Refer back to my cormier/barnett - weidman/munoz example. That is my style, I'm not saying it's right or wrong, I'm telling you it's how I arrive at decisions.
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That is fine for YOU because you are an absolute moron who knows nothing about handicapping. You tried to push your brand of stupid advice onto other posters and were promptly corrected by those who know more than you (Nunya, not just me).
If you had just kept this to yourself, I wouldn't know just how clueless you actually are!Comment -
How inbred are you? Why are you throwing your own body into flames. The name of the person you keep bringing up "Nunya" has repeatedly called you a pathetic troll. He thinks of you as nothing more than dirt, because that's what you are. Hilarious that your trying to weave his name into this somehow thinking that it will help your case. Switch on your
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and I haven't pushed anything on to anyone, stop repeating yourself like an idiot. Go away little crippler, I can only own you for so long.Comment -
Calling me dirt doesn't change the fact you have no idea what you are talking about. Saying Nunya thinks im a troll, or a phaget, or a scumbag doesn't change that you were telling people not to make +EV plays.How inbred are you? Why are you throwing your own body into flames. The name of the person you keep bringing up "Nunya" has repeatedly called you a pathetic troll. He thinks of you as nothing more than dirt, because that's what you are. Hilarious that your trying to weave his name into this somehow thinking that it will help your case. Switch on your
It doesn't change the fact he CORRECTED YOU BECAUSE YOU WERE WRONG in doing so.
This is the most foolish logic I have ever heard. It's like saying "you're dirt so you're argument is invalid". It's called an ad hominem attack, I thought you knew what it was? It only makes you look more foolish.Comment -
nope wrong again, I've already repeated myself a trillion times saying I am not advising nor pushing nor telling anyone to do anything.
And you mentioned this awhile back but I guess you were to dumb to remember. Just because I insult you after adressing and answering your points does not make it an ad hominem. It would be an ad hominem if all I did was insult you and nothing else, but this is not the case.Comment -
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL LLLLLLLLL
I'm not denying anything mathematical wat are you talking about? How high are you right now?Comment -
You didn't address a single point! You don't even grasp the concept because your are actually dumb, or just will never admit you are wrong. Go read a book on it maybe?
You were basically saying in the posts that had to be corrected..."Yeah I know it's a winning play (+EV) but I don't think you should play it because I don't think it's a winning ENOUGH play". Makes no sense.
Im done. Read a book. Seriously.
inb4 insultsComment -
Shut your mouth and respond intelligently in context to the below statement De-phaggot:
Your seriously sitting here telling me that I'm stupid because I like to be selective about my plays and pass on close lines/fights with apparent but minimal +EV? Your saying that I need to play every-single line no matter how tiny the +EV rather than be shrewd with identifying exceptional value and passing on others?
Last edited by fosho14; 06-14-12, 04:53 PM.Comment -
Yes, you should play every play that is +EV. If your bankroll does not allow you to do this, then you should lower your bets. Because these plays are WINNING plays. You even attest to this yourself when you say they are +EV.
You are basically saying you don't want to risk the short term variance of making a winning play in the long term. If short term variance affects your bankroll and prevents you from making plays, then your bankroll is too small. Or, you bets are too big.
If you consider not taking free money "stupid", then yes, you are "stupid". There is no question you are a "pussy". You are also stupid for the things you said in the post (i.e likening betting the fight to playing roulette) and telling others NOT TO MAKE WINNING (+EV) plays.
You have nothing to justify your position other than the fact you are too SCARED to make WINNING PLAYS because of whatever reason, and you SUGGESTED that others do the same. I mean, I quoted the posts.
You urged everyone not to bet on the fight and said "I don't understand how ANYONE could make that (+EV) play." And I'm not putting those words in your mouth.
If you don't understand this, it means you are just a gambler looking for short term wins and really don't grasp the mathematical concepts of 'handicapping".Comment -
Something your not even taking into consideration De-phaggo... Nothing is truly a "winning play" until it actually "wins" and cashes after there is an outcome. If I bet on munoz right now because it is a "winning" play according to projected +EV and then he loses, it is no longer a winning play.Last edited by fosho14; 06-14-12, 05:10 PM.Comment -
The best part of Defaggot's queer escapades is when he shuts up for half an hour while he has a dick in his mouthComment -
Yo fosho, if its +EV its +EV, short term results/variance should never be considered.. +Ev means its mathematically proven to make money in the long run. Saying a +EV play can change to a -EV play depending on the outcome will not help your argument here as its basically impossible.
Just sayin,Comment -
lol. Oh deffaagot....when will you ever learnComment -
It's funny because this entire time I haven't been telling anyone to do anything like De-phaggo claims. I'm simply explaining why I don't go jumping on every +EV play and am careful with my spots, if that's what you or anyone here wants to do or thinks that is the best way, I'm not arguing with any of that. Play every single line that you think has the tiniest amount of +EV if you like, your obviously not mathematically wrong in doing so. Refer back to my example with Cormier/Barnett compared to Munoz/weidman. That's more my style. Both have +EV but one is worth the bet and the other is not IMO.Last edited by fosho14; 06-14-12, 05:32 PM.Comment -
All I'm saying is technically the post i quoted is flawed, the result is taken into account in an EV calculation already so it is meaningless after a +EV play has been made,
Just for example; You have capped a fighter at 50% to win a fight straight up, your book is giving you 2/1 (+200). If you are correct on your percentages then you win 2pts 50% of the time and lose 1pt 50% of the time meaning your EV on this bet is +0.5pts.
So half the time you will lose, this in no way changes the value of the play as we have calculated for these already.
When it comes to your next post, I don't think its bad to pass up thin spots, particularly if it means you can extract extra value from better spots later. However technically if you are capping a sport with such small margins and an expected ROI in single figures can you afford to pass up any edge?Comment -
, Nope I'm out.. Just thought my correction of his statement might be better received than for example if you had corrected him.
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yes please go watch baseball de-phaggot, its clear you've already forgot about the last 3 pages where you got continually slaughtered. A better question though is why are you even arguing about this stuff, you don't watch mma or place any wagers yourself. Goodbye and good riddance.Comment -
Please post 2-3 +EV plays coming up in MMA DeFaggo. Otherwise STFU.
You add nothing, just detract with your constant cynicism, trolling & flaming. Prove me wrong.Comment -
Wow you really just want to remain ignorant don't you. Another poster comes in to teach you but you still don't get it. You don't even respond to points, so if you think calling me a paraplegic and a troll in an attempt to invalidate mathematical facts "slaughtering me", then you definitely succeeded.Comment -
Umm because we wait to judge your performance based on the results? Derp!
Any critical capper on here worth their salt will post their own plays to prove their worth. Let's see what value you have in prognosticating MMA considering how critical you are of others.
Post your +EV plays.
Simple challenge: put up or shut up.
You're not gonna pussy out now are you?Comment -
Nope. That's not the proposed bet but figures you'd try to weasel out of it.
If you lose - when you lose - your proposed bet you'll just go back to your Sideloaded account to troll. Imnotdumberthanyou.
Why are you so scared to post just 2-3 bets with +EV? Hmm, scared of being exposed for the hack you are?
Talk to me when you have the BALLS to post 3 plays for public scrutiny.Comment -
i'm not sideloaded. You can have the mods IP ban me. I stand to gain NOTHING from your challenge. I have already posted winners including a +750 and you don't care.
I would love to have any type of contest with you. If you don't want to stop making videos (lol) I will bet money with you.Comment -
Where you at? I have no problem sending V paypal. Do you wanna go a G?
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Why did this thread have to turn into Sherdog...Comment -
You guys are pathetic...
and this is coming from someone who just lost everything he has and more.Comment
