CFB - Week 7

[LT Profits]

SATURDAY, 10/13
Kent State -1 -110 (Bookmaker)


YTD: 32-31, +1.40

[HoulihansTX]

Unloading on La Tech +8.

[fitguy67]

Houly...what do you like so much about LaTech+8?

[LT Profits]

Houly...what do you like so much about LaTech+8?

I'm not Houly but La Tech is 5-0, they are decided home dogs looking for a statement win to put them on the national map, they are averaging like 45 points per game and allowing only 15, and from A&M's perspective this is a non-conference game in the middle of an SEC schedule with LSU coming up next. I could see it.

[bane]

I'm on La Tech as well but... I have been all season.

[fitguy67]

I'm not Houly but La Tech is 5-0, they are decided home dogs looking for a statement win to put them on the national map, they are averaging like 45 points per game and allowing only 15, and from A&M's perspective this is a non-conference game in the middle of an SEC schedule with LSU coming up next. I could see it.

thanks for the explanation...sounds like value...locked some (not a Brinks truck-load like Houly...more like Schwinn basket-load for me) at Pinny (had already dropped to +7.5,-105...i bought it to +8, -113)

[LT Profits]

I held off though because La Tech hasn't faced an SEC-caliber team yet, so A&M is capable of winning by 10 points by accident.

[Vinnie Paz]

Ummm

La tech does NOT average 15 ppg against

Not even close.

[Vinnie Paz]

A&M on the other hand averages basically 45 and gives up about 15. Maybe you got them mixed up?

[LT Profits]

I'm not Houly but La Tech is 5-0, they are decided home dogs looking for a statement win to put them on the national map, they are averaging like 45 points per game and allowing only 15, and from A&M's perspective this is a non-conference game in the middle of an SEC schedule with LSU coming up next. I could see it.

A&M on the other hand averages basically 45 and gives up about 15. Maybe you got them mixed up?

Sorry yeah I was looking at A&M. La Tech averages MORE points (53.2) but they also allow 35.8. IF A&M doesn't take them seriously with an eye toward LSU, then LA Tech can score on Aggies. A&M allowed 27 to Mississippi last week and the best offense they faced the first four weeks was Arkansas in the midst of their nose dive.

[SportsMozart]

If you watched LA Tech playing Virginia you should have noticed that they play no defense at all. They should have lost that game. Leading in the middle of the 4-th 44:24, they faltered completely and if not for offside faul on the last attack of Virginia...I think they would have lost. Virginia would have taken it in and score was 44:38. LA Tech will not beat Texas A&M. Instead I would say this game has a chance of going over 100 points.

[LT Profits]

7 Saturday Plays So Far

And now, back to the games.

SATURDAY, 10/13
Louisville -3 -108 (Heritage)
Iowa +10 -110 (Bookmaker)
Kent State -1 -110 (Bookmaker)
Maryland +115 ML (5 Dimes)
UCLA -7 -123 (Heritage)
Stanford +8.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
New Mexico -3 -129 (Heritage)

[jakeloftin2186]

A&m will score at will against la tech and la tech offensive stats are padded cuz of their schedule

[LT Profits]

9 Saturday Plays So Far

SATURDAY, 10/13
Louisville -3 -108 (Heritage)
Texas +3.5 -113 (Heritage)
Iowa +10 -110 (Bookmaker)
Kent State -1 -110 (Bookmaker)
Maryland +115 ML (5 Dimes)
UCLA -7 -123 (Heritage)
Stanford +8.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Texas-San Antonio +3.5 -113 (Heritage)
New Mexico -3 -129 (Heritage)

[LT Profits]

12 Saturday Plays So Far!

SATURDAY, 10/13
Louisville -3 -108 (Heritage)
Texas +3.5 -113 (Heritage)
Iowa +10 -110 (Bookmaker)
Kent State -1 -110 (Bookmaker)
UAB +14.5 -124 (Heritage)
North Carolina -7 -110 (Bookmaker)
Maryland +115 ML (5 Dimes)
UCLA -7 -123 (Heritage)
Stanford +8.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Texas-San Antonio +3.5 -113 (Heritage)
Memphis +18 -110 (Bookmaker)
New Mexico -3 -129 (Heritage)

[homerbush]

Damn those are some nice picks!

[ZINISTER]

Careful with the Kent pick LT. They play right up the street from me. Go easy on it, the MLB for Kent is a catchers mitt. They may have trouble stoping the belly back up the gut. Goodluck though! Peace

[fitguy67]

SATURDAY, 10/13
Texas +3.5 -113 (Heritage)
Texas-San Antonio +3.5 -113 (Heritage)

I can find the first one, Texas (at Oklahoma )
But that second one, Texas-SanAntonio has me stumped (i scoured both Yahoo and Heritage for it)...maybe this is duplicate of the one above, and there are really 11 distinct Saturday plays so far?

[plc44]

On the La Tech discussion just some facts:

LA Tech is 109th in scoring defense, other opponents a&m have played: SMU is 63rd, Ole Miss is 75th.

La tech gives up 35 a game, and UH put up 49 (season high) the first game they had a new OC. Rice put up 36, Virginia put up 38 (lost to Duke 42-17 the next week), UNLV put up 31 (1-5 including a loss to Northern Arizona), Johnny Manzeil and a&m will score points.

A&M has suspensions and injury problems at safety, so LA Tech will also score points.

La Tech averages 92 penalty yards a game, worst in the NCAA.

Combined La Tech opponents record is 8-21, not including those teams FCS wins, it is 6-21. They haven't played anyone.

I think Sumlin and A&M win handily.

[LT Profits]

I can find the first one, Texas (at Oklahoma )
But that second one, Texas-SanAntonio has me stumped (i scoured both Yahoo and Heritage for it)...maybe this is duplicate of the one above, and there are really 11 distinct Saturday plays so far?

No, UTSA is facing Rice.

[fitguy67]

thanks lt...another case of forgetting that "once upon a time there was this amazing thing called google"

[LT Profits]

14 Saturday Plays So Far

SATURDAY, 10/13
Louisville -3 -108 (Heritage)
Texas +3.5 -113 (Heritage)
Iowa +10 -110 (Bookmaker)
Kent State -1 -110 (Bookmaker)
UAB +14.5 -124 (Heritage)
North Carolina -7 -110 (Bookmaker)
Maryland +115 ML (5 Dimes)
UCLA -7 -123 (Heritage)
Miami-Ohio +7.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Stanford +8.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Texas-San Antonio +3.5 -113 (Heritage)
Memphis +18 -110 (Bookmaker)
Air Force / Wyoming UNDER 60 -110 (5 Dimes)
New Mexico -3 -129 (Heritage)

Probably no more adds until game days (if at all)

[hougigo]

Thoughts on Northwestern?

[LT Profits]

THURSDAY Addition

THURSDAY, 10/11
UTEP OVER 21 -105 (Team Total) (Rebate Wager)

[scottsins]

Thoughts on Northwestern?

He thinks that it's not a play, since it's not in his list of plays.

[statnerds]

how the fukk is this on page 3?

sad state of affairs.

[LT Profits]

Added Iowa ML

SATURDAY, 10/13
Louisville -3 -108 (Heritage)
Texas +3.5 -113 (Heritage)
Iowa +10 -110 (Bookmaker)
Iowa +275 ML (5 Dimes)
Kent State -1 -110 (Bookmaker)
UAB +14.5 -124 (Heritage)
North Carolina -7 -110 (Bookmaker)
Maryland +115 ML (5 Dimes)
UCLA -7 -123 (Heritage)
Miami-Ohio +7.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Stanford +8.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Texas-San Antonio +3.5 -113 (Heritage)
Memphis +18 -110 (Bookmaker)
Air Force / Wyoming UNDER 60 -110 (5 Dimes)
New Mexico -3 -129 (Heritage)


YTD: 32-32, +0.35

1 More Update Coming

[LT Profits]

CFB 18-Pack

SATURDAY, 10/13
Louisville -3 -108 (Heritage)
Texas +3.5 -113 (Heritage)
Iowa +10 -110 (Bookmaker)
Iowa +275 ML (5 Dimes)
Kent State -1 -110 (Bookmaker)
UAB +14.5 -124 (Heritage)
North Carolina -7 -110 (Bookmaker)
Maryland +115 ML (5 Dimes)
UCLA -7 -123 (Heritage)
Miami-Ohio +7.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Stanford +8.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Texas-San Antonio +3.5 -113 (Heritage)
Memphis +18 -110 (Bookmaker)
Air Force / Wyoming UNDER 60 -110 (5 Dimes)
New Mexico -3 -129 (Heritage)


YTD: 32-32, +0.35

1 More Update Coming

Adding:
Duke +10 -119 (Heritage)
West Virginia / Texas Tech UNDER 76.5 -107 (5 Dimes)
Texas A&M / Louisiana Tech UNDER 79 -110 (Bookmaker)


CFB Card Complete

[SportsMozart]

And now, back to the games.

SATURDAY, 10/13
Louisville -3 -108 (Heritage)
Iowa +10 -110 (Bookmaker)
Kent State -1 -110 (Bookmaker)
Maryland +115 ML (5 Dimes)
UCLA -7 -123 (Heritage)
Stanford +8.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
New Mexico -3 -129 (Heritage)

Should have closed the book with your original pikcs... Nothing but the net baby! That's one smart man! But we always want more and that is how we blow it.

[fitguy67]

Should have closed the book with your original pikcs... Nothing but the net baby! That's one smart man! But we always want more and that is how we blow it.

you don't suppose it would be possible to find previous cards where first half of the picks were still-born and the late-adds saved the day...

this is gambling...you can "cap" (ie. analyze) fair coin flips at +110 (a special promo price on heads, for example) as a "sharp" (ie. intelligent) long-term play...it is, with a 5% return...so you wisely play each and every flip at this +ev price

but this in no way prevents the flips from going thru streaks the way they do...you flip the coin, you spin the ball, you let the boys play the game, you let the cookie crumble....things unfold the way they do, in the sequence they do...independent of who (no matter how "sharp") has a bet on it...

to come along after a dozen flips and say which ones should have been played selectively is ridic...each and every flip (whether it turns out as a pleasant winning H or a painful losing T) is accurately capped to be "worth" playing (ie.with positive expected value over the haul...with the probabilities of BOTH wins and losses factored in)...

replace the word "flip" in the paragraph above with "play" and you'll make an intellectual leap that 95% of those on this board have and never will make...that a capper/analyst is NOT "finding tonight's winners", but "tonight's VALUE"...that--over the season--will accumulate money

[LT Profits]

Still finished +1.81 for day.