Hey SBR Forums! So my last write up got hosed pretty badly on a fumble in the end-zone that appeared to break the plane first. Ah well, wasn't quite as bad as some of the calls in the NFL this last weekend so I guess we just move on. We're moving on to the always loud Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta for what should be another ground game this weekend. I'm trying a new format for this write-up in an attempt to make this easier to glance at and take a fraction of the time to write (we'll see how it goes).
Disclaimer & Record
I try to choose games no one is talking about. I cannot predict which games are going to be talking points and may occasionally overlap into the "popular" discussions. For the most part I will try and write up an angle or a play on which I don't think many people are going to be doing research. I will never write on a bet that is greater than -175 and will try to find as many underdog opportunities as possible. My write ups are almost always going to be biased as I am portraying why I am personally betting on the game. They are not complete and should never be taken as gospel. If you want a 360 degree view, do further research (as all posters and bettors should be doing anyway).
2011 NCAAF Write Ups 11-11 (+8.3u)
2012 NCAAF Write Ups 1-2 (-3.6u)
-----Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets-----
Quarterback---------------- Logan Kilgore -------------------- Tevin Washington
Completions/Attempts -------59/85(69.4%)-----------------------26/42 (61.9%)
Yards --------------------------671--------------------------------514
TD/INT -------------------------6/1--------------------------------3/1
Sacks (taken) -------------------0----------------------------------4
Rushing Leader(s)----Jordan Parker/Drayton Calhoun--------Tevin Washington/ Zach Laskey*
Yards/Attempts(Avg)--176/33(5.3)--169/31(5.5)--------------300/59(5.1)----269/43(6.3)
Kicker------------------------Carlos Lopez-----------------------David Scully
Made/Attempts(Long)-----------5/5(43)----------------------------2/2(34)
Team Statistics----------------------------------Offense-------------
Points For----------------------33.3--------------------------------42.0
Avg. Time of Poss.-------------32:35-------------------------------31:33
Yards/Play----------------------6.3---------------------------------6.4
Points/Play---------------------0.55--------------------------------0.54
3rd Down Conversion % --------52.0%------------------------------46.3%
Team Statistics----------------------------------Defense-------------
Points Against------------------24.7--------------------------------21.3
Points/Play(Against)------------0.35--------------------------------0.37
Pass Yards Allowed-------------245.7-------------------------------240.8
Rush Yards Allowed-------------157.7-------------------------------128.0
Sacks/Game(Given)--------------1.5---------------------------------1.3
Takeaways/Game----------------3.0---------------------------------1.3
First Downs Given(Penalties)-----1.0---------------------------------4.3
Final Notes
Time of possession will be key in this game, both teams need the clock to score and neither defense is particularly stout. I expect a lot of 3rd and 1 situations in this game and whichever team can convert will wear down the other's defense.
Middle Tennessee has been gearing up for this game since the off-season and is coming prepared off of a bye-week. The Blue Raiders have cut down on their rushing yards allowed from 229.6 to 157.6 since last season. Georgia Tech is caught in a look ahead spot and is likely looking past MTSU to Clemson next week.
*Zach Laskey is listed as probable as of this writing and will likely see limited play time against MTSU.
If this one can be kept close, Logan Kilgore is an underrated quarterback and led his team to score the 24th most points in the nation in the 4th quarter last year at 8.4/game.
Strength of Schedule is the real deciding factor for the points spread of this game and I'm not dancing around it. The Blue Raiders have already lost to an FCS team for their first game of the year and Georgia Tech has only lost to Virginia Tech (in OT) and Miami (in OT).
I think these teams line up much more equally than the linesmakers are giving them credit for and I expect this to turn into a viable game.
My Play
+27.5 @ -110 5u
ML @ +2800 1u * This is purely a value play, I only give MTSU a 7-9% chance to win this game, but at 28:1 it's hard to pass up. Also, this game just happens to be on my birthday and I can't think of a better gift than a +2800 live dog.
The End
Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!
Disclaimer & Record
I try to choose games no one is talking about. I cannot predict which games are going to be talking points and may occasionally overlap into the "popular" discussions. For the most part I will try and write up an angle or a play on which I don't think many people are going to be doing research. I will never write on a bet that is greater than -175 and will try to find as many underdog opportunities as possible. My write ups are almost always going to be biased as I am portraying why I am personally betting on the game. They are not complete and should never be taken as gospel. If you want a 360 degree view, do further research (as all posters and bettors should be doing anyway).
2011 NCAAF Write Ups 11-11 (+8.3u)
2012 NCAAF Write Ups 1-2 (-3.6u)
-----Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets-----Quarterback---------------- Logan Kilgore -------------------- Tevin Washington
Completions/Attempts -------59/85(69.4%)-----------------------26/42 (61.9%)
Yards --------------------------671--------------------------------514
TD/INT -------------------------6/1--------------------------------3/1
Sacks (taken) -------------------0----------------------------------4
Rushing Leader(s)----Jordan Parker/Drayton Calhoun--------Tevin Washington/ Zach Laskey*
Yards/Attempts(Avg)--176/33(5.3)--169/31(5.5)--------------300/59(5.1)----269/43(6.3)
Kicker------------------------Carlos Lopez-----------------------David Scully
Made/Attempts(Long)-----------5/5(43)----------------------------2/2(34)
Team Statistics----------------------------------Offense-------------
Points For----------------------33.3--------------------------------42.0
Avg. Time of Poss.-------------32:35-------------------------------31:33
Yards/Play----------------------6.3---------------------------------6.4
Points/Play---------------------0.55--------------------------------0.54
3rd Down Conversion % --------52.0%------------------------------46.3%
Team Statistics----------------------------------Defense-------------
Points Against------------------24.7--------------------------------21.3
Points/Play(Against)------------0.35--------------------------------0.37
Pass Yards Allowed-------------245.7-------------------------------240.8
Rush Yards Allowed-------------157.7-------------------------------128.0
Sacks/Game(Given)--------------1.5---------------------------------1.3
Takeaways/Game----------------3.0---------------------------------1.3
First Downs Given(Penalties)-----1.0---------------------------------4.3
Final Notes
Time of possession will be key in this game, both teams need the clock to score and neither defense is particularly stout. I expect a lot of 3rd and 1 situations in this game and whichever team can convert will wear down the other's defense.
Middle Tennessee has been gearing up for this game since the off-season and is coming prepared off of a bye-week. The Blue Raiders have cut down on their rushing yards allowed from 229.6 to 157.6 since last season. Georgia Tech is caught in a look ahead spot and is likely looking past MTSU to Clemson next week.
*Zach Laskey is listed as probable as of this writing and will likely see limited play time against MTSU.
If this one can be kept close, Logan Kilgore is an underrated quarterback and led his team to score the 24th most points in the nation in the 4th quarter last year at 8.4/game.
Strength of Schedule is the real deciding factor for the points spread of this game and I'm not dancing around it. The Blue Raiders have already lost to an FCS team for their first game of the year and Georgia Tech has only lost to Virginia Tech (in OT) and Miami (in OT).
I think these teams line up much more equally than the linesmakers are giving them credit for and I expect this to turn into a viable game.
My Play
+27.5 @ -110 5u ML @ +2800 1u * This is purely a value play, I only give MTSU a 7-9% chance to win this game, but at 28:1 it's hard to pass up. Also, this game just happens to be on my birthday and I can't think of a better gift than a +2800 live dog.The End
Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!
I know you enjoyed that stroll to the pay window!