to track these plays so Im just giving them as leans. There should be 40-55 10* plays and 6-12 100* plays... and yea if the 100* don't come through then it will be ugly but that's how im betting. Thanks for the welcome and hope to get on track week 2.

Take a deep breath and read "analyze" what you are doing.

Suppose, and I know this is tough for you to grasp-- but say for a second, variance kicks in you in the nuts over a small sample size (6-12 bets), and you end up going 5-7.

A very real possibility over 12 picks.

That puts you at -270 *. (Vig)

In order for you to get that back---and earn the smallest of profits--- 7.7x-----you would need to go 42-13 over those 55 (10 star picks)---or hit 78%.

Let me clue you in.

If you can identify and hit 78% of your picks, get the fuk off this board, and RUN-- don't fly-- RUN TO VEGAS and enter the Hilton Contest--- and then sit back and wait for your cash.

[CCon8181]

Take a deep breath and read "analyze" what you are doing.

Suppose, and I know this is tough for you to grasp-- but say for a second, variance kicks in you in the nuts over a small sample size (6-12 bets), and you end up going 5-7.

A very real possibility over 12 picks.

That puts you at -270 *. (Vig)

In order for you to get that back---and earn the smallest of profits--- 7.7x-----you would need to go 42-13 over those 55 (10 star picks)---or hit 78%.

Let me clue you in.

If you can identify and hit 78% of your picks, get the fuk off this board, and RUN-- don't fly-- RUN TO VEGAS and enter the Hilton Contest--- and then sit back and wait for your cash.

I get your point Sam, and while I might be a rookie on this site. This is not my first go around. Obviously if I lose my best bets im in the tank and don't figure to make that up. I'm just giving the forum an outline for how I make my picks. If I crash and burn, you'll have front row seats but history says I make some damn good money. As long as I don't get cut off or handicapped by reduced bet amounts like I did last year.

[BigdaddyQH]

Def on the wrong side with with Pitt!! It was a 10* computer play. Tough start. I get the $ wagered from a few sources, 1 being a local bookie. But the most heavily weighted number is forwarded to me from the sportsbook manager at a smaller book in vegas. Uncles friend. It isn't continuous data so I have to forecast it out in order to have consistent numbers to input.

And you believe and trust in this information? Really? knowing that a huge amount of money goes down just before the game starts and you would have no way of getting that info in time? Does your "Uncles friend" like his job, much less breathing? Because if ever gets caught giving out info like you claim he does, he is a dead man.

[SBR_John]

Keep on, who knows where it leads. Good luck.

[CCon8181]

10* computer play SDSU +28 1* leans Utah st -8, UVA +24.5 Looking at 2 other games

[CCon8181]

10* Computer Play Jets +3.5 1* Bears -3, Seattle -3

[SamDiamond]

So, the computer 10* college pick missed?

Okay, I am not trying to be a dick, just trying to have the debate.

If you played even units---, you would be 1-2, down 1.2 units.

Instead, you are 1-2, down 11.1 units?

I just don't see how this is a good model. I hope you crush it. I really do. I just don't get it.

Yesterday you would have went