Pags' Plays 11/29

[pags11]

rossta4i,

thank you very much for recognizing my efforts...I'm glad to hear that you enjoyed my work this season...thank you very much for your support this season...I'll look forward to your threads next season, just keep putting your work in and be open to learning and you will continually get better with your handicapping...BOL this week...

[taurus]

pags- Bravo for you on another profitable season. I'm glad to have been on board.

I'm already looking ahead to 2009, and may alter my style of 1 unit on each and every game. Please refresh my memory, if you would. You start and end at .5 per play working your way up to and down from a mid-season maximum of 3 units per play. Correct ?
Thanks for reply and thenks for all your hard work.

[GODFATHER]

Hi Pags,

Can you please help me understand how you feel Oklahoma St. +7.5 has a chance, please I'm not challenging you by no means, just trying to learn good strategy.

[Rixsaw]

Good luck this week Pag. I'll be with ya all the way. This is my strategy for pre-bowl week: teams that already lock or accepted a bowl invite will loose or not cover because they want to rest for the bowl games. Strongly favor teams that have nothing to play for also do not covers because they rather study for finals than to practice hard. The seniors are very busy preparing for graduation and partying. For me these strategies have high return rate for the last 2 seasons. I hear ya about betting smaller unit. I need to learn money management.

If you do have some extra money laying around, now is a good time to look up some good value stock. Don't buy it this year though, wait until after January quarterly financial reports. See ya next year. May life brings you as much joy as CFB capping. Oh...and thanks mucho.

[theloser1234]

easy

plays to be posted later this evening...

this will be my last week posting plays as I play games very light in week 15 and during bowl season...I'll be playing three games at a half a unit each...if you choose to tail me please make sure to understand this is the time of the year where I recommend keeping your plays very light...thanks for your understanding...

osu is a joke of a bet.Bet ou on the moneyline,easy money

[Rixsaw]

Hi Pags,

Can you please help me understand how you feel Oklahoma St. +7.5 has a chance, please I'm not challenging you by no means, just trying to learn good strategy.

Perfect round robin:
Texas defeated OK, and OK St,
TT defeated Texas and OK St,
OK defeated TT,
and now OK St defeat OK ?? The press gonna have a field day come Sunday morning if this happen. Games wise, OK doesn't do so well on the road. Sorry Pag, didn't mean to take over. I'm just intrigue on how this thing is turning out.

[masr]

Good luck this week pags..
I like NC st and OK St...... GT scares me a lil w/ all thier injuries..what do you think? Also on Navy tonight any feedback?

Will thanks again for all your insight this year...Its been a good year of CFB wagering...Look forward to seeing you around!
Hope you have a great Holiday Season!!

[snutz69]

Pags,

Thanks for you hard work and sharing your insight with all of us this season, it's sad to see the season drawing to an end. On my parlay card this week NC State is a PK. Any thoughts on them covering the -2? From what I've seen this season I'm prolly gonna take it, just wanted to see your thoughts on it before I circle that number.

Thanks,

D.Snutz

[pags11]

taurus,

thank you very much ol' pal...I appreciate all of the support you have given me over the years...yes, I usually start week one at .5 unit per game and then slowly build up to three units, playing three unit games in the heart of the season and then scaling back a half unit per game as the close of the season approaches...there are many roads to success in college football handicapping and this is one that works for mer...we can talk more in the offseason and I can give you more details to how I do things...BOL to you this week and the rest of the season...

godfather,

if you wouldn't mind waiting until Thursday night I will post my write-up on the game and share with you my thoughts...BOL to you this week...

rixsaw,

thanks for your end of the season insight and also the stock market tip...GL to you this week...

theloser1234,

I'll assume you haven't been betting college football very long...the last time a guy came in my thread saying OSU wasn't going to cover he caused a very embarassing situation for himself after OSU ended up covering the game...remember, there's a reason they actually play the games...

masr,

no real opinion on Navy, although I am excited as a fan to see QB Dobbs get in a full game for Navy...I understand your concerns with Georgia Tech's injuries, but am still playing the game...GL to you as well this week...

[pags11]

snutz69,

thanks very much for your post and recognizing my efforts this year...yes, it is sad that the season is drawing to an end...I like NCSU's chances of winning this game so playing them at PK, vs. +1 or +1.5 is still worthy of consideration...GL this week...

[kevsworld]

Pags,

new to SBR, but been following your post most of the season.Enjoyed your write ups and thought out picks...going to miss your post for sure. GL this week,,,NC State and G tech are on my card!

[DangerousOne]

Pags,

Thanks for your knowledge all year. BOL to you this week. Look forward to next year sir.

[jackpot269]

Thanks once again for all that you put into this every year (last year and this the most)look forward to next year hope its as good as this one has been. GL and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Lock-ness monsta]

Pags,

Haven't chimed in that much but I have been following your picks and tailed you on quite a few. Just wanted to say thanks for sharing your wisdom. Good luck with all.

[Lock-ness monsta]

BTW,

Love the NC state pick. I was leaning toward OU - seems like easy money, but then when I saw you pick OSU I remembered how OU never seems to cover in this game and loses often when they are favored. I think I'll back off the OU bet and simply just watch it. Good luck to you.

[pags11]

kevsworld,

thank you very much for the kind words...glad we will be on some games together...GL to you this week...

dangerousone,

I appreciate very much you recognizing my efforts...BOL to you as well this week...

jackpot269,

thank you sir...I enjoy doing this and am glad you have enjoyed my work...GL this week and Happy Thanksgiving to you as well...

lock-ness monsta,

thanks for your thoughts on the games...GL to you as well this week...

[Boy Jeenyus]

I'm with you on Okie St. They've been paying off for you pretty regularly all season. I sure am hoping you cash them again Friday.

Enjoyed posting games with you this season. Good luck this bowl season.

[pags11]

boy jeenyus,

glad to hear we will be together on OSU...yes, they have performed well for us...thank you sir...GL to you this week...

[WestsidePete]

pags,

once again a great year...I noticed you changed your style this year and added more favs and stuck with teams that consistantly got you results. Okla St always plays Okla tough at home and are well rested for this game so really like the play. I have played all 3 of these teams with success this year. I'm using your plays in the following way:

NC State +1 for 1/2 unit
Okla St +8 buying 1 pt for 1/2 unit

3 team 10 pt teaser -120 1.5 units
NC State +11
Okla St +17
G Tech +17.5

I really like the tease and decided to play the two home teams...GL this weekend

[msubulldog]

pags,

good luck on plays this week; like all three of them. thanks, for sharing your thoughts and plays this season.

[UndisputedGblr]

Hi Pags,

Just wanted to say thank you very much for everything you've done with this forum. I've been on numerous forums before and I've never seen anyone contribute so much and answer everyone's questions.

Thank you very much for everything and I hope to see you next season.

[pags11]

westsidepete,

thank you very much...yes, I tried to change with the market, thanks for noticing...glad we will be on a few of these together...BOL to you this week...

msubulldog,

good to hear we will be on these plays together...thank you, I enjoy doing this...GL to you as well...

undisputedgblr,

thank you very much for your kind words, I appreciate it...I am just trying to do my part to share what I know, glad you here you've enjoyed my work...GL to you this week...

[pags11]

just sitting down to start with my write-ups, will post them in the next couple of hours...

[guru-t]

I'll be up awhile.Looking forward to those pags.

[Jimmydafreak]

Happy Thanksgiving Pags!!!

Been busy lately. My son is in town right now.

Good luck this weekened!!!

[sparticus]

Pags, I really enjoyed reading all your write ups this college foots season. I do not believe i missed reading one of your write ups a lot of hard work went into your capping, you know college foots as well as anyone. Thanks again Sparticus

[pags11]

N.C. State +1

Who would have thought a month ago Tom O'Brien would have his team a win a way from being bowl eligible the last week of the season? O'Brien and his team have continued to get better every week in all three phases of the game. As I have mentioned in earlier write-ups, N.C. State was a team hit hard by injuries earlier in the season, but as they have become healthy their performance has steadily improved. QB Russell Wilson (55.9% comp., 15 TD/ 1 INT) is playing extremely well, making excellent decisions with the football and displaying tremendous arm strength. Wilson is extremely mobile as well which makes him a handful to try and game plan for. RB's Andre Brown (4.2 ypc., 5 TD, 26 rec., 1 TD) and Jamelle Eugene (5.0 ypc., 2 TD, 24 rec.) are good running threats and also do a good job catching the ball out of the backfield. N.C. State's improved offensive performance has been helped by better offensive line play the second half of the season. WR Owen Spencer will have to do a better job catching the ball this week, as when he does he is able to really stretch opposing defenses. TE Anthony Hill (15 rec., 3 TD) has returned to his All-ACC form of a couple of years ago and puts pressure on opposing defenses in the red zone. TE George Bryan (18 rec., 4 TD), along with WR's Jarvis Williams (18 rec., 4 TD) and T.J. Graham (14 rec.) usually are matched up with nickel and dime backs, as opponents are worried about all of the other offensive playmakers, and this has allowed these three young players to make an impact. Defensively, Miami has athletes with strength and speed. I have respect for the job Randy Shannon has done recruiting, however many of his defensive players are still very young and his defense has been prone to blown coverages and giving up the big play. It may not be as easy for N.C. State to move the ball this week as it was the previous three weeks, but I still feel they have enough playmakers to put pressure on the Miami defensive unit. Defensively, N.C. State has been getting a lot better play from their front seven, with DE Willie Young and MLB Nate Irving doing a teriffic job putting pressure on opposing team's offenses. O'Brien has always done a good job scheming with his defenses and finally has a unit healthy enough to execute and get stops. Miami also has athletes on the offensive side of the ball, headlined by their talented two RB's Craig Cooper and Javarris James. WR's Adarius Johnson, Kayne Farguharson and Travis Benjamin are all very physical and have the speed to break a big play at any time. It's actually Miami back-up QB Jacory Harris that concerns me more than current starter Robert Marve, as Harris has proven to be the better decision maker. Fortunately, Shannon seems to stick with Marve as the starter each week. There's no doubt that N.C. State will have a battle on their hands this week, but N.C. State is a team that is believing in themselves and will have the home crowd behind them. I'll take N.C. State and the points in this one.


Georgia Tech +8

When Paul Johnson first got the head coaching position at Georgie Tech he mentioned the importance of beating in-state rival Georgia, as he was well aware that is one of the reasons the previous coach Chan Gailey had been fired. I anticipate that Georgia Tech will be as much, if not more, fired up for this game than Georgia will be. I say that because I haven't seen the same Georgia team in the last three weeks once they lost to Florida, as I did earlier in the year. Georgia is still a very talented and well-coached team, but I think Georgia Tech is an equally talented and even better coached squad. I read during the offseason how many doubted that Johnson would be able to implement the triple option attack that he used at Navy and Georgia Southern, into the ACC. While it hasn't been without bumps and bruises, Georgia Tech has had success this year on offense. Much of that success is due to the performance of "A" back Johhathon Dwyer (7.0 ypc, 10 TD). Dwyer recently broke the single seaon rushing record at Georgia Tech. I mentioned in one of my first write-ups of the year that I thought Dwyer was one of the best running backs in the country and I stand by my statement, as I fully expect him to play on Sundays one day. Dwyer was banged up a bit last week but all reports I read say he will be a go come Saturday. QB Josh Nesbitt (48.4% comp., 2 TD/ 3 INT, 4.3 ypc., 7 TD) has also battled some nagging injuries, but he is also expected to play and is an important part of the Georgia Tech offense. RB Roddy Jones (7.5 ypc., 2 TD) and FB Lucas Cox (8.5 ypc., 2 TD) are also key cogs to Georgia Tech's option attack, making difficult for opposing defenses to key on Dwyer and Nesbitt. Georgia has some athletes on defense, especially in their secondary. I haven't seen the same performance from this unit the second half of the season as I did earlier in the year and believe that Georgia Tech will have some success moving the football and sustaining drives. Defensively, Georgia Tech has one of the best front fours in the entire country. I've mentioned before that teams such as Georgia Tech who can put pressure on oppsoing quarterbacks with only having to rush players, can drop more players back into coverage. That will be important this week as Georgia QB Matthew Stafford is a guy who can beat you downfield. He has two excellent receiving threats in A.J. Green and Mohamed Massaquoi. Georgia also has one of the best running backs in the country in Knowshon Moreno. All of these offensive threats will be a difficult match-up for Georgia Tech's defense, but they should be up to the task this week. Going into Athens between the hedges is always a difficult proposition as well, but in a game that may mean as much if not more to Georgia Tech than the ACC championship, I'll take my chances with them and the points here.


Oklahoma St. +7.5

How, you say, am I taking OSU this week against an Oklahoma squad who just obliterated Texas Tech this week? Well, for one I like that this is a home game for Oklahoma St. vs. their biggest rival. This is also a series where Oklahoma St. has been very competitive, especially in Stillwater. I don't know how to explain it exactly, but OSU is a much different team at home. The renovations to T. Boone Pickens Stadium have created much more noise and energy on gameday and it appears to me that Oklahoma St. Head Coach Mike Gundy is much more liberal with his offensive playcalling when playing at home. I also believe that Oklahoma is a much different team on the road, especially defensively as they have yielded many more points per game on average than they do while playing at home. Oklahoma is a very good football team, no doubt, but I just feel that we are going to get a great effort from OSU this week in a game that could be close down to the wire and I'm getting over a touchdown. Remember, also, that this is the time of year when strange things tend to happen. OSU RB Kendall Hunter (6.8 ypc., 14 TD) is now rested and fully healthy for this game. He was recently named a finalist for the Doak Walker Award, as he has proven he is one of the better running backs in the country. RB's Keith Toston (6.9 ypc., 9 TD) and Beau Johnson (6.2 ypc., 3 TD) add tremendous depth to the OSU backfield. WR Dez Bryant (68 rec., 16 TD) has caught fifteen of his sixteen TD's in home games and is also a big threat in the return game. Bryant will help stretch the defense and take some pressure off the OSU running game. Speaking of special teams, I see OSU having an edge here as Oklahoma really struggles in their coverage units. TE Brandon Pettigrew (35 rec.) has made a significant impact since getting healthy had does a great job picking up key first downs. Oklahoma has talent everywhere on defense, but are without a couple of key defensive starters. They have given up an average of over 23 points per game on defense on the road, and haven't yet faced an offense of OSU's caliber while playing away from Norman. If OSU can have some sustained drives, that should limit the time Oklahoma's potent offense will be on the field. Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford is having an unbelievable year and plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. RB's DeMarco Murry and Chris Brown make up one of the better running back tandems in the country as well. WR Juaqin Iglesias, TE Germain Grisham and freshman WR Ryan Broyles are all excellent players. Fortunatley for OSU, WR Manual Johnson has been battling injuries the last month and a half, but Johnson could still play a role come Saturday. Their is no doubt that Oklahoma will get their fair share of points, I just believe that OSU is up to the task of matching scores with them and in this rivalry knowns as "Bedlam". All it takes is a turnover or two combined with a crazy home crowd and it can lead to a much different ending than many would anticipate. I'll take OSU and the points here.

[pags11]

guru-t,

hope you enjoy them bud...BOL to you this week...

jimmydafreak,

good to hear from you my friend...hope that you and your son are enjoying the holiday...GL this week...

sparticus,

that means a lot coming from you as you have been around for many years...I truly enjoy doing this and am glad that people such as yourself appreciate my work...thank you again...BOL to you this week...

[Cougar Bait]

Looks good. You're in for a good week I have a feeling.

[nick2060]

pags you got any opinion on pittsburgh/WVU?

[pags11]

cougar bait,

hoping you are right...thanks...GL this week...

nick2060,

game is a no play in my opinion...not interested in laying the 3.5 on the road with WVU, but not in a hurry to go against Pat White and Noel Devine with the stache...

[taurus]

pags- it would be nice to wrap up the season going 3-0
GL

we can talk more in the offseason and I can give you more details to how I do things...

sounds very good to me. Give me your thoughts on where and when. This site or maybe "The Empire" which has the least traffic ?

[clowncar]

gl pags .....

Been fun , looking forward to bowl talks.

[pags11]

taurus,

yes, that would be nice...let's talk for sure at CTG or the Empire as both have private messaging features I believe...we could always start a thread at the empire...GL this week...

clowncar,

yes it has been fun...GL to you as well this week...

[taurus]

Okay.
I'll take the initiatve and do a PM early next month.
t