80.5 % College Football Thread......LOL

**vegasreaper** · 12-07-13, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by Vols98

I am just wondering how have you done in the past on your bowl picks? This is my first year following

excellent vols98 as people will attest too

**vegasreaper** · 12-07-13, 11:00 PM

Boy san Diego weather the same as Vegas cold and rainy just like I love

**Vols98** · 12-07-13, 11:34 PM

I just got into betting and I am only 19. I know this a stupid question but does anyone have any clue how Vegas comes up with the lines. It just amazes me how accurate they are.

**tr4sh** · 12-07-13, 11:47 PM

While it is pretty spooky, in many cases, making lines isn't hard. One good practice is you try to make the line before you see them and within a few months, you'll get a good sense of it, especially in games where scoring is done in increments like football. Just some basic, 3 points is given to the home team so if 2 teams are even home team should be -3. And then you go on from there while looking at key numbers 3,7,10/11,14 etc.

However in games where scoring is more much fluid like basketball, bookmakers are consistently off

**vegasreaper** · 12-08-13, 12:02 AM

Wow 1-3 is pathetic now we sit at 128-85-1 see you for the bowls

**Ferndog68** · 12-08-13, 01:16 AM

bowls should be clearer. thanx reaper

**Vols98** · 12-08-13, 01:20 AM

Please tell me that you are going to be around next year as well reaper you have been too good this season. I wish I would have discovered you early on. I am looking forward to your bowl picks and college basketball picks

**Noleafclover** · 12-08-13, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by tr4sh

While it is pretty spooky, in many cases, making lines isn't hard. One good practice is you try to make the line before you see them and within a few months, you'll get a good sense of it, especially in games where scoring is done in increments like football. Just some basic, 3 points is given to the home team so if 2 teams are even home team should be -3. And then you go on from there while looking at key numbers 3,7,10/11,14 etc.

True. Cept 6/4 more key than 11. Another thing, if you're just getting into sports betting, you probably want to just do your own picks on paper for a year or 2 to get better at it, and tail people like VR if you're going to lay down. Suggested amounts are between .5 and 3% of bankroll per bet, depending on who you talk to. Fixed Odds Sports Betting is a very good read, or I should say skim (the graphs and monte carlo sims are most informative), for bankroll management, which is the foundation of good sports betting.

**TiredPro** · 12-09-13, 08:47 PM

Reaper, I personally believe motivation may be the single biggest factor in bowl handicapping. Are you able to account for that in your simulations of bowl games ?

**vegasreaper** · 12-09-13, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by TiredPro

Reaper, I personally believe motivation may be the single biggest factor in bowl handicapping. Are you able to account for that in your simulations of bowl games ?

I actually handicap for the bowl season totally different than the regular year because you are absolutely right. Some teams can care less that they are where they are and other teams have alot to prove etc. So I do still run sims to get an idea of the flow but i put ALOT of weight on the motivation factors

**TiredPro** · 12-09-13, 09:18 PM

May not be a short answer to this question, but is a teams motivation level something that you judge or are you relying on media, web sites, etc. I try and assign my own level of motivation, but after every bowl season, I wish I could judge this one big factor better. Any input much appreciated.

**reigle9** · 12-09-13, 09:49 PM

Don't remember the spread, but USC had no interest in their bowl last year.

**Urbanwildlife** · 12-09-13, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by vegasreaper

I actually handicap for the bowl season totally different than the regular year because you are absolutely right. Some teams can care less that they are where they are and other teams have alot to prove etc. So I do still run sims to get an idea of the flow but i put ALOT of weight on the motivation factors

You and the Vegasreaper are absolutely correct! Good luck to the both of you, and hope to see you at the pay window many times during these bowl games!

Also, have a safe and fun holiday season!

**TiredPro** · 12-09-13, 10:08 PM

Can't see tremendous motivation out of Oregon or Texas.

**Urbanwildlife** · 12-10-13, 12:39 AM

It is just Oregon is so much more talented than Texas especially at key positions. I actually really like Oregon in this game, and expect Mariotta to have a great game.

**vegasreaper** · 12-10-13, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by Urbanwildlife

It is just Oregon is so much more talented than Texas especially at key positions. I actually really like Oregon in this game, and expect Mariotta to have a great game.

Watch for suspensions for snow fight

**Ferndog68** · 12-12-13, 08:00 PM

How the picks looking reaper. Hope u get some by the next week going on the 20th

**vegasreaper** · 12-12-13, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by Ferndog68

How the picks looking reaper. Hope u get some by the next week going on the 20th

Definitely will have em Ferndog

**Ferndog68** · 12-13-13, 10:18 AM

**vegasreaper** · 12-13-13, 02:02 PM

Going to go with the midshipman my numbers have them winning by 22 so it's a play

NAVY-12

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

**JayMoney24_7** · 12-14-13, 10:05 AM

VegasReaper thanks for the play. Paid the juice and bought Navy -11 just in case. BOL to everyone!

**reigle9** · 12-14-13, 01:03 PM

Not on this one vr, but thanks for the effort.

**Ferndog68** · 12-14-13, 06:35 PM

Reaper back at it again!!!! Cheers bro

**vegasreaper** · 12-14-13, 07:03 PM

Well thanks to the Navy easy winner we finish the season at 129-85-1 and a solid 35.5 units profit.

**Ba Chewy Chomp** · 12-14-13, 07:15 PM

Great work VR!

**Urbanwildlife** · 12-14-13, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by vegasreaper

Well thanks to the Navy easy winner we finish the season at 129-85-1 and a solid 35.5 units profit.

Big GIGANTIC props for a job well done my friend!
Also Merry Christmas to ya, and have a great 2014 that is filled with good health, fun times, and continued success!

**DALLASROB** · 12-14-13, 10:41 PM

**knugen** · 12-15-13, 02:54 AM

Thx reaper.. But, i thought you wire going to have plays for next week also. Arent your?

**reigle9** · 12-15-13, 11:03 AM

I like to think I'm pretty cool and then urban posts with joy and happiness.

**Urbanwildlife** · 12-15-13, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by reigle9

I like to think I'm pretty cool and then urban posts with joy and happiness.

Too funny my friend!

Also Merry Christmas to you, and have a great 2014 that is filled with good health, fun times, blessings, and hopefully 2014 will allow your dreams and goals to become reality!

**TiredPro** · 12-15-13, 05:52 PM

All I want for Christmas Urban are some more pictures of those ass-sis-tants..........and a few bowl game winners.

**Urbanwildlife** · 12-15-13, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by TiredPro

All I want for Christmas Urban are some more pictures of those ass-sis-tants..........and a few bowl game winners.

Good one, and I posted my plays on my thread, and for you I will post a couple of pics from Friday night also on that thread, as I do not want to post them here out of respect for the vegasreaper.

**Deuce1617** · 12-15-13, 09:10 PM

Reaper when can we expect your bowl picks?

**brownsfan** · 12-15-13, 10:48 PM

Great season VR!! Merry Christmas to all!

**vegasreaper** · 12-16-13, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by Deuce1617

Reaper when can we expect your bowl picks?

Any day Deuce gathering data