Wanna Bet's Play of the Week Volume IV: Wanderlei Silva vs Rich Franklin

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Here it is boys. Biggest straight play I've made to-date. Feel very strongly about this fight: we're talking 22 minutes strong!!

Part I (3 minutes): Watch this one if you have ADHD +/- 'the retard'.

Part II (14 minutes): Strictly for tha C.A.P.P.A.Z

Part III (5 minutes): Summary & +EV analysis

If you're a serious capper, check out all three. There's a lot of info to absorb.


POUND! POUND! POUND!

[Vitooch]

Good luck. Not sure if I'm sold on this play. Will have to rewatch their first fight.

[Vitooch]

You've put more thought in this fight, and done more research but I have some initial concerns...One of Franklin's strengths is pinning opponents against the cage and working in the clinch. As good as Wanderlei's cardio has looked, this type of grinding style that Franklin has been successful with is very physically tolling. No other fighter Wanderlei has faced has employed this type of strategy that tests your cardio to this extent. I believe the style and pace both fighters normally set will lead them to get tired again like in their first fight. They will be transitioning from striking to clinch to wrestling to BJJ. It seems to have the making of a another ugly, bloody, entertaining scrap. Their fighting styles at this point of their careers seem to clash in a way that will lead to another tiresome fight Not sure if I will be willing to lay money on either fight if this is the case.

[Kaladarus]

Very solid breakdown. I feel more confident with the 22minutes of work and the Wanderlei entrance music.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

You've put more thought in this fight, and done more research but I have some initial concerns...One of Franklin's strengths is pinning opponents against the cage and working in the clinch. As good as Wanderlei's cardio has looked, this type of grinding style that Franklin has been successful with is very physically tolling. No other fighter Wanderlei has faced has employed this type of strategy that tests your cardio to this extent. I believe the style and pace both fighters normally set will lead them to get tired again like in their first fight. They will be transitioning from striking to clinch to wrestling to BJJ. It seems to have the making of a another ugly, bloody, entertaining scrap. Their fighting styles at this point of their careers seem to clash in a way that will lead to another tiresome fight Not sure if I will be willing to lay money on either fight if this is the case.

OK but who is to say whether Franklin can keep up a grueling pace.
1) 16 month layoff between fights. Major ring rust concerns.
2) Turning 38, didn't outpace Forrest, didn't KO him either and most guys who can sting opponents will force Forrest to wilt (tapped to Rashad GnP, flailed to an Anderson jab that dropped him, dropped by a grazing right hand and turtled up to Shogun's GnP)... This is another pearl on whether Rich really can hurt & then finish Wanderlei and I strongly question this if he couldn't pass the Forrest litmus test.
3) Weight cut will really tax Rich. He has to go down to 190 from 205. Wanderlei is going up from 185. The shoe is on the other foot for this fight.
4) Rich is coming off of surgery for a torn labrum. That is a major red flag for strength & endurance exercises like grappling/clinching which will fatigue the shoulder quickly (see GSP/BJ II, round 1 strategy). This leaves Rich exposed. He drops his left arm when he throws left kicks and as he gets fatigued, playing right into Wanderlei's trump card of spamming a right hook.

Wanderlei was at his absolute worst at that fight. This was prior to his reconstructive facial surgery. He cut 12 pounds in a day, Rich had an easy cut. Rich broke Wand's nose in round one. He was fighting in Germany not at home in Brazil. Yet Rich still couldn't put a gassed Wanderlei away and BARELY won a decision against a guy who couldn't push the pace in the final minute of rounds.

Suppose two things: (1) If that fight was in Brazil, what would the scorecards be? Rewatch the fight. Even against a worn down Wand, he could have very easily stolen a decision. But who cares because...
(2) Transpose Wand 2.0 (the guy who pushed the pace late in rounds 1/2/3 & 1/2 versus Bisping & Le) versus Franklin in that fight (and I'd argue that Franklin is much worse off for this fight than back at UFC 99 for all of the aforementioned reasons). Who steals those rounds on neutral territory like Germany in that scenario let alone with 25,000 screaming Brazilian fans and biased judging?

Before I really intricately broke down this fight I thought like most. Wand is a liability for the most part now. Rich won the first fight. The smart play is Rich at anything less than steep odds.

But that is the sucker play that early action bettors took because they saw Franklin at +odds and Rich at slightly dog odds *has* to be +EV if he won the first fight. They didn't have the time/bother to rewatch & analyze the fight, progressions/regressions in both fighters since, they didn't assess who has ever KOed Wanderlei (Belfort berzerker, Cro Cop head kick, Hendo H-bomb, Rampage hook, and Leben uppercut), they didn't consider the bias of the fight being in Brazil nor that the fight will be 5-Rounds which it's not supposed to be for a late replacement who is at a disadvantage training for 3-rounds just a couple of weeks later against Cung (as Ariel stated on his show).

People are so fearful of Wanderlei getting KOed by a wind tunnel that Wanderlei has become egregiously undervalued; those people are the bettors who just see the trees not the forest. They don't see Wand getting knocked off balance by a spinning back fist versus Cung in round one (not ZOMG he's rocked! according to Joe) nor do they mention that Wanderlei must still have a decent chin in actuality if he ate a huge right by Cung in round two and didn't flinch. Chuck would've been out from that punch. Rich, like just about anyone these days, was able to KO Chuck with one punch on the chin. Rich can't KO Wanderlei with one strike IMHO. Wand was tremendous resiliency when he gets hit by guys with sub-KO power.

I think Wand can win this fight everywhere (berserker KO on the feet, trip TD/GnP, dropping for a sub or winning a flashy decision). I think Rich has no better than a 35% chance here. A max 25% shot at a TKO (if Wand had a camp setback, illness, etc. which hurts him as the fight goes deeper or, less likely, a flash KO early given his stylistic changes+Rich's power) and 10% shot at winning at least 3 rounds on the scorecards in Brazil.

So Rich is a TERRIBLE play at -150 to -200 IMHO.

[Vitooch]

I agree that Rich at -150 is a terrible play also. I'm probably not going to touch this fight, unless Franklin gets to plus money, which is probably unlikely. But things like Rich's size advantage, his clinchwork, and his striking defense may be enough to grind an ugly decision. I think the Franklin that fought Forrest is a thoughtful and technical enough fighter to handle Wanderlei's power and execute a smart gameplan.

[Vitooch]

The biased judging is a major concern for me. Another reason why I would lean Silva, but I have made it a priority to pick my shots a little more carefully, so I'm not completely on board.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

How is he going to win an ugly 5-round decision in Brazil?

If he stalls, the place will bombard Rich with boos and force the ref to quickly stand them up if Rich is stalling from the top or separate the clinch.

Wanderlei is the flashy fighter pushing the pace late in rounds. He will almost unquestionably win all of the close rounds with his aesthetics which will make the crowd go nuts.

Name me one American who has won a decision against a Brazilian in Brazil. I'll await your answer...

[Luca Fury]

I like Franklin here. Even before Wanderlei gassed the first time, Rich was out-techniquing him, even knocked him down.

Wanderlei won't KO him and won't out-cardio or out-technique him. Even his his prime, Wanderlei had issues with technical strikers, he just never fought many of them. My only concern is bad judges since the crowd will cheer everything Wand does.

I would love Wand to get a win over Rich, especially by KO, but don't see it happening. I'll probably toss Franklin at around -200 in a small parlay to get odds of even money or better. Wish he was +115, like he opened, but I knew the line would flip. Sportsbook is always TERRIBLE at opening in lines, and this is another example of that.

[illmatick]

yeah, I think you're giving Odessa too much credit for opening the line.

You make a few decent points but it's Franklin or pass for me. Not worth a big play either way, imo.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I like Franklin here. Even before Wanderlei gassed the first time, Rich was out-techniquing him, even knocked him down.

Wanderlei won't KO him and won't out-cardio or out-technique him. Even his his prime, Wanderlei had issues with technical strikers, he just never fought many of them. My only concern is bad judges since the crowd will cheer everything Wand does.

I would love Wand to get a win over Rich, especially by KO, but don't see it happening. I'll probably toss Franklin at around -200 in a small parlay to get odds of even money or better. Wish he was +115, like he opened, but I knew the line would flip. Sportsbook is always TERRIBLE at opening in lines, and this is another example of that.

Right... because he had a lot of trouble with Bisping & Le, two of the better technical strikers not named Anderson at 185.

His trouble is against power punchers not technical strikers. Why? Because everyone can land on Wanderlei eventually; it just matters how much power you have to either finish him or simply knock him on his ass before he gets up, clear headed, and pushes right back at you.

I don't care if people love or hate this pick. I'm just laying all of the chips on the table here and telling people why I see a tremendous opportunity at getting +150 on your money in this spot.

I'm a very risk averse bettor in general. I hedge a lot. I arb quite a bit. I don't push my limits on units. But I feel quite comfortable risking 10% of my bankroll in this spot. If there's a great prop hedge or arb, it'll be hard to turn down but I have NO problem making a bet this size on Wanderlei. In fact I've increased my position to 14% since I shot the video when I revisiting some footage and listened to Rich's candid interview with Ariel.

[Vitooch]

Judging is certainly a concern for me. If this fight wasn't in Brazil, I would probably take Franklin at anything under -150. With that being said, I think Franklin is that much smarter and that much more technical that a decision win in Brazil is still a very tangible possibility. Franklin has proven to be a VERY tough fighter to finish, and I cannot see Wanderlei doing so. This fight will probably go to a decision, and it will be probably be Franklin who truly deserves to win in the hands of unbiased viewers. I would take this risk even in Brazil if the line gets more favorable for Rich.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

yeah, I think you're giving Odessa too much credit for opening the line.

You make a few decent points but it's Franklin or pass for me. Not worth a big play either way, imo.

Umm didn't you cap the fight on your SBR breakdown based on how you analyzed/scored the first fight? People are going to get buried betting Rich as a 2:1 favourite using this strategy.

I understand if people are worried about making a big play in general here - I'm not - but a sizable play on Rich is just atrocious IMO.

[Vitooch]

Right... because he had a lot of trouble with Bisping & Le, two of the better technical strikers not named Anderson at 185.

His trouble is against power punchers not technical strikers. Why? Because everyone can land on Wanderlei eventually; it just matters how much power you have to either finish him or simply knock him on his ass before he gets up, clear headed, and pushes right back at you.

I don't care if people love or hate this pick. I'm just laying all of the chips on the table here and telling people why I see a tremendous opportunity at getting +150 on your money in this spot.

I'm a very risk averse bettor in general. I hedge a lot. I arb quite a bit. I don't push my limits on units. But I feel quite comfortable risking 10% of my bankroll in this spot. If there's a great prop hedge or arb, it'll be hard to turn down but I have NO problem making a bet this size on Wanderlei. In fact I've increased my position to 14% since I shot the video when I revisiting some footage and listened to Rich's candid interview with Ariel.

Cung Le and Bisping are very different fighters from Franklin. Franklin was able to handle the power of Henderson and Wanderlei. He's a smart, technical experienced fighter who is confident in his abilities to avoid the powerful, yet sometimes predictable striking of a Wanerlei. Bisping tends to shy away from the power punching of his more heavy handed opponents.

[Vitooch]

Also Franklin is bigger and stronger than those aforementioned MW's. Grappling with the 190 MW/LHW will be much more tiring than the MW Bisping who wasn't really able to establish his wrestling game.

[illmatick]

It's just a routine I usually follow for rematches, doesn't mean that' s the only reason I like Rich here.

I did the same thing for last weeks rematch between Mccall and Johnson, though obviously that was a bit more relevant considering the time differential between the first and second fights. http://www.sbrforum.com/ufc/free-pic...tions-a-25103/

U People are going to get buried betting Rich as a 2:1 favourite using this strategy.

Buried? lol. I could give a shit about burying anyone who blindly tails me.

Honestly wouldn't surprise me a whole lot if Wandy squeaked out a decision here. Personally I'd want something closer to +165 before even considering it, though

[Vaughany]

I like Franklin here. Even before Wanderlei gassed the first time, Rich was out-techniquing him, even knocked him down.

Wanderlei won't KO him and won't out-cardio or out-technique him. Even his his prime, Wanderlei had issues with technical strikers, he just never fought many of them. My only concern is bad judges since the crowd will cheer everything Wand does.

I would love Wand to get a win over Rich, especially by KO, but don't see it happening. I'll probably toss Franklin at around -200 in a small parlay to get odds of even money or better. Wish he was +115, like he opened, but I knew the line would flip. Sportsbook is always TERRIBLE at opening in lines, and this is another example of that.

I wouldnt rule out Wand TKO/KO'ing Rich, if Belfort and clip him and drop him then dont see why Wanderlei cant in a flurry. Obviously Franklin shouldnt allow tht to happen with how smart he is but Franklin's going to be rusty and seems to me he is starting to show his age...he looked very slow in the Forrrest fight

[Vaughany]

Fact it's 5 rounds has made me a lot more interested. I'll probably play each to win by TKO/KO and fight to end by KO where I can get it. And if I do play moneyline will most certainly be Wanderlei as I see this closer to 50/50

[illmatick]

Was it Jorge Gurgel who was telling Rich he was up going into the final round? hate that kid.

I agree , his performance against Forrest is troubling. Still though, when it comes to range of motion, reflexes and timing, I'd say Wandy has deteriorated a bit more in those areas.

[Vitooch]

The Rich/Forrest fight was clash of two very similar fighting styles. That was destined to be a lackluster fight. Both guys are conservative and technical and neither took any risks. I don't think Franklin looked any worse in that fight than Wanderlei did against Leben, where his striking defense was horrible.

[Luca Fury]

Right... because he had a lot of trouble with Bisping & Le, two of the better technical strikers not named Anderson at 185.

His trouble is against power punchers not technical strikers. Why? Because everyone can land on Wanderlei eventually; it just matters how much power you have to either finish him or simply knock him on his ass before he gets up, clear headed, and pushes right back at you.

I don't care if people love or hate this pick. I'm just laying all of the chips on the table here and telling people why I see a tremendous opportunity at getting +150 on your money in this spot.

I'm a very risk averse bettor in general. I hedge a lot. I arb quite a bit. I don't push my limits on units. But I feel quite comfortable risking 10% of my bankroll in this spot. If there's a great prop hedge or arb, it'll be hard to turn down but I have NO problem making a bet this size on Wanderlei. In fact I've increased my position to 14% since I shot the video when I revisiting some footage and listened to Rich's candid interview with Ariel.

Cung Le WAS giving Wanderlei trouble. He knocked him down and then, as Cung always does, gassed after one round and got TKO'd at the end of the round. Le was winning up until the TKO.

As for Bisping, he was winning all the rounds, but Wand flurried at the end of each and hurt Bisping, thus stealing them. But minus the 20 second flurries, Wand was losing clearly.

And on top of that, we've already seen Rich vs Wand and even while Silva was fresh, Rich was clearly better. Not much has changed since their first fight.

I wouldnt rule out Wand TKO/KO'ing Rich, if Belfort and clip him and drop him then dont see why Wanderlei cant in a flurry. Obviously Franklin shouldnt allow tht to happen with how smart he is but Franklin's going to be rusty and seems to me he is starting to show his age...he looked very slow in the Forrrest fight

Wand hit Rich with the best he had in the first fight, but couldn't KO him or even drop him.

[Vitooch]

Fight goes to a decision is +340 on 5Dimes...thinking there is value there.

[gabe]

Silva should be +250 - +300 IMO

[Luca Fury]

Fight goes to a decision is +340 on 5Dimes...thinking there is value there.

That's crazy! Both men hit each other with big shots in the first fight, yet couldn't get a finish -- or even close to one -- in 15 minutes. Rich isn't that big a finisher and neither is Wanderlei these days, so that extra 10 minutes should jump the line that much. +340 is WASY off. Should be at most +150, IMO.

[illmatick]

Silva should be +250 - +300 IMO

[Vaughany]

Cung Le WAS giving Wanderlei trouble. He knocked him down and then, as Cung always does, gassed after one round and got TKO'd at the end of the round. Le was winning up until the TKO.

As for Bisping, he was winning all the rounds, but Wand flurried at the end of each and hurt Bisping, thus stealing them. But minus the 20 second flurries, Wand was losing clearly.

And on top of that, we've already seen Rich vs Wand and even while Silva was fresh, Rich was clearly better. Not much has changed since their first fight.



Wand hit Rich with the best he had in the first fight, but couldn't KO him or even drop him.

Fight was 3 years ago tho, both of their chins, or at least their ability to take punishment in general has deteriorated considerably IMO.

[illmatick]

Agree to an extent,especially with Wandy ..... but what makes you think Franklin's resilience has deteriorated considerably since the first fight?

IMO, The shot against Belfort had more to do with the placement of the punch rather than a decline in Franklin's resistance.

[GunShard]

It's up to Franklin to perform like he did the first time they fought.

[Vitooch]

It's up to Silva to perform better than he did the first time they fought.

[PunisherIND]

That's crazy! Both men hit each other with big shots in the first fight, yet couldn't get a finish -- or even close to one -- in 15 minutes. Rich isn't that big a finisher and neither is Wanderlei these days, so that extra 10 minutes should jump the line that much. +340 is WASY off. Should be at most +150, IMO.

i believe it opened around +150 and got bet up to +340. crazy.

[PunisherIND]

It's just a routine I usually follow for rematches, doesn't mean that' s the only reason I like Rich here.

I did the same thing for last weeks rematch between Mccall and Johnson, though obviously that was a bit more relevant considering the time differential between the first and second fights. http://www.sbrforum.com/ufc/free-pic...tions-a-25103/

Ill, didnt realize you were the guy who does SBR breakdowns. Much respect dude. Always on point.

[Digo]

UFC 147 in BH Brazil (I will be there ). Forget about the fight goes to the distance guys. Wanderlei already said that "he will give a show to his fans" a thousand times in Brazilian tv shows. This is the only thing that he cares at this point of his career. I bet that this will be a short fight (first or second round at most). Wand will try to KO Rich with no caution, i believe it will be like Wand vs Leben, maybe not so fast, but 5 rounds... NO WAY.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

UFC 147 in BH Brazil (I will be there ). Forget about the fight goes to the distance guys. Wanderlei already said that "he will give a show to his fans" a thousand times in Brazilian tv shows. This is the only thing that he cares at this point of his career. I bet that this will be a short fight (first or second round at most). Wand will try to KO Rich with no caution, i believe it will be like Wand vs Leben, maybe not so fast, but 5 rounds... NO WAY.

While it's certainly more likely that the fight doesn't go 5 rounds than it does, Wand did give a show to his Australian fans by going berserker in the final 30 seconds of each round versus Bisping, blowing the roof off of that place and even did the same in San Jose in as "hostile" a territory as you'll see the fan favourite Wand in, fighting in Cung's backyard. The fans went from chanting Cung early in round one to being in a frenzy once Wand started landing late in round one and again with a minute left in round two.

Wand can definitely get the crowd buzzing for protracted periods by circling off for the first few minutes of each round to avoid damage & pace himself (like he's done lately versus Cung & Bisping) and then put the pedal to the metal with under a minute left to drive the crowd crazy at the end of the round and during the minute break which will act to sway the judges as they fill out their scorecards between rounds.

Move over GSP; Wand 2.0 is an elite points strategist. Yeah I went there.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Ill, didnt realize you were the guy who does SBR breakdowns. Much respect dude. Always on point.

Ill's an elite capper. He's on point the vast majority of the time.

This isn't one of those times though...

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Cung Le WAS giving Wanderlei trouble. He knocked him down and then, as Cung always does, gassed after one round and got TKO'd at the end of the round. Le was winning up until the TKO.

As for Bisping, he was winning all the rounds, but Wand flurried at the end of each and hurt Bisping, thus stealing them. But minus the 20 second flurries, Wand was losing clearly.

And on top of that, we've already seen Rich vs Wand and even while Silva was fresh, Rich was clearly better. Not much has changed since their first fight.



Wand hit Rich with the best he had in the first fight, but couldn't KO him or even drop him.

Wow. Just wow.

I'm going to respectfully STRONGLY disagree with this.

I'm going to ask you to either reconsider that line or rewatch the fight. Wanderlei was up at least 20-18 and more likely 20-17 if Le had been able to survive the second round onslaught while Wanderlei pounded him out with hammer fists while grabbing that single leg. Le had a nice sequence in the first three minutes of round one, although he got tagged by Wand once early as well, and then got swarmed and almost finished with 20 seconds left of round one. I'm not talking about how it *should* be scored but how it *would* be scored. Le got demolished in round two, a 10-8 by most with Wand pounding him out for 10 seconds longer.

From a damage POV and from a 10 point must MMA scoring POV (not even taking into account the crowd impression/biased judging that needs to be incorporated into the Wand-Rich capping model), Wand was up HUGE on the scorecards and would have won a decision regardless of who won round 3.