Oregon @ Arizona St writeup

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • areallygoodnoob
    SBR Rookie
    • 09-06-12
    • 24

    #1
    Oregon @ Arizona St writeup
    I keep hearing ASU backers talk about how underrated their D is. Lots of true sharps loving to take the points based on ASU's D. If you only consider FBS vs FBS games (no point muddling stats w FCS blowouts), they rank 11th in the country in scoring defense giving up 15.8 PPG, and 8th in total defense (right there w the big boys). However, if you dig a little deeper here's what you find...

    The scoring offense rankings of the teams they've played are 73, 100, 104, 111, and 121 out of 124. Their opponents combined average PPG is 18.8. Giving up 15.8 to teams that average 18.8 is good, but not spectacular. If they give up 3 pts less than Oregon's average, Oregon will score 47.

    The total offense ranking of the teams they've played are even worse. 56, 105, 107, 113, 116. There's only 124 FBS teams, and ASU has faced 5 of the bottom 20. And, 3 of those 5 have had a backup QB start due to injuries.

    Oregon's D is giving up 21.2 to teams that average 26.26. Plus, Oregon has given up just under half of those in garbage time with 3+ touchdown leads and sub's in. The garbage points/yards makes Oregon's D a bit underrated if you just look at their total stats.

    There are several solid reasons to like ASU in this game. Home crowd, thursday night, Oregon's first true road game w a Freshman QB. (we saw how that worked for Stanford...) Plus, the line has moved from -10 to -8 with 80% on Oregon. Obviously some people of influence are on ASU.

    Both teams will be facing their stiffest competition so far this year. Arizona state hasn't faced a Defense or Offense anywhere close to as good as Oregon's, but the same is true for Oregon.

    I know it's easy to want to be the guy that picked the big upset, and prove everybody wrong, but I'd rather be on the winning side. I see Oregon's offense winning by 10 alone, plus a D/ST Touchdown for an easy cover.

    OREGON -8 It's the public pick, but it's the smart pick.


    Whether or not you agree with the pick, hope you were able to take something away from that. BOL everyone
  • Urbanwildlife
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-06-11
    • 5958

    #2
    Great write up and you have no idea how I hope you are correct, but as I just posted on another thread about this game, I watch the SBR video analyzing this game, and it totally mind fcuked me, as I was possibly the biggest Oregon backer on this forum in this particular game, and have wagered quite a large sum on it, and in fact it is my biggest play of the year.
    Good luck to you and us!

    Comment
    • areallygoodnoob
      SBR Rookie
      • 09-06-12
      • 24

      #3
      The guys over on pregame.com video were the same way. They couldn't stop talking about ASU's D. They might be good, but they haven't done anything extraordinary to prove it yet.
      Comment
      • Urbanwildlife
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-06-11
        • 5958

        #4
        I agree with you there! It is the fact that this is the first real away game for Oregon in a sold out national televised game on a Thursday night where the crowd is going to be as psyched up as the players that worries me. The other thing that scares the hell out of me is where they stated in that SBR video that the home team during these week day games has a over all record of 58-41 since ESPN started tracking this statistic 7 years ago. It is very hard to go against a percentage like this.

        With all this being said....... GO OREGON DUCKS!
        Comment
        • xcrazyaenoyx
          SBR Rookie
          • 09-12-12
          • 47

          #5
          yea yea yea... so u telling me vegas wanna give free money on people about 86% who betting oregon when line drop to -8? that should be easy lolz... good luck !
          Comment
          • easysaid
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 05-18-12
            • 690

            #6
            This has to be the best 2 teams in the pac 12 going at it, i just think with the stats about tv games and line dropping with heavy oregon money arizona look the pick.
            Comment
            • Lakers714
              SBR MVP
              • 06-17-09
              • 4671

              #7
              Originally posted by easysaid
              This has to be the best 2 teams in the pac 12 going at it, i just think with the stats about tv games and line dropping with heavy oregon money arizona look the pick.
              I agree with that angle but can't blame people for liking ORE in this spot. Their offense is legit. However, lets go Sun Devils!
              Comment
              • Urbanwildlife
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-06-11
                • 5958

                #8
                F' the Sun Devils!
                Comment
                • Joe D. 416
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 11-17-11
                  • 675

                  #9
                  ASU all the way.
                  Comment
                  • tr4sh
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 09-06-12
                    • 311

                    #10
                    Great writeup, do you have any more insight on ASU offense vs Oregon defense? And you said Oregon D gives up bunch of points in garbage time, so that mean Oregon could be up by 21/17 and the threat of backdoor is relatively high?

                    again great writeup man.
                    Comment
                    • J_smiff
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-06-12
                      • 643

                      #11
                      The crowd tomorrow night will be the most rockin' crowd ASU has seen in over a decade. 72K plus and a very good balanced O, and a very, very talented front 7 that can slow down the Ducks. Not saying Oregon won't cover, but this is gonna one hell of a game folks.
                      Comment
                      • Pride
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-12-10
                        • 4238

                        #12
                        pretty simple. bet this one live and take it to the bank.
                        Comment
                        • 2daBank
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-26-09
                          • 88966

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Pride
                          pretty simple. bet this one live and take it to the bank.
                          i really hope this one lives up to its shootout potential,,,love live betting gms where both teams light up the scoreboard, lots of chances to get plus money on both sides and always fun betting every drive ends in a td, lol..
                          Comment
                          • 2daBank
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-26-09
                            • 88966

                            #14
                            i still have my doubts about asu, admittedly i only watched them vs mizzou (very ugly gm and not very impressive losing to a team as bad tigers) and i watched a good bit of the Buffs gm, again for a large part of that gm asu didnt play great but i think they were prob looking ahead to this one and did handle their business vs a terrible team in the 2nd half... that said not like ducks have proved a whole lot as of yet and this their young qbs 1st road test, not a fan of going against the home doggies during the week either,, if i would have got it early when it was +10 or more id have took a shot on asu, surprised me number dropped like it did and just dont think i could pull trigger where it sits now..
                            Comment
                            • areallygoodnoob
                              SBR Rookie
                              • 09-06-12
                              • 24

                              #15
                              @tr4sh The back door is always a possibility in any bet, but, the 2 games that they gave up all these points were vs Fresno St and Arkansas St. These were the 1st 2 games of the year, and games they knew there was no way in hell they could lose. They were up 50-3 at vs Ak St. Gave up 31 after that point. In game 2 vs Fresno they were up 35-6, and gave up 19 in the 2nd half. Oregon's D has only given up 106 points this year, 50 of them were in those 2 spots.

                              Another reason the back door doesn't concern me too much is that Oregon knows they can't let ASU get on a roll and get the crowd back into the game late. Oregon wants to make sure they don't give the crowd any reason to get back into the game.
                              Comment
                              • Urbanwildlife
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-06-11
                                • 5958

                                #16
                                Oregon gave up all the points to Arkansas State when all there starters were out of the game, as Oregon had scored 50 points in the first half alone:

                                Oregon was up 35-7 against Tennessee Tech at halftime, and again the starters were all pulled. Tennessee Tech did catch Oregon sleeping on a pass for a touchdown in the first quarter.

                                Oregon stumbled in the first half of the Washington game. leading only 23-19, but came out in the 2nd half and scored 21 points in the 3rd quarter and eventually won 51-26.

                                Oregon in the Washington State game came out firing on all cylinders and lead at halftime 35-7, and the starters played only a few minutes in the 3rd quarter, and the game eventually ended up 52-21.

                                Yes, Oregon does have a pretty decent defense, which is also pointed out in the link I posted on Vegas Insider. The true statistics using the starting defense shows this.

                                Not much else that I can contribute to this game, so I can only wish the best of luck to everyone, and hope like hell the Oregon Ducks can take me, and the other Oregon Duck players to the pay window!
                                Comment
                                • BiffTFinancial
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 01-29-09
                                  • 22670

                                  #17
                                  lean ASU but think that over is the better option.
                                  Comment
                                  • ridims
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-15-10
                                    • 3863

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by areallygoodnoob

                                    OREGON -8 It's the public pick, but it's the smart pick.
                                    Comment
                                    • ridims
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-15-10
                                      • 3863

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Urbanwildlife
                                      I agree with you there! It is the fact that this is the first real away game for Oregon in a sold out national televised game on a Thursday night where the crowd is going to be as psyched up as the players that worries me. The other thing that scares the hell out of me is where they stated in that SBR video that the home team during these week day games has a over all record of 58-41 since ESPN started tracking this statistic 7 years ago. It is very hard to go against a percentage like this.

                                      With all this being said....... GO OREGON DUCKS!
                                      good spot to go all in.

                                      Comment
                                      • Urbanwildlife
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-06-11
                                        • 5958

                                        #20
                                        I see ridims is just another fool and antagonist, so pay him no mind. Looking forward to going to the pay window tonight compliments of the Oregon Ducks!
                                        Comment
                                        • turbozed
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-15-08
                                          • 2435

                                          #21
                                          Great write up. I also concur with the garbage points in Oregon games skewing the Oregon D's numbers. Good luck with the Ducks. I also have 2u on them tonight!
                                          Comment
                                          • Jrod124
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 10-31-09
                                            • 5622

                                            #22
                                            Great Writeup was I on the fence about this one but I am taking Oregon after reading this for a unit

                                            GL
                                            Comment
                                            • chunk
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 02-08-11
                                              • 808

                                              #23
                                              No dog in this fight, but nice job with the research. Statistics can indeed be misleading at times.
                                              Comment
                                              • areallygoodnoob
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 09-06-12
                                                • 24

                                                #24
                                                Thanks y'all. Hopefully we'll all be cashing in on this at the end of the night.
                                                Comment
                                                Search
                                                Collapse
                                                SBR Contests
                                                Collapse
                                                Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                Collapse
                                                Working...