I'm interested in seeing what people think will be the best underdog ATS during week 1 and why. I'm relatively square at this point, but have learned a lot during the offseason. Got my ass kicked by betting too much chalk last year. I'm hoping to do better this year. Would love to hear some good ideas on either side of the lines.
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Personally, I'm liking Syracuse +6 at home v Penn State and maybe TCU +6.5 v LSU. Would love to see both go to +7. Would love some feedback on either or both of these leans.Comment -
My take is Syracuse will give Penn State all they can handle. But just don't think TCU can hang with LSU. Other than Saban in the SEC, Miles probably brings in the best athletes year in and year out in the conference. The Tigers are loaded again this year and should handle a good TCU team. My opinion for what its worth.Comment -
Syracuse certainly looks like the best of the two to me also. Thanks WorkhorseComment -
Actually ala, I would steer clear of Syr/PSU but would put $3 dollars on LSU in a minute. The Tigers are going to be a tough team this year. Can't see any reason they won't..........do you?Comment -
They are ALWAYS tough, no question. Nevertheless, LSU tends to be a bit lackluster offensively. What also concerns me is that they lost numerous defensive players to the draft. I know how well they reload, so it may not be a problem. I also have to assume that TCU will be much better this year with key players returning, including their QB. I may just pass on this one.Comment -
I think that Syracuse is a pretty good pick.
Penn State may be starting a true freshman at QB.Comment -
What about UTSA, they return some good starters and they were pretty good on the road last year. Dont know why they are +6 against new mexico on the road. Would love some insight also.Comment -
Western Michigan +26 is juicy, msu is far superior but their breaking in new rb and their pass offense was brutal ly...if wmu can score 10 I think they will be within the #...wku is live dog tooComment -
Like both picks...I already put a unit on WKU at +4Comment -
I am looking at two possibilities here. Temple +25 at Notre Dame. I have no idea who will run the Notre Dame offense. Their defense will be good, but not as good as last season. Temple returns 8 starters on their offense including their QB. While they obviously do not have the talent to pull off the upset, 25 points should be enough to give them a cover.
I also like Western Kentucky +3.5 against Kentucky. UK is by far, the worst team in the SEC and will have to have a major upset to win one SEC game. Western returns 7 on both offense and defense. Both teams have new HC's, KY gets Mark Stoops, and WKY gets Bobby Patrino. I will take Patrino at home in game 1 plus the points.Comment -
Seeing the WKU line moving to +4.5. Any chance this climbs to 6 or 7 prior to game? Probably not, huh?Comment -
@bigdaddy I think your assessment of ND is off. They still have a top 3 defense in cfb, have the best dline, only lose teo in linebackers, and only motta from secondary. Defense actually only lost total of 4 players from starters/backups, least in nation.
Their offense may take step back when they play good teams but Temple is one of the worst teams in cfb this year. Notre dame should cruise.Comment -
Notre Dame was very lucky not to have lost three games last season. They were demolished by a very good team in the NC game. This year, their offense is worse than last sason. Their schedule is tougher, with games at Michigan and Stanford, and home games against Michigan State, Oklahoma, USC and BYU, plus a neutral site game against Arizona State. The Temple game is before the Michigan game, and Notre Dame will be looking ahead, especially with all the bad blood between Hoke and Kelly. Notre Dame loses at least 3 games this season, and will not have a real good ATS season.Comment -
Agreed, I think its obvious nd will take step back and could have lost those games ly. But temple is garbage this year, after losing his home opener to s.Florida his first year I highly doubt they are overlooking this game, its first game of year and maybe only game of year that they really get to throttle an opponent. Starting Defense will not give up td to temple. Rees may play whole game just to get more experience and work out kinks. Brian Kelly loves to run up score when he can.Comment -
hard to say..... i'd definitely lean towards taking the points.....
new QB at ND. cierre wood, very productive TV, quietly applied for NFL draft (and wasn't drafted)
temple has had some excellent ATS teams the last decade. just not last year. but if memory serves me correctly tons of starters back this year. i think another new HC again... some of this from memoryComment -
WKU ML, Tulsa PKComment -
Can anybody tell me what did the Cal/Northwestern line open at. its +8 cal now.Comment -
I think Rice is a solid play... they are bringing back a lot and i doubt johnny football plays a lot in this game.... and it could very well be a back door game as well...
I know Georgia has its trouble this offseason but I think they win outright by 7+ vs Clemson. Great offensive game but the UGA offense is STACKED. I know Clemson's is as well but I just don't know if the Tigers can stop the run... and if they do the pass with a weak secondary will open it up later in the game anyways
I am not sure but what is Northern Illinois like this year? They still have Lynch and Iowa is going the wrong way...Comment -
after looking more closely i think louisiana lafayette is a live dog at Arkansas...+12 and hopefully rising looks like a strong underdog play, their offense is loaded again & arkansas is breaking in new players and systems on both sides of ball...but they are SEC and Louisiana will not be sneaking up on those teams again this yearComment -
Guys, respectfully disagree.
I think ND is going to take apart Temple. Absolutely take them apart.
Rees isn't some freshman-- he is a senior QB-- HE IS 18-4 as a starter!
And, ND is LOADED at RB. They have USC transfer Carlisle, 5-star Greg Bryant, and that Atkinson kid.
Temple can't throw the football. At all. They had 4 games last year where they failed to throw for 75 yards. Temple was 107th in scoring offense.
And Temple's defense is worse. They had the 100th ranked rushing defense, The 86th ranked scoring defense. Temple gave up over 200 yards rushing to Villanova, Cincy, and Pitt. And get this. They gave up almost 4.8 yards per carry.
ND is going to take apart Temple.
What does Temple do well enough to suggest they can hang in this game?Comment -
@night---you are right, im in Vegas so still waiting on most of the books to post, im banking on public to drive line up in next monthComment -
I looked at this game a lot too. Temple just lacks the experience and talent to hang with ND and Brain Kelly. I could see the defense hold Temple's offense to single-digits. Reese isn't flashy but he will be steady in throwing nice short passes. ND will grind it out on the ground easily against an undermanned defensive-line. I could see this one ending 38-7 or 42-10Comment -
Ala--- that is where I am at.
I think this game ends up 35-7, 38-10, maybe 42-10, and that is only if Kelly calls off the dogs.
I am genuinely shocked some of the good college football guys here are leaning Temple, especially when you look at what Temple did last year.
If you take away their 2 games against Villanova and Army, Temple was held to 300 or less yards in 5 games, and they gave up more than 475 yards 6 times.
Temple has just 1 DL returning, 2 LBs, 2 CBs, and a safety. So, 6/11 of a really bad defense returns, and people think they will be improved? No one is going to accuse Temple of recruiting with the likes of the Alabama's/Ohio State's/USC's of the world, so how in god's name is Temple going to be improved?Comment -
As you already know, Notre Dame should and will blow them out, even playing there backups. Good call guys, and see ya at the pay window!
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Looking at ND -25 as my first play of the year (granted won't make the bet for a while). Thanks for the insight, esp Sam!
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