Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman (August 18 2012)

[zoo youk]

hahaha. my wife cant watch anymore either. meisha tate arm getting twisted back was the final straw.

watched it again this morning and it gets worse every time i watch it...i dont know how her arm wasnt dangling off when she stood up

anyway...i got a parlay with Federer and Rousey too....basically if Rousey goes down im buried

[PunisherIND]

watched it again this morning and it gets worse every time i watch it...i dont know how her arm wasnt dangling off when she stood up

anyway...i got a parlay with Federer and Rousey too....basically if Rousey goes down im buried

gl my man, i also have a lot riding on rousey ITD.

[PunisherIND]

3 hrs to go. these foks need to stop worrying about which minute rousey will end the fight, and release props for the other fights.

[zoo youk]

thinking about throw some on this

Sat 8/18

2037 Kaufman wins by TKO/KO

+745

just to save myself a bit if Rousey does lose cause if she does thats the only way shes gonna, is the fight being stopped from punches.

Tate tagged Ronda pretty good a few times really early in their fight and i didnt like how she reacted initially..does Kaufmann pack more power behind her punches than Tate?

[NunyaBidness]

That's a terrible price, IMO. You can get +600 for her to win any way at all. If Rousey gasses out, there is a nonzero chance that Kaufman gets on top and chokes her out, or outpoints her from a distance to win a decision. Kaufman is very unlikely to pull off some sort of standing ko.

[bjpenn85]

yup! thats true..most underdogs that wins, win by dec anyway.

[Beelzebubzy]

yup! thats true..most underdogs that wins, win by dec anyway.

My play on Rosholt last night says otherwise

[BallaHolic777]

Im new to this so prob a dumb bet, but I like any other result +105 vs rousey in 1st rnd. I know all her wins I think are 1st round arm bars and I think thats probably how this ends again but I just think Kaufman can make it at least 1 rnd. Anybody giving Bowling or Brunson a chance?

[zoo youk]

Im new to this so prob a dumb bet, but I like any other result +105 vs rousey in 1st rnd. I know all her wins I think are 1st round arm bars and I think thats probably how this ends again but I just think Kaufman can make it at least 1 rnd. Anybody giving Bowling or Brunson a chance?

you can get 2nd round starts around +300

[BallaHolic777]

you can get 2nd round starts around +300

5D has it at +132 from what I see. Which still might be better, but the any other result vs rousey first round takes away the chance of Kaufman catching and finishing Rousey in the 1st.

[NunyaBidness]

you can get 2nd round starts around +300

Where? That'd be my biggest bet of the year.

[terpkeg]

Goes 1:00 into Round 1 at -515 seems like a strong play to me

[terpkeg]

More than 16% of time this ends within 1:00 minute????

[zoo youk]

my bad it is +132, not sure what i got it confused with.

2:59 to 2:00 remaining on clock
Sat 8/18		2071 Rousey wins 2:01 to 3:00 of round 1		+625
10:00PM		2072 Any other result i like that too considering they might be tied up in the clinch for a bit till Rousey gets the judo flip on her

[zoo youk]

1:59 to 1:00 remaining on clock
Sat 8/18		2073 Rousey wins 3:01 to 4:00 of round 1		+775
10:00PM		2074 Any other result		-1625
0:59 remaining on clock to start of round 2
Sat 8/18		2075 Rousey wins 4:01 to 5:00 of round 1		+925
10:00PM		2076 Any other result

[zoo youk]

^^^those are the best value IMO

[Vaughany]

My play on Rosholt last night says otherwise

Aye? Was tht another random event where odds were released just before?

[MMAbetMASTA]

I like Ricehouse but I wont be playing him basically due to the points you have referred to which is his lack of experience in comparison to Green and not having a true understanding of either fighters skills. I say this because Green has fought on short notice so many times that it's hard to gauge just how good he actually is. Again this fight is reasonably short notice and that is Green's specialty - he is Showtimes go to man when they need another fight/fighter on short notice. I believe he fought Dan Lauzon on a days notice for Affliction and the Gesias Cavalcante was short notice yet still took it to a very close decision. Fact is we haven't seen Rice step up on short notice and fight before so this may effect him.

With regards to the grappling, I guess people are saying Ricehouse will have his way with him because he beat Couture (who has proven he is no bum more recently after beating Conor Heun impressively and then Duarte), and then beat a submission specialist in Bill Cooper who is a BJJ black-belt and won Grappler's Quest numerous times.

Right on V, thanks a lot man for this feedback - solid insight, it helps...

[PunisherIND]

Aye? Was tht another random event where odds were released just before?

Yup. A few +300 and bigger dogs won.

I was getting the degen itch too. Almost made a parlay with juiced favorites that would have lost.

[NunyaBidness]

Yup. A few +300 and bigger dogs won.

I was getting the degen itch too. Almost made a parlay with juiced favorites that would have lost.

Unfortunately not the only one I bet on. Tickle-fade deactivate.

[PunisherIND]

5d released o/u's for the main card.

Derek Brunson/Ronaldo Souza* Over 2½ +120
Roger Bowling/Tarec Saffiedine* Over 2½ -125
Lumumba Sayers/Anthony Smith* Under 1½ -155
Ovince St. Preux/T.J. Cook* Over 1½ -135

[PunisherIND]

Unfortunately not the only one I bet on. Tickle-fade deactivate.

lol yea cant blame you there. tickle at -600 was NOT one of the favs i was interested in. and that was a b/s quick stoppage.

[Crassus]

That's a terrible price, IMO. You can get +600 for her to win any way at all. If Rousey gasses out, there is a nonzero chance that Kaufman gets on top and chokes her out, or outpoints her from a distance to win a decision. Kaufman is very unlikely to pull off some sort of standing ko.

I'm thinking Kaufman's gonna try to slam out of an armbar.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Doing more last minute research and I think a lot of these favs are being overvalued... I don't have the bankroll to fund any real plays tonight as nothing really sticks out aside from Green, but I think we are gonna see a couple big dogs come through.. Really like some of your plays on Smith over sayers (+280 is great value imo, I would set that line much closer to evens...) and also think osp at -600ish now is crazy... All the favs are rightful favs and I pick most of them to win, but man, there is some value in the dogs.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Mostly degen parlay action for me for this event - Heaviest vesting in Saffiedine (including a s/u play on him) and the Kaufman-Rousey not distance back when it was at -750... strictly degen action with some St Preux, Tate, and even Brunson thrown in one of the parlays.

GL brajes

[PunisherIND]

o/u's for the prelims released on 5d

[NunyaBidness]

lol yea cant blame you there. tickle at -600 was NOT one of the favs i was interested in. and that was a b/s quick stoppage.

I didn't mind the stoppage, but felt like I had the right side there. Not-Tickle got a quick takedown and was so confident in his guillotine that he gave up position to get it and then ended up on the bottom, would've rather seen him stay on top there.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Miletich dropped "cerebral"... That can only be a good sign.

[zoo youk]

holy shit look.at this methhead biker ref

[Imsmarterthanu]

These are 2 dykey looking women

[PunisherIND]

frank shamrock wants yamanaka to throw more tiger uppercuts. lol.

[NunyaBidness]

holy shit look.at this methhead biker ref

Congrats on your first evening watching mma.

[zoo youk]

what. not even close. your telling me yiuve seen this guy before?

[NunyaBidness]

Nut shot on Randamie.

[NunyaBidness]

what. not even close. your telling me yiuve seen this guy before?

a dozen times at least.