UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz (Dec 08)

[Judgejoebrwn]

This card will contain one of my biggest bets of the year, too. Also, Rory Mac may not be too solid a bet guys. Warning you in advance, don't get burned. BJ is actually training for once and he made a joke out of Fitch with no training camp.

Made a joke out of Fitch? You mean...in the DRAW?

Don't get me wrong, I'm a big Penn fan, but you wanna talk about ring rust and coming in against a top contender? Dude has been out for 13+ months, left 1-3-1 in his last 5 (at LW no less), and he's coming back to WW to fight arguably the best up-and-comer in the UFC. Watch any of Rory's fights - he OBLITERATED Nate Diaz with his wrestling, he was 2-0 going into the 3rd against Condit before he got caught, and he dominated a large, possible prospect in Che Mills. I think his wrestling is far superior to that of Edgar, especially considering his size. He's going to ground-and-pound the hell out of a rusty Penn and out-cardio him to a 3-round UD most likely.

As Gustafsson/Hua - I'm a fan of Gustafsson here. I do like Hua, but I think his prime has passed (much like Rampage or Hughes). Gustafsson has showed considerable promise, winning 5 in a row and only losing once early in his UFC career to Phil Davis. He's the only LHW with a reach comparable to that of Jones and he's great at utilizing it. I see him picking Hua apart similar, but not to the severity, to Jones. Probably a UD win as well.

Hendo/Diaz - I'll admit - I hate the entire Stockton/Cesar Gracie camp. Both Diaz brothers and Shields (haven't seen enough of Melendez really) could die somewhere and I wouldn't be bothered at all. Having said that, I respect Nate a bit more than Nick given his tenure in the UFC. However, while his sub over Miller was impressive, I think he's being a bit overrated due to his demolition of Cerrone. Cerrone was a HUGE favorite in that fight, and yet got out there and stood flat-footed, no head movement, and hands down for the larger portion of that fight and literally LET Diaz hit him. I can't credit Diaz for a shitty performance by his opponent. I think if Hendo utilizes his wrestling like MacDonald did, it could be a pretty easy night for him as his cardio is nasty.

[MD]

Made a joke out of Fitch? You mean...in the DRAW?

Don't get me wrong, I'm a big Penn fan, but you wanna talk about ring rust and coming in against a top contender? Dude has been out for 13+ months, left 1-3-1 in his last 5 (at LW no less), and he's coming back to WW to fight arguably the best up-and-comer in the UFC. Watch any of Rory's fights - he OBLITERATED Nate Diaz with his wrestling, he was 2-0 going into the 3rd against Condit before he got caught, and he dominated a large, possible prospect in Che Mills. I think his wrestling is far superior to that of Edgar, especially considering his size. He's going to ground-and-pound the hell out of a rusty Penn and out-cardio him to a 3-round UD most likely.

As Gustafsson/Hua - I'm a fan of Gustafsson here. I do like Hua, but I think his prime has passed (much like Rampage or Hughes). Gustafsson has showed considerable promise, winning 5 in a row and only losing once early in his UFC career to Phil Davis. He's the only LHW with a reach comparable to that of Jones and he's great at utilizing it. I see him picking Hua apart similar, but not to the severity, to Jones. Probably a UD win as well.

Hendo/Diaz - I'll admit - I hate the entire Stockton/Cesar Gracie camp. Both Diaz brothers and Shields (haven't seen enough of Melendez really) could die somewhere and I wouldn't be bothered at all. Having said that, I respect Nate a bit more than Nick given his tenure in the UFC. However, while his sub over Miller was impressive, I think he's being a bit overrated due to his demolition of Cerrone. Cerrone was a HUGE favorite in that fight, and yet got out there and stood flat-footed, no head movement, and hands down for the larger portion of that fight and literally LET Diaz hit him. I can't credit Diaz for a shitty performance by his opponent. I think if Hendo utilizes his wrestling like MacDonald did, it could be a pretty easy night for him as his cardio is nasty.

Gustafsson's reach is not comparable to Jones by any means. Jones enjoys a considerable edge over him. Gustafsson's reach is more comparable to Anderson Silva's.

And yes, the fight was a draw, but only because BJ gassed and got 10-8'd in the third. He took the first two in spectacular fashion. Was quite embarrassing for a guy like Fitch, a massive WW, to be taken down and controlled by a natural featherweight.

I disagree about Rory, for what that's worth. I think his wrestling is very good but no where near Edgar's level. No where near it whatsoever. Edgar is taking down guys who have 20 lbs on him and Rory is having difficulty taking down guys he has a massive size edge on. The difference in their application is the main thing, however. Rory's takedowns have very little set up and are mostly a result of pure brute strength. I wouldn't be surprised if you were right and Rory ran through BJ, but I don't think it's a safe bet.

[Vaughany]

Will Henderson execute a perfect game plan? Probably not. Against Nate Diaz, I don't believe he has to. Benson has amazing sub defense and he doesn't have to worry about getting KO'd. So you have to say that Nate Diaz is going to win a 5 round decision over a stronger wrestler if you have him winning. It could happen, but at the current odds, I'm not betting on it.

From the two Edgar fights (more so the re-match) it does seem with Henderson that he's reverted back to his old ways of being a bit of passive and not pushing the pace. After the Pettis loss he said that he'd be a different fighter and constantly push the pace in fights and that's exactly what he did against Miller, Bocek, and Guida and is why he won those fights comfortably. But then he against Edgar he sort of just stood in the centre looking to land big shots and is why Edgar stole some rounds from him just because of higher output. Maybe it was just because of Edgar's style and he perhaps thought that was the best way to fight against Edgar, but if he fights like that against Diaz he could lose rounds just because Diaz is similar to Edgar in that he is a high volume striker (even if their styles are obviously very different). Perhaps the fact that Henderson is Champ has made him think that he doesnt have to push the pace as much anymore as it's up to the opponent to take it from him (kind of a psychological thing). Either way Im probably just gonna bet fight goes distance or put Starts Round 3 or something in a few parlays

[Vaughany]

Well the pattern is ok. He has a history of losing to strong wrestlers no doubt. But do you think diaz 2012 would lose to these fighters in a 5.round fight? He would probably lose to rory mac 7 days a week, but who wouldnt?

what you rely on benson to do is executing the game plan you want him to do. For several rounds. Bensons gameplan against frankie was to kick frankies lead leg, and to me that seems to work out pretty good, so why did he stop doing it? At the press conference he explained that frankie adjusted, and that he didnt find the room to continue doing it. That could happen against diaz. Maybe after the first two rounds this gameplan goes to hell? what then?

I have learned to not trust fighters execute perfect gameplans, if youre just trusting a fighter to do what he normally does, its a safer road. Diaz outclasses people right now, we thought miller was going to wrestle him as well. what happened? we thought cerrone somehow was going to do something smart, either leg kick him or wrestle him... its just not a very good idea to trust these fighters doing what they originally was set out to do. But i also love nate diaz style, i may be biased

Yes, I think fighters perhaps do go in with a gameplan but due to Diaz's pressure and high volume they lose composure and before they know it are in a "dog fight" to take Condit's favourite phrase! Obviously with Cerrone though he had no gameplan other than to fight like a chump and get picked apart for three-rounds

[Vaughany]

Gustafsson's reach is not comparable to Jones by any means. Jones enjoys a considerable edge over him. Gustafsson's reach is more comparable to Anderson Silva's.

And yes, the fight was a draw, but only because BJ gassed and got 10-8'd in the third. He took the first two in spectacular fashion. Was quite embarrassing for a guy like Fitch, a massive WW, to be taken down and controlled by a natural featherweight.

I disagree about Rory, for what that's worth. I think his wrestling is very good but no where near Edgar's level. No where near it whatsoever. Edgar is taking down guys who have 20 lbs on him and Rory is having difficulty taking down guys he has a massive size edge on. The difference in their application is the main thing, however. Rory's takedowns have very little set up and are mostly a result of pure brute strength. I wouldn't be surprised if you were right and Rory ran through BJ, but I don't think it's a safe bet.

Rory is very good at timing his take-downs, and has solid body-lock take-downs and is equally good at catching leg kicks or just taking the opportunity when opponent is off balance. If you watch the Che Mills fight I think it was the take-down in second round...he barely puts any effort in to it, but it's just perfect timing when Mills is slightly off balance from throwing a leg kick. His bodylock takedowns will be the best way to go though (like in the Diaz fight) as BJ is harder to takedown through freestyle type double legs or single leg takedowns due to his amazing balance. Problem with body-lock takedowns is you often end up in side control or in a position where you cant apply too much pressure so the opponent often has enough space to get back to their feet, like in the Diaz fight Rory had to just keep lifting Diaz up and throwing him back down then Diaz would get back to his knees so Rory would lift and drag him to mat again. With single-leg and double-leg takedowns you can end up in guard more often which may actually be where Rory (and Zahabi) want the fight to go and would prefer Rory to be. From that position he can control BJ more and grind out on top using his size and GnP, BJ has never really been a big threat with triangles or armbars due to his size disadvantage. His strength as always been reversals and taking the back like he did against Fitch but it's going to be very hard wit Rory's size and constant pressure to achieve this.

[bjpenn85]

Are you on Benson or Diaz or none of them 8.dec, V?

[Vaughany]

Are you on Benson or Diaz or none of them 8.dec, V?

Jus fight goes distance me thinks!

[DirtyX]

Jus fight goes distance me thinks!

I will be betting small on Diaz as I think he has more than a legit chance here. Benson is the rightful favorite, but this fight should be FOTN material. I like this play V. I actually like it better than Diaz or Benson at the current straight up odds. What's the odds on fight goes the distance? If it's not out yet, what do you cap it at?

[Vaughany]

I will be betting small on Diaz as I think he has more than a legit chance here. Benson is the rightful favorite, but this fight should be FOTN material. I like this play V. I actually like it better than Diaz or Benson at the current straight up odds. What's the odds on fight goes the distance? If it's not out yet, what do you cap it at?

-210 on sportbet/5dimes. I played in a parlay, and will add more nearer to the fight if it goes to -150 to -175 range. Odds for fight goes distance tend to get better in the hours leading up to the fight, for instance I think GSP/Condit to go Distance went down to -110 or -120 by fight time when it was at -175 to -200 range for a long time in weeks leading up to fight. The fight goes distance for Cote/Sakara had massive movement a couple hours before fight, went from +260 to +360 or something around that.

[PunisherIND]

-210 on sportbet/5dimes. I played in a parlay, and will add more nearer to the fight if it goes to -150 to -175 range. Odds for fight goes distance tend to get better in the hours leading up to the fight, for instance I think GSP/Condit to go Distance went down to -110 or -120 by fight time when it was at -175 to -200 range for a long time in weeks leading up to fight. The fight goes distance for Cote/Sakara had massive movement a couple hours before fight, went from +260 to +360 or something around that.

i couldnt believe how low some of the distance/itd lines moved in the hours preceding the fight. there were some real gifts.

i wish i could have posted some of these lines, but i had to rush out to get to my buddy's house for the ppv. gsp/condit goes distance actually got to +105 if i remember correctly. crazy. griggs/diabate itd got down to -215. sakara/cote itd got down to -210! makdessi/stout goes distance dropped down to -195.

[Rubber Guard]

Yea never understood why people think Gustaf has such a big reach.

If they looked at the numbers once they would perhaps realize this.

[Vaughany]

i couldnt believe how low some of the distance/itd lines moved in the hours preceding the fight. there were some real gifts.

i wish i could have posted some of these lines, but i had to rush out to get to my buddy's house for the ppv. gsp/condit goes distance actually got to +105 if i remember correctly. crazy. griggs/diabate itd got down to -215. sakara/cote itd got down to -210! makdessi/stout goes distance dropped down to -195.

yeah, I it was probably GSP by decision at -110 that I saw late on and not just distance

[Thor4140]

Made a joke out of Fitch? You mean...in the DRAW?



Hendo/Diaz - I'll admit - I hate the entire Stockton/Cesar Gracie camp. Both Diaz brothers and Shields (haven't seen enough of Melendez really) could die somewhere and I wouldn't be bothered at all. Having said that, I respect Nate a bit more than Nick given his tenure in the UFC. However, while his sub over Miller was impressive, I think he's being a bit overrated due to his demolition of Cerrone. Cerrone was a HUGE favorite in that fight, and yet got out there and stood flat-footed, no head movement, and hands down for the larger portion of that fight and literally LET Diaz hit him. I can't credit Diaz for a shitty performance by his opponent. I think if Hendo utilizes his wrestling like MacDonald did, it could be a pretty easy night for him as his cardio is nasty.

This is another of your hysterical post. I said to anyone who would listen that the Nate Cerrone fight should be a pick or Nate should be favorite because he was the better boxer. I was all over Nate in that one and he did what i thought he would. Nate takes no punishment because of the way he boxes and rolls with punches. Rory never came close to having him hurt with punches unless it was on the ground. Cerrone only shot was with kicks which i was worried about. Nate completely dominated him and to not give him credit and say it was just a shitty performace by Cerrone is a freakin Joke. Come on man. Nate is one of the pest boxers in the UFC because he knows how to fight defensively unlike most of these guys like Hominick or Hardy. He just doesn't have much power but it looks like he has learned how to cut weight and now looks much stronger (to me)at 155 than in the past. At 170 he isn't knocking anyone out.

[Thor4140]

Henderson better use wrestling in this fight or he will get picked apart. I hope Nate learned something with the Stevenson fight or it could be a long day. if this stays on the feet Nate wins this one. Nate does get hit with a lot of kicks and this could also be a problem. I would take Nate in this one.

[Judgejoebrwn]

This is another of your hysterical post. I said to anyone who would listen that the Nate Cerrone fight should be a pick or Nate should be favorite because he was the better boxer. I was all over Nate in that one and he did what i thought he would. Nate takes no punishment because of the way he boxes and rolls with punches. Rory never came close to having him hurt with punches unless it was on the ground. Cerrone only shot was with kicks which i was worried about. Nate completely dominated him and to not give him credit and say it was just a shitty performace by Cerrone is a freakin Joke. Come on man. Nate is one of the pest boxers in the UFC because he knows how to fight defensively unlike most of these guys like Hominick or Hardy. He just doesn't have much power but it looks like he has learned how to cut weight and now looks much stronger (to me)at 155 than in the past. At 170 he isn't knocking anyone out.

Of course, I'm just a regular f*ckin' comic at the Apollo. Lol! I'll take compliments when I can get 'em.

Watch the fight again and try to take the bias out of it. Cerrone just stood there. He's never looked worse in a fight. Nate destroyed him, but I could've hit Cerrone at will that night. As I said, I can tolerate Nate to a degree. Not a fan of his antics, but I respect him from a fighter perspective. That said, he had real trouble with wrestlers at 170 and Henderson is a mighty big LW. If Hendo utilizes that advantage, I think he takes this fight.

[bogbat]

Will Diaz be able to avoid Henderson's take downs? *gifs* & *gif request*

This is the biggest question needed to answered in order to begin handicapping this fight, because lets face it, the judges will most likely ignore what Nate does off of his back, a la Nate Diaz-Dong Hyun Kim (I thought Nate won that fight).

I think it is safe to say that he won't be manhandled like he did vs McDonald. Rory had a significant size and strength advantage and was likely juicing :









Even if Diaz does threaten from the bottom, it is unlikely that he will be able to submit Henderson considering the submission defense he has shown in the past (Henderson-Cerrone)


Also, will Diaz be able to take down Henderson? He'll probably look to keep it standing but even if he attempts he probably won't be able to take him down and keep him down.






Some Bendo Gifs:






I'm having trouble finding gifs since iron forges iron is no more. Please post any Diaz-Henderson related gifs, especially of their take downs and getting taken down.

[PunisherIND]

Man, I think even bendo would have tapped to that move nate put on jim miller - what was it, modified darce? That shit was brutal. I almost shoved an ice cream stick into the tv so jim wouldn't bite his tongue off.

[Thor4140]

Of course, I'm just a regular f*ckin' comic at the Apollo. Lol! I'll take compliments when I can get 'em.

Watch the fight again and try to take the bias out of it. Cerrone just stood there. He's never looked worse in a fight. Nate destroyed him, but I could've hit Cerrone at will that night. As I said, I can tolerate Nate to a degree. Not a fan of his antics, but I respect him from a fighter perspective. That said, he had real trouble with wrestlers at 170 and Henderson is a mighty big LW. If Hendo utilizes that advantage, I think he takes this fight.

There is no bias. Cerrone really hasn't fought a striker of Nates caliber. Yes he fought Gullard and almost got knocked out but Guillard is another guy who has shitty defense. He fought Stevens and i always liked Jeremy but he looks like he has slipped recently for some reason. the rest of the guys are not that good of boxers. Nate also has a pretty tight beard. I think Nate is a better boxer than his brother. Nick just has more power and i think Nick gets hit more. I couldn't care less about the Diaz brothers but i do like to watch them fight.

[Vaughany]

[Crassus]

Penn training with funky, that's what i like to see!

[Rubber Guard]

Ceasar Gracie predicts Nate by sub in round 3 or 4. And I agree with him.

Bendo has good sub D. But he lets himself get in many bad spots. He has never faced a guy with the finishing sub ability like Nate. If he lets him get in deep he isn't getting out of this one. I wish I jumped on the opener. Fight could go either way. Nate with dot him up on the feet. Bendo will no doubt get TDs. Bendo will have some GnP but not go too crazy. If Nate doesn't sub him I could see Bendo winning a decision. They both have enough cardio.

[omalley21]

Ive got Nate +260, Gonna play bendo by decision, and FOTN. Seems like the most profitable way to play it. Ive got Rory, gonna hedge with BJ in round 1. And im gonna pound Gustafson, no hedge.

[brokenbrain]

Ive got Nate +260, Gonna play bendo by decision, and FOTN. Seems like the most profitable way to play it. Ive got Rory, gonna hedge with BJ in round 1. And im gonna pound Gustafson, no hedge.

Where did you get N. Diaz @ +260???

[Vaughany]

Where did you get N. Diaz @ +260???

Sportsbook

[bjpenn85]

sportsbook.com, those amateurs..

[KR495]

Ben and Nate Diaz will be a solid main event fight. I really wished they'd put this fight on PPV as opposed to having it on free TV. While watching a Nate Diaz fight you see a 155lb version of Nick Diaz; short, nonstop strikes/combos with nasty ground n pound to compliment world class jiu jitsu. In Ben Henderson you see a durable fighter that can withstand punishment, land precise strikes, and has a solid jiu jitsu game. The weight cutting by Henderson will be a factor as he's known to walk around at 175lb during camp. Diaz on the other hand walks around at the same weight he fights at, if not the exact weight. The endurance and cardio advantage will go to Diaz as both he and his brother Nick have conditioned themselves as triathletes when not fighting. If the fight does go to the championship rounds, Bendo's large weight cut will play a factor. He becomes more vulnerable to takedown attempts and can be outpointed on strikes if Diaz throws the barrages of jabs,crosses and leg kicks and takedown attempts he's known to throw from rounds 1-5.

I have Nate Diaz outpointing Bendo and pulling the upset here.

[Vaughany]

Diaz walks around at 155?


"While Diaz admits the difficulty of competing at 155 pounds, the fiery Stockton, Calif., native said he cut less than 10 pounds in the final weeks before the Monday fight. Nevertheless, Diaz said he felt drained after three rounds.

On his way back to trainer/manager Cesar Gracie's gym Tuesday, Diaz said it would only take him a week to tip the scales at 190 pounds."

[KR495]

I should've said close to his fighting weight of 155, which is not much compared to the exorbitant cuts you've seen guys like Gleison Tibau who walks around at 190, also Gray Maynard who walks at the 185 lb range. Diaz along with brother Nick are vegetarians, which makes it easier for them to stay close to their fighting weight and to cut weight for their fights.

The large weight gain Gracie spoke about results from rehydration and the body absorbing everything eaten or drank after going into starvation mode. After Diego Sanchez cut to 155lbs for one of his weigh ins on a Friday afternoon, he was already tipping the 180s that monday. Some other site had Bendo pushing around 195 the week after his first fight with Frankie Edgar. Another example is Jorge Gurgel's wife who fought at 135 went on a severe cut to 115, and ballooned to 155+lbs a few days after.

[MD]

I should've said close to his fighting weight of 155, which is not much compared to the exorbitant cuts you've seen guys like Gleison Tibau who walks around at 190, also Gray Maynard who walks at the 185 lb range. Diaz along with brother Nick are vegetarians, which makes it easier for them to stay close to their fighting weight and to cut weight for their fights.

The large weight gain Gracie spoke about results from rehydration and the body absorbing everything eaten or drank after going into starvation mode. After Diego Sanchez cut to 155lbs for one of his weigh ins on a Friday afternoon, he was already tipping the 180s that monday. Some other site had Bendo pushing around 195 the week after his first fight with Frankie Edgar. Another example is Jorge Gurgel's wife who fought at 135 went on a severe cut to 115, and ballooned to 155+lbs a few days after.

We all understand how weight cuts work, buddy.

Anyway, being vegetarian does not help anyone to cut weight; limiting your selection of foods cannot logically help to cut weight, only hinder it.

[bjpenn85]

to be vegetarian helps to cut weight. Figure out why yourself..

[MD]

to be vegetarian helps to cut weight. Figure out why yourself..

No, it doesn't. This is a fact.

Non-vegetarians can eat everything vegetarians eat, plus more. They have more options available to them. They can eat meat, or not eat meat. They can eat the exact same diet that a vegetarian does, in order to cut weight, but a vegetarian can not eat a non-vegetarian diet in the same circumstances. Having the option to eat meat cannot logically be a hindrance.

[bjpenn85]

the consequence for many by becoming a vegetarian very often is increased nutritional knowledge.Its quite difficult for you MD, to asess the ramification of what happens then. The main thing is, that vegetarian food generally are less calorie dense which make it easier habit wise to go down in weight. You often here people that become vegetarians say they loose weight, and there are en abundance of research showing that vegetarians generally are less over weight than non-vegetarians.

[MD]

the consequence for many by becoming a vegetarian very often is increased nutritional knowledge.Its quite difficult for you MD, to asess the ramification of what happens then. The main thing is, that vegetarian food generally are less calorie dense which make it easier habit wise to go down in weight. You often here people that become vegetarians say they loose weight, and there are en abundance of research showing that vegetarians generally are less over weight than non-vegetarians.

What you're saying is that a vegetarian diet can assist a fighter in cutting weight; I can factually disprove this idea with basic logic. You don't seem to understand my point; non-vegetarians can eat the exact same foods as vegetarians if they choose to. There are no foods that a vegetarian includes in their diet that a non-vegetarian must exclude; the opposite is not true. Most top MMA fighters have a nutritionist offering them the best diet plans possible. The difference between a vegetarian and a non-vegetarian is that a non-vegetarian can include meats and other such foods. If the best possible diet for weight cutting is purely vegetarian, then non-vegetarians can also eat this diet, and suffer no downsides in comparison to a vegetarian diet. If the best possible diet for weight cutting is not purely vegetarian, then a non-vegetarian suffers no downsides, but a vegetarian does. There are no downsides to non-vegetarian lifestyles when it comes to weight cutting, but there are downsides to a vegetarian diet. Do you see my point now?

[KR495]

We all understand how weight cuts work, buddy.

Anyway, being vegetarian does not help anyone to cut weight; limiting your selection of foods cannot logically help to cut weight, only hinder it.

Not your buddy, and read a book on it and educate yourself. Jake Shields Timothy Bradley, Diaz brothers, Mac Danzig and Jon Fitch are examples.

[Crassus]

Not your buddy, and read a book on it and educate yourself. Jake Shields Timothy Bradley, Diaz brothers, Mac Danzig and Jon Fitch are examples.

Not your pal, buddy.